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Resisting Climate Hysteria

Very entertaining talker, if not fed up with ordered society as most of us are.

Only those with everything want an ordered society. If by "ordered" we mean society and its structure to remain as they are. There's the obvious war and revolution causing disorder, but other less violent revolutions happen all the time and comes about from hungry upstart shaking things up so they can have some.

Reminds me of this scene from Romance of the Three Kingdom where TsaoTsao was having a heart to heart with his future nemesis Liu Pei. He said, wars and chaos are terrible terrible things... but for men of ambition like us, it's the opportunity of a lifetime. Without chaos, I would still be some lowly captain of the guards guarding the imperial library; you would still be selling straw hats to the end of your days. With this failed state and civil wars, I am now the Prime Minister and you and your two blood brothers will one day challenge me for all under heaven.

Haven't read Saul's book there but from the interview he seem to separate Reason/rationality from emotion and other faculties like empathy etc. All of those, I think, add to Reason... just the person have to have a great deal of vision and foresight to do what will turn out very rational but seemingly irrational at the moment.

Take climate change... very rational to do what the captains are doing; to put a cost on polluting the environment, to invest in alternatives when the current supply is in abundance, used everywhere and have a century of investment and know-how to extract and distribute... It's very rational to stay the course; and if the world floods and crops failed - well just move to higher grounds and theres plenty of money from the work you've done so no worries.

Anyway...
 
If we decide to stay on our present emissions path perhaps we should hurry up the process of moving to (much) higher ground.

The latest analysis of ice melt in the Antarctic suggest that the whole continent is at risk of losing its ice cover by 2100.


http://www.theguardian.com/environm...o-fast-whole-continent-may-be-at-risk-by-2100
 

This is the sort of extremist crap that gullible kids, if they believe it, give cause to go and top themselves.

Congratulations basilio.

Would it be to much to respectfully ask that you lot disseminate reasonable science somewhere in the middle of the bell curve of probabilities? With a doff of the cap to either extreme?

I like Freeman Dyson's thoughts on this.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/10/11/freeman_dyson_interview/?page=1

.... etc etc
 

Thank you for this post. We have our differences on this topic, but clearly what binds us is our humanity, friendships and the like. So sorry to hear of this.

In my case, the parents paid the bills, but it was the daughter who I interacted with... and imagined I (and my wife) might be mentors to.

I remember as a young person the alarmism over the nuclear threat and the ozone layer. I wish I had discussions on this topic.

Just gutted
 

The problem Wayne is that wherever you look the reality of what is happening to our world is undeniable - unless of course you choose to deny it.
 
And the facts on the ground Wayne are that methane emissions in the Arctic are exploding at an exponential rate as the permafrost melts because of the average 4 degrees C rise in temperature.
https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/arctic-meteorology/climate_change.html

The paper below explains what impact the rapidly increasing temperatures are having on Methane and Co2 emissions.
 
Another BBC doco:

 
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The rate of change in the Arctic is only being really appreciated by the relatively small number of scientists who investigate, monitor and measure the changes. They are xxxx scared.
 

The nuclear threat at the time was not alarmist, it was very real and the cold war affirmed it. In fact it is close to that again with the US Russia and now China.

This is a discussion forum where views and observations should be freely part of the rationale in this debate.

I am sorry for your personal experiences Ole Pal but they should have little to do with our basic discussion/debate.

Your hostilty at some of, what I would regard as reasonable views, indicates hysteria from your pocket.

One gets the feeling that you are a part of the oil/coal cartel lobby. It is that strong and vehement.

I started as just a boy from a farm, where from 1952 I observed annual heavy rainfalls and tadpoles in every puddle around Hawkesdale in Victoria. In the 1960's that changed dramatically, tadpoles disappeared and rainfall dropped. Those annual falls of 30 to 40 inches per year have never returned. The frog tadpole population formed there over many millions if years to be gone forever in a whisker.

Have stated on this thread many times the wipout of ringed tailed possums at Belcolm Creek, mount Martha, Victoria from just one hot day (over 49c). They had occupied that territory for millions of years. So one can put up all the figures you like, but what we see happening is real.

Not saying all this is from coal and oil burning but I have seen enough to believe it is a major contributer.

This is not hysterior but concern at the possibilties. I believe it therefore reasonable to seek change towards cleaner methods and particularly as these innovations to wind and solar, if subsidised as well as the oil/coal industry was would in fact be cheaper and certainly more efficient once running nationally and possibly linked internationally.
 
Seems that we're setting new temperature records down here in Tas:

http://www.themercury.com.au/news/t...ory-fnj4f7k1-1227568654501?from=trendinglinks

As for rain, well that basically just stopped a month ago with very little since mid-September. It's as though someone just flicked a switch and turned the rain off. Add in the warm weather and runoff has dropped rapidly to very low levels for this time of year.

Climate change? No proof, just another data point.

The conventional explanation is a strong El Nino combined with a positive IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole). Both tend to result in lower rainfall in SE Australia, put them together and the effect is pretty strong.
 

My old man has always told me the same about growing up in northern nsw. Similar timetable as well, 1950s lots of frogs then in his case he also noticed green tree snakes along with the frogs as well dissapearing. This is long before cane toads made it this far south.

I have always liked frogs and as a kid in Western Sydney used to raise a few tadpoles we would collect as eggs and raise, yeh cruel in retrospect but educational I guess.

My understanding of the issue is they are threatened by: chemicals that run off crops, a fungal infection that has affected them nearly worldwide, cane toads and habitat destruction. They have even died back in pristine national parks on the east coast which indicates how sensitive to chemicals that they are.

One reason for hope is that for some reason the South western wa frog population doesn't seem to be affected by any of these issues to the same extent. when I took the kids to fontys pool; a man made limestone pool surrounded by cropping / fruit farms I saw more frogs in one night there than I have in the rest of my life. While I like frogs this was nearly plague of Egypt style and all tree frogs. It was amazing, worth the visit for this experience alone.
 

Oh so you resort to the standard straw man argument, Wayne must have a sh!tload of oil shares.

That's disgraceful Plod.

a/ My views are somewhere around the median as I have detailed ad infinitum on here. Aligning somwhere in the region of Pielke Snr & Jnr, both ho have ceased writing on the subject due to the hatefest from the likes of you and basilio; and Dysons's view is also eminently reasonable.

b/ I do not own any energy shares at all. not one, zip, nada.

So you can shove that up your khyber mate.

As far as disappearing frogs etc. Mate, as I have also detailed here ad nauseum, climate change is only one issue and pathologically focussed on to the exclusion of anything else. There are a plethora of other anthropogenic factors responsible for the degradation of our soils, water, flora and fauna. Yet your Apocalyptic sect of kiddy killers wants to assign everything to exaggerated climate change.

That is both unbelievably stupid and incredibly irresponsible as these other issues are completely ignored.

In fact I strongly support the majority replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy forms. Mining/drilling is incredibly destructive and though we've cleaned up substantively, it is still a polluting and dirty technology. I am also uncomfortable with the power and behaviour of oil companies.

For the meantime we have to live with them however.

So plod, we've discussed this all before. I had commended you on your sincerity on this issue but I now recind that based on your inability to grasp the full range of issues and continuous retreat to unfounded and unreasonable alarmism.

As I stared before, basilio is a hopeless case and looks to be at ease with kid topping themselves. :frown:
 
I see Perth has come off it's hottest something or other.

Brisbane weather is changing too
 

In the 1950s, DDT use was rampant as was deforestation. I think the worst state in the 50's, for wrecking habitat was WA land clearing to make way for the wheat belts. Micro climates must have suffered.

You can't wipe out 40% of the remnant forests, leaving land islands, in the last 60 years and expect native flora and fauna to continue living.

Really though, who gives a fig ... we have our childhood memories and the current kids only care about their smart phones and game PCs.
 
As I stared before, basilio is a hopeless case and looks to be at ease with kid topping themselves. Wayne L

I'm not sure what's sadder Wayne. This particularly nasty little jibe or the fact that you choose to overlook both my personal regret at the death of friends daughter and the deliberate plus 1 I made on Ghotlibs post on the topic.

Cut the nastiness please. It does not improve the quality of this thread or the ASF forum. Maybe you might like to look at the scientific sources of the papers I quote and discuss ay issues you see with their methodology
 
As I stared before, basilio is a hopeless case and looks to be at ease with kid topping themselves. :frown:

You know one of the many kids who would sleep at my place in lieu of questionable parenting from their own, decided to leave my house at midnight and jump off a major shopping centre carpark to his death, in his teens. I didn't go hunting for heartless b4stards to blame, instead I went around to his house and told his dad that his boy loved him.

Basilio doesn't deserve you viciousness. If he advocated inappropriate ideas for children and youth I would be deeply concerned for those he might infect, but your invective does appear displaced.
 

Hobart has some other interesting but worrying facts and that is the number of new Monthly average records set in the 2000's . We have had new records for the hottest months now set in , 2003, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2014 and with this month certain to join that's 2015. This is based on 122 years of records. Only 2 records remain in the 1800's and the other records were set in 1990's.
Maybe we are at the peak and then it will shift back the other way ? One things for certain , washing out our jam jars and installing millions of solar panels and charging climate taxes won't reverse what mother nature has install for us.
 

I 100% stand by my comments.
 
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