Practical use of Elliott Wave analysis

[Sean K]

Think Ive served the purpose well enough here to now leave this thread.

No you haven't.

Tech, I was genuinely looking to see how EW is applied 'practically' to see how it generates trades. You have more than cleared this up to mean it's another tool to make trade decisions.

I don't think I've seen a live trade based on any EW input.

To really see how this is 'practical' at all, it needs to be seen to be applied in real time. No retrospective stuff with charts that somehow have conformed to it in some way.

This is a great opportunity for EW to stand up and say 'IT WORKS!'

Or, it just has no value at all...

 

[Boggo]

Bump.

Too simplistic or not interested? I thought this would be an interesting example to follow, but maybe not.

Sorry Chris, been meaning to get back to you, no hurry, its doing what we expected, we picked the end of W.3, lets wait for the next clue as to how W.4 will play and plan accordingly.
Will have another look over the weekend though.

Does AGET have RRL in a W.5 with a min target around $2.85 ??

Fair enough.
I see Fundamental analysis as a gross waste of time---subjective and of no use to me.
So can understand your and others views.

Many cant understand why a system could be a good idea.

Fundamental analysis as I see quoted on here regularly is usually out of step with what is actually happening with a stock.
The people 'in the know' would love it if everyone adopted a fundamental approach as all they have to do is produce a bit of literary euphoria and they have an instant buying audience.

Compare the last year on charts of TLS and LEI with those fundamentally sound stocks such as MND and SUL, how often do you hear much (if anything) about the latter two.

I do understand how it seems to be the way to go, I did it for nearly four years that way.
In reality I was being told what to buy by the directors of the company or by an "expert" commentary by an advisor or broker who had a either a vested interest in seeing the stock being driven up or were looking for someone to sell to as they knew what was around the corner.
My only contribution was that I was pressing the buy button, everything else was dependant on what others told me.

Have a look at this video by LEI in October 2010 and then look at the share price at the same time and since then... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YabuZE462DY

EW is a bit more complex than just looking at a couple of moving averages as you are aware tech/a and consequently requires a bit more time, learning and dedication.
You can learn how to drive car a couple of days but a couple of years to learn how to fly a plane.
Passengers are often critical and have a commentary ("why are we going this way, the airport is over there ?") on how a flight should have been flown and always know if the landing was a bit fast or slow though

 

[tech/a]

No you haven't.

Tech, I was genuinely looking to see how EW is applied 'practically' to see how it generates trades. You have more than cleared this up to mean it's another tool to make trade decisions.

I don't think I've seen a live trade based on any EW input.

To really see how this is 'practical' at all, it needs to be seen to be applied in real time. No retrospective stuff with charts that somehow have conformed to it in some way.

This is a great opportunity for EW to stand up and say 'IT WORKS!'

Or, it just has no value at all...

Kennas.
Frankly I dont care wether you find or have found value in my posts.
You cant see past the need to use Elliott in your view in its purest form. I have always stated that the thread would be practical application of E/W---Mine as thats all I know.

It is used by me as a guide to where an instrument is in its life.
That in turn influences the way I trade both portfolio's and Indexes.
As can be evidenced in my posts. Clearly the charts show pay testiment to the analysis both at the turning point of wave 3 and now at wave 4.

To those of you who see E/W as of no value great go on and use whatever it is that you use. Your right it has absolutely no value---to you. These posts are there for those---if any--- who wish to investigate further.

 

[Boggo]

To those of you who see E/W as of no value great go on and use whatever it is that you use. Your right it has absolutely no value---to you. These posts are there for those---if any--- who wish to investigate further.

:iagree:

 

[Chris45]

Does AGET have RRL in a W.5 with a min target around $2.85 ??

Boggo, targets seem to differ depending on the start point (which is logical). I set mine to start from 6Oct08 (is that where your count starts?) and it shows RRL is now in W5 with min target of $3.08 & max of $3.86. Can post a chart if you want.

 

[Sean K]

Kennas.
Frankly I dont care wether you find or have found value in my posts.
You cant see past the need to use Elliott in your view in its purest form. I have always stated that the thread would be practical application of E/W---Mine as thats all I know.

It is used by me as a guide to where an instrument is in its life.
That in turn influences the way I trade both portfolio's and Indexes.
As can be evidenced in my posts. Clearly the charts show pay testiment to the analysis both at the turning point of wave 3 and now at wave 4.

To those of you who see E/W as of no value great go on and use whatever it is that you use. Your right it has absolutely no value---to you. These posts are there for those---if any--- who wish to investigate further.

Tech, We're obviously not going to agree to disagree here, so I'll agree to that!

Apart from the 15 or so grammatical errors in your last post, you have added significant insight to the great unwashed. Both in how to read a chart and the value of expensive software.

Clearly the charts show pay testiment to the analysis both at the turning point of wave 3 and now at wave 4.

Your EW is now calling a W4 top and we're in the midst of down leg to W5. So, in the Tech mantra you use this as a means to be positioned with negative bias. Sell, or hedge.

Can't you incorporate your EW musings with some live trades so we can see it work.

Not live, as in 'real' trades, just some live hypotheticals will do.

If it's not consistent, repeatable and testable it is NOT a science, but mere quackery.

 

[tech/a]

Kennas you really have to take some time to actually ATTEMPT to understand posts.
I have posted BOTH daily and weekly charts
The daily is displaying a perfect wave 3 correction to Wave 4 now moving towards wave 5
The weekly is showing a wave 4
Both counts are still valid.

Clearly you have absolutely no idea----thats absolutely no idea.
Note the two charts See the "W" in the top area and the "D" in the other.

Mate Ill help anyone who is GENUINELY interested but I wont waste my time with someone who is clearly only interested in being a pedantic moron.

DAILY


WEEKLY

 

[Sean K]

Kennas you really have to take some time to actually ATTEMPT to understand posts.
I have posted BOTH daily and weekly charts
The daily is displaying a perfect wave 3 correction to Wave 4 now moving towards wave 5
The weekly is showing a wave 4
Both counts are still valid.

Clearly you have absolutely no idea----thats absolutely no idea.
Note the two charts See the "W" in the top area and the "D" in the other.

Mate Ill help anyone who is GENUINELY interested but I wont waste my time with someone who is clearly only interested in being a pedantic moron.

DAILY
View attachment 42514

WEEKLY
View attachment 42515

I'll skip counting grammatical errors now. Grammar is overrated in the day of txt.

Tech, I love you like a brother mate. Just one with more hair than I, and more styled.

The charts you've posted don't tell us anything about 'practical use'.

Entry, exit, profit, loss, full justification, live - perhaps.

I do not care in the slightest if one example fails. I want to see it tested and repeated and how it's practical. If you enter on an EW basis, and that proves incorrect, and then you sell according to EW, then it works!!

Step up to the plate.

 

[mazzatelli]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think tech has already stated that EW is used as his "theme" for other trading signals, rather than micromanagement for entries and exits.

A fundamental data analogy: a macroeconomic model determines a recessionary theme [Duration 6 - 24 months]. This dictates an overall trend to trade e.g. [net] short equities, [net] long fixed income etc

It isn't static like EW [admittedly it doesn't chop and change with the same frequency], as more data/policies releases updates the theme. This model in itself does not provide an entry/exit.

 

[tech/a]

I do not care in the slightest if one example fails. I want to see it tested and repeated and how it's practical. If you enter on an EW basis, and that proves incorrect, and then you sell according to EW, then it works!!

Your asking me to demonstrate something which I dont use in that way???
How clear do I have to make it???
Boggo uses it in a similar way and it works well for him as well.

What about the analysis on the PEN thread that was specific and in real time to PEN?

Hell Im happy to run a few. Doesnt bother me
ELM is already under discussion.
RRL is also.
Yes to the question
"Does AGET have RRL in a W.5 with a min target around $2.85 ??"



Oh and My brother and I should not be left in a room together!
It gets ugly.

 

[Chris45]

Does AGET have RRL in a W.5 with a min target around $2.85 ??

I might be doing this wrong but W5 projection is $3.08 to $3.86.

MOB level (probably more significant) is about $2.85.

 

[tech/a]

I might be doing this wrong but W5 projection is $3.08 to $3.86.

MOB level (probably more significant) is about $2.85.

View attachment 42525

All legitimate levels.
Chris how do you get so many bars displayed?

 

[Chris45]

Chris how do you get so many bars displayed?

 

[Boggo]

Trading it, wave 2's are always easier to trade as they tend to form a more symmetrical ABC and the W.3 is the money run.
I look for similiar in the W.4 and either re-enter when it shows signs of turning at an expected level or wait for a confirmation break of the B if it seems to be a simple ABC rather than a complex pattern.
Waiting for a break of the previous W.3 high generally looks good but usually has a limited travel (expectation).

Here is an example of why W.4's are often hard work and why I tend to ignore them if there are better options available.

The chart below is RRL, the decision point projected from the top of W.3 gives a worthwhile R/R from the entry at the TS3 buy signal.
Assume that you enter as indicated and the price runs up to greater than 100% initial risk and you move your stop to breakeven.
Then the software detects a reversal of trend and you get a sell signal, the stop eventually gets taken out and you are out at breakeven (ignoring slippage and brokerage for the example) only to see the price continue down but not take out the original stop that was applied when you bought.

The price then continued on its way up and achieved the initial target

These W.4 situations regularly pose the same questions, ie. should I leave the stop at the original level or move it to breakeven, should I enter at the turn on the "C" ($1.99) as indicated, wait for a close above the "B" ($2.28) or wait for a close above the high of W.3 ($2.46) to enter.

The majority of the time I put W.4's in the too hard basket but in this case of RRL I have done the latter mainly because I am influenced by pattern of the run up and the likely target projections that Chris45 and tech/a have mentioned which are all valid as minimum, typical and maximum targets.

Just my

(click to expand)

 

[Boggo]

The target areas...

(click to expand)

 

[Boggo]

And to appease the fundies, a fundamentally sound stock (MND) with a bit of tech analysis attached because I couldn't help myself

tech/a or Chris45, how does AGET treat this ?
On the first chart we seem to have had a 5 wave sequence and an ABC correction that is greater in price and time than any previous correction, next stop to just under $25 ??

Second chart below is from MTPredictor, it picked the turn in a scan a couple of days ago and has placed a R/R on the minimum expectation.
You will note that the count is different on this chart, MTPredictor works back from the last pivot using what they refer to as an "isolation approach", ie. it builds a pattern backwards and sometimes you get this difference.
It is treating this last ABC as a W.4.

Typical target areas on both cases seem to be within 20c of each other though.

(click to expand)

 

[tech/a]

This concurs and probably explains it

 

[Chris45]

tech/a or Chris45, how does AGET treat this ?

Boggo, my default GET count seems to concur with your first chart.

MND ticked all of the boxes for a buy on 6-Dec-10 but no trade is being signaled at this time. Fibs seem to be working well!

 

[Boggo]

Thanks guys, looks like its got potential.

Interesting where AGET has plotted the "C" of the W.4 on your chart Chris.
I would have thought it would have been a few days later ?

 

[Chris45]

Interesting where AGET has plotted the "C" of the W.4 on your chart Chris. I would have thought it would have been a few days later ?

Yes, that is curious. I wonder if the fact that the C = 0.618*A might have something to do with it. Quirk of the programming I suppose.

The "Osc 5,35" is similar to a smoothed 5,35 MACD (don't know the exact parameters), but plotted as a histogram instead of a line, and when it turns up from below zero as it did on 6Dec, it seems to give some good buy signals. I think A. Elder uses that concept in his systems.