Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Recession? What recession?

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Knobby22 said:
The landing is looking pretty soft.
Unemployment though rising isn't that bad.View attachment 166195
Click to expand...
depends on if you are calculating unemployment or under-employment ( not enough work to pay the bills with the primary income )

am expecting a trend towards more robotics and automated systems to be introduced to combat wage demands and skilled worker shortage ( and we could always weed out the various 'public services ' , a lot of seat-fillers there )
 
divs4ever said:
depends on if you are calculating unemployment or under-employment ( not enough work to pay the bills with the primary income )

am expecting a trend towards more robotics and automated systems to be introduced to combat wage demands and skilled worker shortage ( and we could always weed out the various 'public services ' , a lot of seat-fillers there )
Click to expand...
Takes time though.
They should hit bottom soon. More worried about us.
 
Knobby22 said:
Takes time though.
They should hit bottom soon. More worried about us.
Click to expand...
i started early on the 'worry ' i watched Repo Madness in September 2019 and built on my strategy built around my ( erroneous ) estimation there would be a big crash in 2013 , i don't let good preparations go to waste

they have kicked the can , changed definitions and wasted political capital , what next a debt moratorium and shaft the few who still believe in them enough to lend them money ( buy their debt paper )
 
farmerge said:
Hairdresser comes to our place $35 for the two hair cuts nothing fancy
Click to expand...

lol $17.50 each sounds almost too low for a real business - the long drive out ta farmer's joint, evading the dangerous dreamtime serpents up and down the place... doesn't really look sustainable as an hourly rate for a pro. Sounds like cash in hand job or mate's rates sorta thing :p I recently paid $45 at a barber's - not the VERY cheapest place but not much more than the cheapest. I miss $15 haircuts :(
 
StockyGuy said:
lol $17.50 each sounds almost too low for a real business - the long drive out ta farmer's joint, evading the dangerous dreamtime serpents up and down the place... doesn't really look sustainable as an hourly rate for a pro. Sounds like cash in hand job or mate's rates sorta thing :p I recently paid $45 at a barber's - not the VERY cheapest place but not much more than the cheapest. I miss $15 haircuts :(
Click to expand...
Cash is King or Queen in this case $15 for me and $20 for her. Professionally trained hairdresser and pulls in a good number of dollars a day. Six days a week.
 
In another worrying sign for the US economy, the Dallas manufacturing outlook has continued its contraction.
It has now been negative for for some 19 months.
From Zero hedge
1701152595070.png
The new orders index has been negative for 18 months and dropped from -8.8 to -20.5 in November. The capacity utilization index returned to negative territory, falling from 5.4 to -10.1, while the shipments index slipped eight points to -9.5.

Texas factory activity contracted in November after two months of expansion, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell 12 points to -7.2.


1701152771252.png
Expectations regarding future business conditions continued to worsen in November...

Comments from survey respondents​

These comments are from respondents’ completed surveys and have been edited for publication.

Chemical manufacturing
  • The chemical industry seems to be in a recession now.
Computer and electronic product manufacturing
  • We are seeing a lot of price and lead-time increases with aluminum products.
  • We are working our way through a cyclical bottom as customer demand has slowed in most markets, and customers work to right-size inventory. Growth is resuming in PC/handsets, other markets are still correcting, and auto has yet to show any signs of slowing.
Fabricated metal product manufacturing
  • I think we are on the downside of the through cycle for building products. While the professional-level activity has been somewhat consistent throughout the year, the end users are just now returning to the market.
  • New orders are slow coming in.
  • Our customer base is very slow to release orders. It is not a price-point issue but rather customers’ concerns surrounding their uncertainty.
Food manufacturing
  • Sales orders have increased here at year-end, which is a good sign after a slowdown this fall. Raw material prices have decreased, leading to improved profit margin. We raised employee wages 5 percent, with the last increase 18 months ago. We need to retain good employees, as labor turnover is still a concern. Our minimum wage is $14 an hour.
  • Orders are getting pushed out. Sales volume is down since last month and earlier this year.
Furniture and related product manufacturing
  • The Dallas area continues to be a bright spot in construction, particularly in health care and hospitality. Our largest business threats are a lack of skilled tradespeople and replacing our older workers who are retiring.
Machinery manufacturing
  • Business remains slow, and we see no signs of improvement.
  • The cost of funds, Middle East concerns and it being a [upcoming] presidential election year all seem to be influencing our markets.
  • The quote rate has increased. We expect that orders will increase after Jan. 1.
Miscellaneous manufacturing
  • October, November and (estimated) December sales volumes have decreased by 30–35 percent from normal. This is attributed predominantly to the ripple effect of the UAW [United Auto Workers] strike. About 40 percent of our customers are tier 1 suppliers to automotive. In general, the volume of sales across all other segments is down, which is expected this time of year.
Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing
  • The future is uncertain.
Paper manufacturing
  • We are still in a holding pattern, with business not good but not bad either. Planning is cautious at this point.
Plastics and rubber products manufacturing
  • Our retail sector is reeling somewhat. We’ll wait and see how bad Christmas goes, but the consumer is heavily burdened.
Primary metal manufacturing
  • Customers’ inventories are lower, yet they are not buying. This means their customers are slow.
  • Our U.S. industry has lost approximately 30 percent of our sales to foreign competition who is either dumping or receiving government subsidies, or both. Last month, a coalition of companies within our industry filed charges against 15 countries with the Commerce Department for unfair trade. A preliminary ruling last week by the International Trade Commission found enough evidence to substantiate our claims and move forward with the investigation. We are hopeful that the rulings will advance our U.S. efforts for fair trade.
  • Incoming orders continued to decline over the last six to eight months. Now that we have worked through our backlog, it is affecting our ability to reach breakeven and has affected our employment number. We do not see that this situation will improve into first quarter 2024.
Printing and related support activities
  • We continue to book new orders, which is a very pleasant surprise. We had feared things would be slowing down right now, but that is not the case. We do know we should be pretty busy starting in about six months and carrying forward for at least four to five months, so things are looking promising for sure.
  • Customers are hammering down prices by getting competitive quotes and pushing back on pricing. Order quantity for our consumer goods packaging orders is smaller than last year.
Textile product mills
  • We are seeing a good increase in sales as people do holiday shopping. It's hard to gauge how the rest of the holiday season will go, and uncertainty is high.
Transportation equipment manufacturing
  • There is nothing encouraging on the horizon.
The horizon has become very cloudy, which makes seeing the landing spot somewhat difficult.
be a miracle if it even approaches 'soft".
Mick
 
From Zero Hedge
Us factory orders continued their rollercoaster ride last month with orders falling by a significant margin, and of course there was the standard downward revision of previous months figures.

The chaotic time series of US Factory Orders was expected to swing to a big loss (-3.00% MoM) in October (data released today) after a big jump in September and big drop in July (and a big jump in June!).
However, factory orders tumbled even more than expected, down 3.6% MoM - the biggest drop since the COVID lockdowns (April 2020). September was also revised lower (making October's decline even worse) from +2.8% MoM to +2.3% MoM...
bfmCB5.jpg
Source: Bloomberg
The big monthly decline and revisions dragged orders down 2.1% YoY (the biggest drop since Sept 2020).
Core factory orders also dropped (-1.2% Mom), leaving them down 2.2% YoY - the eight month in a row of annual declines...
bfmF9A6.jpg
Source: Bloomberg
The final Durable Goods Orders data for October confirmed the preliminary print plunge down 5.4% MoM.
Click to expand...
fortunately for the US, wars around the world gave a hefty legup to defence orders spending.
Finally, we note that it could have been a lot worse as Defense spending shot up 24.7% MoM (as non-defense dropped 15.8% MoM0...
bfm2EB8.jpg
Click to expand...
Who said wars are not good for the economy, especially if none of your own soldeirs are getting killed.
Mick
 
Thought this was a very interesting graph shown by Alan Kohler last night on the news.
from Macquarie Research.
It shows what happens in the USA greatly effects our share market.
A hard landing will lead to lower share prices while a soft landing will be slightly good. Watch the video for the whole story.
kohler.png



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With Christmas approaching, one might expect that it would be a boom time for the makers/distributors of toys.
In an early sign that things may not be all rosy, toy maker Hasbro have laid off about 20% of their work force.
From Zero Hedge
1702450145778.png
The layoffs, which account for nearly 20% of Hasbro's workforce, were noted in a Monday memo Cocks sent to employees, which was viewed by the Wall Street Journal. The slump in sales came after sales hit "historic, pandemic-driven highs" melted into holiday season challenges which are expected to continue into next year.

"The market headwinds we anticipated have proven to be stronger and more persistent than planned," reads the memo. "While we’re confident in the future of Hasbro, the current environment demands that we do more."

The cuts will be completed in the next 18-24 months.

Shares for Hasbro and Mattel fell 4% and 3%, respectively, in after-hours trading. Hasbro shares are down 20% this year, while Mattel stock is up 5.4%.
The announcement, just two weeks before Christmas, comes as toy companies enter their busiest time of the year. About half of toy companies’ yearly sales come in the weeks leading up to the holiday, according to analysts, making the period a make-or-break stretch for manufacturers. -WSJ
Click to expand...
According to the report, Hasbro warned in October that they expected to see a 15% slump in sales this year, after previously forecasting a 3% to 5% decline. This came on the heels of posting its fourth-consecutive quarterly loss thanks to a 10% drop in Q3 sales.

Notable Hasbro brands include; Power Rangers, PJ Masks, GI Joe, Monopoly, Play-Doh, and Transformers.

Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
With Christmas approaching, one might expect that it would be a boom time for the makers/distributors of toys.
In an early sign that things may not be all rosy, toy maker Hasbro have laid off about 20% of their work force.
From Zero Hedge
View attachment 167166
The layoffs, which account for nearly 20% of Hasbro's workforce, were noted in a Monday memo Cocks sent to employees, which was viewed by the Wall Street Journal. The slump in sales came after sales hit "historic, pandemic-driven highs" melted into holiday season challenges which are expected to continue into next year.

"The market headwinds we anticipated have proven to be stronger and more persistent than planned," reads the memo. "While we’re confident in the future of Hasbro, the current environment demands that we do more."

The cuts will be completed in the next 18-24 months.


According to the report, Hasbro warned in October that they expected to see a 15% slump in sales this year, after previously forecasting a 3% to 5% decline. This came on the heels of posting its fourth-consecutive quarterly loss thanks to a 10% drop in Q3 sales.

Notable Hasbro brands include; Power Rangers, PJ Masks, GI Joe, Monopoly, Play-Doh, and Transformers.

Mick
Click to expand...
well something happened to reduce to number of successful child-births , now it might be the success of Planned Parenthood , or an artifact of a medical intervention or maybe married couples are too financially stressed to consider rearing children , of course the new Wokism trend will confuse some heterosexual couples as well

i can't wait to see the end of 'the new-age Disney '
 
Cathy Wood offers an informative and interesting look at the coming year, from the 30:00 minute mark.

00:20:04 – Cathie’s Market Summary
00:24:04 – Fiscal Policy
00:24:07 – Total Public Debt Outstanding vs. GDP
00:26:03 –Total Public Debt Outstanding Divided by GDP
00:27:05 – Monetary Policy
00:27:08 – M2 Money Supply vs. CPI: Year-over-Year
00:28:01 – Yield Curve 10 Year Treasury Yield Minus 2 Year
00:29:10 – 10 Year Yield Minus 3 Month Yield: Consecutive Days Inverted
00:30:14 – Recession Probability – Federal Reserve Bank of New York
00:31:14 – Economic Indicators
00:31:19 – The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index
00:31:39 – Total Continuing Jobless Claims
00:32:33 – Temporary Help Employment vs. Total Employment
00:34:01 – Piper Sandler Charts
00:38:33 – Market Signals
00:38:37 – US Dollar Index (DXY)
00:39:17 – Bloomberg Commodity Index
00:39:56 – Metals/Gold Ratio vs. US 10 Year Treasury
00:41:03 – Gold to Oil Ratio – Historical Chart
00:42:23 – Cathie’s Conclusion


 

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