Resisting Climate Hysteria

sails · 16 January 2013

I was looking up heatwave history and found this article. My question is that if it has been as hot many years ago when there was less industrialisation, then something else caused it (like normal weather patterns...lol). Surely the same forces that caused heat waves in the past could cause them again.

It's time to put this heatwave into perspective by having a look at history - here are some excerpts:

Sure, Australia is enjoying a heatwave, but history will tell us that it is not that unusual.

We are told that the hottest average maximum temperature recorded across Australia reached a record 40.33 degrees on Monday, however, it was more interesting to note that this broke a record set in December 1972 - yes, 1972.

As predictions of hot weather continue, it was even more interesting to look at historical data. Sydney hit 42.5 degrees this week and sent everyone into meltdown but it wasn't a patch on Sydney's record 45.3 degrees set in 1939 - the year that World War II started.

And, that record in 1939 beat the previous record set in 1896.

In terms of Australia's hottest day, well, that record of 50.7 degrees was set at Oodnadatta Airport in 1960.

There is plenty of debate about the lack of fuel reduction burns and their ability to subdue major fires. These burns have become politically incorrect in these environmentally sensitive times when, in fact, cool autumn burns are good for safety and good for nature.

http://www.examiner.com.au/story/1231415/heatwave-a-hotter-topic/?cs=97

Trying to pretend this heatwave is something worse than we've had before is the sort of dishonesty that bothers me with AGW.

And do AGWers realise that some of the more frequent bush fire activity is very likely due to the lack of fuel reduction burns? That's a policy issue and has nothing to do with AGW. Again, it's the dishonesty of all this that puts me right off. It looks like it is a fake when dishonesty and partial truths (distorting the real truth) are used so freely. If it really is a problem, surely there is no need for deception?

sails · 16 January 2013

And the other thing is extreme cold seems to be ignored by AGWers. China has recently broken records on cold. Not unusual in winter just as heatwaves are not unusual in summer.

Andrew Bolt is still on holidays and is in Los Angeles with an unusual cold snap:

Temperatures in downtown Los Angeles fell to 34 degrees, breaking the previous record of 36 degrees set on Jan. 14, 2007.

A week or two ago I was caught outside in Boston in the coldest weather of my life:

While locally, lows ranged from the low 20s to near 30 (F.), there was some bone-chilling cold to our north. Parts of Vermont and upstate New York dropped from -10 to -20 , colder than anything experienced all of last winter. Boston even dropped to 7, just one degree warmer than its low in 2012.

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/..._type_this_message_to_a_warmist/#commentsmore

explod · 16 January 2013

sails said:
And the other thing is extreme cold seems to be ignored by AGWers. China has recently broken records on cold. Not unusual in winter just as heatwaves are not unusual in summer.

Andrew Bolt is still on holidays and is in Los Angeles with an unusual cold snap:

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/..._type_this_message_to_a_warmist/#commentsmore

Answered this question yesterday.

Increased cloud from warming is altering jet streams from the poles. There is an evening out of temperatures, less cold on the arctic tip equals more air movement towards the centre.

That is why we are now getting greater extremes of hot and cold. Places like Northern Scandinavia have had minus 40c below in the winter time as normal. Altering jet streams are now bringing such temperatures to other places at those latitudes and even further south/(or north depending on which end you are standing)

sails · 16 January 2013

explod said:
Answered this question yesterday.

Increased cloud from warming is altering jet streams from the poles. There is an evening out of temperatures, less cold on the arctic tip equals more air movement towards the centre.

That is why we are now getting greater extremes of hot and cold. Places like Northern Scandinavia have had minus 40c below in the winter time as normal. Altering jet streams are now bringing such temperatures to other places at those latitudes and even further south/(or north depending on which end you are standing)

Explod, we have always had hot and cold extremes. This is what I find dishonest about AGW is trying to pretend that extremes which have always been with us are now something new.

So what caused the extreme heat and cold 100 - 200 - 300 - 500+ years ago? Not much industrialisation to blame then AND much few people on earth.

The use of extreme weather (which has always been around) to support AGW doesn't hold water, imo.

And, if we are experiencing heat waves and other countries are experiencing record cold, surely that averages out that the globe is not heating overall?

Calliope · 16 January 2013

explod said:
Answered this question yesterday.

Yeah, with some garbage about the Gulf Stream affecting China's climate. Surely your "vibes" tell you that the Gulf Stream is in the Atlantic...not the Pacific.

sails · 16 January 2013

So now it seems it is not just Global Warming - it includes Global Cooling...LOL

Much like Flannery saying what he said about the rain not filling dams (yes I have posted a transcript) because of Global Warming and then when the rains came, the rains were blamed on Global Warming...

Surely you AGWers can see the changing of the goal posts and the subterfuge that goes on removes much credibility? Too bad if there really is a problem because most people are getting fed up with these sort of tactics.

If AGW were real, there should be no need for subterfuge. Truth can stand on it's own.

spooly74 · 16 January 2013

basilio said:
I mentioned in an earlier post that there was National Climate Assessment report compiled and now published in draft form in the USA.

It outlines what scientist see as the effects of climate on America both currently and in the future. The story in The Guardian higlights some of the main findings

Interesting.

So while many advocates in science and the media shout "Alarm" and celebrate its depiction of extremes, another question we should be asking is, how is it that it got things so wrong? Either the IPCC and the scientific literature is in error, or the draft USGCRP assessment is -- But don't take my word for it, check it out for yourself.

Extreme Misrepresentation: USGCRP and the Case of Floods

explod; said:
Yeh, good point as the sceptics are possessed with the hysteria of resistance of late (and it is late IMHO) to the emergent facts and "the vibe"

What should it matter whether skeptics get the 'vibe' or not?
Governments have all the power they need to take action.
Doesn't matter whether skeptics come late, or at all.

explod · 16 January 2013

sails said:
Explod, we have always had hot and cold extremes. This is what I find dishonest about AGW is trying to pretend that extremes which have always been with us are now something new.

So what caused the extreme heat and cold 100 - 200 - 300 - 500+ years ago? Not much industrialisation to blame then AND much few people on earth.

The use of extreme weather (which has always been around) to support AGW doesn't hold water, imo.

And, if we are experiencing heat waves and other countries are experiencing record cold, surely that averages out that the globe is not heating overall?

We did not get such wide ranging extremes as we are heading into now. A whole species of possum perished on B lack Saturday along Belcombe Creek Mount Martha where they had evolved over millions of years. Saw them the next day on the ground along the walks. It was 47 in Victoria that day.

sails · 16 January 2013

explod said:
We did not get such wide ranging extremes as we are heading into now. A whole species of possum perished on B lack Saturday along Belcombe Creek Mount Martha where they had evolved over millions of years. Saw them the next day on the ground along the walks. It was 47 in Victoria that day.

Explod - do you ever look at history? While the black friday Victorian bushfires of 1939 with similar temps as the black saturday? And what about the 1851 where unofficial records show temps around 47?

These temperatures have been reached before. Once 160 years ago!! What do you think caused the mercury to climb so high then?

I know we have differing opinions, but please don't try to make this look like something we've never had before when a quick google search shows otherwise. It is this sort of subterfuge that is removing credibility, imo.

This from Wiki on the 1939 black friday fires:

In the days preceding the fires, the state capital Melbourne experienced some of its hottest temperatures on record at the time: 43.8 °C (110.8 °F) on 8 January and 44.7 °C (112.5 °F) on 10 January. On 13 January, the day of the fires, temperatures reached 45.6 °C (114.1 °F), which stood as the hottest day officially recorded in Melbourne for the next 70 years. (Unofficial records show temperatures of around 47 °C (117 °F) were reported on the Black Thursday fires of 6 February 1851).[2]

The summer of 1938–39 had been hot and dry, and several fires had broken out. By early January, fires were burning in a number of locations across the state. Then, on Friday 13 January, a strong northerly wind hit the state, causing several of the fires to combine into one massive front.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Friday_(1939)

explod · 16 January 2013

sails said:
Explod - do you ever look at history? While the black friday Victorian bushfires of 1939 with similar temps as the black saturday? And what about the 1851 where unofficial records show temps around 47?

These temperatures have been reached before. Once 160 years ago!! What do you think caused the mercury to climb so high then?

I know we have differing opinions, but please don't try to make this look like something we've never had before when a quick google search shows otherwise. It is this sort of subterfuge that is removing credibility, imo.

This from Wiki on the 1939 black friday fires:

In the days preceding the fires, the state capital Melbourne experienced some of its hottest temperatures on record at the time: 43.8 °C (110.8 °F) on 8 January and 44.7 °C (112.5 °F) on 10 January. On 13 January, the day of the fires, temperatures reached 45.6 °C (114.1 °F), which stood as the hottest day officially recorded in Melbourne for the next 70 years. (Unofficial records show temperatures of around 47 °C (117 °F) were reported on the Black Thursday fires of 6 February 1851).[2]

The summer of 1938–39 had been hot and dry, and several fires had broken out. By early January, fires were burning in a number of locations across the state. Then, on Friday 13 January, a strong northerly wind hit the state, causing several of the fires to combine into one massive front.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Friday_(1939)

Sorry for that

The early 2009 southeastern Australia heat wave was a heat wave that commenced in late January and led to record-breaking prolonged high temperatures in the region. The heat wave is considered one of the, if not the, most extreme in the region's history.[2] During the heat wave, fifty separate locations set various records for consecutive, highest daytime and overnight temperatures. The highest temperature recorded during the heat wave was 48.8 °C (119.8 °F) in Hopetoun, Victoria, a record for the state.[3] Many locations through the region recorded all-time high temperatures including capital cities Adelaide, which reached its third-highest temperature, 45.7 °C (114.3 °F), and Melbourne, which recorded its highest ever temperature on record, 46.4 °C (115.5 °F). Both cities broke records for the most consecutive days over 40 °C (104 °F), while Mildura, Victoria recorded an all time record twelve consecutive days over 40 °C (104 °F).

A record for the state they said

sails · 16 January 2013

explod said:
Sorry for that

A record for the state they said

Explod - I'm not denying the current heat waves, I'm just mystified why there seems to be an attempt to make it sound worse than we have had in the past.

47 Degrees in victoria 160 years ago couldn't be due to industrialisation level we have now. Why do you think it got so hot then?

And I well remember the 1972 heat wave as I had a two month old baby to keep cool for nearly two weeks. That was 40 years ago and aircons were not common back then.

explod · 16 January 2013

sails said:
47 Degrees in victoria 160 years ago couldn't be due to industrialisation level we have now. Why do you think it got so hot then?

Agree and the point is pedantic. However a high back then of 47 against 48.8 now is a rise of 1.8

Scientists are saying just one degree average is of enormous concern.

That is why the vibe or anecdotal to me is the only way I think a layman can come to grips with it. As a long time watcher of the land and the weather I see huge changes and they do not look too good.

But that's me.

basilio · 16 January 2013

It is important to recognise what scientists are saying about actual and projected temperature rises.

An increase in the average world wide temperature of 1 degree C represents an enormous increase in the total heat energy on earth. It is this overall increase in heat energy that increase evaporation, dries soils much more than normal, warms the oceans, incresaes the energy levels of storms.

One off temperature records with extremely high readings do not represent this amount of extra heat energy.

When looking at the breaking of temperature records in Australia this month the most critical observations are the length of the heat waves and the very big jump in average daily temperature. These show just how widespread the change in climate is happening.

As Explod points out the cold extremes happening around the world are likely to be part of the change in weather systems created by the overall global warming. Weather and climate are complex.

burglar · 17 January 2013

Calliope said:
You once told me you didn't worry about things you couldn't do anything about.

I think you were worried there for a while about the hotapocolypse.

Another stinker in Adelaide today!

"Adelaide 43 °"

Some Dude · 17 January 2013

sails said:
If AGW were real, there should be no need for subterfuge. Truth can stand on it's own.

Very true, assuming your perception of any given individual is correct, do you think that is then representative of all, or even the majority, of climate scientists?

How do you feel about AGW coverage in The Australian's over the last 1-2 weeks with regard to truth etc?

A interesting graph from NASA regarding temperature anomalies in the US since 1895. Further global temperature anomalies can be found here (NASA).

noco · 17 January 2013

Some Dude said:
Very true, assuming your perception of any given individual is correct, do you think that is then representative of all, or even the majority, of climate scientists?

How do you feel about AGW coverage in The Australian's over the last 1-2 weeks with regard to truth etc?

A interesting graph from NASA regarding temperature anomalies in the US since 1895. Further global temperature anomalies can be found here (NASA).

View attachment 50474

Even Hanson from NASA concedes there has been no increase in gobal temperautres in the last 16 tears.

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/.../even_hansen_concedes_a_pause_in_the_warming/

Some Dude · 17 January 2013

noco said:
Even Hanson from NASA concedes there has been no increase in gobal temperautres in the last 16 tears.

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/.../even_hansen_concedes_a_pause_in_the_warming/

I followed through to the study by Dr James Hansen.

Dr James Hansen said:
The 5-year running mean of global temperature has been flat for the past decade. It should be noted that the "standstill" temperature is at a much higher level than existed at any year in the prior decade except for the single year 1998, which had the strongest El Niño of the century. However, the standstill has led to a widespread assertion that "global warming has stopped". Examination of this matter requires consideration of the principal climate forcing mechanisms that can drive climate change and the effects of stochastic (unforced) climate variability.

...

A slower growth rate of the net climate forcing may have contributed to the standstill of global temperature in the past decade, but it cannot explain the standstill, because it is known that the planet has been out of energy balance, more energy coming in from the sun than energy being radiated to space.

The planetary energy imbalance is due largely to the increase of climate forcings in prior decades and the great thermal inertia of the ocean. The more important factor in the standstill is probably unforced dynamical variability, essentially climatic "noise".

...

Indeed, the current stand-still of the 5-year running mean global temperature may be largely a consequence of the fact that the first half of the past 10 years had predominately El Niño conditions, while the second half had predominately La Nina conditions (Nino index in Fig. 1). Comparing the global temperature at the time of the most recent three La Ninas (1999-2000, 2008, and 2011-2012), it is apparent that global temperature has continued to rise between recent years of comparable tropical temperature, indeed, at a rate of warming similar to that of the previous three decades. We conclude that background global warming is continuing, consistent with the known planetary energy imbalance, even though it is likely that the slowdown in climate forcing growth rate contributed to the recent apparent standstill in global temperature.

Always go to the source.

sydboy007 · 17 January 2013

sails said:
Explod, we have always had hot and cold extremes. This is what I find dishonest about AGW is trying to pretend that extremes which have always been with us are now something new.

So what caused the extreme heat and cold 100 - 200 - 300 - 500+ years ago? Not much industrialisation to blame then AND much few people on earth.

The use of extreme weather (which has always been around) to support AGW doesn't hold water, imo.

And, if we are experiencing heat waves and other countries are experiencing record cold, surely that averages out that the globe is not heating overall?

I'm waiting for when the gulf stream finally stops - they've already detected a marked decrease in the water flow and have recorded several virtual stops. It's the main reason the UK has such a temperate climate compared to other countries in the same latitude.

My understanding of global warming is that while warming will occur over the planet:

* the warming will occur most at the poles and high latitudes

* weather extremes will occur more often - so much colder and hotter extremes.

Cyclone Sandy is a prime example of what happens. When you have trillions of liters of water 0.6c warmer than usual, well I don't know how to express that in energy, but you can see what that can do over a huge area.

I'm expecting somewhere between 2025-2035 that the issue will be finally resolved because what we now call extreme will be considered at the upper end of normal.

The focusing on singular events in my mind is very disengenous. To say a heat wave or a cald snap is ALL about global warming is wrong, and I would doubt any serious proponents would say this.

Are the extremes so extrememe and occuring more often because of global warming. I certainly believe so.

Do I care? Not anymore. I've got probably 40 or 50 years left and no children or grandchildren to worry about. AFAIC if we change our environment to the point where modern "civilisation" is no longer viable, then hopefully the next species to come along wont make the same mistakes

Calliope · 17 January 2013

sydboy007 said:
Do I care? Not anymore. I've got probably 40 or 50 years left and no children or grandchildren to worry about. AFAIC if we change our environment to the point where modern "civilisation" is no longer viable, then hopefully the next species to come along wont make the same mistakes

+1. I have grandchildren, but they couldn't care less. This is one of them.

basilio · 18 January 2013

The Bureau of Meteorology has spelt out how extreme the recent heat wave has been in Australia in terms of the temperatures reached, the extent of the heat and the duration of the weather.

The article examines the historical context of the heat wave and then explains in detail how Climate Change has intensified the results.

http://theconversation.edu.au/whats-causing-australias-heat-wave-11628

And does anyone know that Sydney just smashed its Summer heat record ?

Resisting Climate Hysteria

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