Practical use of Elliott Wave analysis

[Boggo]

Regarding the XAO analysis... are you suggesting that if Wave 4 goes higher than Wave 1, "moving" wave count may actually renumber this as an ABC correction, and Wave 4 may actually be a Wave 1 (of a 5 wave impulse wave UP)?

The down leg ( W.3 ??) seems to have exceeded that theoretical parameters for an ABC correction.

(click to expand)

 

[zzaaxxss3401]

The down leg ( W.3 ??) seems to have exceeded that theoretical parameters for an ABC correction.

(click to expand)

Thanks Boggo - That was exactly what I was referring to... and I have clearly forgotten about the "rules" of the various wave lengths. Time to RTFM (Read The F#$%ing Manual) again. I'm really intrigued by all of this stuff... so hopefully one day soon it will all fall into place.

 

[tech/a]

So for me MY practical application of this analysis is.

I am looking for the Index and Stocks in it to reach 4700-4780 then correct again.
With this expectation I have

(1) Tightened those in the portfolio (I have a - Long - portfolio of stocks) I expect to be most at risk.
(2) Will be looking for weakness at the upper limits of this expected range and look to hedge by way of Short Index trades.
(3) Those stocks displaying strong resilience in the portfolio will be watched if exited for low risk re entries.

 

[professor_frink]

Will do and could do the S&P
I think I have the charty in my downloads--EOD.

If you feel like doing it, I'd be happy to follow any commentary run on the S&P500, it would be interesting to any difference in the counts between that one and the XAO/XJO.

 

[toocool]

So from my very basic EW knowlage (just from this thread) I found this one,

Any insight welcome has it completed a wave 5 down ? and now on to a watch list ?

 

[tech/a]

Your count is incorrect. (Not close)
Wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave of 1,3,5.
Find youself the basic rules in Elliott Wave before
you attempt to apply it.

 

[toocool]

.
Find youself the basic rules in Elliott Wave before
you attempt to apply it.

Noted..

 

[Boggo]

An example of a breakout and EW working together.
I bought it on the breakout and now EW is having a say in where it may end or correct.

Its in the centre of the first W.3 target again today, last time it hesitated, lets see what it does this time.

Entry and current charts below
(click to expand)

 

[skc]

JBH weekly.



This has got to be as textbook Elliott Wave chart as they come.

Perfect ABC wave 2 retracement during the GFC, wave 3 was ~1.6x wave 1. The current wave 4 retracement is bang right at 38%, couple with support from the previous high at ~$17 and a reversal weekly candle as a bonus.

Is this enough for the EW traders to enter a long position?

 

[Boggo]

JBH weekly.

Is this enough for the EW traders to enter a long position?

Giday skc.
Not for me yet, I dont like to see the 'typical wave C' box overlapping W.1 by that much, middle of that typical area is about $16.40.
$17.00 may hold but at an initial glance its going to be tight, needs a good positive upturn but then you may run into the capacity of W.5 assuming its a potential five wave event.
Where to enter ????

Just my

(click to expand)

 

[Boggo]

The interesting bit is that MTPredictor auto routine won't plot either selection as a W.4 because (I suspect) neither retrace W.3 by 38.2, the ideal minimum retracement, it still has it in a W.3

From post #21
I think MTPredictor may be right, it closed on $2.47 today.

Yesterday's chart.

(click to expand)

 

[mazzatelli]

tech
I'm interested in what your son thinks of Elliot Wave Theory and whether he subscribes to it, with his strong math/stats bg.

I don't recall if it was you, but I'm sure you mentioned using knowledge from David Aronson's book: Evidence Based Technical Analysis. David is not a strong advocate of EW, so would like to know your thoughts on his thoughts.

I'm not trying to disprove/convince/criticize etc., just like to see some of your thought process behind it.

 

[tech/a]

It wasnt I concerning David.

Kris has no opinion nor any knowledge of Elliott.

The only Elliott he knows is Gobblett--he (Kris) has a wicked sense of humor.

We are working on various aspects of trading but Elliott isnt one of them.
Its what I use in my discretionary trading and limited to considering where I am in the life of a chart---it isnt the basis of my decision but is a flag.

I will have a chat with him on the topic one day.

I do think it is logical in many respects which I will suggest for discussion over the weekend. Elliott must have also seen the "logic".--he was an Engineer.

 

[mazzatelli]

My apologies for misquoting you on Aronson.

Goblet is awesome!!!

I've seen some papers on Elliot interposed with fractal analysis, but have never seen practical application.

I see you are using it to trade a theme.
Thanks for sharing.

 

[tech/a]

So for me MY practical application of this analysis is.

I am looking for the Index and Stocks in it to reach 4700-4780 then correct again.
With this expectation I have

(1) Tightened those in the portfolio (I have a - Long - portfolio of stocks) I expect to be most at risk.
(2) Will be looking for weakness at the upper limits of this expected range and look to hedge by way of Short Index trades.
(3) Those stocks displaying strong resilience in the portfolio will be watched if exited for low risk re entries.

4790 all now set in place
Have (On Friday) set the portfolio as stated above.
Fair day so far today.

Practical application.

 

[skc]

Giday skc.
Not for me yet, I dont like to see the 'typical wave C' box overlapping W.1 by that much, middle of that typical area is about $16.40.
$17.00 may hold but at an initial glance its going to be tight, needs a good positive upturn but then you may run into the capacity of W.5 assuming its a potential five wave event.
Where to enter ????

Just my

(click to expand)

Fair call. Thanks for the response.

 

[tech/a]

Following on from this morning and the application of the analysis.
Today was a strong day for me with 3 trades out of the portfolio taking out their close trailing stops for an $800 loss.
Yet the portfolio value grew throughout the day (Unrealized profit).
Too early to call a roll over as expected but am set up for either scenario.




So what I'm hoping is people are realizing that the analysis gives you the opportunity to do far more than just take a trade.
The real money is made managing your portfolio.
Giving back as little as possible and keeping as much alive while its profitable.

 

[professor_frink]

I'd be interested in getting an update on the XAO count tech, how does it change from here?
Assuming today doesn't selloff by a couple of percent before the close, the earlier one would now be invalidated wouldn't it

 

[tech/a]

Yes it would.
Even if it fell a few % the count would be from the high.
I dont have GET at the office and will be out tonight.
Ill post it up and the expected strategy from here when I get a chance.

 

[professor_frink]

Yes it would.
Even if it fell a few % the count would be from the high.
I dont have GET at the office and will be out tonight.
Ill post it up and the expected strategy from here when I get a chance.

cheers tech, appreciate it.