Resisting Climate Hysteria

Records get broken from time to time, that's inevitable given that we've really only got a century or so of accurate data for most places.

That said, there's rather a lot of extreme events recently. Snow in the USA, floods in the UK, an extreme lack of rain here in Tas whilst other parts of the country have had too much. Whether or not that is just a natural occurrence I won't claim to know, but it's causing some problems in those areas that's for sure.

We could sure use some rain down here though, no question about that. Record temperatures (mean average) too.

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain...atest&step=1&map=decile&period=3month&area=ta

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp...t&step=0&map=meandecile&period=3month&area=ta

Smurf1976 said:

Records get broken from time to time, that's inevitable given that we've really only got a century or so of accurate data for most places.

That said, there's rather a lot of extreme events recently. Snow in the USA, floods in the UK, an extreme lack of rain here in Tas whilst other parts of the country have had too much. Whether or not that is just a natural occurrence I won't claim to know, but it's causing some problems in those areas that's for sure.

We could sure use some rain down here though, no question about that. Record temperatures (mean average) too.

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain...atest&step=1&map=decile&period=3month&area=ta

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp...t&step=0&map=meandecile&period=3month&area=ta

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You are certainly correct there Smurf , conditions have been nothing short of extreme this season in Tasmania.
I think what seems to happening is that Tasmania is gradually turning into more of a S.A ( Adelaide ) climate , not great if you dislike hot and dry warmer months like me. I prefer snow and ice
Another interesting thing is about to happen to the Tasmanian Climate on Thursday , a 999 hpa low and 998 hpa low are going to slam into us. That is basically 2 low pressure systems that if in Tropical waters would probably be a Cat 2 Cyclone. Amazing stuff for sure and I have never really seen this occurrence in my living memory in the middle of Summer , these things should be off Cooktown in Qld !
Lets hope it brings rain and doesn't stir up any fires and take roofs off and bring trees down.
Are you guys at Hydro familiar with this sort of Low Pressure set up this far South in Summer ?

http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDG00074.gif?2016-Jan-26-02:57:22

I don't know if it is unprecedented or not. Someone would know but not me.

What I do know however is that the soil is incredibly dry at the moment so the forecast rains won't produce a massive amount of run-off. They'll produce some, the soil doesn't just soak up 100% of what falls from the sky, but we'd need a lot of rain just to get the soil up to saturation point. Once that is reached, then whatever rain occurs does translate pretty directly to run-off into creeks, rivers and into water storages.

So the main benefits will be to farmers and helping with the fire situation.

Have a look here (Tas Fire Service website) and you'll see just how much we'd need to get the ground saturated. For most of the state it's 100mm to 150mm and there's very few places where it's less than 50mm. Even at Strathgordon (South-West, rainfall normally about 2500mm a year) it'll need 55mm to saturate the ground.

http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/Show?pageId=colWeatherfwxsdi

So far as climate change is concerned, there's a definite down trend in run-off in Tas. Hydro uses 85% of the previous long term average for future planning purposes (this is publicly stated info). If you dig a bit deeper then what you find is that increasing temperature is at least as big a factor, perhaps larger, than any decline in actual rainfall. In short, the rising temperature has increased evaporation rates, such that the soil spends more time below saturation with the result that minor rainfalls no longer run-off and now simply soak in, only to evaporate shortly afterward.

That's part of the issue, the other part being a major decline in high rainfall events (which produce very high run-off rates). The lows haven't really changed, that record dates back almost 50 years and hasn't been broken yet, but there's been a definite decline in the number and frequency of truly wet years.

So there has definitely been a change in the climate in the context of how it affects run-off into water storages but that relates to both temperature and rainfall, not just to rainfall only as many would likely assume. Whether or not that relates to CO2 or is just a natural phenomena I won't claim to know but it's a definite trend that's for sure.

See these links. They show pretty clearly that (1) temperature has increased and (2) high rainfall years have been, with the sole exception of 1996, completely absent since the mid-1970's. Put the two together and that's where the reduction in run-off comes from.

http://soer.justice.tas.gov.au/2009/image/594/index.php

http://soer.justice.tas.gov.au/2009/image/593/index.php

The problem is most acute in Autumn for two reasons. First because in most years the ground is dry and second because there's a very significant downtrend in rainfall (the "rain hole" as I call it - because if you plot a monthly chart comparing now to the past that's pretty much what it looks like - a great big gap has opened up in Autumn).

http://soer.justice.tas.gov.au/2009/image/581/index.php

Climate will change, both globally and regionally... Fact.

As climate has changed in the past, both globally and regionally, sans anthropogenic influences, we can safely deduce that natural factors were/are paramount.

What we don't know, is the the extent, if any, of anthropogenic factors.

I remain of the opinion there is *at least* a minor role, especially regionally an d not necessarily due to ghg.

Tassie and WA situation in not so sure.

Smurf1976 said:

Records get broken from time to time, that's inevitable given that we've really only got a century or so of accurate data for most places.

That said, there's rather a lot of extreme events recently. Snow in the USA, floods in the UK, an extreme lack of rain here in Tas whilst other parts of the country have had too much. Whether or not that is just a natural occurrence I won't claim to know, but it's causing some problems in those areas that's for sure.

We could sure use some rain down here though, no question about that. Record temperatures (mean average) too.

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain...atest&step=1&map=decile&period=3month&area=ta

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp...t&step=0&map=meandecile&period=3month&area=ta

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Getting any rain down your way Smurf?

RESIDENTS on the East Coast have battened down as they prepare for more storms, which have closed the highway between Hobart and Orford.
Glamorgan Spring Bay Mayor Michael Kent, who has taken refuge at the Gateway Cafe with other Orford locals and tourists, said Tasmania Police had just closed the Tasman Highway at Orford because of a rockfall.
Businesses such as the Orford pub and golf club and the Triabunna IGA have closed due to flooding damage and the road to Spring Beach is also closed.
The East Coast will continue to be hammered with torrential rain, winds and thunder and lightning over the next two days.
Gray resident Michelle Kaal said she and daughter Brittany were woken up at 3.30am this morning when their house was shaking.
“The thunder and lightning was really right on top of the house – it was literally shaking with it and there were a couple of lots of lightning that lit up the whole house,” she said.
Gray, located just south of St Marys, had around 362mm of rain in just over 48 hours to 9am today and is one of many East Coast towns suffering through record rainfalls.
“We might have to blow up the dinghy in the shed and get some oars to go into town today,” Mrs Kaal said.

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http://www.news.com.au/national/tas...e/news-story/ba061a10d4e7a912a2d8027ce1ee69cf

Smurf1976 said:

Send half of that down south then we'll all be happy.

It's seriously dry in Tas at the moment. Dry in Vic too to my understanding.

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Your wish is my command Oh Exhalted one .. it is on it's way !!

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TS on January 5th

Not any more it aint !

Came across an analysis of the types of major consequences our current rate of global warming is taking us.

There is nothing magical or made up about these scenarios; they have all occurred in the earth's history with plenty of evidence.

Climate Monsters We Want to Keep in the Closet: Heinrich Events, Superstorms, and Warming the Deep Ocean

“Think of the climate change issue as a closet, and behind the door are lurking all kinds of monsters ”” and there’s a long list of them,” ”” Steve Pascala.

***

It has been said that Nature is a serial killer. Within her vast menagerie of life, climate, and the physical world, there are many, many terrible processes that could mortally impact individuals, larger groups, entire species and even families of species. And if you were to look for the means by which Nature performs her worst violence, the mass extinction events, your eyes would almost immediately settle upon the uncomfortable issue of climate change, an issue all too relevant today.

Of twelve major mass extinction events identified in past geological epochs, ten were likely caused by climate change. Marked by layers of rocks almost entirely devoid of complex life, these periods in which Earth became little more than a tomb should serve as a stark warning against our own rapidly increasing insults to Earth’s climate. The very worst of these ‘tomb epochs,’ the Permain or ‘Great Dying’ in which 90 percent of all species went extinct was clearly caused by a series of worsening insults brought on by a terrible switch in climate brought on by a raging global warming nightmare. And though the Permian Extinction raged about 200 million years ago, it has some rather disturbing similarities to today. For one, it was an era in which a cold glacial period emerged into a far warmer period. And secondly, a large greenhouse gas emission source forced warming to drastically accelerate resulting in not one but three major extinction crises over the course of about 165,000 years. It was the worst of the worst of all tomb epochs and it was most likely set off by a massive chain of events brought on by very rapid warming.

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http://robertscribbler.com/2013/08/...vents-superstorms-and-warming-the-deep-ocean/

Apropos to my last post the latest analysis on the Scribbler site highlights the recent increase in ocean sea levels.

It points to the rapidly increasing destabilisation of the Greenland and Antarctic ice shelfs

Rapid Acceleration in Sea Level Rise ”” From 2009 Through October 2015, Global Oceans Have Risen by 5 Millimeters Per Year

The evidence that a human-forced warming of the globe is hitting a much higher gear in terms of both added heat and ramping impacts just keeps streaming on in. Today, an update in the satellite monitor tracking global sea level rise provides yet one more ominous marker. The world’s oceans are rising at an unprecedented rate not seen since the end of the last Ice Age. A rate that appears to be rapidly accelerating.

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http://robertscribbler.com/

Interesting read and info Bas, perhaps this is the only way to truly save the Planet. If it comes at the cost of life forms and species including us well that's what mother nature truly intended. Regeneration and starting all over again is probably not a bad thing in the scheme of things .

trainspotter said:

Getting any rain down your way Smurf?

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On sunny days there's a drought then TS?

I'm sure it hasn't escaped peoples notice that the CSIRO CEO has decided to slash Australian Climate Science research. He seems have decided that Climate Change is "proven" so we don't need to learn anything more.

I thought the best comment about that particular piece of dribble was noting that "It was like saying we can stop doing astonomy after Kepler discovered the Earth moved around the sun."

In my view unless Malcolm Turnball swiftly moves to protect our scientific capacity to understand the changes occurring to our Australian climate his credibility is toast.

Misleading, inaccurate and in breach of Paris': CSIRO scientist criticises cuts

Date
February 5, 2016 - 8:16PM

Climate science to be gutted as CSIRO swings jobs axe

Australia will break a commitment made at the Paris climate summit less than two months ago if CSIRO goes ahead with its plan to axe its research programs, one of the agency's leading scientists has warned.
One of the world's three major atmospheric greenhouse gas recording stations at Cape Grim.

John Church, a globally recognised expert on sea level rise and one of CSIRO's most decorated researchers, said organisation chief Larry Marshall had misled the public by claiming there was now less need for climate research because the problem had been "proven".

...Dr Marshall announced via email on Thursday that 350 jobs would go over two years as the organisation moved away from observing and modelling climate change to working on solutions to the problem.

Details of the cuts have not been finalised, but it is understood one of the world's three major atmospheric greenhouse gas recording stations at Cape Grim, in Tasmania's north-west, is under threat. It is the only station of its type in the southern hemisphere.

The future of programs run by the $120 million RV Investigator research ship, launched amid fanfare in late 2014, are among those that are unclear.

CSIRO staff were forthright in their unhappiness at the cuts at briefings at midday on Friday, describing it as a flawed strategy.

About 100 jobs are planned to go from units dedicated to research in areas including greenhouse gas levels, sea level rise, ocean temperatures, ocean acidification and assessing what is required to keep global warming to two degrees. The jobs would be replaced by new positions in other areas.

Dr Church, who has worked at CSIRO since 1978 and expects to lose his job, said the cuts would make it difficult for Australia to uphold its part of the Paris deal, which agreed there should be greater investment in climate research, including improved observations and early warning systems.

He said the work of CSIRO was considered particularly important because of Australia's role as the major developed country in the southern hemisphere, with a focus on Antarctica and the Pacific.

"There is need for climate science – there are clauses in the Paris agreement that say that. There is a clear need for ongoing sustained and enhanced observations. The science community is actually struggling to address these issues already and so further cuts mean it will be very difficult."

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http://www.smh.com.au/environment/m...ch-criticises-csiro-cuts-20160205-gmmopl.html

basilio said:

I'm sure it hasn't escaped peoples notice that the CSIRO CEO has decided to slash Australian Climate Science research. He seems have decided that Climate Change is "proven" so we don't need to learn anything more.

I thought the best comment about that particular piece of dribble was noting that "It was like saying we can stop doing astonomy after Kepler discovered the Earth moved around the sun."

In my view unless Malcolm Turnball swiftly moves to protect our scientific capacity to understand the changes occurring to our Australian climate his credibility is toast.


http://www.smh.com.au/environment/m...ch-criticises-csiro-cuts-20160205-gmmopl.html

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I can see the money saved going to "Direct Action", the most inefficient way of reducing emissions that I can think of and is just a present for business donators.

basilio said:

Apropos to my last post the latest analysis on the Scribbler site highlights the recent increase in ocean sea levels.

It points to the rapidly increasing destabilisation of the Greenland and Antarctic ice shelfs

http://robertscribbler.com/

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BAH HUMBUG MORE HYSTERIA !!

An important uncertainty relates to whether discharge of ice from
the ice sheets will continue to increase as a consequence of accelerated
ice flow, as has been observed in recent years. This would
add to the amount of sea level rise, but quantitative projections of
how much it would add cannot be made with confidence, owing
to limited understanding of the relevant processes

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http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/pd/climate/factsheets/issea.pdf

Something very smelly about this statement ...

"Sea level along the west coast of the United States has actually fallen over the past 20 years because long-term natural cycles there are hiding the impact of global warming," said Josh Willis, an oceanographer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. "However, there are signs this pattern is changing. We can expect accelerated rates of sea level rise along this coast over the next decade as the region recovers from its temporary sea level deficit.'"

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http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4700

Temporary sea level deficit? WTF does that mean??

So this is what actually happens when sea level rise eh?

Funafuti atoll, which includes the capital of Tuvalu, is an islet archipelago in the tropical Pacific Ocean made from coral debriswashed up from an underlying reef by waves, winds and currents. Over the past 60 years the sea has risen by around 30 centimetres locally,sparking warnings that the atoll is set to disappear.

But Paul Kench of the University of Auckland, New Zealand, and colleagues found no evidence of heightened erosion. After poring over more than a century’s worth of data, including old maps and aerial and satellite imagery, they conclude that 18 out of 29 islands have actually grown.

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https://www.newscientist.com/articl...islands-may-grow-not-sink-as-sea-levels-rise/

Please note that in the THREE links I have quoted NOT ONE OF THEM is agreeing with the other on the amount of sea level rising. One says 3 inches another says 30 centimetres and the other one is pure guessing what MIGHT happen in 100 years (but they are not sure if they are right?)

Also note the TUVALU erosion FACTS ... no wait .. the islands have grown 18 hectares as a whole.



Has it stopped raining in Tasmania yet?

You are so clever at cherry picking TS.. Just A1 stuff mate.

You quote one paragraph from an entire analysis on the increase in sea level as a result of global warming. If anyone else is interested in the whole picture and not a cherry picked paragraph please read the story . It is sobering.

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4700

Then you quote the "uncertainty" passage in the ocean service PDF.

This was written around 2005/6. The whole text outlines the increasing rate of runoff from the melting of Greenland with the cautionary note that one cannot be certain of the amount of future melting

The uncomfortable fact however is that 9 years later in 2015 the evidence is in that melting of Greenland has accelerated. That is the current information in a rapidly deteriorating situation

I'm going to do you a favour bas and print that off so I can distribute it to the kiddies around Moggill for you tomorrow....

trainspotter said:

Has it stopped raining in Tasmania yet?

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Some rain fell and was enough to cause localised flooding in a few areas where falls were heaviest but it just soaked into the ground across most of the state.

We've now gone back to dry conditions it seems, with every day warmer than the long term average and with practically no rain forecast. The rains did some good in many areas, certainly a help to farmers, but overall much of the state is still pretty dry.

trainspotter said:

View attachment 65797

Has it stopped raining in Tasmania yet?

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Is it me or the tide is much closer to the tree in the "after" image? Seems a bit of ponding around its roots and its leaves aren't doing too well either.

luutzu said:

Is it me or the tide is much closer to the tree in the "after" image? Seems a bit of ponding around its roots and its leaves aren't doing too well either.

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I think the pics are 180 degrees out of kilter? The story sounds like a yarn to me.

basilio said:

You are so clever at cherry picking TS.. Just A1 stuff mate.

You quote one paragraph from an entire analysis on the increase in sea level as a result of global warming. If anyone else is interested in the whole picture and not a cherry picked paragraph please read the story . It is sobering.

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4700

Then you quote the "uncertainty" passage in the ocean service PDF.

This was written around 2005/6. The whole text outlines the increasing rate of runoff from the melting of Greenland with the cautionary note that one cannot be certain of the amount of future melting

The uncomfortable fact however is that 9 years later in 2015 the evidence is in that melting of Greenland has accelerated. That is the current information in a rapidly deteriorating situation

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You seem to have missed what I was getting at by "cherry picking" the data. The three "examples" that were evidenced all had a degree of ???????????? about them as in they all contradicted each other with different figures and timeframes as well as covering their @rses by placing in disclaimers about how they really don't know where, how much and what timeframe all of this is going to occur.

This is like the post you put up claiming all the salmon are dying due to global warming when in fact it was a disease that constricted their gills to stop them from breathing. PURE HYSTERIA.

Yes sea levels are rising of that there is no doubt but it would seem that it is not rising uniformally and in some areas is actually receding

Sea level along the west coast of the United States has actually fallen over the past 20 years

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I have been fishing the Abrolhos Islands for over 30 years and I have NEVER seen the water levels at their record lows. Surely they should be flooded by now? Or is it a temporary sea level deficit ?

Smurf1976 said:

Some rain fell and was enough to cause localised flooding in a few areas where falls were heaviest but it just soaked into the ground across most of the state.

We've now gone back to dry conditions it seems, with every day warmer than the long term average and with practically no rain forecast. The rains did some good in many areas, certainly a help to farmers, but overall much of the state is still pretty dry.

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Ummm I am confused ... Isn't it supposed to be hot in Summer ?? As in NOT raining with flooding?

Yep it gets hot everywhere ...

Geraldton the hottest place on earth after scorching 45-degree day. (29th December 2015)

Read more: http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/w...y-20151229-glwa5i.html#comments#ixzz3zRVFRpUK

The BOM temperature gauge is out at the airport. The airport is located in a flat valley with no trees or shade ANYWHERE. The temperature at my house was 36 degrees. I live next to the ocean. Quite often it is stinking hot once you get behind the hill and variances of 10 degrees is not uncommon. Sea breeze at my place and head out to the airport and still raging Easterly wind cooking the joint. Go figure.

No wait .. it has been like that for the 32 years I have lived here. It was 47.3 degrees on the 20th Feb 1985 as well.

Next 3 days will be 40+ degrees. I love summer.