Resisting Climate Hysteria

noco said:

Where have all the alarmist gone on this thread in the past couple of days?

Have they gone into hiding?

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Seldom does a skilled artisan, craftsmen, academic or professional sit down with the village idiot to discuss the refined aspects of their specialty, something they have made their best effort to understand and critique. No you start at the very beginning, more likely to help the other to unwrap their sandwiches and intimate the social advantage of doing up their flies.
There is though a limit to patience and when against the best efforts; we cut them into nice shapes, we make some savoury and some sweet we hand them to you all on the flattened paper bag….. but still you insist on wearing them as a hat, djellaba to maybe calm down a wizz frizz .

Rest bite, just a little rest bite.

orr said:

Seldom does a skilled artisan, craftsmen, academic or professional sit down with the village idiot to discuss the refined aspects of their specialty, something they have made their best effort to understand and critique. No you start at the very beginning, more likely to help the other to unwrap their sandwiches and intimate the social advantage of doing up their flies.
There is though a limit to patience and when against the best efforts; we cut them into nice shapes, we make some savoury and some sweet we hand them to you all on the flattened paper bag….. but still you insist on wearing them as a hat, djellaba to maybe calm down a wizz frizz .

Rest bite, just a little rest bite.

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I'm not sure what you are putting in your sandwiches orr but I suggest you lay off the sauce

I watched a bit of QandA last night and SHY is still raving on about Global Warming.

Will somebody please tell her we are heading into MINI ICE AGE and it is about the SUN.

noco said:

I watched a bit of QandA last night and SHY is still raving on about Global Warming.

Will somebody please tell her we are heading into MINI ICE AGE and it is about the SUN.

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Not too many believe you Champ but admire your tireless ramping.

Would be good if you could put up a reference that I can get into to evaluate. Or is it just vague

explod said:

Not too many believe you Champ but admire your tireless ramping.

Would be good if you could put up a reference that I can get into to evaluate. Or is it just vague

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The reference regarding the decrease in sunspot activity is here

http://www.livescience.com/51597-maunder-minimum-mini-ice-age.html

Of course the premise upon which a mini ice age could occur is that there is no anthropogenic global warming So if we wern't warming up at a great rate of knots already - it could get cooler.

In fact the effect of anthropogenic global warming far overwhelms the effects of reduced sunspot activity.

explod said:

Not too many believe you Champ but admire your tireless ramping.

Would be good if you could put up a reference that I can get into to evaluate. Or is it just vague

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Please go back to post # 8148...You probably did not bother to read it....I would say there are billions of people around the world who have the common sense to understand and believe what is really happening instead of the fictitious argument and lies being promoted by many alarmists...

The lies like there will never be enough water to fill our dams

The Arctic ice is melting at a rapid rate and the seas will rise to the height of an 8 story building.....The seas are rising at a rapid rate and drowning all the Pacific Islands.

Greenland's polar bears are going to die.

The Great Barrier Reef is all but dead and all caused by CO2 emissions.

We will all be experiencing greater droughts, floods, fires and cyclones.

And you believe all this rubbish.

noco said:

Please go back to post # 8148...You probably did not bother to read it....I would say there are billions of people around the world who have the common sense to understand and believe what is really happening instead of the fictitious argument and lies being promoted by many alarmists...

The lies like there will never be enough water to fill our dams

The Arctic ice is melting at a rapid rate and the seas will rise to the height of an 8 story building.....The seas are rising at a rapid rate and drowning all the Pacific Islands.

Greenland's polar bears are going to die.

The Great Barrier Reef is all but dead and all caused by CO2 emissions.

We will all be experiencing greater droughts, floods, fires and cyclones.

And you believe all this rubbish.

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I know it is happenning. Talk to farmers noco. We can see it.

I did read your post 8148 and replied in post 8149 to which you have not responded.

explod said:

I know it is happenning. Talk to farmers noco. We can see it.

I did read your post 8148 and replied in post 8149 to which you have not responded.

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What would you like me to talk to farmers about?

So what did I have to respond to when you in fact agreeing with me about cooling and not Global Warming.

I don't get you.

noco said:

What would you like me to talk to farmers about?

So what did I have to respond to when you in fact agreeing with me about cooling and not Global Warming.

I don't get you.

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You don't want to is more to the point.

The following from Jeffrey Masters Ph. D. Director of Meteorology Chicargo:-

what about global warming caused by the sun?

Some scientists have theorized that increases in solar output are responsible for a significant portion of the observed global warming. For instance Scapetta & West (2006) estimated that 25 - 35% of global warming in the 1980 - 2000 period was attributable to solar variability. Other scientists (blue reference to them) disagree, finding no evidence of global warming due to solar activity changes...

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And the article goes on.

However, even if we do experience a servere ice age it will still have no effect on the continued increase in the changing chemistry on the planet, our oceans, the effects on our health and loss of food productivity all caused by the burning of fossil fuels. And the underlying heating will still return after this perceived ice age. What of our people then noco.

explod said:

You don't want to is more to the point.

The following from Jeffrey Masters Ph. D. Director of Meteorology Chicargo:-


And the article goes on.

However, even if we do experience a servere ice age it will still have no effect on the continued increase in the changing chemistry on the planet, our oceans, the effects on our health and loss of food productivity all caused by the burning of fossil fuels. And the underlying heating will still return after this perceived ice age. What of our people then noco.

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I would happy to talk to farmers on any subject...Drought...Floods...Fire....I told you some time ago I worked in the south west of Queensland in the early 1950's and have experienced the lot...So you name it.

More fossil fuel = more CO2 = better plant life.

Do you know what he is talking about with the changing chemistry of the planet etc.

Our food production in Australia is at an all time high.

Our people will still survive as they have done for centuries.

The carbon tax is back, sort of.

Average electricity prices (wholesale) for 2013-14 (with carbon tax):

NSW = $ 52.26 / MWh

Qld = $58.42

SA = $61.71

Tas = $41.98

Vic = $51.49

Average prices for 2015-16 (no carbon tax)

NSW = $51.60

Qld = $59.99

SA = $61.67

Tas = $102.70

Vic = $46.14

So whatever nasty things were going to happen with the carbon tax will now be happening without it. The only thing not happening is a reduction in CO2 emissions which have gone up.

Why the high prices? There's a few factors but in short:

All states = the Qld LNG plants ramping up has sent the gas price through the roof and made gas uneconomic for baseload generation.

Reduced capacity of coal-fired plants because their owners decided to close them.

In some cases the (private) owners of coal-fired plants are operating them well below capacity. Reasons = either to force the price up and in a couple of cases they look to be having operational troubles (that happens when you cut costs to the bone....).

In Tasmania's case = well we had a spot of bother that has been well covered elsewhere. Worst drought on record and the cable broke so we ended up using a lot of gas and some diesel too. That said, the price spike in Tas was largely notional since Hydro took the hit financially on behalf of all but a very small number of consumers who opted to be in the spot market.

For the past few weeks it's even worse. Prices around $100 in Qld and Tas, a bit more in NSW and Vic and a whopping $418.04 in SA. There's diesel generation (feeding the main grid) running in SA recently even in the middle of the night which says it all really.

And what about gas? Well that's ridiculously expensive these days, far more costly that it has ever been before in the Australian east coast (including SA and Tas) market.

I wonder if all those opposed to the carbon tax and politicians associated with it will now be directing their efforts to the evils of free markets?

More seriously, there goes another thing that once made Australia internationally competitive. Cheap energy? Not in this country we haven't. We blew that one and somehow managed to not even end up with anyone making much profit in doing so.

Smurf1976 said:

The carbon tax is back, sort of.

Average electricity prices (wholesale) for 2013-14 (with carbon tax):

NSW = $ 52.26 / MWh

Qld = $58.42

SA = $61.71

Tas = $41.98

Vic = $51.49

Average prices for 2015-16 (no carbon tax)

NSW = $51.60

Qld = $59.99

SA = $61.67

Tas = $102.70

Vic = $46.14

So whatever nasty things were going to happen with the carbon tax will now be happening without it. The only thing not happening is a reduction in CO2 emissions which have gone up.




Why the high prices? There's a few factors but in short:

All states = the Qld LNG plants ramping up has sent the gas price through the roof and made gas uneconomic for baseload generation.

Reduced capacity of coal-fired plants because their owners decided to close them.

In some cases the (private) owners of coal-fired plants are operating them well below capacity. Reasons = either to force the price up and in a couple of cases they look to be having operational troubles (that happens when you cut costs to the bone....).

In Tasmania's case = well we had a spot of bother that has been well covered elsewhere. Worst drought on record and the cable broke so we ended up using a lot of gas and some diesel too. That said, the price spike in Tas was largely notional since Hydro took the hit financially on behalf of all but a very small number of consumers who opted to be in the spot market.

For the past few weeks it's even worse. Prices around $100 in Qld and Tas, a bit more in NSW and Vic and a whopping $418.04 in SA. There's diesel generation (feeding the main grid) running in SA recently even in the middle of the night which says it all really.

And what about gas? Well that's ridiculously expensive these days, far more costly that it has ever been before in the Australian east coast (including SA and Tas) market.

I wonder if all those opposed to the carbon tax and politicians associated with it will now be directing their efforts to the evils of free markets?

More seriously, there goes another thing that once made Australia internationally competitive. Cheap energy? Not in this country we haven't. We blew that one and somehow managed to not even end up with anyone making much profit in doing so.

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But the carbon tax was removed almost 3 years ago so I guess one would have to expect some increases with or without the carbon tax.

I cannot see rhyme nor reason why Tasmania has increased so much......That is one hell of a jump....Is there any explanation for such a large increase?

Smurf1976 said:

More seriously, there goes another thing that once made Australia internationally competitive. Cheap energy? Not in this country we haven't. We blew that one and somehow managed to not even end up with anyone making much profit in doing so.

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It seems to be the Australian way.

Smurf, do you have any figures on the wholesale cost in other countries?

Smurf1976 said:

The carbon tax is back, sort of.

Average electricity prices (wholesale) for 2013-14 (with carbon tax):

NSW = $ 52.26 / MWh

Qld = $58.42

SA = $61.71

Tas = $41.98

Vic = $51.49

Average prices for 2015-16 (no carbon tax)

NSW = $51.60

Qld = $59.99

SA = $61.67

Tas = $102.70

Vic = $46.14

So whatever nasty things were going to happen with the carbon tax will now be happening without it. The only thing not happening is a reduction in CO2 emissions which have gone up.

Why the high prices? There's a few factors but in short:

All states = the Qld LNG plants ramping up has sent the gas price through the roof and made gas uneconomic for baseload generation.

Reduced capacity of coal-fired plants because their owners decided to close them.

In some cases the (private) owners of coal-fired plants are operating them well below capacity. Reasons = either to force the price up and in a couple of cases they look to be having operational troubles (that happens when you cut costs to the bone....).

In Tasmania's case = well we had a spot of bother that has been well covered elsewhere. Worst drought on record and the cable broke so we ended up using a lot of gas and some diesel too. That said, the price spike in Tas was largely notional since Hydro took the hit financially on behalf of all but a very small number of consumers who opted to be in the spot market.

For the past few weeks it's even worse. Prices around $100 in Qld and Tas, a bit more in NSW and Vic and a whopping $418.04 in SA. There's diesel generation (feeding the main grid) running in SA recently even in the middle of the night which says it all really.

And what about gas? Well that's ridiculously expensive these days, far more costly that it has ever been before in the Australian east coast (including SA and Tas) market.

I wonder if all those opposed to the carbon tax and politicians associated with it will now be directing their efforts to the evils of free markets?

More seriously, there goes another thing that once made Australia internationally competitive. Cheap energy? Not in this country we haven't. We blew that one and somehow managed to not even end up with anyone making much profit in doing so.

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Evils of Free Markets? No way.

If anything, they'd be saying things could be worst. Like Blair... if you think it's bad now, it could have been a lot worst. How? blah.

The LNG companies will now ramp up their campaign for "state energy security", and that if we want cheap electricity, we'd better allow more exploration and more drilling to bring supplies online.

In other news, major solar-powered electricity in the US, I think, are producing cheaper electricity than gas-powered plants now.

And a couple of years back (under the coalition) we let China into huge gas reserves for less than 6 cents a litre.

noco said:

But the carbon tax was removed almost 3 years ago so I guess one would have to expect some increases with or without the carbon tax.

I cannot see rhyme nor reason why Tasmania has increased so much......That is one hell of a jump....Is there any explanation for such a large increase?

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My point is that we're right back to the same electricity prices we had with the carbon tax, the Qld LNG plants being the primary cause of that along with a few other factors mostly related to market activity. Meanwhile we've now got gas prices 3 or 4 times their historic level and far higher than we had with the carbon tax.

So if the carbon tax was going to ruin Australia and cost households and business a fortune, well that's exactly what's happening right now without it.

We've seen massive political debate about the carbon tax but the same players haven't said a word about what's actually happened since. I sense a bias on the part of the major parties, particularly the Coalition, there. If an extra $20 per MWh was going to kill us economically then why aren't they screaming now when the same thing has happened? The silence is deafening.

And what about the massive increase in gas prices? That's going to seriously impact some industrial users, there's one in Qld already contemplating a permanent shutdown. Again all we hear from politicians is silence.

It's not as though this is a minor issue, the cost of energy has been a major theme in Australian politics for an extended period in the context of the carbon tax. It seems rather odd to me that apparently we can't afford higher prices if the money is going to government but somehow it's no problem if the money is going to a few private companies? Interesting to say the least.

Tasmania - that was (hopefully) a one-off situation due to major infrastructure failure (Basslink) taking 6 months to repair and coinciding with severe drought which caused some panic about the hydro system's ability to makeup the shortfall in supply with Basslink broken. End result was storage levels falling to 12.8%, the all time lowest on record (the previous low was 14.2% back in 1968) and we ended up hiring about 150 diesel generators and hooking them up to the grid in order to conserve what was left. The lights stayed on but market prices reflect that supply situation during half of the past financial year. That said, virtually nobody in Tas is actually paying the spot price unless by choice (and that's limited to a handfull of business users) with Hydro Tas taking the financial hit for the saga (about $180 million). Basslink has since been fixed, the diesels are no longer in use and heavy rain has lifted storage to about 30% so there's no longer any crisis. Some of the diesel generators are presently being removed and sent back to their owners, the rest being kept "just in case" until storage levels increase further.

wayneL said:

It seems to be the Australian way.

Smurf, do you have any figures on the wholesale cost in other countries?

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Yup ....

MORE than a million NSW households are paying more for electricity than any other developed nation.

New research by a leading economics consultancy reveals these customers, who are on non-discounted prices known as “standing offers” are being slugged about 32 cents per kilowatt hour, compared to shivering Swedes who pay about 14c per kWh and frozen Finns who only have to fork out about 15c per kWh.

Even the three million households on typically better value “market offers” are still paying energy companies over 25c per kWh, far more than Americans (about 17c per kWh), Dutch or Italians (both about 20c per kWh).

And this is before taking into account the new surge in NSW costs on July 1, when widespread price rises of up to 12 per cent kicked in, adding $170 to the average annual bill. There are reports of increases of up to 24 per cent.

The official advocacy body on electricity said the situation was concerning, with power increasingly *becoming a “significant expense for ordinary families”.

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http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/ne...d/news-story/75368ed35e0a817d403868636253e616

On going consequences of rises in Global Temperatures with an extra kick from El Nino becoming apparent.

Massive mangrove die-off on Gulf of Carpentaria worst in the world, says expert

Climate change and El Niño the culprits, says Norm Duke, an expert in mangrove ecology, after seeing 7,000ha of dead mangroves over 700km

Michael Slezak
@MikeySlezak
email

Monday 11 July 2016 14.52 AEST
Last modified on Monday 11 July 2016 15.05 AEST

Climate change and El Niño have caused the worst mangrove die-off in recorded history, stretching along 700km of Australia’s Gulf of Carpentaria, an expert says.

The mass die-off coincided with the world’s worst global coral bleaching event, as well as the worst bleaching event on the Great Barrier Reef, in which almost a quarter of the coral was killed – something also caused by unusually warm water.

And last week it was revealed warm ocean temperatures had wiped out 100km of important kelp forests off the coast of Western Australia.

To assess the damage to the mangroves, Norm Duke, an expert in mangrove ecology from James Cook University, flew in a helicopter over 700km of coastline, where there had been reports of widespread mangrove die-offs.

He was “shocked” by what he saw. He calculated dead mangroves now covered a combined area of 7,000 hectares, as was first reported by the ABC on Sunday. That was the worst mangrove mass die-off seen anywhere in the world, he said.

“We have seen smaller instances of this kind of moisture stress before, but what is so unusual now is its extent, and that it occurred across the whole southern gulf in a single month.”

.....Mangroves die off naturally on a small scale, but Duke had never seen anything of this magnitude.

Around the world there had been widespread destruction of mangroves, but usually as a result of direct local impacts such as clearing for the creation of shrimp farms, he said. But the areas in northern Australia were “relatively pristine”.

“So you can see global changes or influences more easily. Usually, local influences are far stronger.”

The clear culprit in this case was climate change, which was warming waters and making rainfall more erratic, Duke said. That put the mangrove forests at their tolerance limit, and when a strong El Niño hit the world this year – warming waters in northern Australia and drawing rainfall away – they were pushed past their tolerance thresholds.

Greg Browning, from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, confirmed the past two years had seen unusually low rainfall and very high sea surface and air temperatures across the region where the die-off occurred.

“In a nutshell, there have been significantly below-average rainfall totals in the last two wet seasons ... and very warm sea surface temperatures,” he said. “When you have those departures from average conditions, it’s bound to affect the ecosystem in some way.”

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https://www.theguardian.com/environ...of-carpentaria-worst-in-the-world-says-expert

Why have 700 Klm of mangroves died off in the Gulf of Carpenteria?

Yep global temperatures are rising at ridiculous rates and are now stressing many ecosystems beyond their capacity to cope.

So they turn up their toes and die.

We just broke the record for hottest year, nine straight times

Earth’s record hottest 12 consecutive months were set in each month ending in September 2015 through May 2016

Dana Nuccitelli

Monday 11 July 2016 20.00 AEST
Last modified on Monday 11 July 2016 20.25 AEST

2014 and 2015 each set the record for hottest calendar year since we began measuring surface temperatures over 150 years ago, and 2016 is almost certain to break the record once again.

It will be without precedent: the first time that we’ve seen three consecutive record-breaking hot years.

.....For comparison, 1997–1998 saw a very similar monster El Niño event. And similarly, the 12-month hottest temperature record was set in each month from October 1997 through August 1998. That was likewise a case of El Niño and global warming teaming up to shatter previous temperature records.

The difference is that while September 1997–August 1998 was the hottest 12-month period on record at the time; it’s now in 60th place. It’s been surpassed by yearlong periods in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015, and 2016. Many of those years weren’t even aided by El Niño events; unassisted global warming made them hotter than 1998.

Global surface temperatures are now more than 0.3 °C hotter than they were in 1997–1998. That’s a remarkable rise over just 18 years, in comparison to the 1 °C the Earth’s average surface temperatures have risen since the Industrial Revolution began.
[/B]

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https://www.theguardian.com/environ...-the-record-for-hottest-year-9-straight-times

explod said:

And a couple of years back (under the coalition) we let China into huge gas reserves for less than 6 cents a litre.

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Watched a lectured on Austerity by this Scottish Economists (Mark Blyth ?) and he was saying how when it come to making money off of the Chinese, the Yanks are much more clever than the Aussies.

The Yanks just give the Chinese pieces of IOUs (at 2%) and get all the money and goodies; we Aussies actually sell and ship the actual stuff to them.

At least we're not like the Middle Eastern countries shipping off finite resources for cheap and keep it all at the top... oh wait. Well at least our leaders are not being controlled by the yanks... wait... dam it!