Resisting Climate Hysteria

[Calliope]

This should be the theme song of the High Priests of Global Warming assembled in Copenhagen

 

[wayneL]

Carbon implicated in warming.... well, yes. But not the CO2 type carbon.

As you all know, I've always argued against significant climate change as a result of co2 in the atmosphere, but all but the most putrid dealers in ad hominem slur (such our dear departed "friend" 2020) will recognise my and most other climate sceptic's concerns over general pollution, it's affect on the Earth, and yes, its effect on regional climate.

Below is a classic example of a phenomenon the Goreists have been all too keen to blame on co2, when in fact it is another form of carbon - SOOT! (AKA black carbon)

The politicization of science has removed the line between a pollutant (black carbon) and a non-pollutant (co2). This the same way that there are polluting forms of hydrogen molecules, such as Hydrogen Sulphide (h2s) and non polluting forms, such as Dihydrogen Oxide (h2o)(AKA WATER).

Both molecules contain two hydrogen ions, with the other ion making a significant difference.

Anyway here is the article from Pielke Snr:

Soot Effects On Climate In The Himalayas – Its Larger Than the Forcing From The Human Input Of CO2

This news study reinforces the conclusion that a broader perspective of the role of humans in the climate system is needed, and that the radiative effect of CO2 may not the dominate human role as concluded by the IPCC report and as being discussed in Copenhagen./QUOTE]

 

[ghotib]

Thanks Wayne. This is an excellent example of why it's useful to keep reading beyond Pielke Sr..

1. His commentary is wrong about Copenhagen http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=2989:

COP15 quietly addressing other half of the emissions problem
While all media attention is on carbon dioxide, negotiators have not forgotten the greenhouse gases that are believed to constitute the other half of man’s contribution to global warming.
Morten Andersen 14/12/2009 22:10

Changes in countries’ positions on reducing their emissions of carbon dioxide are widely reported on an almost daily basis. In contrast, five other substances also meant to be regulated under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are seldom mentioned. This is a bit strange, as they together account for a manmade contribution to climate change just as big as that of carbon dioxide. And for some of these substances, a reduction in emissions would yield fast results.
...

Three substances are currently in focus. These are methane which is released from coal mines, landfills and agriculture; black carbon, which is soot from incompletely burned fossil fuels and biomass; and hydrofluorocarbon chemicals (HFCs) which are widely used in refrigerators and air conditioners ...

2. His commentary implies that the IPCC reports ignored black carbon. They didn't. Its distribution and effects were and are the subject of major research. This article is an indication of what was thought in 2007, how that had changed since 1990, and the work that Lau built on for the paper Pielke refers to.
http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/2009/07/black-carbon-and-global-warming/

... Although emissions of black carbon are concentrated in the tropics, they have a strong forcing influence in snow-covered areas because of albedo effects: black carbon that falls onto snow and ice covered surfaces absorbs rather than reflects sunlight, warming the surface and causing melting.

A number of scientific studies have found that black carbon may be responsible for as much ice and snow melt as greenhouse gas emissions in the Arctic and for springtime snow in Eurasia. The distribution of black carbon emissions is somewhat important because of its relatively short atmospheric lifetime. Emissions near Arctic areas or other areas with year-round snow cover will have a stronger albedo impact than emissions in the tropics, as more black carbon will fall onto the ice.

Given the concentration of these emissions in Asia, especially those associated with home cook fires having dire local air pollution effects, there is considerable room to focus on reducing black carbon emissions as part of international development projects. Projects like distributing or subsidizing inexpensive but efficient cook stoves for rural areas could help reduce premature mortality resulting from air pollution and also reduce black carbon emissions.

Controlling these emissions from industrial sources is somewhat more complicated, as many of the technologies to clean up black carbon will also reduce sulphate aerosol emissions, and therefore counteract some of the reduction in climate forcings.

Recent and ongoing research on the large role of black carbon emissions in contributing to atmospheric warming is another reminder that the issue is more complicated than CO2 emissions alone, and that cleaning up other forcings like black carbon may prove less expensive, more politically viable, and more effective in the short-term while other strategies are developed and implemented to address longer-term concerns.

Incidentally, I note that Lau's work is all about modelling. Pielke's exerpt does not include these paragraphs http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/himalayan-warming.html

Building on work by Veerabhardran Ramanathan of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, Calif., Lau and colleagues conducted modeling experiments that simulated the movement of air masses in the region from 2000 to 2007. They also made detailed numerical analyses of how soot particles and other aerosols absorb heat from the sun.

"Field campaigns with ground observations are already underway with more planned to test Lau’s modeling results," said Hal Maring who manages the Radiation Sciences program at NASA Headquarters in Washington. "But even at this stage we should be compelled to take notice."

Cheers,
Ghoti

 

[wayneL]

Thanks Wayne. This is an excellent example of why it's useful to keep reading beyond Pielke Sr..

1. His commentary is wrong about Copenhagen http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=2989:

2. His commentary implies that the IPCC reports ignored black carbon. They didn't. Its distribution and effects were and are the subject of major research. This article is an indication of what was thought in 2007, how that had changed since 1990, and the work that Lau built on for the paper Pielke refers to.
http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/2009/07/black-carbon-and-global-warming/


Incidentally, I note that Lau's work is all about modelling. Pielke's exerpt does not include these paragraphs http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/himalayan-warming.html


Cheers,
Ghoti

Ghoti,

I think you've taken the wrong message from Pielke's comment and is needlessly defensive. If you read Pielke Snr you would know that...

...and a lesser man would take offence at your "wayneL only reads Pielke" innuendo. I'll just marvel at the capacity for warmists to add ad hominem all the time. Subtle though, not quite so obnoxious as some other posters.

 

[ghotib]

Ghoti,

I think you've taken the wrong message from Pielke's comment and is needlessly defensive. If you read Pielke Snr you would know that...

Defensive? That's not how I felt. A bit weary perhaps, because I've read enough Pielke Snr (and I admit that I sometimes get Snr and Jnr confused) to feel that this blog has a very strong pattern of... um.... incomplete commentary. A blog is personal; he's entitled to express his opinions and to be selective about what he discusses. I have found that his selectiveness consistently misrepresents the IPCC reports and processes. From my personal point of view that's been useful: I probably wouldn't have read nearly as much as I have if I hadn't been confronted with so many contradictions and questions. From the perspective of political decisions I think it's very unfortunate.

...and a lesser man would take offence at your "wayneL only reads Pielke" innuendo. I'll just marvel at the capacity for warmists to add ad hominem all the time. Subtle though, not quite so obnoxious as some other posters.

... and a lesser woman would remind you that you once said, possibly in this very thread, that you were content to rely on Pielke (unspecified, or possibly not remembered) because he knows the science

I dunno Wayne. When it comes to actions we're probably in furious agreement about 80% or more of what needs doing. In practice the Greenie mantra of "Reduce; Reuse; Recycle" would work to improve everything except economic growth, and as Smurf has pointed out more than once the assumption of infinite economic growth is a core problem.

Cheers,

Ghoti

 

[derty]

Monbiot and Plimer finally get to have somewhat of a debate on Lateline. While I still haven't read Plimer's book I found Plimer's total avoidance at answering any question directed to him about claims in his book to be extremely frustrating.

http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200912/r487279_2511549.asx

 

[wayneL]

From all our favourite Lord , The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley :

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/...achauris-eye-opening-copenhagen-presentation/

 

[Julia]

Monbiot and Plimer finally get to have somewhat of a debate on Lateline. While I still haven't read Plimer's book I found Plimer's total avoidance at answering any question directed to him about claims in his book to be extremely frustrating.

http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200912/r487279_2511549.asx

I agree, derty. I found Professor Plimer's book much more persuasive than his physical presence or his argument last night.
It wasn't helped by Tony Jones' inability (or unwillingness?) to keep the discussion under control.
Pathetic all round.

 

[drsmith]

It wasn't helped by Tony Jones' inability (or unwillingness?) to keep the discussion under control.
Pathetic all round.

I lost interest well before it ended.

 

[Glen48]

Never fear the Aussies are here:

Australians going to Copenhagen
You and I missed out on this one. Your name is not on the list either.

You would think that in these days of instantaneous international communications the vast majority of the listed gravy-train free-loaders could have stayed at home and provided all of the advice necessary from their offices supported by their staff, libraries and data bases. Canberra's carbon footprint must been down to almost nothing for the duration of the Copenhagen talk fest.



How is this for wasting money!

The list below, is the 114 Australian going to Copenhagen, flights, accommodation and meals all paid for, by every TAX payer in this country. I thought Kevin Rudd and Penny Wong were trying to cut greenhouse gases, sorry I forgot it’s only applies to the peasants.


To see which Australians are oinking at the Copenhagen smorgasboard, read on and marvel:

Australia
H.E. Mr. Kevin Michael Rudd
Prime Minister

H.E. Ms. Penelope Wong
Minister, Climate Change and Water
Office of the Minister for Climate Change and Water

H.E. Ms. Louise Helen Hand
Ambassador for Climate Change
Department of Climate Change

Mr. David Fredericks
Deputy Chief of Staff
Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet

Mr. Philip Green Oam
Senior Policy Adviser, Foreign Affairs
Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet

Mr. Andrew Charlton
Senior Adviser
Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet

Mr. Lachlan Harris
Senior Press Secretary
Prime Minister’s Office
Office of Prime Minister

Mr. Scott Dewar
Senior Adviser
Office of Prime Minister

Ms. Clare Penrose
Adviser
Office of Prime Minister

Ms. Fiona Sugden
Media Adviser
Office of Prime Minister

Ms. Lisa French
Office of the Prime Minister
Office of Prime Minister

Mr. Jeremy Hilman
Adviser
Office of Prime Minister

Ms. Tarah Barzanji
Adviser
Office of Prime Minister

Mr. Kate Shaw
Executive Secretary
Office of Prime Minister

Ms. Gaile Barnes
Executive Assistant
Office of Prime Minister

Ms. Gordon de Brouwer
Deputy Secretary
Prime Minister and Cabinet

Mr. Patrick Suckling
First Assistant Secretary, International Division
Prime Minister and Cabinet

Ms. Rebecca Christie
Prime Minister’s Office

Mr. Michael Jones
Official Photographer
Prime Minister and Cabinet

Mr. Stephan Rudzki

Mr. David Bell
Federal Agent
Australian Federal Police

Ms. Kym Baillie
Australian Federal Police

Mr. David Champion
Australian Federal Police

Mr. Matt Jebb
Federal Agent
Australian Federal Police

Mr. Craig Kendall
Federal Agent
Australian Federal Police

Mr. Ian Lane
Squadron Leader Staff,
Officer VIP Operations

Mr. John Olenich
Media Adviser / Adviser to Minister Wong
Office of the Minister for Climate Change and Water

Ms. Kristina Hickey
Adviser to Minister Wong
Office of the Minister for Climate Change and Water

Mr. Martin Parkinson
Secretary
Department of Climate Change

Mr. Howard Bamsey
Special Envoy for Climate Change
Department of Climate Change

Mr. Robert Owen-Jones
Assistant Secretary, International Division
Department of Climate Change

Ms. Clare Walsh
Assistant Secretary, International Division
Department of Climate Change

Ms. Jenny Elizabeth Wilkinson
Policy Advisor
Department of Climate Change

Ms. Elizabeth Mary Peak
Principal Legal Adviser, International Climate Law
Department of Climate Change

Ms. Kristin Tilley
Director, Multilateral Negotiations
International Division
Department of Climate Change

Mr. Andrew Ure
Acting Director, Multilateral Negotiations International Division
Department of Climate Change

Ms. Annemarie Watt
Director, Land Sector Negotiations International Division
Department of Climate Change

Ms. Kushla Munro
Director, International Forest Carbon Section
International Division
Department of Climate Change

Ms. Kathleen Annette Rowley
Director, Strategic and Technical Analysis
Department of Climate Change

Ms. Anitra Cowan
Assistant Director, Multilateral Negotiations
Department of Climate Change

Ms. Sally Truong
Assisting Director, Multilateral Negotiations
International Division
Department of Climate Change

Ms. Jane Wilkinson
Assistant Director
Department of Climate Change

Ms. Tracey Mackay
Assistant Director
International Division
Department of Climate Change

Ms. Laura Brown
Assistant Director, Multilateral Negotiations
International Division
Department of Climate Change

 

[Glen48]

But wait there is more:

Ms. Tracey-Anne Leahey
Delegation Manager
Department of Climate Change

Ms. Nicola Loffler
Senior Legal Adviser, International Climate Law
Department of Climate Change

Ms. Tamara Curll
Legal Adviser, International Climate Law
Department of Climate Change

Ms. Jessica Allen
Legal Support Officer
Department of Climate Change

Mr. Sanjiva de Silva
Legal Adviser, International Climate Law
Department of Climate Change

Ms. Gaia Puleston
Political Adviser
Department of Climate Change

Ms. Penelope Jane Morton
Policy Adviser, Multilateral Negotiations (UNFCCC)
International Division
Department of Climate Change

Ms. Claire Elizabeth Watt
Policy Advisor
Department of Climate Change

Ms. Amanda Walker
Policy Officer, Multilateral Negotiations
Department of Climate Change

Mr. Alan David Lee
Policy Adviser, Land Sector Negotiations
Department of Climate Change

Ms. Erika Kate Oord
Australian Stakeholder Manager
Department of Climate Change

Mr. Jahda Kirian Swanborough
Communications Manager
Ministerial Communication
Department of Climate Change

H.E. Mr. Sharyn Minahan
Ambassador
DFAT
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Denmark

Ms. Julia Feeney
Director, Climate Change and Environment
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade

Mr. Chester Geoffrey Cunningham
Second Secretary
DFAT
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Germany

Ms. Rachael Virginia Cooper
Executive Officer, Climate Change and Environment
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade

Ms. Rachael Grivas
Executive Officer, Environment Branch
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade

Moya Elyn Collett
Desk officer, Climate Change and Environment Section
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade

Mr. Rob Law
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade

Mr. Robin Davies
Assistant Director General, Sustainable Development Group
Australian Agency for International Development

Ms. Deborah Fulton
Director, Policy and Global Environment
Australian Agency for International Development
Australia (continued)

Ms. Katherine Renee Ann Vaughn
Policy Advisor, Policy and Global Environment
Australian Agency for International Development

Mr. Brian Dawson
Policy Adviser
Australian Agency for International Development

Mr. Andrew Leigh Clarke
Deputy Secretary
Department of Resources Development,
Western Australia

Mr. Bruce Wilson
General Manager, Environment Energy and Environment Division
Department of Resources Development,
Western Australia

Ms. Jill McCarthy
Policy Adviser
Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism

Mr. Simon French
Policy Adviser
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry

Mr. Ian Michael Ruscoe
Policy Adviser
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry

Mr. David Walland
Acting Superintendent, National Climate Centre
Bureau of Meteorology

Mr. Damien Dunn
Senior Policy Adviser
The Australian Treasury

Ms. Helen Hawka Fuhrman
Policy Officer, Renewable Energy Policy and Partnerships

Mr. Scott Vivian Davenport
Chief Economics
NSW Department of Industry and Investment

Mr. Graham Julian Levitt
Policy Manager, Climate Change
NSW Department of Industry and Investment

Ms. Kate Jennifer Jones
Minister, Climate Change and Sustainability
Queensland Government

Mr. Michael William Dart
Principal Policy Advisor
Office of the Hon. Kate Jones MP
Queensland Government

Mr. Matthew Anthony Jamie Skoien
Senior Director, Office of Climate Change
Queensland Government

Mr. Michael David Rann
Premier, South Australia
Department of Premier and Cabinet,
Southern Australia

Ms. Suzanne Kay Harter
Adviser
Department of Premier and Cabinet,
Southern Australia

Mr. Paul David Flanagan
Manager, Communications
Government of South Australia

Mr. Timothy William O’Loughlin
Deputy Chief Executive, Sustainability and Workforce Management
Department of Premier and Cabinet
South Australian Government

Ms. Nyla Sarwar
M.Sc Student
Linacre College
University of Oxford

Mr. Gavin Jennings
Minister, Environment and Climate Change and Innovation,
Victorian Government

Ms. Sarah Broadbent
Sustainability Adviser

Ms. Rebecca Falkingham
Senior Adviser
Victoria Government/Office of Climate Change

Mr. Simon Camroux
Policy Adviser
Energy Supply Association of Australia Limited

Mr. Geoff Lake
Adviser
Australian Local Government Association

Sridhar Ayyalaraju
Post Visit Controller
DFAT
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Denmark

Mr. Tegan Brink
Deputy Visit Controller and Security Liaison Officer
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Denmark

Ms. Melissa Eu Suan Goh
Transport Liaison Officer and Consul
DFAT
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Denmark

Ms. Lauren Henschke
Support Staff
DFAT
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Denmark

Ms. Maree Fay
Accommodation Liaison Officer
DFAT
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Denmark

Ms. Patricia McKinnon
Communications Officer
DFAT
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Denmark

Eugene Olim
Paasport / Baggage Liaison Officer
DFAT
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Denmark

Ms. Belinda Lee Adams

Ms. Jacqui Ashworth
Media Liaison Officer
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Denmark

Ms. Patricia Smith
Media Liaison Officer
DFAT
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Denmark

Mr. Martin Bo Jensen
Research and Public Diplomatic Officer
DFAT
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Denmark

Mr. Mauro Kolobaric
Consular Support
DFAT
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Denmark

Ms. Susan Flanagan
Consular Support
DFAT
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Denmark

Mr. Stephen Kanaridis
IT Support Officer
DFAT
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Denmark
Australia (continued)

Mr. George Reid
Support Staff
DFAT
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Denmark

Ms. Ashley Wright
Support Staff
DFAT
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Denmark

Ms. Jodie Littlewood
Support Staff
DFAT
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Denmark

Mr. Thomas Millhouse
Support Staff
DFAT
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Denmark

Mr. Timothy Whittley
Support Staff Driver
DFAT
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Denmark

Ms. Julia Thomson
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Denmark

Mr. Donald Frater
Chief of Staff to Minister Wong
Office of the Minister for Climate Change and Water

Ms. Jacqui Smith
Media Liaison
DFAT
Diplomatic Mission of Australia to Denmark

Mr. Greg French
Senior Legal Advisor, Environment
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade

Mr. Jeremy Hillman
Advisor
PMO

 

[Smurf1976]

Some of those people would seem reasonable to attend such a gathering, but the only reason I can see for state governments to be involved is if they don't fully support the Australian Government's position on the issue, a rather interesting concept given that in most cases it's the same party in office.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Thanks for that list Glen. I'm surprised there are so many Public Servants attending. I bet there is a nice serving of hanky panky.

On a more serious note, I do eagerly await the outcome of this historical event to see if what is spouted post Copenhagen resembles anything close to truth. See if they pass the ASF lie detectors.

 

[wayneL]

I agree, derty. I found Professor Plimer's book much more persuasive than his physical presence or his argument last night.
It wasn't helped by Tony Jones' inability (or unwillingness?) to keep the discussion under control.
Pathetic all round.

I think Tony Jones controlled the debate exactly how he wanted it to go.

Plimer has been called out on a few points in his book. Monbiot makes a big deal about it, but says nothing about the string of clangers in various pro warming publications, such as "An Inconvenient Truth" and a rich catalogue of nonsense by other pro warmers.

Unfortunately, the debate still centers around egos, reputations, vested interests and ulterior motives. Dispassionately examining the science comes last.

Monbiot made a claim that the science had hardened, when in fact it seems to, if anything, have softened in recent months as the largely unfunded agnostics (Not oil lobby outright deniers) sort through the hugely funded and resourced data of warmers and find numerous mistakes and deliberate distortions.

He tried the old conspiracy theorist straw man, easily refuted by Plimer.

He also dropped the "unequivocal" tag into the debate... anyone from either side of the debate who thinks anything to do with climate science is unequivocal is a blinking idiot.

What we should be trying to arrive at is a balance of probabilities consensus as we will never ever get "hard" science. The whole problem is that nobody is trying to balance the probabilities, preferring disaster scenarios, pandering to various economic and political interests and ensuring the continuation of funding.

I don't think Plimer has done any favours to that end by paying fast and loose with the facts, but it is unfortunate that the mainstream media don't apply the same sort of scrutiny to the IPCC, Gore et al. The agnostics can't play by the same rules - they must play fair, even as the warmists play dirty.

Gore has been spouting the most unimaginable nonsense at COP15 and is allowed to get off scott free. Only the blogosphere has called him out.

Where is the balance in MSM?

If they did that it would quickly become obvious that we are wasting time and resources on the wrong question at this time and missing the opportunity to do the planet (and us) some good in a myriad of other ways.

A pox on their houses and thank God for alternative media.

 

[wayneL]

If we torture the data long enough, it will confess. (Ronald Coase, Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences, 1991)

Here is a good article on the diabolical state of the long term surface temperature trend data set over land.

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/climat...ia-asheville-and-new-york-city-pjm-exclusive/

 

[ghotib]

Here is a good article on the diabolical state of the long term surface temperature trend data set over land.

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/climat...ia-asheville-and-new-york-city-pjm-exclusive/

Why do you call this a good article?

I ask because it's dated 15 Dec but it doesn't mention any of the explanations or responses to the allegations it repeats. They aren't hard to find - I posted one myself on one of these threads. They might not be convincing, but surely a good article would acknowledge that they exist, and a good Web article would link to at least some of them?

Cheers,
Ghoti

 

[wayneL]

Why do you call this a good article?

I ask because it's dated 15 Dec but it doesn't mention any of the explanations or responses to the allegations it repeats. They aren't hard to find - I posted one myself on one of these threads. They might not be convincing, but surely a good article would acknowledge that they exist, and a good Web article would link to at least some of them?

Cheers,
Ghoti

Hang on! You're demanding that a media article provides refutations of itself to be a good article?

This is something that we have seen to be be actively and corruptly prevented deep in the bowels of the IPCC and the warmanista movement.

You must excuse me if I suspect double standards.

 

[Boggo]

Another bit of interesting reading...
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/...e-opening-copenhagen-presentation/#more-14254

 

[Julia]

Gore has been spouting the most unimaginable nonsense at COP15 and is allowed to get off scott free. Only the blogosphere has called him out.

Not quite right, Wayne. "The Australian" reported on it quite fully. And there have been other instances of reasonable balance in this paper.

 

[ghotib]

Hang on! You're demanding that a media article provides refutations of itself to be a good article?

I didn't say provide the refutations; I said acknowledge that they exist. Or at least that someone has tried, even if the author doesn't accept them. I particularly expect that when the author's academic or professional qualifications are prominently displayed in a way that lends authority to his statements.

Linking to refutations, even without commentary, would be something, but none of the links in this piece do that. Links to websites of the organisations that provided the data he's calling fraudulent would be something, but he doesn't do that either.

This is something that we have seen to be be actively and corruptly prevented deep in the bowels of the IPCC and the warmanista movement.

You must excuse me if I suspect double standards.

On the strength of this article? My question was why do you think it's a good article? To rephrase, what criteria are you using to assess it? At the moment you must excuse me if I suspect confirmation bias

I'd love to end on that note, but I want to thank you again for pushing me to think, this time about the criteria I use to assess information. Outtatime to post about that though.

Ghoti