Impressions from Elliott Wave revisionist Glenn Neely's seminar

[Frank D]

The big difference between Glen Neely and myself is, I don’t have the try and describe my model or methodology using fish or any other analogy to get my message across.

I’ll let you into a little secret.

Trading is about support and resistance. Understand this and you’re on your way.


Anyone who can charge 5k is a genius; anyone who pays 5k is an idiot.

Cheers
Frank

 

[Magdoran]

Hi Mags,

The testing and development is going well and provides for a bit of fun and experimentation.

The main aim is developing filters to identify particular patterns or characteristics that are of interest. Really a system/strategy trader at heart, with an increasing focus on futures and currency as opposed to stocks.

Have finally managed to put together the remaining outstanding parts of my Wyckoff collection, or as much as I can without doing the SMI course.

Reading Hank Pruden's "The Three Skills of Top Trading: Behavioural Systems Building, Pattern Recognition and Mental State Management" at the moment, as well Wyckoff's book on Tape Reading.

From an EW perspective, my preference is for Neely's approach. Have copies of Prechter, Miner, Bolton and Droke, as well.

While Neely may have changed his view, for whatever reason, his EW work still covers the method in a manner that appears to fill in some of the holes or missing aspects when compared to other works in this area.

At the end of the day, understanding wave structure is one element. Whereas, consistently interpreting and applying it in practice, while keeping it simple, needs to be the end game.

Regards,
Les.

Hello Les,


Sounds like you’re moving ahead with your Wyckoff studies, I really must find some time to seek out some of the works you, Snake and Motorway have been drawing from, this is currently a deficiency in my knowledge …

I haven’t read Pruden’s work (yet another future mission!), have you found this of value?

Also haven’t read Bolton or Droke (more “wood” for the “fire” hahaha!).

The more I look at wave structure (and having had the good fortune to learn a lot from wavepicker where I had glaring deficiencies), the more I see clever refinements by modern revisionist over the past 20 odd years based on a some really enlightened work from the turn of last century on.

But the common theme seems to be that these structures have repeated themselves over and over, hence the objective is to develop the capacity to effectively recognise these structures.

As you correctly point out though, this is one element, and fully agree with your notion that “consistently interpreting and applying it in practice, while keeping it simple, needs to be the end game.”


Kind Regards


Magdoran

 

[Magdoran]

Hi Mag,

Certainly the Neely seminar showed up some common problems most EW practioners encounter when dealing with EW Analysis.

Like the conventional EW practioner, Neely does not like ambiguities, subjectiveness, and multiple wave counts. As such he has attempted to rectify this by creating a more objective approach. There is some brilliant content in his book such as some of the ratio's patterns are priceless and often don't get the recognition they deserve.

Personally, I don't use his polywave or monowave stuff... just his very detailed info of wave structure in both time and price that ties in very well with the original Elliott works that helps to gain, more of a "feel" for the different types of wave personalities.

In his effort to make EW more objective however, and arrive at only one wave count, there is a plethora of extra rules and guidelines, way above and beyond what most EW parationers would use. Even contruction of his monowave charts are very time consuming and simply not feasible to trade. basically great for learning but too much work for too little gain.


I too have encountered the subjectivess, too many wave counts and ambiguities. I have in the last 3-4 years changed my approach by recognizing that there are 3 elements in overal market analysis:

-Pattern
-Price
-Time


The pattern aspect is the most important, and EW analysis as such will identufy most patterns one hopes, but there are other aspects that one should look at too. But pattern is also not always easily quantified. Time(time cycles) is the next most important. TIME is more important than price much more. It is the only thing that is constant and never changes, and when integrated with fibonacci relationships within price, one can have a powerful combination.


With the combined application of these 3 EW ambiguities and subjectiviness can be greatly reduced.

Cheers

Hello wavepicker!


I was hoping you’d give your perspective on our little outing… it was great that you located this opportunity to see Neely in action!

I’m in total agreement that “TIME is more important than price much more.” This is a conclusion I came to after much study into the subject. The dilemma I now face is that I am primarily pattern driven for locating and working with time, while I believe Yogi doesn’t even need the pattern. This has been bugging me for the last month or so...

So, having worked with EW structures, I found Neely’s time and pattern proportions using Fibonacci numbers intriguing as you say. The interesting thing is that I slowly moved to “Gann” increments using eights and thirds, rather than “Fib” increments (although I do use these for specific purposes) over time. As you know I work in these increments in time to forecast support/resistance in time, hence using “Fib” based increments I found were less effective (same is true for price extensions and retracements).

What is interesting is that I’m beginning to see how it may be possible to use “Fib” increments in time in concert with some of Neely’s proportions (have to do a lot of work on this and go right back in time and see if this is bourn out in reality in charts).

I was especially interested in his “bow tie” wave pattern. This is really interesting material, seeing a set of linked waves in what an ordinary person would see as a giant mess of random movements, catalogued and understood as a recurring market wave pattern phenomenon. Neely must have been truly inspired to see these complex wave structures, and be able to distill them into classifiable types.

I’m beginning to see how to better merge the Gann and EW materials... I have a pet theory that this is kind of like the physicist’s battle over wave and particle theories (or maybe quantum vs Relativity), that wave structure, and market cycles using geometric styles can in some ways be unified. Grasping Neely’s concept has inspired me to consider this in a new way (but I'm probably just reinventing the wheel that someone else discovered a long time ago but hasn’t published).

I agree, the objective is to minimise the ambiguities and subjectivity consistently and effectively in practice, as Les says, keeping it simple.


How is the delta material coming?


Warm Regards


Magdoran

 

[Magdoran]

Hi Magdoran,

Nice to see you back posting.
I appreciate the effort you put into your posts. It has helped me particularly with EW. As you know I am busy with some study that takes time so I am unable to contribute much in the sense of elaboration when it comes to EW. Wyckoff is a piece of cake compared to EW and is the basis of my discretionary approach. This thread has helped immensely and Wave and others have posted some thoughts which I appreciate too.

Regards
Snake

Hello Snake,


Just a few posts here and there, but nothing like the past (as you know there are things brewing on my home front). I’m glad it’s been helpful!

Actually if you really want to learn EW, wavepicker is about the best practitioner that I personally know (of course if we both knew Prechter or Neely they’d be wonderful resources!), so he can probably steer you better than I since my main usage of wave structures is quite unorthodox and in part derived from McLaren’s approach to using Prechter’s interpretation in his style.

The McLaren “Foundations” materials you’ve been looking at parallel a lot of the Prechter based EW patterns, but in a different format, and with proprietary approaches/perspectives of course.

Wavepicker and I share this perspective (McLaren’s), but wavepicker's ability to recognise the minutia in EW patterns is significantly more developed than mine, just as my geometric time cycle approach is my strength in the equation.

I still have to find time to look at Wyckoff in detail, and you can bank on it that I’ll be in contact with you and Les and (provided he’s amenable of course) Motorway when I’m ready!


Regards


Magdoran

 

[Magdoran]

Hi Magdoran,
I caught Glenn Neely in Sydney on the 31st of May and concurr with the general thrust of your critique. The first half of the night concerning the revision of EW theory I found most interesting. Of particularle interest was the inclusion of time parameters when calculating wave counts. I was motivated to investigate the book. The second half of the evening concerned with the new "river trading" as you have indicated, shows a depature from EW forecasting and a shift towards techniques to improve trading results. Whilst his "River" analogy was useful to convey his ideas, I kept thinking of similar techniques pulled from a wide range of trading legends. I am sure that the 5-6k course has a lot of detail that refined and enhanced his River theory, but it did seem, at the basic level he divulged on the night, he was trading a channel pattern. His theory provides the added explanation of the "tubulance" that may occurr at the "banks" of the channel and the accelerated price movement than can occurr in the middle of the channel; but it is still trading a defined channel pattern.

The highlight of the evening IMHO was meeting Catherine Davey author of Making Money From CFD Trading: and How I Turned $13k Into $30k In Three Months. It would appear she has written an article relating to the Neely presentation for Investorweb.

Hello jammin,


You encapsulated Neely’s “River Trading” approach very nicely… and I agree, the time parameters he uses in EW counts was certainly valuable.

Thanks for filling us in on what happened at the Sydney seminar. So, you didn’t go to his Neo Wave seminar that was held in Sydney (that seemed better priced at around $600)? It’s a shame he only did this for one night in Sydney… (For all those not in Sydney of course! Hahaha).

Unfortunately we didn’t get Catherine Davey at the Melbourne seminar, I would have loved to have asked her some curly questions since derivatives are another passion of mine…



Regards


Magdoran

P.S. Do you play by the way? I still have my electric guitar and amp… now, I bet you’re a fan of “Spinal Tap”, aren’t you?!!! Mag

 

[wavepicker]

Hello wavepicker!


I was hoping you’d give your perspective on our little outing… it was great that you located this opportunity to see Neely in action!

I’m in total agreement that “TIME is more important than price much more.” This is a conclusion I came to after much study into the subject. The dilemma I now face is that I am primarily pattern driven for locating and working with time, while I believe Yogi doesn’t even need the pattern. This has been bugging me for the last month or so...

So, having worked with EW structures, I found Neely’s time and pattern proportions using Fibonacci numbers intriguing as you say. The interesting thing is that I slowly moved to “Gann” increments using eights and thirds, rather than “Fib” increments (although I do use these for specific purposes) over time. As you know I work in these increments in time to forecast support/resistance in time, hence using “Fib” based increments I found were less effective (same is true for price extensions and retracements).

What is interesting is that I’m beginning to see how it may be possible to use “Fib” increments in time in concert with some of Neely’s proportions (have to do a lot of work on this and go right back in time and see if this is bourn out in reality in charts).

I was especially interested in his “bow tie” wave pattern. This is really interesting material, seeing a set of linked waves in what an ordinary person would see as a giant mess of random movements, catalogued and understood as a recurring market wave pattern phenomenon. Neely must have been truly inspired to see these complex wave structures, and be able to distill them into classifiable types.

I’m beginning to see how to better merge the Gann and EW materials... I have a pet theory that this is kind of like the physicist’s battle over wave and particle theories (or maybe quantum vs Relativity), that wave structure, and market cycles using geometric styles can in some ways be unified. Grasping Neely’s concept has inspired me to consider this in a new way (but I'm probably just reinventing the wheel that someone else discovered a long time ago but hasn’t published).

I agree, the objective is to minimise the ambiguities and subjectivity consistently and effectively in practice, as Les says, keeping it simple.


How is the delta material coming?


Warm Regards


Magdoran

Hello Mag,

Things are going good, but only early stages as yet and I can see myself spending quite a bit of time on it before absorbing, understanding,integrating it within my existing method. Αs you know I am not one to do things by halves.

I must say though, in my effort at undertsanding of time, as you know I have developed my own cyclic analysis method over the last 3-4 years. This has been invaluable to me especially with regard to quantifying elliott wave structures and even making some quite accurate trades based on pattern as well. Certainly throws the probabilities on your side.

This is great for just trading shares alone, where accuracy and precision are not paramount. However when dealing with time based derivatives it simply does not stack up consistantly.

I have therefore had to look a little deeper for improved timing capabilities.

PS. I mentioned to you we had reisitance in time after June 2nd. Not sure ATM how significant and how long , but looks like it is conforming to this expectation ATM. This was easily seen from as far as 2-3 months earlier.

Cheers

 

[tech/a]

Moggie and Waves indepth approach into Elliott Wave could well lead to new innovative use of the method,it already sounds like Waves has succeeded to some degree.
Both are passionate about the analysis--expert I think in understanding.
Certainly nothing wrong with that.

However I note on this and many of the other Elliot Wave threads that its a veiw of many that you need to have ability bordering on expert in the field of Elliott Analysis if it is to be of any practical use.

In my view from my experience you can use and implement Elliott Wave Analysis into your trading very profitably without being EXPERT in application.

It is a tool which should be in every traders toolbox. Developing a solid understanding is all that is required for successful application into a trading methodology.(Again in my view).

I'd hate to see people missing the opportunity of learning Elliott Wave Analysis on the grounds that it appears too complicated/too contradictory/and too longwinded to be bothered with.

Even basic knowledge can be very rewarding.

 

[theasxgorilla]

It is a tool which should be in every traders toolbox.

Sounds like a used car salesman line. Lets not kid one another, a trader can get along just fine without Elliott Wave analysis. I'd go the other way in fact...given too much credence Elliott Wave analysis can get in the way of many otherwise perfectly good trades and cause unnecessary emotional strain...on one hand you can follow the trend but on the other hand you might be taking a low risk/reward trade according to an Elliott Wave count.

EW doesn't fit everyones personality.

 

[wavepicker]

Hello tech,

you are absolutely correct in what you say. A basic understanding of the more common patterns, laws of alternation, core rules, distinguishing between impulses and corrections is all that one really needs.

HOWEVER, trying to force these upon all market situations and all markets at a given time is where most come unstuck. To be successful takes patience for the right setups to come along. In other words only take the high probability trades, the 80/20 trades. This might only be 40-60% of the time as for the rest FORGET THEM, or look at another market that does conform to your simple trade criteria. This might sound obvious, but it takes discipline and so few people have this.

I understand I have a habit of making my charts look quite detailed, but this is done for a purpose, that is to show that micro patterns can in fact build to the higher degree wave counts/patterns.
It also shows that you can have multiple degrees of trend coming together which is most important than just basic primary 12345 -abc analysis. A simple 12345 count can have problems sometimes, ie it might continue subdividing into something bigger, it could be in fact a more complex correction.
For example let’s say you had a count that looked like an impulse coming down from a bull market peak, 12345. So you have a 5 wave structure. Who is to say that it’s not a zigzag, i.e. an abc in a larger wave A followed by a B followed by an impulse as wave C’s often finish in impulses. What I have just described can also be perceived as 5 wave structure. But in this case it was actually a correction and the market continues mulishly and makes a new high.

In most part however I try to keep EW as simple as possible and COMBINE it with other analysis. But one thing that most don’t understand is that EW is only a small part of the whole puzzle in my opinion and has limitations as well.

Cheers

 

[tech/a]

Waves.

Makes perfect sence.---Infact common sence which as you know isnt all that common!
Pareto Principal---a must in all endeavours.

 

[tech/a]

Waves.

Any chance of popping up a chart showing your use of time alongside Elliott Wave. Much like Frankie does,just to get a feel graphically for your application of Elliott AND Time.

I'm warming towards further investigation of time coupled with Elliott. I'm sure a few like myself would be very interested.

Perhaps a stock like QBE or ZFX---whatever.
Something we can follow.Perhaps a few if thats easier. (I guess they can fail--like any analysis). Not asking for any revealling of secrets.

Much appreciated.

 

[wavepicker]

Waves.

Any chance of popping up a chart showing your use of time alongside Elliott Wave. Much like Frankie does,just to get a feel graphically for your application of Elliott AND Time.

I'm warming towards further investigation of time coupled with Elliott. I'm sure a few like myself would be very interested.

Perhaps a stock like QBE or ZFX---whatever.
Something we can follow.Perhaps a few if thats easier. (I guess they can fail--like any analysis). Not asking for any revealling of secrets.

Much appreciated.

Hello tech.

Yes I will do this in due course, in full detail. But not just yet.

I have posted on various threads some of the Cyclic Analysis routines I use togther with EW.( I even emailed some of these to you while they where under development last year).

Re: ZFX. Look at the following posts on this thread at the following link:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2971&page=28

posts #543 and #545. There is a brief description of the cycles analysis tool I use there, I have just in considerably before posting so you see only part of the analysis, but the main part of relevance to EW and ZFX is shown.


There is another on the XAO Analysis thread as well:


https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&page=24

Post #469

This time using different Cyclic Analysis routines combined with EW. Here are shown 3 different dominant cycles (whereas ZFX only had one shown) but used in a different way(they were detrended)

These approaches are excellent, and they keep you on the right side of the trend most of the time. But they lack one thing: Precision and accuracy, and one is left with analyzing the pattern in full for timing and accuracy. As such they are best and better suited for trading FPO shares where precision is not paramount. It shares(not time based instruments) it's fine.
I am now working on a different cycles approach that will be integrated with the one above for much more accurate time projections utilizing standard TIME increments and Fibonacci. See the following thread:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=161375#post161375

Post # 8 for a simple example


Cheers