Recession? What recession?

[mullokintyre]

Cathy Wood offers an informative and interesting look at the coming year, from the 30:00 minute mark.

00:20:04 – Cathie’s Market Summary
00:24:04 – Fiscal Policy
00:24:07 – Total Public Debt Outstanding vs. GDP
00:26:03 –Total Public Debt Outstanding Divided by GDP
00:27:05 – Monetary Policy
00:27:08 – M2 Money Supply vs. CPI: Year-over-Year
00:28:01 – Yield Curve 10 Year Treasury Yield Minus 2 Year
00:29:10 – 10 Year Yield Minus 3 Month Yield: Consecutive Days Inverted
00:30:14 – Recession Probability – Federal Reserve Bank of New York
00:31:14 – Economic Indicators
00:31:19 – The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index
00:31:39 – Total Continuing Jobless Claims
00:32:33 – Temporary Help Employment vs. Total Employment
00:34:01 – Piper Sandler Charts
00:38:33 – Market Signals
00:38:37 – US Dollar Index (DXY)
00:39:17 – Bloomberg Commodity Index
00:39:56 – Metals/Gold Ratio vs. US 10 Year Treasury
00:41:03 – Gold to Oil Ratio – Historical Chart
00:42:23 – Cathie’s Conclusion

IMHO Cathy Wood is the female equivalent of Jim Cramer.
One look at the ARK chart is enough for me to treat he with a fair bit of skepticism.
Mick

 

[JohnDe]

IMHO Cathy Wood is the female equivalent of Jim Cramer.
One look at the ARK chart is enough for me to treat he with a fair bit of skepticism.
Mick
View attachment 168476

That's an unfair comparison. A bit like saying Bob Hawke and Anthony Albanese are the same type of Prime Ministers because they both have the same political ideas.

‘I know it sounds crazy’: Cathie Wood’s next big idea​

​

Wood’s army of (often male) critics will point out that while she may have called many of the big themes in markets this year, her longer-term predictions continue to look extreme. Ark has tipped bitcoin to hit $US1.48 million by 2030, and believes Tesla’s share price can jump nine-fold by 2027. And despite this year’s gains, Wood’s flagship fund is down 73 per cent off its 2021 peak, and basically flat over five years.​

 

[mullokintyre]

US Factiry orders rose in November, which rather surprised a few after the big fall in October.



The problem is, all the manufacturing surveys have shown a pessimistic decline for months.

Meanwhile, as the US has switched to a largely services economy, the ISM services survey plunged further.

it seems that the folks at the coalface are significantly more pessimistic than the experts in the C suites.
Mick

 

[JohnDe]

it seems that the folks at the coalface are significantly more pessimistic than the experts in the C suites.
Mick

If you had listened to the Cathy Wood video I posted, you would have fount that is pretty much what she said and explained with charts.

 

[divs4ever]

IMHO Cathy Wood is the female equivalent of Jim Cramer.
One look at the ARK chart is enough for me to treat he with a fair bit of skepticism.
Mick
View attachment 168476

no i think Kramer is more consistent( ly wrong )

maybe Cathy is telling the private clients something different to the videos , or telling the clients the same thing but a week ahead of the public releases ( so they are at the front of the rush )

but that is always the risk , of making your analysis public ( even the best have periods when they got it badly wrong )

 

[mullokintyre]

Somebody here said there was an army of critics (mainly men) of Cathy Wood and her ARC investment fund.
The problem is, when you look at the performance of her flagship fund, things look far from rosy.
From Quoth the Raven
As best as I could tell over the last 5 years, Cathie Wood has stuffed her “innovation” ETF like a Christmas turkey full of cash burning, extremely overvalued companies. Another one of her gems, Invitae, filed for bankruptcy earlier this month.
Wood has underperformed her benchmark, the Nasdaq QQQ, by about 95% in the last 3 years. Ex-Tesla, her results would be catastrophically worse over the last 5-10 years.


Wood sits comfortable at the top of the wealth destroying tables, but she still gets called on by the finance MSM to pass on her wisdom.


The results just do not warrant her beatification.
Mick
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch...6adf-a870-4be6-9faf-2b715e33aae4_1226x800.png

 

[qldfrog]

Somebody here said there was an army of critics (mainly men) of Cathy Wood and her ARC investment fund.
The problem is, when you look at the performance of her flagship fund, things look far from rosy.
From Quoth the Raven
As best as I could tell over the last 5 years, Cathie Wood has stuffed her “innovation” ETF like a Christmas turkey full of cash burning, extremely overvalued companies. Another one of her gems, Invitae, filed for bankruptcy earlier this month.
Wood has underperformed her benchmark, the Nasdaq QQQ, by about 95% in the last 3 years. Ex-Tesla, her results would be catastrophically worse over the last 5-10 years.
View attachment 171328

Wood sits comfortable at the top of the wealth destroying tables, but she still gets called on by the finance MSM to pass on her wisdom.

View attachment 171329
The results just do not warrant her beatification.
Mick
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cda96adf-a870-4be6-9faf-2b715e33aae4_1226x800.png

But she is a lady, and most probably a great defender of the wokeland LGBTxxx and associated esg/climate change BS..so abilities and performances are irrelevant.
How a HiTech ETF could fare so badly in the US over the last 5 years is in itself a prize winning effort.

 

[mullokintyre]

That's an unfair comparison. A bit like saying Bob Hawke and Anthony Albanese are the same type of Prime Ministers because they both have the same political ideas.

No, its because they are both wrong 90% of the time.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Meanwhile, back in the world of markets and recessions.

There is that consistent theme of downgrading past stats that is giving US stats a major credibility problem.
It seems that any and every stat is downgrded after the event, almost as if the US administration is trying to fool its citizens.

Now the Pending home sales release shows another decline.
And surprise surprise (thanks Gomer Pyle), Decembers stats were revesed sharply downwards.

Are the pending home sales falling because lack of supply, a dearth of willing buyers, or a combination of both.
It could be that no one wants to commit to a 30 year fixed loan at what are (recent) historically high interest rates.



Mick

 

[JohnDe]

No, its because they are both wrong 90% of the time.
Mick

They have done ok by me. Australian governments have provided a prosperous and stable nation, and ARKK has improved my investment by 38%

 

[mullokintyre]

A little bit more on the CRE market in the US.
From Bloombergs comes news a Canadian pension offloaded a a US Office Tower for a buck as it seeks to limit its exposure to CRE in the US.



Another tidbit is this chart showing how many CRE loans come due this year.


I'm sure it will be fine.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

I'm sure it will be fine

providing you can cover the debts of your bargain buys , yep

Canadian workers well they can always migrate ( no pension left for them in Canada )

 

[mullokintyre]

Don't know if we get the same sort of data for OZ, but for the USA fin health, there obviously is a need for some serious medicine.
The credit card debt has once again topped the pre covid trend line.
On the other hand, the savings rate is still abysmal.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

So, lets look at the last few recessions in USA.
1. The COVID based recession of 2020.
2. Subprime Mortgae induced recession of 2007.
3. 2001 Recession 9induced by the dot com bubble and then the september 11 attacks.
4. 1981 -82 recession inducwed by the iranian revolution prompted oil crisis and boost in inergy costs.
There might be some correlation between recessions and the inverted yield curve.
mick



Thats obviously a consensus.
I will stick to my contrarian ways.
Mick

 

[Smurf1976]

So, lets look at the last few recessions in USA.

The present yield curve inversion is not only steep but also now ongoing for quite some time versus some of the others being relatively brief.

I very much doubt it's different this time.

 

[mullokintyre]

So Personal Interest payments now exceed average hourly earnings.
That can't last too long without some sort of repercussions.
Mick

 

[IFocus]

So, lets look at the last few recessions in USA.
1. The COVID based recession of 2020.
2. Subprime Mortgae induced recession of 2007.
3. 2001 Recession 9induced by the dot com bubble and then the september 11 attacks.
4. 1981 -82 recession inducwed by the iranian revolution prompted oil crisis and boost in inergy costs.
There might be some correlation between recessions and the inverted yield curve.
mick

View attachment 173218

Thats obviously a consensus.
I will stick to my contrarian ways.
Mick

Yeah it's interesting have been following for some time along with various commentary still time for things to play out (US debt?) including that one grain of sand to start the sand pile collapse.

 

[divs4ever]

So, lets look at the last few recessions in USA.
1. The COVID based recession of 2020.
2. Subprime Mortgae induced recession of 2007.
3. 2001 Recession 9induced by the dot com bubble and then the september 11 attacks.
4. 1981 -82 recession inducwed by the iranian revolution prompted oil crisis and boost in inergy costs.
There might be some correlation between recessions and the inverted yield curve.
mick

View attachment 173218

Thats obviously a consensus.
I will stick to my contrarian ways.
Mick

i thought the yield curve had to un-invert to trigger the recession , the inversion was just the red flag so you had time to prepare

although i have to admit this inversion has been rather long ( this time ) ... maybe there will be a different( worse ) outcome

 

[Value Collector]

So, lets look at the last few recessions in USA.
1. The COVID based recession of 2020.
2. Subprime Mortgae induced recession of 2007.
3. 2001 Recession 9induced by the dot com bubble and then the september 11 attacks.
4. 1981 -82 recession inducwed by the iranian revolution prompted oil crisis and boost in inergy costs.
There might be some correlation between recessions and the inverted yield curve.
mick

View attachment 173218

Thats obviously a consensus.
I will stick to my contrarian ways.
Mick

You might enjoy this video if you haven’t already seen it.

 

[sptrawler]

The present yield curve inversion is not only steep but also now ongoing for quite some time versus some of the others being relatively brief.

I very much doubt it's different this time.

I may have the wrong end of the dog, but from my recollection, this is the first time we have actively tried to inflate our debt away.

To me, it just seems we are turbo charging our dive into the U.S model, of a massive social divide.