Resisting Climate Hysteria

[So_Cynical]

This is what I find so repugnant, the breathless and gleeful reporting of any extreme weather event these clowns believe bolsters their case.

How about an unprecedented weather event...like today.

What i find repugnant is denial in the face of overwhelming reality.

 

[wayneL]

How about an unprecedented weather event...like today.

What i find repugnant is denial in the face of overwhelming reality.

All records are unprecedented weather events, cold or hot.

However science casts a wider net than a one day record, cold or hot.

A sum of events make an overwhelming reality, not a single event, to imply this is repugnant.

 

[Some Dude]

All records are unprecedented weather events, cold or hot.

However science casts a wider net than a one day record, cold or hot.

A sum of events make an overwhelming reality, not a single event, to imply this is repugnant.

Do you have any graphs that visualise the sum of events that match overwhelming reality?

 

[wayneL]

Do you have any graphs that visualise the sum of events that match overwhelming reality?

They are detailed and debated in the public domain, beyond the scope of a blog post, but a snippet:

Letter to the Editor of The Australian

A pattern of extreme weather should not be confused with climate change.

The recent heat wave across much of Central Australia and its occasional extension east and south is a pattern of extreme weather. Climate is the recurring patterns of weather that inure us to such extremes. The climate of Alice Springs is exemplified by 1887, the previously hottest January with an average maximum of 40.7oC. The extreme, nearly 5oC above the long term January average, was made possible by a spell of 11 days over 40oC, a brief respite then another 10 days over 40oC.

Climate change, of course, is a persisting significant departure from the experienced pattern of weather. The current pattern of extreme weather is not outside the envelope of experience that describes Central Australian climate.

William Kininmonth

William Kininmonth headed Australia‘s National Climate Centre at the Bureau of Meteorology from 1986 to 1998.

 

[Smurf1976]

What i find repugnant is denial in the face of overwhelming reality.

Is the weather hot in Sydney today? At 45.8 degrees the answer is quite clearly "yes".

Is the climate changing? Hard to absolutely prove but there's a lot of anecdotal evidence to suggest that it is different now to 30 years ago.

Is there a change due to man-made CO2? Possibly but it's unproven. Where's the proof that it's not due to man-made direct heating effects (for example)?

 

[Some Dude]

They are detailed and debated in the public domain, beyond the scope of a blog post, but a snippet:

Does he have an opinion about the persistent rise in anomalous extreme temperatures over the last 100+ years?

 

[wayneL]

Does he have an opinion about the persistent rise in anomalous extreme temperatures over the last 100+ years?

Ignoring the argumentative fallacy, I suppose so, you can ask him yourself.

 

[Some Dude]

Ignoring the argumentative fallacy, I suppose so, you can ask him yourself.

Have you got a link for that one? I just checked so that I could work out what you meant but I couldn't find it? What is the "argumentative fallacy"?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It is weather.

We only have records going back to Settlement.

Much of the "evidence" is forward "looking" computer generated projections.

Ian Plimer puts a totally different argument to the Alarmists but is seldom listened to.

gg

 

[Some Dude]

We only have records going back to Settlement.

I assume you mean human records for Australia?

Much of the "evidence" is forward "looking" computer generated projections.

What about the models for historical observed data that are the basis for the projections?

Ian Plimer puts a totally different argument to the Alarmists but is seldom listened to.

Is it possible that he is listened to but his position is rejected as untenable?

 

[burglar]

... houses are built so as to keep the heat out. ...

Not mine, ... timber frame. asbestos cladding, corrugated iron roof and large picture windows facing north.
Upside ... it cools down real fast.

I wouldn't say that 43 in Adelaide is extreme. ...

You're right, I was sitting under an air con both days!

I refer to Bureau of Meteorology data:
Hottest ever this month 45.7 ° 28/01/2009
Hottest this year 45.0 ° 04/01/2013

http://www.meteorology.com.au/local-climate-history/sa/adelaide

I was in Tassie once.
Locals apologized for the weather when it became overcast!


And there was snow on Mt Wellington in January. My kids loved it!!

 

[Some Dude]

Others may be already aware but there is a very good forum (Weather Zone) dedicated specifically to Australian weather discussions. I'm not just talking about AGW discussions but includes observational weather discussions about what is happening now. I have been a lurker on the site for sometime now and can recommend it to anyone wanting to start learning about weather without opening the science books. In particular, the storm chasers have some great knowledge about the daily mechanics and is fascinating to follow, especially when the big events happen.

 

[spooly74]

I am not aware of any models that reflect observable data at all.

You won't find any.

“Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful” - George E. P. Box (b 1919)

 

[Some Dude]

You won't find any.

“Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful” - George E. P. Box (b 1919)

That is a very perceptive point. Gravity for example is wrong, but useful. The science of gravity got us to the moon and back. Some dude named Einstein figured out a better model which better explained the observable data, and thus we then had Relativity. It's wrong also but we are still arguing about what is better, still it is the best we have at this point in time (badoom).

Which leads me to your introductory sentence. Why won't we find any any models that reflect observable data? The climate scientists seem to disagree. Can someone identify where they have got it wrong such that the current models are not just wrong in the useful sense, but that they are useless?

 

[sails]

Another stinker in Adelaide today!

"Adelaide 43 °"

And 27 today...

 

[sails]

Is the weather hot in Sydney today? At 45.8 degrees the answer is quite clearly "yes".

Is the climate changing? Hard to absolutely prove but there's a lot of anecdotal evidence to suggest that it is different now to 30 years ago.

Is there a change due to man-made CO2? Possibly but it's unproven. Where's the proof that it's not due to man-made direct heating effects (for example)?

Smurf, what about the heatwaves Sydney has had before? I posted this earlier in the thread and Sydney has had two other heatwaves of about the same temperature. What would have caused these over 70 and 160 years ago?

It seems to me there is nothing new. Nothing has changed. Extreme weather comes as it always has and especially in this country where weather extremes are normal.


This from Wiki:

In the days preceding the fires, the state capital Melbourne experienced some of its hottest temperatures on record at the time: 43.8 °C (110.8 °F) on 8 January and 44.7 °C (112.5 °F) on 10 January. On 13 January, the day of the fires, temperatures reached 45.6 °C (114.1 °F), which stood as the hottest day officially recorded in Melbourne for the next 70 years. (Unofficial records show temperatures of around 47 °C (117 °F) were reported on the Black Thursday fires of 6 February 1851).[2]

The summer of 1938–39 had been hot and dry, and several fires had broken out. By early January, fires were burning in a number of locations across the state. Then, on Friday 13 January, a strong northerly wind hit the state, causing several of the fires to combine into one massive front.​

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Friday_(1939)

 

[sails]

Very true, assuming your perception of any given individual is correct, do you think that is then representative of all, or even the majority, of climate scientists?

How do you feel about AGW coverage in The Australian's over the last 1-2 weeks with regard to truth etc?

A interesting graph from NASA regarding temperature anomalies in the US since 1895. Further global temperature anomalies can be found here (NASA).

SD, You don't get it...

You can't post a chart of something and use it to try and deflect from the lack of real honesty. I haven't read the Australian this week about climate change so will pass on your questions of which I am tiring of answering.

When there has been deception, people no longer believe anything else that is dished up. How do I know if your chart is accurate? Too much subterfuge has been going on for me to trust anything about climate change from the side that has been dishonest. Have you ever read the story of the boy who cried wolf? It might explain why many Aussies are not listening any more.

You can carry on all you like promoting this stuff and most won't even bother to read it. Over and out from me.

 

[Some Dude]

Have you ever read the story of the boy who cried wolf?

Yep. I believe I understand what you are saying.

You can carry on all you like promoting this stuff and most won't even bother to read it. Over and out from me.

Thanks for taking the time to read.

 

[Calliope]

This will be a thing of the past when the Carbon Tax really kicks in.

 

[Some Dude]

The cartoon reminded me of this picture (NASA) that I saw the other day. Posted for interest, not to make any point.



Anyone interested, be sure to read the text. Those bright spots are across a time frame, not all happening at once.