qldfrog weekly Skate inspired system

[qldfrog]

noticed housekeeping errors:
DLQFDuc: :-2.5% or -$2.7k; 80% invested
DLGuppy:+$1.65k or 2.51% fully invested;
same overall results note the systems loss this week of 0.3% is better than the xnt loss of 0.48%...comfort where you can find it

 

[qldfrog]

and not as good a day today:
2 packets of CII falling25% today outch and one EWC falling 20%, none having obvious reason: no announcement I could find
arrrg,

 

[qldfrog]

a few tweaking: adding better volume traded filter and a better DLBO filter.
today was a red day ahhh well

 

[qldfrog]

Small essay on the emotional yoyo when a week is testing your cool:
flat market, lost 1.5k why? then a quick look: entered MOC this morning @1.63 finished day at 1.36 here goes 700$, AGI this morning entry at 84c ending at 78c another 600$ on 2 packets
I notice that after index falls which basically empty my systems, the ramping up is always painful: either slow and losing opportunities like during covid crash recovery, or when I ramp up faster, this means I load in packets with score less than optimum...and get some big backlashes like AGI,MOC EWC or CII, within a day or 2 of entry..that's 4k in smoke which have to be recovered by the other entries
I actually find this more painful emotionally than losing money during crash .
In the scheme of things, numbers are lower, and other investments are OK so not the end of the world but we have days like that:
what did I do to the Great God above

 

[ducati916]

Small essay on the emotional yoyo when a week is testing your cool:
flat market, lost 1.5k why? then a quick look: entered MOC this morning @1.63 finished day at 1.36 here goes 700$, AGI this morning entry at 84c ending at 78c another 600$ on 2 packets
I notice that after index falls which basically empty my systems, the ramping up is always painful: either slow and losing opportunities like during covid crash recovery, or when I ramp up faster, this means I load in packets with score less than optimum...and get some big backlashes like AGI,MOC EWC or CII, within a day or 2 of entry..that's 4k in smoke which have to be recovered by the other entries
I actually find this more painful emotionally than losing money during crash .
In the scheme of things, numbers are lower, and other investments are OK so not the end of the world but we have days like that:
what did I do to the Great God above

Some market truisms:

(i) Unless a stock has news attached (earnings/whatever) it will trade with the market; and
(ii) News will be overwhelmed if there is a shock to the overall market and its falling hard.

New entries have to (mostly) align with the market direction.

In the US (last few days) it would not have been a good time for new long entries. Market has been toppy.

There will always be stocks that trade against the flow of the overall market:





I guess finding them is the trick.

At this point I disagree with Mr @Skate: entries are everything. As a reformed daytrader, entries are what you live and die by. Our example above is an example of news:



When I worked as a Prop. we used to scan for news in the post and pre-markets and try to take positions pre-market. Retail have caught on to pre-market trading, so not quite the advantage it used to be.

As you are not daytrading, not a major: however, your scans should be run through some basic form of news check before buying. Some really obvious (good and bad) stuff will stand out.

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

Some market truisms:

(i) Unless a stock has news attached (earnings/whatever) it will trade with the market; and
(ii) News will be overwhelmed if there is a shock to the overall market and its falling hard.

New entries have to (mostly) align with the market direction.

In the US (last few days) it would not have been a good time for new long entries. Market has been toppy.

There will always be stocks that trade against the flow of the overall market:

View attachment 120309

View attachment 120310

I guess finding them is the trick.

At this point I disagree with Mr @Skate: entries are everything. As a reformed daytrader, entries are what you live and die by. Our example above is an example of news:

View attachment 120311

When I worked as a Prop. we used to scan for news in the post and pre-markets and try to take positions pre-market. Retail have caught on to pre-market trading, so not quite the advantage it used to be.

As you are not daytrading, not a major: however, your scans should be run through some basic form of news check before buying. Some really obvious (good and bad) stuff will stand out.

jog on
duc

Thanks for the advice, as a principle,i very rarely goes against the system.this happens but very rarely.
Maybe a mistake.
With a fair amount of trades now executed, even blind Freddy would notice a few repetitive scenarios
1) i have a few specific stocks which keep getting in out and always with a loss.
they yoyo in a range with false starts/buys.i should probably remove them from the realm.not by custom fitting the code but just out of my xao universe.
A few pet hates are HTA, HAS for example.
Then
2) News
I try to have a quick look but and it is a mistake, i kind of enter my trades in a batch when there are many and so can let many miss thru.
Not that all would be caught: EWC or CII had no news i could see when i bought and were hit the day of purchase.
for clarification, i only talk about 20-25% fall on the day of purchase.
Obviously, as daily systems, I have far more entries than on weeky systems so more probabilities to be hit.. let's rephrase that ..more occurrences
So weekly are maybe easier for the stress level.. except during crash
I will try to always do a pre market news check before entry,as a rule, not as a side.
And allow myself Power of veto.
On the development path, i believe i am reaching an interesting point.in term of self control vs trading but also experiences and potential improvement as a result.
The high trading daily are marginally profitable so a few in out in a day losing $1k are actually impacting results.since December, my weekly has lost some of its gains, and my overall investment but for BTC are going nowhere. Volatility systems ok as expected, guppy and daily qfduc slow but consistent .new breakout system at a loss but consistent with ramping Up.

 

[qldfrog]

So yesterday lost 1.5k on a flat market, and gained 2k+ today on a falling market;
at the end of the week:
dailies
DLQFDuc: +$1.2k or 1.14% 80% invested
DLBO: +$0.3k or 0.5% 30% invested
DLGuppy:-$2k or -3% fully invested

volatility ASX +$2.1k or +4.4%
volatility US: +$0.6k or +3.1%
both above fully invested
weekly
QFDuc: -$1.7k or -1.7% 60% invested
please note 2 Stop loss got triggered and exited this week.

Overall :500$ gain or 0.1% stable

 

[qldfrog]

I have a big parcel of AJM now going in smoke..4.9k vaporised:
not really news but I already looked and there were not many warning signs:
this is the SP chart until suspended:

I wanted to catch the rebound...and SL was irrelevant...

 

[qldfrog]

Just a note: i tend to focus lately on the negative points: a packet delisted, multiple packets of a share falling 25% on the day you buy at open,etc
But we have to put this into context:
Today on a flat market,my systems were having a 5k gain.could be gone tomorrow, some gain probably will, but we are still making more money than losing.

 

[qldfrog]

Yesterday:
on a day with the market going up, my system lost 3.8k ..yep...let's just look at the 5k-3.8k figure

and then today arrived:
overall loss of $500 among systems..not ideal but manageable with 1.2k lost on one parcel of BNO
In weeks like this, the weekly system is definitively killing me, will wait Friday but do not expect better by then

A black week so far for my finances as I played relatively big on a USD rise vs the AUD and lost so far.So the high AUD is really killing me, smashing my US portfolio results and crashing the non system USD exposure
we are now in heavy DD territory vs end of November.Add a BTC crash and lucky I took some profit on BTC last week

 

[Craton]

Thanks for posting this up qldfrog.
Good to read about the good, the bad and the ugly from others like yourself, makes one feel almost normal within the machinations of the market.

Wishing you all the best with the "system/s" and do keep the dialog running.

 

[qldfrog]

Thanks for posting this up qldfrog.
Good to read about the good, the bad and the ugly from others like yourself, makes one feel almost normal within the machinations of the market.

Wishing you all the best with the "system/s" and do keep the dialog running.

yeap not really an incentive to work for your money:
today another nightmare: BKY back on marketand once again I had 3 packets and each down 19%, the sell order I had was canned by the share suspension;
I do believe this is the only code I had shared among multiple systems ..my luck.. so heavily hit
Only way to avoid these is preventing having the same code in multiple systems or reduce the number of systems;
Not ideal as comparing with Backtest does not work anymore then arrrrgg
Anyway not my week, everything which could go wrong did, btc, gold, usd, and individual packets

 

[qldfrog]

To be clear i manage 2 tallies: my systems and my systems plus the rest of traded investments which includes gold usd bonds here on the asx and in the nyse.
When the total is loosing hard in a benign environment, it can be hard to stomach.a mood issue probably
This does not question the systems which are overall performing better than i expected, and where lessons from losses are learnt and applied
So SL on weekly, limiting the exposure to a single stock between systems.
I checked the risk management per system, this is not enough
But in a nutshell i am significantly poorer overall than in November with no market crash to blame and this is not good.and cash is not the solution with inflation definitively here in my day to day expenses.bringing forward big expenses for that reason.
Hope it is not too personal.this is my journey..

 

[peter2]

I feel your frustration. It worries me to read your updates.

The last three months on the ASX have been a slow grind higher.


To be gaining value over the last three months, ASX portfolios needed to be well diversified, lucky or carry a large portfolio heat. It's very hard to hold with tight trailing stops. Those market dips would have triggered tight exit stops.

I'm pleased to see that your confidence in your systems is growing. I understand that you'll modify them and adapt them to your personal risk tolerance. I hope they're only minor mods, as altering systems on the run is a no no. I worry that this is what you're doing.

The trading activity outside your ASX systems seems to be a drag on overall performance. I don't like to see this. I hope the downside exposure of all your trading or investment activity is balanced. The probability that all activities have a drawdown at the same time should be low. When it does happen the DD should be manageable. We diversify our trading activity to reduce DDs.

I can't be more specific. I just hope that you have a couple of good weeks soon because I can't hold my breathe much longer.

 

[qldfrog]

I feel your frustration. It worries me to read your updates.

The last three months on the ASX have been a slow grind higher.
View attachment 120590

To be gaining value over the last three months, ASX portfolios needed to be well diversified, lucky or carry a large portfolio heat. It's very hard to hold with tight trailing stops. Those market dips would have triggered tight exit stops.

I'm pleased to see that your confidence in your systems is growing. I understand that you'll modify them and adapt them to your personal risk tolerance. I hope they're only minor mods, as altering systems on the run is a no no. I worry that this is what you're doing.

The trading activity outside your ASX systems seems to be a drag on overall performance. I don't like to see this. I hope the downside exposure of all your trading or investment activity is balanced. The probability that all activities have a drawdown at the same time should be low. When it does happen the DD should be manageable. We diversify our trading activity to reduce DDs.

I can't be more specific. I just hope that you have a couple of good weeks soon because I can't hold my breathe much longer.

Thanks a lot for your concern Peter
Changes in systems has been very limited.no risk there
In the last few monthsa
a brand new BO system..going fine until a packet of bky came by...
on the weekly,i have reinstated SL. A bit of work but so far no negative effect as it is quite wide..nearly 30pc not to go into details
And just a few tinkling on ema period etc on the other systems.
Systems are going overall fine..even with the successive hits mentionned but i have even more in supposedly stable investment.the reason i am able to usually stomack system yoyo
Newcrest,rrl,pmgold just reinvested recently yet crashing, USD ETF and usd currency NYSE portfolio,agl,australian bonds and a few plays like RTF, BTC, S32.no winners even rtf was long in red after purchase
That supposedly conservative part is losing money by the shovel,
it was not long ago that AUD was at 62c USD, now we are at 80c thats 25pc hit
That and its side effect on POG in AUD is a nuclear bomb.not the protection it was supposed to bring
Thanks to our federal banks, we have no place to play safe haven, and inflation is coming to get cash.

 

[qldfrog]

what a week, thankfully, the mini crash today raised the USD and I am nearly better today than yesterday:
Systems handled the fall quite well considering the context except for the volatility US which went bullish at the wrong time and blew 2k :-(
So the dailies:
DLQFDuc +$1k or +0.96% 30% invested
DLBO -$1k or -1.6% 47% invested
DLGuppy took a hit -$2.6k or -4%
volatility ASX +$0.2k or +0.5%
volatility US -$1.5k or -7.33% (small amount invested (now <20k) so the figures

Weekly saw a lot of SL triggered this week;
-$0.45k or -0.45% and 50% invested

overall:-$4.35k or -1%
better than XNT and current cash is 41%.bring the crash but quick

 

[qldfrog]

Worst situation yoyo.
So delay/gap ensuring maximum loss, going bear on bull day and bull on bear day,rince and repeat
It took courage/stupidity to follow my systems and buy bull this morning .
Small consolation, i cashed up most if not all other non system shares last week.the asx bull was already over byvmidday and not acting would have saved me 3k or so...so far, add cost of brokerage and this is becoming a lose lose game?

 

[qldfrog]

and expected bloodshed is here..1k loss on volatility US and 3k on volatility ASX in a day -(
And in place to double these tomorrow :-(

 

[qldfrog]

edited as I did a mistake during EOW price update;
no real big difference but for the sake of precision:
eow: the carnage did happen:
one system even managed to sell on open on rising day and buy on open on falling day: rinse and repeat nearly everyday
Others just down anyway: horrendous:
So daily systems:
DLQFduc:-$1,416.75 -1.33%
DLBreak Out:-$1,596.46 -2.53%
DLGuppy:-$4.3k -6.9%
volatility ASX -$4.2k or -8.5%
volatility US:-$1.4k or -7.5%
weekly QFDuc -$2.3k or-2.35%
total damage:-$15k my worst experience so far adding to an horrible previous week;
any positive light? my overall losses this week were -$12k so I managed to gain $3k from my other exposures discretionary/currency/bonds and PM;
Note: I do not take crypto into account as i find hard to call these investments;
Tonight, these 6 systems are 65% cash,with only Guppy fully invested,
and sadly the volatility systems failed me heavily and are now in the red if seen as one-> failing in their crash control role as we had no real crash...
And overall we have lost half of the gains i had early January.
looking for a better week on Monday: even manage to get a flat tyre today, Karma is a B tch?

 

[frugal.rock]

Tonight, these 6 systems are 65% cash,with only Guppy fully invested,
and sadly the volatility systems failed me heavily and are now in the red if seen as one-> failing in their crash control role as we had no real crash...

I'm wondering if you have too many systems, or rather, too many factors that systems need to be able to cope with that are getting tested at the moment ?
The whole USD to AUD thing scares me, as it seemingly can get out of hand at a respectable pace at times.

One thing that scares me about systems, is, it would need to be a bloody good system for me to stick to it blindly.
The equity curve is the equity curve. It's honest. Its unbiased. Ideally, It should also fall within system expectancy parameters/ ranges.
One has to love those outlier blowups that push the curve above ranges, but also expect the reverse outliers.
If a system is consistently falling below expectancy, is there something in the rules to deal with it?

Got any charts of your systems growth Frog? If so, do they fall within your expected results ranges?

And overall we have lost half of the gains i had early January.

Giving back gains is not nice, especially when their hard won.
I feel for you there.

Chart below is self explanatory, and is my "loose" systematic discretionary portfolio based on Skate, Peter2 & Tech/a techniques & methods.
There are clearly periods of time (mostly last year) where i wasn't actively managing the portfolio as well as I could of.
Was preoccupied with family, work, a death etc etc etc, but to me, they (each PITA event) clearly show up in the chart.
I didn't have my mind in the game, wasn't following the flow. Not locking in profits etc. The bloody market nearly caught up!
Portfolio was started middle of August 2020, around 30 weeks.



Hopefully once this wave of rising bond yields gets sorted, we have some normalcy return, whatever that is these days.
The whole bigger picture of bonds, interest rates, yields, inflation etc etc confounds me, as I haven't managed to get my head around how it all works.
It really needs a big flow chart with all the affecting variables/ interconnecting links. It seems like the more I learn, the less i know....
Cheers, and have a good weekend Mr Frog.