Www.bond-bubble.com but take them with a grain of salt I would like to compare with the depression in the 1920's.
I second the above, would be great to get some research into historical bond yields. Does anyone know the % of assets that QBE hold in bonds? The next course of action is of course seeing what a 1% rise in bonds would do to income for QBE. This would give an indication on how much QBE have to gain from any bond yield rises.
I second the above, would be great to get some research into historical bond yields. Does anyone know the % of assets that QBE hold in bonds? The next course of action is of course seeing what a 1% rise in bonds would do to income for QBE. This would give an indication on how much QBE have to gain from any bond yield rises.
This is actually unusual - high probability that one will give bringing equity risk premiums back into historical norms. question is which one.the status quo of low bond yields and cheap equity prices.
Bond bubble is also probably debatable when viewed as part of very long term history.
Any idea what their historical cost of float has been like? I honestly don't know enough about insurance to be able to sift through the validity of their loss provisioning etc. to be able to make a judgment call on this kind of thing.It's about $20b in fixed interest with a blended yield of just over 3%. There's another ~$8b in cash and short term money. Since yields on treasuries have collapsed they have been getting into commerical paper. So you'd also need to pay attention to credit spreads. In the HY report they said 25bp move in credit spreads = $80m to their investment income.
Any idea what their historical cost of float has been like? I honestly don't know enough about insurance to be able to sift through the validity of their loss provisioning etc. to be able to make a judgment call on this kind of thing.
Any idea what their historical cost of float has been like? I honestly don't know enough about insurance to be able to sift through the validity of their loss provisioning etc. to be able to make a judgment call on this kind of thing.
Bought in again at $10.10.
Way oversold in a nervous market imo.
No ann for the 5% odd drop yesterday. Nice to see a bit of a bounce today but it all seems a bit negative atm.
QBE took a pounding today following market speculation that a capital raising may be in the wings. QBE's gearing is well above their average and lower interest rates domestically will likely mean less return on their 'float' (large swag of funds held (premiums) to payout claims as necessary). QBE closed the day down a shocking 4.72% or 50 cents to $10.10
well done UMike..350 odd posts in 5 years...and your buying the bottoms, i seem to remember you from another thread????Bought in again at $10.10.
Way oversold in a nervous market imo.
No ann for the 5% odd drop yesterday. Nice to see a bit of a bounce today but it all seems a bit negative atm.
well done UMike..350 odd posts in 5 years...and your buying the bottoms, i seem to remember you from another thread????
And did so I am happy to write.Maybe a recent post in CPA looking to buy in at $1.01 ?
Research on mean reversion indicates the sweetspot is around 4Y. 4Y avg in this case looks like it's heading towards $16 (intersecting with heavy S/R zone), which would make a 36% gain off todays close.
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