Resisting Climate Hysteria

[cynic]

Yes, you definitely have some.
The more qualified as a scientist in the field, the more likely you come to the conclusion shown. Is that so hard to fathom?

It is like going to a doctor with heart problems, who will most likely provide the best diagnosis? the GP, the brain surgeon or the heart surgeon? Hardly a communist conspiracy

What is difficult to fathom is how any "qualified" scientist can continually dismiss factually relevant data that appears to contradict their treasured theories. This leads me to the logical conclusion that there is very likely an agenda that has no relevance to the environmental or general welfare of humanity or the planet!

History has shown the folly of subscribing to consensus opinions and that educational qualifications do not elevate anyone to the position of infallibility!
Have you already forgotten about that unpopular high school drop out from the last centruy? (Albert Einstein was his name if my memory serves me correctly!)

Need I say more?

 

[noco]

I think if he was here he would express shock that the new maximum record broken in 1990 was 113.5 degrees Farenheit! And even this year it was over 102 degrees F.

I reckon he would be wondering what his descendants were doing about it.

Did I mention anything about that 101 degrees F being a maximum recording?

For all I know the temperature may have been higher in the following weeks....... after all that was at the beginning of November.

 

[wayneL]

It is like going to a doctor with heart problems, who will most likely provide the best diagnosis? the GP, the brain surgeon or the heart surgeon? Hardly a communist conspiracy

You're equating cardiology to climate "science"?

That is a false analogy as cardiology is a field where empirical science rules, climate science isn't.

 

[wayneL]

Furthermore...

Hardly a communist conspiracy

Is it still a conspiracy theory when they come right out and say it?

http://www.popularresistance.org/sleepwalking-to-extinction/

the only alternative ”” impossible as this may seem right now ”” is to overthrow this global economic system and all of the governments of the 1% that prop it up and replace them with a global economic democracy, a radical bottom-up political democracy, an eco-socialist civilization.

Also read http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/1..._never_read_our_climate_documents_bwahhahhah/

 

[explod]

You're equating cardiology to climate "science"?

That is a false analogy as cardiology is a field where empirical science rules, climate science isn't.

Rubbish, merely a matter of time line.

 

[wayneL]

Rubbish, merely a matter of time line.

Substantiate please.

 

[explod]

That was a very interesting paper. What the authors noted was that the HadCRUT4 data had almost no measurements in the Arctic , Antarctic and a number of spots in Africa.

It has been clear for the last 15 years that the Arctic is warming at a considerably faster rate than the rest of the earth so incorporating temperature figures from the Arctic makes sense.

The delicious irony of the paper ? The source of the infill Acrtic temperatures was the satellite measurements supplied by the University of Alabama from Christy and Spencer who have repeatedly attempted to use the satellite temperature figures to refute global warming.

Nice video abstract of the paper on you tube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhJR3ywIijo

From the book "Climate Wars" previously quoted, it was reported that in 2007 the IPCC refused to include the calculated effects of the methane excaping from under the ice caps. And the acceleration is said to be many times worse than all coal fired activity. Sheeeez duck

The massaging is one thing but for there to be no concern at even a small possibility that our current industrial footprint could be destroying our fragile planet is beyond me.

 

[explod]

Substantiate please.

A study of our planets evolution that has taken place over the last 5.5 billions years and the chemical process involved makes it pretty clear that it has for example produced us humans. When understood the intracacies of nature are such as can be compared to the human body. The weather is a reaction of hot, cold, rain, you name it, all can be tracked and predicted by science, if the science is not compromised by self interests

The seperation inferred to support your argument is wrong.

 

[wayneL]

Plod,

Once again, cardiology is empirical, climate science is largely not empirical at all.

 

[overhang]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-03/federal-funding-bid-for-king-island-wind-farm/5132738
"It has been revealed Hydro Tasmania wants the Federal Government to help fund its $2 billion King Island wind farm project.

The state-owned hydro electricity generator is conducting a feasibility study into its plan to build 200 wind turbines on the Bass Strait island.

The proposal for Australia's largest wind farm includes the construction of an underwater cable from King Island to Victoria."

My bolds, I'm not sure if Smurf resides in this thread but I'd like to hear is opinion on this. It's seems a bit nonsensical to run a cable across the Bass Strait when Victoria already have plenty of available. land suitable for wind farms.

 

[burglar]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-03/federal-funding-bid-for-king-island-wind-farm/5132738
"It has been revealed Hydro Tasmania wants the Federal Government to help fund its $2 billion King Island wind farm project.

The state-owned hydro electricity generator is conducting a feasibility study into its plan to build 200 wind turbines on the Bass Strait island.

The proposal for Australia's largest wind farm includes the construction of an underwater cable from King Island to Victoria."

My bolds, I'm not sure if Smurf resides in this thread but I'd like to hear is opinion on this. It's seems a bit nonsensical to run a cable across the Bass Strait when Victoria already have plenty of available. land suitable for wind farms.

Hi overhang,

Reading your post it would seem obvious that:

a.) King Island is windy.
b.) Hydro Tasmania can profit from a wind farm in Bass Strait.
c.) Nothing is stopping Victoria from getting a piece of the action.

 

[overhang]

Hi overhang,

Reading your post it would seem obvious that:

a.) King Island is windy.
b.) Hydro Tasmania can profit from a wind farm in Bass Strait.
c.) Nothing is stopping Victoria from getting a piece of the action.

Hi Burglar,
The thing is we actually have wind in Victoria too, I'm less than an hour drive to three separate wind farms. My concern would be at what rate would Tasmania supply power to our grid in Victoria.

 

[burglar]

Hi Burglar,
The thing is we actually have wind in Victoria too, I'm less than an hour drive to three separate wind farms. My concern would be at what rate would Tasmania supply power to our grid in Victoria.

South Australia gets power from Victoria even though we have a coal fuelled power station.
Also co-gen and gas fired stations.
Locals have cashed in on generous subsidies with solar panels.
We now have the scungiest rooflines/skylines in the world.

We actually have wind farms and are going to have geothermal stations too.

Its all about base-load power and a mix of Green solutions that don't yet deliver base-load power.

I imagine that one day we will get wave power!
Then the scungiest technology will be hidden under the sea.

 

[Smurf1976]

South Australia gets power from Victoria even though we have a coal fuelled power station.
Also co-gen and gas fired stations.

In very rough terms one sixth of SA electricity comes from the coal-fired plants at Port Augusta, about half comes from gas-fired plants in the Adelaide metro area and the rest is from wind and solar.

SA used to be heavily reliant on power from Vic, at one point it was supplying close to a third of the average load, but these days there's far less net transfer between Vic and SA.

Its all about base-load power and a mix of Green solutions that don't yet deliver base load power

The King Island wind farm will have a load factor of about 45%. That is, a 600MW peak capacity and an average output of 270MW which makes it one of the most productive wind farms anywhere. This is possible simply due to the relatively consistent (compared to elsewhere) wind in Bass Strait.

In contrast, most wind farms achieve a load factor in the order of 30%. For other wind farms operated by Hydro Tas, it's about 35% for Woolnorth (NW Tas) and 38% for Musselroe (NE Tas).

The King Island project is purely a business venture as such, noting that it doesn't even connect to the Tasmanian electricity grid at all. It goes straight to Victoria only.

But a logical second stage is to add a Tas - King Island cable thus forming a second HVDC link across Bass Strait. With that in place, plus further wind development either on KI or in Tasmania as such and operated in an integrated manner with the existing hydro system, Hydro Tas could indeed supply firm baseload energy to Victoria.

Hydro Tas has no pumped storage schemes at present. It has conventional storage hydro-electric schemes although some of these do include pumped diversions (ie water is pumped from one place to another, but never comes back the other way - it goes through a power station with a different discharge point instead and is a net source of baseload energy). But you could certainly build pumped storage in Tasmania if the need arose, and you could do that largely by reworking existing schemes. It doesn't make financial sense at present, but technically it is certainly viable. There is also the possibility of rebuilding parts of the system to transfer it from baseload production to peak load if it became worthwhile and in one case the required infrastructure (except the actual turbines and alternators) is already in place.

Tasmania is somewhat unique at present, being predominantly powered by renewable electricity and for having a complex, integrated hydro scheme that produces base load energy (as distinct from most hydro schemes which are intended primarily for peaking operation).

Hydro Tas would also benefit in other ways from the wind farm without needing to directly connect it to the Tasmanian system since there is already a Tas - Vic power link. In general terms, when the wind farm is producing at high output this would lower Victorian electricity prices somewhat, sending them back up when the wind isn't blowing. Hydro could simply buy some of this cheaper energy from Vic, thus conserving water in storage, and then sell back to Vic at a higher price at other times. It already does this as such, power flows in both directions across Bass Strait, but the wind farm would alter the Vic prices a little bit and there is an opportunity to take advantage of this.

Hydro isn't in a position to fund the project, it doesn't have a spare $2 billion sitting around that's for sure, so its' role is likely to be that of a developer and operator with someone else owning it. As part of such a deal, Hydro would presumably ensure that engineering design work is directed to Entura, a reasonably large engineering consultancy 100% owned by Hydro.

Hydro currently operates (but does not own) two wind farms in Tasmania. It also owns and operates an integrated hydro-electric system comprising 53 large dams (and about 150 smaller structures - weirs etc) and 28 principal power stations (and one minor one) in Tasmania. It also has recently acquired the only gas-fired plant in Tas as well as dispatch rights to a small gas-fired plant in Victoria and the associated gas supply contracts. It also owns Momentum Energy, a Victorian-based retailer which sells electricity (and which will soon start selling gas) to the public and business however Momentum is prevented by state law from operating in Tasmania except on the Bass Strait islands where it is the only electricity retailer. Other Hydro assets include a diesel power system on Flinders Island, and a wind/diesel/solar power system and "smart grid" on King Island. The existing Bass Strait cable, Basslink, is privately owned.

Politically it's simply a case of playing the game and adapting to changing circumstances. It would suit Hydro quite nicely to retain the carbon tax but that isn't the way it's going. So they're just pursuing alternative opportunities instead and playing politics where necessary.

 

[basilio]

Excellent piece of research Smurf. Much appreciated.

I suppose one the most salient points is that Victoria could replace at least part of its coal fired power stations with clean, consistent wind power - and very easily at that.

 

[overhang]

Thanks for the insightful post Smurf.

I have driven past wind farms many times that have all turbines off, is this because at this time the grid is at capacity? Seems quite a waste to have the turbines sitting idle while coal is feeding the demand but I guess coal isn't too easy to just throttle back?

 

[Smurf1976]

The existing coal-fired plants in Vic are:

Loy Yang A (2240 MW)
Loy Yang B (1020 MW)
Hazelwood (1680 MW)
Yallourn W (1480 MW)
Morwell (190 MW)
Anglesea (160 MW)

Of that lot, Hazelwood currently has a nominal closure date of 2031 although it would be technically possible to extend this by a few years. But it won't still be going 30 years from now - it's not really practical to do that as it does have a finite life. Sometime in the 2030's it will close, the only question being whether it's at the start of the decade or at the end. Quite likely, it would be a staged closure just as it was a staged commissioning (1964 - 1971) when it was built.

Morwell also uses coal from the same mine as Hazelwood to fire the boilers. It's a very old plant, realistically they couldn't push it much beyond 2030 even if the coal is available - it will simply be worn out by that time. At present, it's barely operating (apart from as a briquette factory, although even that runs way below capacity these days) as the carbon tax makes it too costly.

Yallourn has a somewhat "firmer" closure in the mid-2030's as the coal runs out. There's really only one remaining area they could mine beyond that, but there's already things built on top of it and it's unlikely this will occur unless electricity is far more expensive than it is today.

Loy Yang A & B are newer plants (commissioned 1984 - 1996 in 6 stages between the two plants) and there's plenty of coal. For the foreseeable future they are likely to continue operating.

Anglesea has more than enough coal for the remaining life of the plant which could reasonably extend to sometime around 2040.

Bass Strait gas also has a finite lifespan. Exactly how long depends on what assumptions are made about production rates and future discovery, but we're talking 30 years or so give or take a decade.

So basically, Victoria loses roughly 45% of it's current power supply in the 2030's and all of its' gas supply in the 2040's if no action is taken. So far as electricity is concerned, realistically the likely scenarios are:

1. A new large brown coal plant.
2. A large nuclear plant.
3. Extensive development of renewables including from SA and Tas, with a smaller new coal or nuclear plant to the extent that renewables aren't sufficient.
4. If nothing else is done, closure of much industry plus the development of new gas-fired generation, possibly using LNG shipped in or alternatively gas (at export parity pricing) from NSW / Qld via pipeline.

Realistically, there isn't likely to be much support for option 4 unless it comes about by default (ie nothing else gets done). Also worth noting is that none of the options are viable at present electricity prices.

There's going to be an interesting energy debate in Victoria at some point.

 

[burglar]

In very rough terms one sixth of SA electricity comes from the coal-fired plants at Port Augusta, about half comes from gas-fired plants in the Adelaide metro area and the rest is from wind and solar.

SA used to be heavily reliant on power from Vic, at one point it was supplying close to a third of the average load, but these days there's far less net transfer between Vic and SA.

Port Augusta PS burns sh!tty brown coal from Leigh Creek.
It was to be shut down under K Rudd's Climate Change policy.
Julia Gillard was unable to close it down. (though I don't know why?)

National Power built a pretty little PS at Pelican Point in 1999.
It burns gas from Moomba in the Cooper Basin.
That's fine you say!
But the gas they were allocated was taken away from Adelaide Brighton Cement.
They, in turn, have been burning sh!tty alternatives to gas.
If you ring and ask, they are burning clean,
but nearby residents claim they sometimes choke on acrid smoke.

Turns out that South Australia needed that pretty little PS for extra production of Copper plate in Roxby Downs.
Roxby Downs takes power from the National Grid, but buys it from Victoria.
Physically, it probably comes from Port Augusta PS, being the nearest power station.

Somewhere, I wanted to mention that Victorian peak is a half hour ahead of SA peak.
So there is a mutual benefit of the SA-VIC interconnector.

Disclaimer: It has been 14 years since these events started and they may have been improved.

 

[burglar]

... There's going to be an interesting energy debate in Victoria at some point.

Hi Smurf,
I often look for your posts!

I'd like to echo the appreciation from other posters in regard to your knowledge of the topic and your very readable style.

(apologies about my posts, I was called away before I could polish them!)

 

[basilio]

Hi Smurf,
I often look for your posts!

I'd like to echo the appreciation from other posters in regard to your knowledge of the topic and your very readable style.

(apologies about my posts, I was called away before I could polish them!)

Ditto!!
Cheers