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Qld cyclone

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My son who is a weather nerd said the cyclone is weakening, getting wind shear from the colder south which shows as blackness around the cone, too cold not enough water. It is very far south for a cyclone.

They are saying Friday now so, by then, may be not so bad
 
To all ASF members in Brisbane and surrounds. Stay safe.
Brisbane does have a history of massive rainfalls from Cyclones.
Don't go breaking any records...:cautious:

Most Daily Precipitation in Brisbane History

www.extremeweatherwatch.com

Meanwhile people are lining up to see just how big the waves can get.

Beachgoers warned of $16k fines as Alfred whips up massive surf

For many in south-east Queensland and northern NSW a trip to the beach before the cyclone's onslaught has proved irresistible, but those on the Gold Coast are risking stiff penalties.
www.abc.net.au
 
common-sense, thou art a fickle friend
.

As the weather bureau pumps out crucial cyclone information, millions look elsewhere​

ByNick O'Malley and Bianca Hall​

06 March, 2025

During the fraught wait for Cyclone Alfred to make landfall, millions of Australians are relying on the Bureau of Meteorology to update them on the storm’s expected trajectory, but increasingly, people are looking elsewhere, too, including a range of online independent and even amateur forecasters.

“We like to see ourselves as a weather family,” says Thomas Hinterdorfer, chief forecaster for Higgins Storm Chasing, an independent weather service that grew out of the social media accounts and blogs of a small group of storm chasers which now has around 1.3 million followers online. That’s more, says Hinterdorfer, than the Bureau of Meteorology.

Hinterdorfer, a 30-year-old who admits to being “addicted to extreme weather” for a decade, believes the group’s popularity is born of the interactive nature of their work as much as its forecasts.
“People hate seeing the damage caused by extreme weather,” he says, but they are “drawn into the wow factor of the storms and what they look like. They love the reports. They love seeing how much rain people are getting ... the size of the hail.
“I think with our social media page, people are definitely loving the fact that they can see all the storms. Whenever there’s a storm in Queensland, we’re going to see a photo of it; there’s gonna be someone that sends a photo in.”

But can people trust the predictions of amateur forecasters analysing a threat such as Cyclone Alfred compared with the staff of the BoM? Hinterdorfer reckons they can, boasting that though untrained, Higgins’ three full-time employees have 60 years of experience in forecasting and storm chasing between them.

“We know how to forecast, and we’re good at forecasting,” he says
 
Dona Ferentes said:
common-sense, thou art a fickle friend
.

As the weather bureau pumps out crucial cyclone information, millions look elsewhere​

ByNick O'Malley and Bianca Hall​

06 March, 2025

During the fraught wait for Cyclone Alfred to make landfall, millions of Australians are relying on the Bureau of Meteorology to update them on the storm’s expected trajectory, but increasingly, people are looking elsewhere, too, including a range of online independent and even amateur forecasters.

“We like to see ourselves as a weather family,” says Thomas Hinterdorfer, chief forecaster for Higgins Storm Chasing, an independent weather service that grew out of the social media accounts and blogs of a small group of storm chasers which now has around 1.3 million followers online. That’s more, says Hinterdorfer, than the Bureau of Meteorology.

Hinterdorfer, a 30-year-old who admits to being “addicted to extreme weather” for a decade, believes the group’s popularity is born of the interactive nature of their work as much as its forecasts.
“People hate seeing the damage caused by extreme weather,” he says, but they are “drawn into the wow factor of the storms and what they look like. They love the reports. They love seeing how much rain people are getting ... the size of the hail.
“I think with our social media page, people are definitely loving the fact that they can see all the storms. Whenever there’s a storm in Queensland, we’re going to see a photo of it; there’s gonna be someone that sends a photo in.”

But can people trust the predictions of amateur forecasters analysing a threat such as Cyclone Alfred compared with the staff of the BoM? Hinterdorfer reckons they can, boasting that though untrained, Higgins’ three full-time employees have 60 years of experience in forecasting and storm chasing between them.

“We know how to forecast, and we’re good at forecasting,” he says
Click to expand...
From experience, much better than BOM, which is not hard to do lately.
Again and again and again...
 


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