Recovery Time For This Correction?

[constable]

Just curious as to peoples ideas on how long before the market will bounce back after this correction has run its course.
1-2 weeks or are we talking 1-2 months?
Are some sectors that were already toppy ie resources going to take longer?

 

[Realist]

12:40pm today is my guess.

If China opens up we're looking good.

If China plummets, I think I'll turn my computer off, turn my stereo on, and grab a large bottle of Jack Daniels...

 

[Caliente]

How about now - lol. Sure I'm haemorrhaging but it doesnt mean there isnt some nice opportunities hanging out right now!

Wanted to buy PDN for a while - picked it up cheap cheap this morning =)

On the other hand, across the board I've had about 3K wiped out elsewhere in a matter of minutes =(

 

[dragonball]

finally it is happening, been waiting for this, but still lost few thousands

 

[constable]

finally it is happening, been waiting for this, but still lost few thousands

After blowing out over 200 points it would seem ords is recovering somewhat at 176 points down.

 

[nizar]

12:40pm today is my guess.

If China opens up we're looking good.

If China plummets, I think I'll turn my computer off, turn my stereo on, and grab a large bottle of Jack Daniels...

I tend to agree.
If China plummets, then this correction will last for maybe 2-3 weeks.

So this carnage will either last 1 day or 2-3 weeks, no in betweens.

Alot of people are buying today for 2mrws bounce. If no bounce they will dump.

An hour to go.

 

[megla]

I'm having the time of my life, buying left right and centre. I think the bottom was hit a little while ago, because I've missed out on a few goodies that have jumped back up.

 

[nioka]

The saying that a week is along time in politics may be applicable here. A lot of todays fall has been generated by computer selling and stop loss orders which has a bushfire effect and the fire will soon be out. Good times are still ahead.

 

[Knobby22]

We should be strong but is the US? Continuing big falls over there are bound to reflect on our market.

 

[nizar]

I'm having the time of my life, buying left right and centre. I think the bottom was hit a little while ago, because I've missed out on a few goodies that have jumped back up.

I sincerely hope you are still having the time of your life 2mrw, my brave friend

 

[petervan]

Recovery will be quick if tommorows U.S new housing data is strong. If not we might be off the freeway and taking the back roads.

 

[constable]

Recovery will be quick if tommorows U.S new housing data is strong. If not we might be off the freeway and taking the back roads.

146 points down now ......bargains are being snapped up.

 

[The Mint Man]

12:40pm today is my guess.

If China opens up we're looking good.

If China plummets, I think I'll turn my computer off, turn my stereo on, and grab a large bottle of Jack Daniels...

mmmmm JACK :dance:
can I come around? :bier:
Ill bring my 1L bottle :alcohol:

 

[nizar]

146 points down now ......bargains are being snapped up.

Yep i agree.
60pts recovery in 2 hrs trading is impressive.

Usually such a correction feeds on itself. ie. selling begets more selling.
Maybe its just a one-day thing?

 

[Magdoran]

Just curious as to peoples ideas on how long before the market will bounce back after this correction has run its course.
1-2 weeks or are we talking 1-2 months?
Are some sectors that were already toppy ie resources going to take longer?

Hello constable,


If this is a major wave 3 top, then the wave 4 may well consolidate for quite some time once a bottom is reached, and may see some choppy markets for a while – maybe like the market post the May 10 2006 high…

I think this could be like the 1989 high (see chart), hence there may be some kind of consolidation in 18 days or less…

However if the Yen carry trade really goes to town, this could trigger a major meltdown that will last for a long period of time depending on how hard it hits the major players involved. It would make the multi billion dollar hit amaranth took look like a walk in the park – got to watch this as the Yen is flying up hard today.


Regards


Magdoran

P.S. cleaned out all my longs over a week ago…

Sorry can't post any charts for some reasons...

 

[constable]

Hello constable,


If this is a major wave 3 top, then the wave 4 may well consolidate for quite some time once a bottom is reached, and may see some choppy markets for a while – maybe like the market post the May 10 2006 high…

I think this could be like the 1989 high (see chart), hence there may be some kind of consolidation in 18 days or less…

However if the Yen carry trade really goes to town, this could trigger a major meltdown that will last for a long period of time depending on how hard it hits the major players involved. It would make the multi billion dollar hit amaranth took look like a walk in the park – got to watch this as the Yen is flying up hard today.


Regards


Magdoran

P.S. cleaned out all my longs over a week ago…

Sorry can't post any charts for some reasons...

Thank you Magdoran,
I have read about the cheap money coming from the yen trade and is a little scary to say the least!

 

[Magdoran]

Thank you Magdoran,
I have read about the cheap money coming from the yen trade and is a little scary to say the least!

Indeed, constable,


What many people misunderstand is the house of cards nature of this kind of trade, where significant downside exists if the Yen appreciates strongly since so many players are short the Yen. What is important about this is the question about how much this will effect many organisations since derivatives are often hidden off the books.

This was at the root of the demise of Enron (amongst other things), hence if this scenario pans out, the financial impact may be substantial, and long lasting, torpedoing a great many companies.


Regards


Magdoran

P.S. Wish I could post the chart to show people what corrections looked like in the past for some ideas of how this may pan out.

 

[ducati916]

Mag's

You won't see the Carry trade unwind in the stockmarket as much as the BOND market

But as yields jump in the Bonds, so will the stockmarket continue to weaken and crumble.

A one day mini-crash like today gives you warning............
Go to cash or Market Neutral strategies.

If you can't, or don't know how to go market neutral, then cash may be a better alternative.

If you had your shares from 2/3yrs ago, and they are good dividend payers, relax and hang on.

jog on
d998

 

[Magdoran]

Mag's

You won't see the Carry trade unwind in the stockmarket as much as the BOND market

But as yields jump in the Bonds, so will the stockmarket continue to weaken and crumble.

A one day mini-crash like today gives you warning............
Go to cash or Market Neutral strategies.

If you can't, or don't know how to go market neutral, then cash may be a better alternative.

If you had your shares from 2/3yrs ago, and they are good dividend payers, relax and hang on.

jog on
d998

Agree, but still think this may have a longer term bearish effect to be considered...

 

[CanOz]

Agree, but still think this may have a longer term bearish effect to be considered...

I think you and Duc would be best to give us some light as to the various unwinding scenarious that may take place around the globe.....to me, a big drop like this should have rippling effects into hedge funds that would for huge losses.

Would this take days and weeks to settle?

Cheers,