Recession? What recession?

[wayneL]

We went to Midland Gate today

And you survived?

 

[farmerge]

And you survived?

@wayneL Only just. Nearly cleaned up by a doubtful bod on a 3 wheel bike inside the centre whilst on our way to the tucker area.
Dodging those super heavyweights was also a cautious exercise.

 

[mullokintyre]

Somebody here said there was an army of critics (mainly men) of Cathy Wood and her ARC investment fund.
The problem is, when you look at the performance of her flagship fund, things look far from rosy.
From Quoth the Raven
As best as I could tell over the last 5 years, Cathie Wood has stuffed her “innovation” ETF like a Christmas turkey full of cash burning, extremely overvalued companies. Another one of her gems, Invitae, filed for bankruptcy earlier this month.
Wood has underperformed her benchmark, the Nasdaq QQQ, by about 95% in the last 3 years. Ex-Tesla, her results would be catastrophically worse over the last 5-10 years.
View attachment 171328

Wood sits comfortable at the top of the wealth destroying tables, but she still gets called on by the finance MSM to pass on her wisdom.

Cathie Woods ARK funds bought up big time n the recent crash.
I am kinda surprised that she had any funds left to invest.
The outflows from the funds have been enormous.
From Bloombergs


Mick

 

[divs4ever]

Cathie Woods ARK funds bought up big time n the recent crash.
I am kinda surprised that she had any funds left to invest.
The outflows from the funds have been enormous.
From Bloombergs
View attachment 182301

Mick

i am no fan of Cathie nor most of the stocks she picks , but some of those other fund managers rack up losses and outflows as well

she certainly won't win Ms Cautious hedge fund of the decade with her strategies and picks , but like Micheal Burry she only needs to be right once a decade ( and maybe all those losses are reversed )

after all there is a phenomena called 'climbing the wall of worry '

time will tell if she is hero or zero -

mind you i do wonder who would put a large part of their wealth into that strategy ( 5% if you are Daddy Big Bucks, sure worth a punt )

 

[JohnDe]

Cathie Woods ARK funds bought up big time n the recent crash.
I am kinda surprised that she had any funds left to invest.
The outflows from the funds have been enormous.
From Bloombergs
View attachment 182301

Mick

Proofs in the pudding, and out there for all to see. The next few months will be interesting.

Cathie Wood eyed the market this week and made her move: She bought the dip. ​

​

Several ETFs at Wood’s firm, ARK Invest, bought a variety of tech stocks after they fellalongside a broader market drop. ARK Invest, which has $6.7 billion in assets under management, is an influential firm whose funds have fallen on hard times. Reports earlier this year showed investors pulled a total of $2.2 billion from the funds over their poor performance.​

Cathie Wood buys falling tech stocks, anticipating a market rebound

Investors like Wood see slipping stocks as a bargain, while others prepare for a bear market.

fortune.com

 

[divs4ever]

Proofs in the pudding, and out there for all to see. The next few months will be interesting.

Cathie Wood eyed the market this week and made her move: She bought the dip. ​

​

Several ETFs at Wood’s firm, ARK Invest, bought a variety of tech stocks after they fellalongside a broader market drop. ARK Invest, which has $6.7 billion in assets under management, is an influential firm whose funds have fallen on hard times. Reports earlier this year showed investors pulled a total of $2.2 billion from the funds over their poor performance.​

Cathie Wood buys falling tech stocks, anticipating a market rebound

Investors like Wood see slipping stocks as a bargain, while others prepare for a bear market.

fortune.com

does she anticipate a 'rebound ' or has good information certain companies will be bailed out in stressed circumstances .. say all the Amazon cloud might be 10% Government data back-up/usage , the government can't afford that to fail or go into the wrong hands

 

[JohnDe]

does she anticipate a 'rebound ' or has good information certain companies will be bailed out in stressed circumstances .. say all the Amazon cloud might be 10% Government data back-up/usage , the government can't afford that to fail or go into the wrong hands

Here are her thoughts -

 

[investtrader]

How ARKK still exists is beyond me. Since the start of 2021 it has lost 75% of it's value. Why hasn't everyone pulled their funds? I certainly wouldn't waste my time listening to her.

 

[divs4ever]

How ARKK still exists is beyond me. Since the start of 2021 it has lost 75% of it's value. Why hasn't everyone pulled their funds? I certainly wouldn't waste my time listening to her.

well as i interpreted Cathie , she mixed a touch of reality with a dose of ( official ) narrative , the media thinks she is leaking investors , but there are plenty of funds doing that ( but maybe not so heavily )

maybe she can continue because the remaining investors still believe the tech bubble still has further to go ( much like crypto fans )

now one trend i notice with commentators of funds is the fixation on ( value ) NTA and very little on returns ( distributions ) is she kicking goals there ( with capital gains triggered by buy-backs and M&A activity ,and genuine divs )

AND how many of these investors have more than 10% of their portfolio with Cathie after all the narrative says she is a fund manager to the very rich , one might think the bulk of their investments would be in property , their own businesses , bonds and such , surely many took a lesson from the Bernie Madoff saga

let's see how the funds cope with a genuine crash , she might survive simply because she uses low( or no ) leverage while the rivals and playing heavily in the leverage game ( like those UK pension funds did )

 

[sptrawler]

now one trend i notice with commentators of funds is the fixation on ( value ) NTA and very little on returns ( distributions ) is she kicking goals there ( with capital gains triggered by buy-backs and M&A activity ,and genuine divs )

Back in the day a few funds were valuing their unlisted holdings themselves and when push came to shove their vaulations were wildly inflated. The 1987 crash exposed quite a few of them, from memory.

 

[divs4ever]

Back in the day a few funds were valuing their unlisted holdings themselves and when push came to shove their vaulations were wildly inflated. The 1987 crash exposed quite a few of them, from memory.

i was aware of the risks of unlisted holdings , both difficult valuations and liquidity difficulties and mostly avoid ( but not totally ) avoid funds with unlisted assets

i expect even those with property assets will look ugly if we have a broad-based meltdown , as i suspect plenty are using leverage ( but not at the insane levels some do )

 

[mullokintyre]

Meanwhile, the US has recorded its second largest yearly deficit on record.
From Zero hedge




Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

USA is a nation of the ultimate consumers, and it is these consumers who keep the gravy train going for those who clip the tickets on the way through.
Michael Snyder documents a large increase in the number of retail stores in the country, signalling a decline in foot traffic at stores, an increase in online sales, a decline in the US consumers ability to spend, or a combination of all.

From Most Important News


There are some stores expanding, such as 7 eleven which plans to open
about 270 stores, as will the discount store "Five Below".
Dollar General, another chain selling cheap junk, plans to open a staggering 800 stores.
The types of stores opening are at the bottom of the retail chain, which says about the consumers.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

The US fed funds rate superimposed with the recessions.
Every downaward turning point since the 1960's has signalled a forthcoming recession.
Will this time be different?



The number of non performing loans for the US consumer is climbing after hitting an all time low during the free money period from 2020.
As they started to increase the rates again, along came the covid recession and more money came through.
It is mirrored in the non performing loan chart.
Non performing loans plunged when interest rates were dropped to zero after th 2008 recession.
They had just started to creep up again in 2016, which is when the feds started increasing rates again, before the covid recession.
As it is a bit of lagging indicator, the non performing loans will probably increase a few more points before falling over as more cheap money flows in.
its one of the few things the Us administration cannot fudge.
I still see the US heading into recession.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

A couple more interesting data points from the US.
Firstly, us manufacturing went down in September.
The indexes have been going up and down like a yoy-yo, perhaps more because of the fudging of data than anything else as Augusts data was revised down.



Secondly, continuing Jobless claims remain high.
People struggling to get a job once they are laid off.
The data for a while is going to be completely skewed as the after affects of twin hurricanses in the southwest flow through to the closed busineses in South Carolina, gGeorgia and Florida.


Thirdly, the very positive retail sales in September pushed back on the more rate cuts meme.
Headline sales rose 0.8% for the month making it three growth months in a row.



It was not enough to keep the YOY sales growth in the positive territory however.
The biggest problem is that these figures are on a "seasonally adjusted basis".
If one looks at the raw figures, it was actually a 7.5% fall.
It turned out to be the biggest "seasonal adjustment" for September since records started.
As someone on X said, "wish I could seasonally adjust my wages up, and by bills down".
Mick