Realistic Rate of Return?

[Kalaika]

Gringott's Bank - I applaud what you've tried to do with your trading.
Natural selection (for want of a better word) quickly weeds out the less than stellar psyche's from the market reasonably effectively. The majority of highly successful traders have gotten where they are through developing systems (approaches) which are right for them, and then in executing these systems, they have not wavered - they they do not doubt, second guess or change (which is often a recipe for disaster). What i see in your aproach is a genuine attempt to strengthen your own mental edge, and good on your for doing this. It's one of the most fundamental areas of investment in corporate leaders (my past life), so why not traders?

beachlife: I'm with Julia - if you've genuinely developed a system which models 100% annual return through thorough backtesting, then for goodness' sake, set aside part of your equity, and trade the bloody thing without question, to see how it performs in real time.

Seeking a benchmark from public comment in ASF is an academic exercise at best, and by the looks of many responses, might be calling the legitimacy of your OP into question, and/or drawing some criticism around the ego-factor. Most of the best traders in the world have systems generating long term CAGR of 30-50%, so why on earth wouldn't you look at this as a rudimentary comparison?

Peace out.

 

[beachlife]

It's not nonsense.

Yes it is. You do not have to imagine you are someone you arent, or be hypnotised, to have a positive mindset, and the words system and discretionary dont belong together. Still no rate of return given.

... then for goodness' sake, set aside part of your equity, and trade the bloody thing without question, to see how it performs in real time.

As I said before I have been trading it since Jan, yes with real money.

Seeking a benchmark from public comment in ASF is an academic exercise at best, and by the looks of many responses, might be calling the legitimacy of your OP into question, and/or drawing some criticism around the ego-factor. Most of the best traders in the world have systems generating long term CAGR of 30-50%, so why on earth wouldn't you look at this as a rudimentary comparison?

No hidden agenda, nothing to sell, no commissions to make, no ego needs. I was just curious to see if anyone was doing as well as Daryl Guppy's sample newsletter portfolio. Clearly no one here is even close to this level, and because they arent they dont believe anyone else can be either, or they are at that level and enjoy posting cryptic meaningless garbage to satisfy their egos.

Such a simple question, 'please share your results' has been a huge waste of time. I wont bother posting my results in Dec, no one will believe them no matter what they are.

 

[skc]

Such a simple question, 'please share your results' has been a huge waste of time. I wont bother posting my results in Dec, no one will believe them no matter what they are.

Yes it has been a waste of time and it has been explained to you. If your system shows 100% p.a. based on a certain risk per trade (I think you said 4%). That's your return. So super_trader_girl_22 (I made her up) can return 250% while I can return only 5% (and we average 122.5%) has no bearing to you.

The danger of looking for the high mark is that you don't really want to chase that by dialing up the risk per trade and hence your risk of ruin.

Let me share with you some practical advice.

You've started trading since Jan. By Dec you should know better what sort of trade frequency (i.e. number of traders over 12 month) and drawdown you can expect in your system.

Look at what you want as an income... say $150k p.a. So you need $150k capital at current level of risk and 100% return. Or if you have $300k captial, dial down the risk to 2-2.5% per trade and get your $150k income that way. Or if you really wanted $150+, then use $250k (or whatever). You see how straight away you can make your return really any number you choose.

So at the end of the year you tell everyone your return is X%. What meaning has it got for anyone learning to trade or setting a target for themselves?

FWIW, my rate of return is infinite as I trade other people's money...

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Yes it is. You do not have to imagine you are someone you arent, or be hypnotised, to have a positive mindset, and the words system and discretionary dont belong together. Still no rate of return given.

No you don't have to do any of those things if they are already in place. If they are in place, good for you. If they are not, you definitely need to do something to make a change, and I am offering some possibilities for action. Having all the knowledge is a small fraction of the puzzle. Canoz's situation demonstrates this clearly. He knows more than many ASF members about how markets work, and yet he is failing miserably. He has applied what TH has recommended diligently, but to no avail. So what have you offered that will help him?

No rate of return given. So what? I've never pretended to be a superman trader on any thread including this one. I'm not making as much as you - does that help you feel better? How much I make should be of no concern to anyone. What should be of concern is how much change has occurred as a result of applying the correct mindset. The amount of change is far more significant than any technical factor, any position sizing factor, any trade management or R:R factor I have ever applied. Before this, I had studied and studied and studied (like Canoz) and all it did was reduce my drawdowns, albeit significantly.

Kalaika, thanks for your post!

 

[beachlife]

So at the end of the year you tell everyone your return is X%. What meaning has it got for anyone learning to trade or setting a target for themselves?

If it is a good result it just might stop them from being discouraged by idiots that post nonesense like

"If you need 150k and you reckon you can make 30% start with 1 mil should see you survive."


It might help them set a realistic target to aim for, and it might stop them from paying thousands of dollars to 'mentors' that barely beat the index.

 

[skc]

If it is a good result it just might stop them from being discouraged by idiots that post nonesense like

"If you need 150k and you reckon you can make 30% start with 1 mil should see you survive."

It might help them set a realistic target to aim for, and it might stop them from paying thousands of dollars to 'mentors' that barely beat the index.

I will leave you to it. After trading for a few more years, come back to this thread and see if anything you can reflect on or gain a new understanding. May be you will indeed prove the above to be BS (or not applicable to you), or you will look at that and think "Someone told me but I didn't want to listen".

Good luck.

 

[CanOz]

Beach, there aren't too many trading equities here that would post thier results. Certainly the Prop guys aren't going to, they'd get the boot. Tech had just posted the real results of his and Pavs system. You have guppys results...go to collective2 and grab some more more there....they're for systems but it doesn't matter...

This all together should give you an idea of what is achievable at the upper end.

CanOz

 

[beachlife]

.... So what have you offered that will help him?

I suggested he focus on one market, widen his time frame, and avoid lunch time. I didnt give any detailed advice because I am not a successful intra day trader.

All the positive attitude in the world is pointless and irrelevant if the maths of the system dont work. To succeed you need a mathematically sound system, first and foremost. Once you have that you need the dicipline to implement it. That's it. You dont need to wake up every day and look in the mirror and say good morning super trader.

.... How much I make should be of no concern to anyone.

It should be, and it is for me. If you are happy with your performance then that is fantastic. I would never criticise that. But if you arent the sort of trader that he wants to be then he shouldnt listen to you. He should only listen to people that are at the level he wants to be at. I dont take notice of anything anyone says if they arent making around 100% pa, because I know its possible and if someone doesnt know how to do it then their advice is not worth listening to, no different to ignoring a running coach if you want to be a swimmer. I also wont belittle someone if they are only making 10%, but I would help them where I could if they asked for it. And if someone says my posts are made up, like you did, then I will call them out.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I suggested he focus on one market, widen his time frame, and avoid lunch time. I didnt give any detailed advice because I am not a successful intra day trader.

All the positive attitude in the world is pointless and irrelevant if the maths of the system dont work. To succeed you need a mathematically sound system, first and foremost. Once you have that you need the dicipline to implement it. That's it. You dont need to wake up every day and look in the mirror and say good morning super trader.



It should be, and it is for me. If you are happy with your performance then that is fantastic. I would never criticise that. But if you arent the sort of trader that he wants to be then he shouldnt listen to you. He should only listen to people that are at the level he wants to be at. I dont take notice of anything anyone says if they arent making around 100% pa, because I know its possible and if someone doesnt know how to do it then their advice is not worth listening to, no different to ignoring a running coach if you want to be a swimmer. I also wont belittle someone if they are only making 10%, but I would help them where I could if they asked for it. And if someone says my posts are made up, like you did, then I will call them out.

You don't need any maths at all in discretionary trading (which is what Canoz was trying to do).

I've given this example many times before. Tiger Woods could no more teach you how to hit a golf ball than fly. However Woods' coach (who is nowhere near as good), could take you a long way. So you'd rather go to Tiger. I'd rather go to Tiger's coach. The top guys in any field are very rarely good at teaching or even understanding how it is they became so good. You're wasting your time going up that road.

 

[beachlife]

"Someone told me but I didn't want to listen".

There has been nothing constructive said. Take this example

I can see a number of areas
You ave identified 1 ---- a serious problem. Why would I ask if I had identified it?
You have seen seen 1 as irrelevant --- although you are using leverage correctly in a portfolio situation. This makes no sense at all. And I see 3 areas you could improve on.
Frequency - what, too many, or too few
Not moving initial stop - I never said where my initial stop is, when, by how much
Pyramiding - when, by how much

There is nothing in that post, or any others that will make more sense in 6 months.

 

[beachlife]

You don't need any maths at all in discretionary trading (which is what Canoz was trying to do).

Then he has been gambling, he needs a system.

I've given this example many times before. Tiger Woods could no more teach you how to hit a golf ball than fly. However Woods' coach (who is nowhere near as good), could take you a long way. So you'd rather go to Tiger. I'd rather go to Tiger's coach. The top guys in any field are very rarely good at teaching or even understanding how it is they became so good. You're wasting your time going up that road.

No no no. Tiger Woods' coach has proven himself as a coach, he has proven results so of course I would listen to him, but I wouldnt listen to the guy at the local club that wont show me his score card.

 

[FlyingFox]

Hi beachlife,

Interested to know how far back you have backtested?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Then he has been gambling, he needs a system.




No no no. Tiger Woods' coach has proven himself as a coach, he has proven results so of course I would listen to him, but I wouldnt listen to the guy at the local club that wont show me his score card.

Proven coach (Sean Foley), but he can't win a major. In fact his Wikipedia page doesn't mention even one title he has won.

I'm offering advice but can't make 100%. Is my advice useless? I guess you're saying I need to coach someone to 100% before you'd listen. I'll need someone to coach first. Canoz won't listen to me!! One day someone might. If not, I'll just continue to work on myself.

 

[CanOz]

....... Canoz won't listen to me!! One day someone might. If not, I'll just continue to work on myself.

Hey now...I told you I use a trading coach, so it is possible that you idea could be discussed one day

My reasons were more numerous than only what I posted...

CanOz

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Hey now...I told you I use a trading coach, so it is possible that you idea could be discussed one day

My reasons were more numerous than only what I posted...

CanOz

Great. I'd really enjoy that challenge.

 

[beachlife]

Beach, there aren't too many trading equities here that would post thier results. Certainly the Prop guys aren't going to, they'd get the boot. Tech had just posted the real results of his and Pavs system. You have guppys results...go to collective2 and grab some more more there....they're for systems but it doesn't matter...

This all together should give you an idea of what is achievable at the upper end.

CanOz

Thanks Can, I had never heard of collective2.

Check this out using their forex trends which claims 212%, on what I thought. From their graph you can get the following account balances

7 jan 2010 $564632
6 jan 2011 $613254
5 jan 2012 $735745
3 jan 2013 $800603

So for 2010 to 2011 open bal =$564632, profit is 613254-564632=48622. annual return is 48622/564632*100 = 8.6%

2011 to 2012 open bal = 613254, profit is 735745-613254=122491. annual return is 122491/734745*100 = 16.6%

2012 to 2013 open bal = 735745, profit is 800603-735745 = 64858. annual return is 64858/735745*100 = 8.8%

I just love year 10 maths.

 

[beachlife]

Hi beachlife,

Interested to know how far back you have backtested?

2 years

 

[beachlife]

I guess you're saying I need to coach someone to 100% before you'd listen.

yes, 100% per annum

 

[Trembling Hand]

If it is a good result it just might stop them from being discouraged by idiots that post nonesense like

"If you need 150k and you reckon you can make 30% start with 1 mil should see you survive."


It might help them set a realistic target to aim for, and it might stop them from paying thousands of dollars to 'mentors' that barely beat the index.

Thats not rubbish at all. Thats based on something that you have not got. 12 years of full time experience trading many different approaches and many different markets. You will find that just as your system is proven with consistent results and you dial up the capital you will be hit with all sorts of drags - Tax - drawdown - market change - unexpected time away from markets - low motivation - fear - system out of synic - repayments on your new Porsche etc etc. All of these and more will make what you return over one period foolish to think your equity curve will keep going in a straight line to infinity.

But its clear. You asked a simple question but will not listen to experienced answers. Who is being silly here?

As for my return I've made in 12 years everything from 800% to -10% per year. What can been seen from that

 

[tech/a]

Thats not rubbish at all. Thats based on something that you have not got. 12 years of full time experience trading many different approaches and many different markets. You will find that just as your system is proven with consistent results and you dial up the capital you will be hit with all sorts of drags - Tax - drawdown - market change - unexpected time away from markets - low motivation - fear - system out of synic - repayments on your new Porsche etc etc. All of these and more will make what you return over one period foolish to think your equity curve will keep going in a straight line to infinity.

But its clear. You asked a simple question but will not listen to experienced answers. Who is being silly here?

As for my return I've made in 12 years everything from 800% to -10% per year. What can been seen from that

Your dosing up a hard pill to swallow.
My feeling is your being rejected due to a low capital base.
He wants a $150K income with a low starting capital base--hence the need to
find something well above average and closed ears on the facts.

Its should be a business.
How many businesses return 100% or more on investment
in a year year after year with a starting capital or 100-200K?

Unfortunately---money does make money.
The single most common killer of business is under capitalization.