QBE - QBE Insurance Group

[So_Cynical]

(13th-November-2012 ) I'm in with the superfund at $11 QBE is a superstar business with some short term difficulty's that is giving regular short/mid term trading opportunities and this time im taking that opportunity...have a look at the 2 year chart, 4 major lows all followed by substantial recovery's...i expect the same again.
~

Superfund Trade #9 completed today ($12.91) with a 16.55% Profit....turned out that it was just to simple.

Lets just hope she falls to $10 again... wouldn't that be nice.
~

 

[willstor]

Not really given it typically coincides with a natural disaster of some sort.

 

[UMike]

Hmmmm. I am still hanging out for $13.95. I was thinking of letting half go at the close but with buyers almost doubling sellers I am still hoping to reach the above mark.

This strategy didn’t exactly work for CPA but there is still hope for that one also.

 

[So_Cynical]

Hmmmm. I am still hanging out for $13.95. I was thinking of letting half go at the close but with buyers almost doubling sellers I am still hoping to reach the above mark.

This strategy didn’t exactly work for CPA but there is still hope for that one also.

I didn't want to see it reverse on me, the capital raising talk of a few months ago is still relevant, and with the run up in price i imagine a discount back to $11/$12 or so would be the go.

 

[qldfrog]

offloaded half at 13.51 as we were approaching the meteor potential touch down...
I always remember that most usually, qbe falls after a disaster so a token profit seems quite ok.
will hang up a little more for the remaining half but probably not too much
I believe QBE should not be handled as other stocks due to its specific domain and risk
my 2c only and I still own

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

offloaded half at 13.51 as we were approaching the meteor potential touch down...
I always remember that most usually, qbe falls after a disaster so a token profit seems quite ok.
will hang up a little more for the remaining half but probably not too much
I believe QBE should not be handled as other stocks due to its specific domain and risk
my 2c only and I still own

I'm not in QBE, I missed last move up.

Stand on your tongue frog, and look at recent action on chart below over 2 years, it could even be a complex head and shoulders. I will keep an eye on it.

It may break above resistance at $14, but to be really symmetrical it may retreat to $12 before doing that.

gg

 

[jank]

Surprised there is nothing here about QBE. It has taken off recently, benefiting from a fall of the AUD an possible interest rate increases in the US.

 

[piggybank]

It's still continuing in the right direction..

 

[Sharkman]

Surprised there is nothing here about QBE. It has taken off recently, benefiting from a fall of the AUD an possible interest rate increases in the US.

i've put down my views on QBE in the context of a series of options trades i did on it here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26867

on seeing the rally today i opted to spread off my long aug call position struck at 16 by selling the aug 18 calls for 30.5c. i have the aug 16 calls effectively for free, after factoring in the previous calendar spreads i did, so i wanted to make sure i at least came away with something from the whole exercise, in the event of a downside shock at the interim profit announcement that causes it to drop like a stone and put my 16 strike calls OTM.

in any case, to push significantly higher from here in the short run, the interim profit numbers are going to have to shoot the lights out IMHO - even on the most optimistic full year EPS analyst forecast (98.1c according to commsec) that is a P/E of nearly 18 at todays closing price. i don't know if a P/E that high is justified for an insurance company in this day and age, given the risks they face.

i agree the strengthening US economy and falling AUD/USD helps QBE, but how much of that has already been factored into the share price? they have been on a strong run for a while now. maybe someone with more technical expertise than i might like to opine on whether this rally is starting to look overcooked? with the IVs starting to become elevated due to the impending profit announcement, i felt selling premium was a good way to lock in a guaranteed profit from the whole sequence of options trades, and the 18 strike still gives decent profit potential on the top side.

 

[skc]

You have to say that QBE has been a consistent performer for the last 2 years... That's 4 earning surprises in a row. Today's fall is pretty mild compared to some of the previous reactions, but this is becoming a trend...

 

[oldblue]

Hindsight is a wonderful investment tool but, given that interest rates are where they are - and have been recently - perhaps too much was expected of QBE this time?

 

[notting]

A good retrace down to 13 would be nice. Seems a bit optimistic given it will be earning at least 2x as much from bonds. Could be even more if this week is any indication of things to come.

 

[Sharkman]

it rebounded quite quickly to the 16 level today and stayed close to it for much of the day though, so it may find some support again at the 16 level, which seems to have been supported fairly well from 2009 thru to mid-2011 in my opinion.

i am currently long a 16-18 aug call spread. i didn't take it off today as i opted to take a bit of a punt on a knee jerk rally tomorrow, hell, i'm long gamma, figured i've got a little room to roll the dice a bit. but regardless of whether that actually happens or not, am going to have to take the spread off tomorrow before the nasty decay kicks in on the 16 strike calls.

after that, probably wait and see for a bit. if the 16 level can hold firm until the end of the week, might consider selling aug puts at 16 if given a reasonably high IV - punt on the 16 support level holding and scoop up the final week theta.

 

[ROE]

Talk of US QE tapering will keep upside uncertainty for a while I reckon...

who wants to dump or short it and then the Fed stop printing money and bond yield rally

 

[Covalev]

QBE Insurance Group - A bit of give and take

● QBE delivered reported NPAT of US$477 mn, 7.5% below traders forecast, and insurance profit of US$790 mn, 3.5% below traders forecast. At the underlying level, the result was above traders expectations; however, this was more than offset by ‘one-off’ negatives.

● We were encouraged by a 1H13 underlying margin of 13.0%, well above previous FY13 guidance of 12%. This was driven by an improvement in the underlying loss ratio on the FY12 base.

● We have lowered our FY13 NPAT by 4.4% and FY14 by 7.8%, primarily driven by currency and reduction in GWP. In AUD, our NPAT changes are only -2.0% in FY13 and -2.9% in FY14E.

● We consider the QBE recovery story to remain on track, but caution the expectation of an immediate turnaround and significant macro uplift in earnings. We maintain our NEUTRAL rating and A$17.25 target price.

 

[Country Lad]

QBE Insurance Group - A bit of give and take

● QBE delivered reported NPAT of US$477 mn, 7.5% below traders forecast, and insurance profit of US$790 mn, 3.5% below traders forecast. At the underlying level, the result was above traders expectations; however, this was more than offset by ‘one-off’ negatives.

● We were encouraged by a 1H13 underlying margin of 13.0%, well above previous FY13 guidance of 12%. This was driven by an improvement in the underlying loss ratio on the FY12 base.

● We have lowered our FY13 NPAT by 4.4% and FY14 by 7.8%, primarily driven by currency and reduction in GWP. In AUD, our NPAT changes are only -2.0% in FY13 and -2.9% in FY14E.

● We consider the QBE recovery story to remain on track, but caution the expectation of an immediate turnaround and significant macro uplift in earnings. We maintain our NEUTRAL rating and A$17.25 target price.

Thanks for that but you may be creating a problem for Joe with the "we" bit. If you are quoting a broker without reference to them, you may be creating a copyright problem, particularly if it is from material not in the public domain.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[notting]

Taking a hit on the au$ and bonds.
Target of 13 in view.

 

[skc]

QBE in trading halt pending review of the North America operations.

Probability says this can't be great news.

How many profit downgrade has QBE gone through now in the last 2 years?

QBE has always been touted as a well managed company and its aura has lasted quite sometime, given how well it rises out of those downgrades. I wonder if this time it would be different.

Not a good week for companies beginning with Q...

 

[McLovin]

FFS, not again.

I think I'll be taking a leaf out of John Hempton's latest blog...

Even tougher was that I was the bank and insurance analyst - and banks and insurance companies are black boxes for almost everyone and dimly lit rooms of mirrors for an accounting junky. There are some people who do it really well but it isn't easy. The first 150 or so posts on this blog are about financial institutions - and whilst I can look back on those and be proud I sometimes wonder why I contributed so much intellectual effort to an area where exceptional returns are so difficult.

My original casino analogy has been blown up.

 

[Ves]

FFS, not again.

I think I'll be taking a leaf out of John Hempton's latest blog...



My original casino analogy has been blown up.

I've always kept an eye on QBE.... but admittedly still really don't understand how to value it in some kind of meaningful way (as much as I probably have convinced myself otherwise at certain stages). I go through periods of thinking it looks really cheap (sub $13 to pick a somewhat arbitrary figure) and then thinking I've missed the boat (when it rises quickly). I'm fairly sure looking back, that despite all of the mental energy / emotional reactions, that whether it's luck or bad timing or conscious decision making (it's probably not because I've told myself I would if it went to $X again) that I haven't bought it, that doing nothing was and probably is the best approach. More than anything the experience I've had with not owning it shows how easy the whims of the market, the downgrades and the whole box and dice would have too much an impact on me to be able to hold it through thick and thin, if after all and said and done any investment thesis I had even holds up. It's too hard for me, and I'm probably kidding myself if I said I knew enough about the industry / business to make a reliable decision!