Practical Elliott Wave Trading

Trader Paul · 20 March 2009

Frank D said:
Nomore,

Why don’t you base profit objectives not only at a price target but also
a Time ‘Target’

I know Nick doesn’t give a rats about Time, but if you are trading a
Weekly timeframe ie closes on Friday, then often a trend can last into Friday.

That means Price stalls at resistance or reaches your target:- Point A
and Partial cover. Then you would trade-manage the 2nd parcel based on
the closure on Friday:- Fail or Break

If Friday breaks and closes above resistance, this would normally
lead into a 2nd wave upwards and continuation higher, as resistance
has failed and has been verified by a higher timeframe close:- Breakout

Sure partial exit at a first target, but define the 2nd stage of the trend
by Friday’s close. If Friday closes above resistance there is less reason
to cover, simply run trailing stops.

Let the market tell you whether the entire trade should be exited
simply using the Price action that's occurring, and combining a price
target and then trade management using a time variable and closing price.

On most occassions price will stall and reverse and once again move
into another consolidating trading pattern. But occassionally you'll get
a stock, currency or any derivative that just continues.

And if the latter occurs you introduce your larger Secondary and Primary wave counts.

Just a thought.

..... nice work, Frank ... !~!

have a great weekend

paul

=====

johnnyg · 20 March 2009

Being a Practical Elliott Wave thread I would imagine that in the case of CBA and another that Boggo highlighted being JBH that an appropriate stop would be just below the high of Wave a or 1 because one of the main EW rules is that wave 4 can never overlap the top of Wave 1.

If prices dip below $31.20ish in CBA's case and $10.30 in JBH's case it would invalidate the count and point towards a 3 wave correction - A, B, C instead of a 5 wave impulse.

I guess its whether or not your comfortable giving back profit if it turns out to be a 3 wave correction, and if you can be happy to take profits only then see your 3 wave pattern turn into a 5 wave impulse?

Nero64 · 20 March 2009

Hi Nick,

Nice thread. I went to your chartist website and you charge $77/ per month for the chartist subscription.

That is a bit steep. Any chance of doing a deal for us ASF members.

Also on your blog link you post your current open postions sheet.

Correct me if I am wrong, but you are down -33000 (40% of equity) on some US trades. Are these long term positions being held. It is dated late Feb so you're probably in front now with the market going up 15% or so:

Kryzz · 21 March 2009

Would this be a practical short setup? or is it strictly for 3 wave counter trends? Not sure how far a wave 4 is allowed to retrace..EW novice btw.

Thanks,
Shaun.

Nick Radge · 21 March 2009

Nero64,
The account balance is $50,933 being Net Liquidation Value - top line - which is marked to market. This Model Account started with $50,000 so a gain of 1.8%.

I assume you know the extent of what my service entails to suggest $77 is too steep.

CSL has now dropped off the radar. There are minimal setups at present basis my setups style. They will return.

I will answer the DOM extension when I get some time.

Porper · 21 March 2009

Kryzz said:
Would this be a practical short setup? or is it strictly for 3 wave counter trends? Not sure how far a wave 4 is allowed to retrace..EW novice btw.

Thanks,
Shaun.

Shaun, it looks like a valid set up to me, although I am no Nick Radge.

Infact this came up on a scan of mine yesterday.The logic behind trading a,b,c set ups is because they generally offer better Risk reward, but AXA would offer a R/R of around 5 from a quick glance, very nice.It's actually a text book Elliot Wave count, not sure what your retracements are on the chart ? I'd be looking at around the 2.20 area for wave 5 to complete.

There is also high volume with closes off their highs as a confirming indicator of sellers being around.

I'd be looking at selling on a break of yesterdays low with a stop above the day before high.Trouble is as AXA is a financial stock you can't short it.

Kryzz · 22 March 2009

Porper said:
It's actually a text book Elliot Wave count, not sure what your retracements are on the chart ?

Hey porper thanks for the reply, the first level is a 25% retracement of the last move higher, i thought that would be the entry level to go short? as per Nicks first post with the CBA chart, however i'm unsure.

johnnyg · 22 March 2009

Heres a chart of UGL that may be appropriate to the thread.

johnnyg · 22 March 2009

Sorry guys, chart should read 3.5R not 4.5R.

2BAD4U · 8 April 2009

Thanks for the thread Nick.

I've got your book and haven't been too keen to trade EW's yet. But this has helped a lot. I entered into TFC a couple of days ago and wondering if anyone else agrees with the setup (ie 25% retrace).

Cheers

beamstas · 8 April 2009

2BAD4U said:
Thanks for the thread Nick.

I've got your book and haven't been too keen to trade EW's yet. But this has helped a lot. I entered into TFC a couple of days ago and wondering if anyone else agrees with the setup (ie 25% retrace).

Cheers

2BAD4U, how did you decide to start the count where you started it?
I am on a school computer so don't have access to a chart.

Looks like that could be the finsh of a larger degree 5 wave pattern coming down with an A-B-C correction

I could be entirely wrong because i can't see a graph

(If it's not totally ignore this post LOL!)

Brad

tech/a · 8 April 2009

TFC

My view
The black labelling is mine the Blue AGET's
Agets current "C" and 4 will get re labelled.

Boggo · 8 April 2009

And just to give the dudes with no method some fodder I have attached another similiar/slightly different view.

(click to enlarge)

Lachlan6 · 8 April 2009

I would suggest your wave 4 is out of proportion with the preceeding move tech/a. It could still be the case however I think the previous move lower has terminated in five waves and the ensuing upward correction is now taking place. After five waves down I would be looking at a grind higher into the $1.10 - $1.20 area. Also note the bearish divergence in the MACD with the two recent peaks suggesting short term downside looks imminent.

tech/a · 8 April 2009

Lachlan.

You could well be right.

So we both agree on a correction.
Magnitude of it is the question.

Lachlan6 · 8 April 2009

tech/a said:
Lachlan.

You could well be right.

So we both agree on a correction.
Magnitude of it is the question.

No worries tech. Let's see how price action in the stock transpires. This is one of the best and most fundamental points of EW; the characteristic of price. Even if we don't all agree on the exact count, we all know that action since late Nov last year has been corrective and we can take a lot from that.

Cheers

johnnyg · 13 April 2009

Just an update on the UGL chart I posted on 22/3/09.

Pretty self explanatory I think, prices didn't quite retrace as far I thought. A better entry would of been a buy when prices had swung 25% off the low as Nick posted in his CBA trade.

FMG looks like it could be setting itself up for a similar move. Looks like we might of completed a larger degree wave B down however the wave equality doesn't look quite right so id be inclined to wait and see if prices push lower in the coming days.

ricky · 26 April 2009

Hi all,

I'm really interested to know what traders use to scan the market for EW setups,software or manual analysis, really keen to find out quick way to scan the ASX 200-300 stocks.

Thanks
Rick

salsem · 10 May 2009

hi
mi view DJIA daily

CIAO.salsem

Boggo · 10 May 2009

Just a follow up to post #94.
It took a while but it almost got there.

(click to enlarge)

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