Resisting Climate Hysteria

[Stephen Wilde]

I don't attribute ALL the recent observed warming to UHI effects and exagerrated adjustments.

We saw the mid latitude jets move poleward for 25 years or so and that is an indicator that a warming trend was in progress. Warming proponents asserted as much and attributed the cause to more CO2 in the air.

However against the expectations of warming proponents the jets started moving back equatorward 10 to 15 years ago and now the effects are becoming obvious.

The accumulation of warm years recently is simply because we are approaching, or are at, or are leaving a 500 year upward curve from the depths of the Little Ice Age.

The upward progression is not smooth and the next downward progression won't be either. Indeed we may yet have a couple more warming cycles seperated by cooling cycles before we match the peak of the Mediaeval Warm Period and start a proper downward trend again.

Theres no change in the laws of physics required to follow my 'model'. That model complies with the established laws of physics but uses logic to deduce from those laws and from real world observations the correct sequence of events. I then go on to point out to readers a set of propositions that must be true to achieve a match between the laws of physics and real world events.

If alternative propositions can be formulated to achieve a similar match then so be it. However the idea of CO2 as a significant climate forcing agent is obviously not one such because the match between theory and reality becomes daily weaker.

 

[trainspotter]

No.

derty responded to your post which was only about weather, not climate.
Weather events will continue at either extreme, and your respective posts showed just that.

Climate hysteria is about warming and that implies a discernable trend.
I was presenting a rebuttal to Mr Wilde's initial contention. If he thinks the last 15 years provide evidence of cessation of warming, why is it that every one of those years is in the top 20 warmenst in the past century.

My Wiki table exluded last year, which was the second warmest in the past century, although for Australia it was the hottest since records began.

LMAO now. If the respondent post was about climate and not weather how is it that you can post a Wiki table is in regards to HEAT (in your case you are calling it climate) and mine was in repsonse to COLD (weather?) is there a discernable difference? Good for the goose but not for the gander?

"Climate Hysteria is about warming" (your words) and you post a table from Wiki evidencing this to support your stance and I post a Wiki table evidencing that it has been the coldest winter in Boston for 114 years and in other parts of the world (UK coldest winter in 31 years) Ummmmmmmm I am confused now sneak'n ?

Could be a case of my Wiki table can beat up your Wiki table?

 

[sneak'n]

LMAO now. If the respondent post was about climate and not weather how is it that you can post a Wiki table is in regards to HEAT (in your case you are calling it climate) and mine was in response to COLD (weather?) is there a discernible difference? Good for the goose but not for the gander?

"Climate Hysteria is about warming" (your words) and you post a table from Wiki evidencing this to support your stance and I post a Wiki table evidencing that it has been the coldest winter in Boston for 114 years and in other parts of the world (UK coldest winter in 31 years) Ummmmmmmm I am confused now sneak'n ?

Could be a case of my Wiki table can beat up your Wiki table?

The table I posted amalgamated the temperature information across the globe and presented it as a single figure for the year.

Your references simply indicated that in certain places at certain times we have had extreme weather events. You could have tried to build a climate case from the patterns of weather events you posted on, but you did not.

A climate case may have revealed that despite the severity of the event, the duration was trending consistently longer/shorter and the temperatures were trending higher/lower.

For example, Australia's weather records are showing long term trends of longer/hotter heat waves, more higher-minimum temperatures and drier south/wetter north of continent.

 

[sneak'n]

However the idea of CO2 as a significant climate forcing agent is obviously not one such because the match between theory and reality becomes daily weaker.

Let's see.
Hottest temperatures recorded in past century in most recent decades.
Greatest concentrations of CO2 gases recorded for longer still, also in most recent decades.
There is no match between your view and climate realities.
Stop telling lies and start getting the science right.

 

[trainspotter]

Disconcerting as it may be to true believers in global warming, the average temperature on Earth has remained steady or slowly declined during the past decade, despite the continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, and now the global temperature is falling precipitously.

All four agencies that track Earth's temperature (the Hadley Climate Research Unit in Britain, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, the Christy group at the University of Alabama, and Remote Sensing Systems Inc in California) report that it cooled by about 0.7C in 2007. This is the fastest temperature change in the instrumental record and it puts us back where we were in 1930. If the temperature does not soon recover, we will have to conclude that global warming is over.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...n-ice-age-cometh/story-e6frg73o-1111116134873

According to Dr. Roy Spencer, climatologist and former NASA scientist, satellite data for June shows that global temperatures are falling. The Earth has cooled an astounding .74 °F since former Vice President Al Gore released his propaganda piece "An Inconvenient Truth" in 2006.

 

[trainspotter]

MIAMI 11th January 2010 ”” Record low temperatures chilled Florida from top to bottom Monday, endangering fruit and vegetable crops and taxing the power grid of a state unaccustomed to the cold. The National Weather Service reported 36 degrees at the Miami airport, beating an 82-year-old record of 37 degrees. It dipped to 42 degrees in Key West, one degree off the record and the second-coldest reading since 1873.

January 5th 2010 - Arctic air and record snow falls gripped the northern hemisphere yesterday, inflicting hardship and havoc from China, across Russia to Western Europe and over the US plains.

There were few precedents for the global sweep of extreme cold and ice that killed dozens in India, paralysed life in Beijing and threatened the Florida orange crop. Chicagoans sheltered from a potentially killer freeze, Paris endured sunny Siberian cold, Italy dug itself out of snowdrifts and Poland counted at least 13 deaths in record low temperatures of about minus 25C (-13F).

The heaviest snow yesterday hit northeastern Asia, which is suffering its worst winter weather for 60 years. More than 25 centimetres (10in) of snow covered Seoul, the South Korean capital ”” the heaviest fall since records began in 1937.

In China, Beijing and the nearby port city of Tianjin had the deepest snow since 1951, with falls of up to 8in and temperatures of minus 10C. In the far north of China, the temperature fell to minus 32C. More than two million Beijing and Tianjin pupils were sent home and 1,200 flights were delayed or cancelled at Beijing’s international airport.

Seems Co2 has a lot to answer for ?

 

[sneak'n]

trainspotter
You need to compare apples with apples, and you are not.
There are numerous datasets maintained by different organisations, utilising instrumental, radiosonde and satellite measurements.

While the datasets may not give the same numbers, they use consistent principles and allow for systematic examination.

Cherrypicking data is not handy, so your reference to a particular year's temperature change being significant, belies the actual temperature outcome, as distinct from the rate of change. The decade was the hottest on record, and that one year experience a strong cooling from the previous simply tells us that we continue to have significant variability within an overall rising trend.

 

[trainspotter]

Keep on punching sneak'n ! It is you who are cherry picking now when you are resting your case on this decade is "the hottest on record". The fact of the science is that it is backed up by leading institutes of climate recording who have produced a graph that definitley evidences that the temperature has dropped below the mean average and that the earth has cooled.

YES - you are right in saying that this was the hottest decade "globally" but this is the same to say that according to the figures of these well respected institutes that the temperature has dropped to the same as it was in the 1930's. If you look at the graph you will see that the earth's temperature has risen and fallen remarkably in this period of time and in fact is evidencing a cooling trend as neither of us can predict the future.

Who is to say that this downard spiral does not continue? What then? Wonderful that the past 10 years were the hottest on record "globally" (where I think the science is erring due to the location of the instruments) but what will happen if the next 10 years it continues to plummet? Ice age? I can smell the penguin **** already. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr !

 

[sneak'n]

Keep on punching sneak'n ! It is you who are cherry picking now when you are resting your case on this decade is "the hottest on record". The fact of the science is that it is backed up by leading institutes of climate recording who have produced a graph that definitley evidences that the temperature has dropped below the mean average and that the earth has cooled.

I can table dozens of different long term charts and tables of the temperature record going back over 100 years - all showing an upward trend.
I would enjoy seeing the definitive charts from leading institutes that you refer to.

 

[wayneL]

I can table dozens of different long term charts and tables of the temperature record going back over 100 years - all showing an upward trend.

And that doesn't say something to you?

 

[DB008]

Found this.
What do you guys think?

The Great Global Warming Swindle

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5576670191369613647#

 

[trainspotter]

I can table dozens of different long term charts and tables of the temperature record going back over 100 years - all showing an upward trend.
I would enjoy seeing the definitive charts from leading institutes that you refer to.

I have already posted (the Hadley Climate Research Unit in Britain, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, the Christy group at the University of Alabama, and Remote Sensing Systems Inc in California) chart evidencing a fall in the earths temperature. I eagerly await your "dozens" of confounding charts theorising otherwise.

 

[trainspotter]

Here is a chart for you to feast your eyes on in the meantime whilst you search for the "dozens" of charts by recognised leading academics with an agenda to push for global warming.

 

[GumbyLearner]

The heaviest snow yesterday hit northeastern Asia, which is suffering its worst winter weather for 60 years. More than 25 centimetres (10in) of snow covered Seoul, the South Korean capital ”” the heaviest fall since records began in 1937.

That's true. The missus had the ondol on most of today and last night. It has been freezing here. Coldest winter I can ever remember.

 

[trainspotter]

Whoooooooooops ! Ice core drilling in the fast ice off Australia's Davis Station in East Antarctica by the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-Operative Research Centre shows that last year, the ice had a maximum thickness of 1.89m, its densest in 10 years. The average thickness of the ice at Davis since the 1950s is 1.67m.

 

[sneak'n]

trainspotter
You said, "The fact of the science is that it is backed up by leading institutes of climate recording who have produced a graph that definitley evidences that the temperature has dropped below the mean average and that the earth has cooled."
Still waiting.

By the way, the Hadley Climate Research Unit, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, University of Alabama, and Remote Sensing Systems Inc do not provide surface temperature measurements as they are satellite-based and measure atmospheric temperature. Nevertheless, since inception of these measurements in 1979 all are now showing higher temperatures today, with a discernible rising trend using three-year averaged data.

 

[trainspotter]

trainspotter
You said, "The fact of the science is that it is backed up by leading institutes of climate recording who have produced a graph that definitley evidences that the temperature has dropped below the mean average and that the earth has cooled."
Still waiting.

By the way, the Hadley Climate Research Unit, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, University of Alabama, and Remote Sensing Systems Inc do not provide surface temperature measurements as they are satellite-based and measure atmospheric temperature. Nevertheless, since inception of these measurements in 1979 all are now showing higher temperatures today, with a discernible rising trend using three-year averaged data.

I can't be bothered anymore sneak'n. Ducking and diving and leading from one nitpicking argument to the other about "decades" and now "three-year averaged data" then requesting other ASFERs to "stop telling lies" has become both boring and tedious. If you look at the graph I posted from these Institutes you will see it clearly shows that the temperature has fallen to the equivalent of what is what it was in the 1930's. Nevertheless .... I bid you adieu on this matter and will let others far more clever than myself take up the challenge of doing battle with your meaningless ripostes.

 

[sneak'n]

I can't be bothered anymore sneak'n. Ducking and diving and leading from one nitpicking argument to the other about "decades" and now "three-year averaged data" then requesting other ASFERs to "stop telling lies" has become both boring and tedious. If you look at the graph I posted from these Institutes you will see it clearly shows that the temperature has fallen to the equivalent of what is what it was in the 1930's. Nevertheless .... I bid you adieu on this matter and will let others far more clever than myself take up the challenge of doing battle with your meaningless ripostes.

Another dummy spitter?

I remain prepared to argue the science. I won't duck and dive it, but it does need to have a reasonable base. You seemed confused about the difference between weather and climate. Meanwhile Mr Wilde's science was eponymous or, mumbo jumbo.

You say, "If you look at the graph I posted from these Institutes you will see it clearly shows that the temperature has fallen to the equivalent of what is what it was in the 1930's".

April 15, 2010
The world’s combined global land and ocean surface temperature made last month the warmest March on record, according to NOAA. Taken separately, average ocean temperatures were the warmest for any March and the global land surface was the fourth warmest for any March on record. Additionally, the planet has seen the fourth warmest January – March period on record.
Read more at http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100415_marchstats.html

Now I know the above relates to specific periods within a year, but I am curious to learn how the 1930s were as warm.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The evenings are getting cooler again here in Townsville and it can be a bit nippy just before dawn, 20 degrees centigrade this morning, so its not much change really in the weather from other years, and I don't need some confected graph to tell me that.

gg

 

[trainspotter]

Sneak'n just because I know your secret identity, I will humour you for one last time. Go and do your own research and stop antagonising the other ASFers in here by demanding they must prove the science whilst you sit back and criticise them both personally and in your case illogically when they do give you the facts you so desperately require to feed your fire. DFTT everybody. Google it if you don't know the meaning.