Record low unemployment because...

[wayneL]

Ive been watching the "bursting bubble" discussion since inception of this site.

There seems to be an obsession with "why,when,how".

Yet few seem to be taking full advantage of 2 yrs of fantastic opportunity and 8 yrs (if youve been a member of other sites Reefcap).
Property,business and trading.

Simply become involved and set risk stratagies and enjoy!!

Discussion on bursting bubbles certainly does not mean a/ an obsession b/ not trading the current conditions to the long side, that's a straw man argument.

However, nobody with half a brain can deny that there IS a bubble in both asset prices and credit. There is a real possibility of systemic financial failure in the world economy... ever heard of "cascading cross defaults?"

Discussion of such is centered around protecting oneself from the eventuality (or whatever other straw breaks the camel's back), perhaps profiting from it, and certainly looking forward to the next cycle.

We need only look back to the several price shocks of the last century to see so many bull market geniuses wiped out by the same.

Short of paranoia, it is valid and valuable discussion and anyone who doesn't think so, has their head rather impossibly stuck where there is no sunlight.

Cheers

 

[Santob]

Plus lets not forget that Howard has reduced the size of the goalposts in his definition of "unemployed"..no wonder there's fewer scored now.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Think that after I`ve experienced 10 + years in the markets I won`t be still flying around with my finger on the eject button.

What gives with the nervous pilot thing?

 

[Spaghetti]

I lived in the US for quite a number of years and I can see us headed that way. Hasn't hurt the economy of the US having working poor, perhaps even assisted it. Well sure of it.

It may make us all richer, but some of our grandkids may find themselves on the wrong side of the tracks. Well sure of it.

 

[wayneL]

Think that after I`ve experienced 10 + years in the markets I won`t be still flying around with my finger on the eject button.

What gives with the nervous pilot thing?

Would your finger be hovering over the button if you knew you were leaking fuel and the oil pressure was low?

A good pilot doesn't just fly. He is hopefully cognizant of each and every risk that may end his life and takes steps to mitigate. When the fuel is low or there is a huge thunderstorm, he will put down ASAP in order to avert disaster.

A really good pilot will put down where he knows there is a good pub and old girlfriend.

 

[arminius]

i dunno mate, i think its more of an awareness thing. im not an economist, but there are unprecedented forces at work that will one day bring things to a head.
personally, and just keep this between you and me, i think everything will go swimmingly until at least after the bejeing. beijing. next olympics, whence things will begin again. supply and demand.
the example of lolypop men is just an indication that things are unbalanced in our society and in my experience, things that are off-balance cannot be maintained.
eg: kids in school may think, why study my guts out when i can leave now and earn buku dollars driving, or stopping trucks. down the track, we as a nation may have a shortfall of highly educated people to keep us in first world status, especially considering the exporting of our intelligence via thousands of full-fee paying asian students.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Would your finger be hovering over the button if you knew you were leaking fuel and the oil pressure was low?

A good pilot doesn't just fly. He is hopefully cognizant of each and every risk that may end his life and takes steps to mitigate. When the fuel is low or there is a huge thunderstorm, he will put down ASAP in order to avert disaster.

We all have the would , if , hope , may , when , etcetera in our evaluations of the situations.This is good.

Reminds me of Richard Bach this bit.If only I could fly.

A really good pilot will put down where he knows there is a good pub and old girlfriend.

:topic ooops, sorry.

 

[wayneL]

Seeing as we seem to be into allegories tonight, the best one for the current situation is the RMS Titanic.

The biggest, fastest, most luxurious, most prestigious ship, with the richest and most famous passengers of its time. It sailed out on its maiden voyage amid much fanfare with really one overriding gaol. To navigate the Trans-Atlantic crossing in record time.

Ignoring all the warnings of icebergs on the more northerly course, she failed to either a) slow down or b) take a longer more southerly route. Not only that, apparently the ships hull steel had been improperly tempered, making it more brittle.

Both ignoring, and/or incognizant of the real risks of pursuing the record under the prevailing conditions, they felt invincible, indestructible, unsinkable.

They were wrong. The rest, as they say, is history.

Had they have just slowed down and/ or taken a different route, they wouldn't have had the gold star of breaking the record on its maiden voyage, but the Titanic may have sailed on gloriously for years and may even have still been around today.

 

[Julia]

eg: kids in school may think, why study my guts out when i can leave now and earn buku dollars driving, or stopping trucks. s.

I don't think so. There will always be the multi-generational belief in the value of education, not just for the sake of acquiring a job.
Just as there will always be multi-generational layers of people on the dole who never have any intention of getting themselves either an education or a job.

 

[wayneL]

More allegorical maritime misadventures.

One of the best songs ever written (IMHO)

The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald - Gordon Lightfoot

 

[Santob]

Australia is and will continue to be the richest third world country on the planet, the first world lifestyle has only existed because of the way that the wealth has been managed and distributed.. If Australia chooses to continue heading down a lassiez faire path (ala USA style, where 5% of the population controls 90% of the wealth) don't expect to be able to continue living in the precious first world standards that we have.

My five pesos worth.

 

[Rafa]

Australia is and will continue to be the richest third world country on the planet, the first world lifestyle has only existed because of the way that the wealth has been managed and distributed..

that is a fascinating point...
this certainly can't go on forever...

 

[Wysiwyg]

Australia is and will continue to be the richest third world country on the planet, the first world lifestyle has only existed because of the way that the wealth has been managed and distributed.. If Australia chooses to continue heading down a lassiez faire path (ala USA style, where 5% of the population controls 90% of the wealth) don't expect to be able to continue living in the precious first world standards that we have.

My five pesos worth.

How`s it goin Santob.......To the point .... what makes Australia a third world country?My lifestyle hasn`t varied to any great extent in the last 26 years of working life.If anything the recent bull run in the rock movers has opened up more opportunities to those who want more.Don`t understand the third world tag for oz.

 

[arminius]

julia,
there will always be a small percentage, like you say, who will grow up and live on welfare. we will discount them in this discusion like we will discount the small percantage at the other end of the socio-economic scale.
there seems to be a consensus here that things are not quite right.

personally, i think the powers that be are trying to dumb down our society. it makes us easier to control, easier for them to do whatever they like.

i know some right wingers will say 'yeah right', but think about it for a while. media and education policy are the key.

what was the original question? oh yeah...the economy is on resource steroids. thank you asia.

 

[moXJO]

julia,
there will always be a small percentage, like you say, who will grow up and live on welfare. we will discount them in this discusion like we will discount the small percantage at the other end of the socio-economic scale.
there seems to be a consensus here that things are not quite right.

personally, i think the powers that be are trying to dumb down our society. it makes us easier to control, easier for them to do whatever they like.

i know some right wingers will say 'yeah right', but think about it for a while. media and education policy are the key.

what was the original question? oh yeah...the economy is on resource steroids. thank you asia.

And wasn’t there an over supply of IT professionals during the last tech boom. I think its more a case of supply and demand. There is a shortage of tradies and other blue collar workers due to the mining boom atm thus boosting wages. And I’m sure the geologist, engineers etc are making a killing.

 

[Wysiwyg]

And wasn’t there an over supply of IT professionals during the last tech boom. I think its more a case of supply and demand. There is a shortage of tradies and other blue collar workers due to the mining boom atm thus boosting wages. And I’m sure the geologist, engineers etc are making a killing.

Something to note out of the rise in wages to compensate for GST and other fringe taxes is that the workers wages will not decline.When things return to normal workers will compete for jobs but wages will not decline!

 

[chops_a_must]

And I’m sure the geologist, engineers etc are making a killing.

Not necessarily.

A lot of geologists are leaving because they are getting paid less than the drillers etc. that they work with, despite the difference in education levels (this was the case at BHP's Cannington mine in Queensland as I understand it). Just more evidence of the value Australia puts on education.

 

[explod]

Because some of us speak of doom does not say that as traders we are not in the meantime benefiting from strong tends and good short term fundamentals. Where opportunity knocks... so to speak.

However the real big doom/gloom is that if the poor seasonal conditions throughout the world in agricultural areas continue there will be no more bred to feed even the employed. When everyone in China and India have a motor car (and they are entitiled because we did) there will be no air to breathe. Those times my friends are much closer than anyone wants to admit. JMHO

 

[moXJO]

Not necessarily.

A lot of geologists are leaving because they are getting paid less than the drillers etc. that they work with, despite the difference in education levels (this was the case at BHP's Cannington mine in Queensland as I understand it). Just more evidence of the value Australia puts on education.

Is that a case that there’s more risk in one then the other. An experienced driller would probably be paid more then a nub geologist. Just as a good geologist would be paid well to be retained by the company. Having that piece of paper doesn’t make you a master of all or a good worker. Nor does it guarantee good pay. My experience though is that they are paid very well for the amount of work, hours and conditions compared to those drillers.

 

[Mofra]

Something to note out of the rise in wages to compensate for GST and other fringe taxes is that the workers wages will not decline.When things return to normal workers will compete for jobs but wages will not decline!

No need to compensate for the GST, given it did replace a whole host of other indirect taxes. Wages as a whole may not decline, however there will always be variations within different work sectors.