(13th-November-2012 ) I'm in with the superfund at $11QBE is a superstar business with some short term difficulty's that is giving regular short/mid term trading opportunities and this time im taking that opportunity...have a look at the 2 year chart, 4 major lows all followed by substantial recovery's...i expect the same again.
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Hmmmm. I am still hanging out for $13.95. I was thinking of letting half go at the close but with buyers almost doubling sellers I am still hoping to reach the above mark.
This strategy didn’t exactly work for CPA but there is still hope for that one also.
offloaded half at 13.51 as we were approaching the meteor potential touch down...
I always remember that most usually, qbe falls after a disaster so a token profit seems quite ok.
will hang up a little more for the remaining half but probably not too much
I believe QBE should not be handled as other stocks due to its specific domain and risk
my 2c only and I still own
Surprised there is nothing here about QBE. It has taken off recently, benefiting from a fall of the AUD an possible interest rate increases in the US.
QBE Insurance Group - A bit of give and take
● QBE delivered reported NPAT of US$477 mn, 7.5% below traders forecast, and insurance profit of US$790 mn, 3.5% below traders forecast. At the underlying level, the result was above traders expectations; however, this was more than offset by ‘one-off’ negatives.
● We were encouraged by a 1H13 underlying margin of 13.0%, well above previous FY13 guidance of 12%. This was driven by an improvement in the underlying loss ratio on the FY12 base.
● We have lowered our FY13 NPAT by 4.4% and FY14 by 7.8%, primarily driven by currency and reduction in GWP. In AUD, our NPAT changes are only -2.0% in FY13 and -2.9% in FY14E.
● We consider the QBE recovery story to remain on track, but caution the expectation of an immediate turnaround and significant macro uplift in earnings. We maintain our NEUTRAL rating and A$17.25 target price.
Even tougher was that I was the bank and insurance analyst - and banks and insurance companies are black boxes for almost everyone and dimly lit rooms of mirrors for an accounting junky. There are some people who do it really well but it isn't easy. The first 150 or so posts on this blog are about financial institutions - and whilst I can look back on those and be proud I sometimes wonder why I contributed so much intellectual effort to an area where exceptional returns are so difficult.
I've always kept an eye on QBE.... but admittedly still really don't understand how to value it in some kind of meaningful way (as much as I probably have convinced myself otherwise at certain stages). I go through periods of thinking it looks really cheap (sub $13 to pick a somewhat arbitrary figure) and then thinking I've missed the boat (when it rises quickly). I'm fairly sure looking back, that despite all of the mental energy / emotional reactions, that whether it's luck or bad timing or conscious decision making (it's probably not because I've told myself I would if it went to $X again) that I haven't bought it, that doing nothing was and probably is the best approach. More than anything the experience I've had with not owning it shows how easy the whims of the market, the downgrades and the whole box and dice would have too much an impact on me to be able to hold it through thick and thin, if after all and said and done any investment thesis I had even holds up. It's too hard for me, and I'm probably kidding myself if I said I knew enough about the industry / business to make a reliable decision!FFS, not again.
I think I'll be taking a leaf out of John Hempton's latest blog...
My original casino analogy has been blown up.
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