Practical Elliott Wave Trading

[nunthewiser]

Personally think CSL setting itself in a nice little short entry pattern could be wrong ...... not entering as yet need confirmation . but have placed on watch for now

thanks

P.S PDN may be worth a squiz with them wave counts .........amongst other forms of anyalasis

waves

 

[Nick Radge]

A one day move doesn't make a trend. No trade from me either, but still watching.

 

[IFocus]

Picking tops and bottoms seems to be frowned upon by many for some reason which I don’t understand ----- I mean if yr gona short something, short it near a top --- isn’t that the point of the exercise ---

--

There was a time when I was really clever and went after tops and bottoms mostly treated water and bled slowly not to mention the mental damage.

Market helped me to discover I wasn't that clever and so started trading trends looking for continuation patterns, not as exciting but haven't had a down year since.

 

[Cartman]

There was a time when I was really clever and went after tops and bottoms mostly treated water and bled slowly not to mention the mental damage.

Market helped me to discover I wasn't that clever and so started trading trends looking for continuation patterns, not as exciting but haven't had a down year since.

appreciate yr comment IF ---- but one mans trash is another mans treasure so to speak ---

my last 113 trades over the last 10 days --- picking tops and bottoms

Total Trades: 113

Short Positions (won %): 69 (89.86%)

Long Positions (won %): 44 (79.55%)

Profit Trades (% of total): 97 (85.84%)

Loss trades (% of total): 16 (14.16%)

results can be verified if necessary, but i have nothing to prove to anyone here ----- not trying to sell anything after all

 

[nunthewiser]

A one day move doesn't make a trend. No trade from me either, but still watching.

i am trading them .PDN long entry 3.40 . CSL short entry 33.10

i dont know what your intention was on CSL but thanks for bringing it to my attention . oh totally agree that one move does not make a trend but theres a little more than one move on each stock that does actually define one .

BHP may b e worth a look as a short entry too if your intrested , i have entered this one , dont know if its your cup of tea as yet tho , wouldnt mind your thoughts on it if you get a mo ........ or not as already in my position and viewed the entry with my own special brand of entry criteria which prolly not applicable for this thread

 

[johnnyg]

Looking threw the outstanding breakout thread I thought this chart may be useful to this thread in regards to picking tops and bottoms and as Nick puts it -

I am open to two patterns and will position myself around those patterns as they develop and as they show signs of being validated or invalidated.

First is a chart of a breakout posted on the 4/2/09 by AlterEgo -

Next is a chart of a possible EW count posted on 4/2/09 by Boggo -

Next is the current chart of DOM. I hope Boggo doesn't think i'm having a go at his analysis which i'm not, I probably would of looked at exiting around those levels on his chart myself. But I think it relates well to the posts in the thread.

 

[IFocus]

appreciate yr comment IF ---- but one mans trash is another mans treasure so to speak ---

my last 113 trades over the last 10 days --- picking tops and bottoms

Total Trades: 113

Short Positions (won %): 69 (89.86%)

Long Positions (won %): 44 (79.55%)

Profit Trades (% of total): 97 (85.84%)

Loss trades (% of total): 16 (14.16%)

results can be verified if necessary, but i have nothing to prove to anyone here ----- not trying to sell anything after all

Not questioning your integrity just stating my own experience in case it strikes a cord.

BTW there are times my win loss gets to 95% at 3RR over some months, at that point I am a Guru but long term 50% is closer to the mark

 

[weird]

Interested in seeing the thread continue as intended, that is practical EW trading. Not interested in other methods being discussed. I personally trade a system, which in normal volatility has a 33% win ratio, in extreme volatility it has a 20% win ratio ... however the outcomes over either period are the same ... volatility works both ways ... will I fill this thread with this system ... nah ... just interested in learning what Nick is teaching at the moment.

 

[Nick Radge]

113 trades in 10 days...doesn't help my golf swing or fishing time.

 

[Ashsaege]

appreciate yr comment IF ---- but one mans trash is another mans treasure so to speak ---

my last 113 trades over the last 10 days --- picking tops and bottoms

Total Trades: 113

Short Positions (won %): 69 (89.86%)

Long Positions (won %): 44 (79.55%)

Profit Trades (% of total): 97 (85.84%)

Loss trades (% of total): 16 (14.16%)

results can be verified if necessary, but i have nothing to prove to anyone here ----- not trying to sell anything after all

What about your average win/loss ratio?

 

[Boggo]

Next is the current chart of DOM. I hope Boggo doesn't think i'm having a go at his analysis which i'm not, I probably would of looked at exiting around those levels on his chart myself. But I think it relates well to the posts in the thread.

Not at all, I was just providing a bit of a heads up the current possibility at the time, ie. it was more of an area where I would be tightening stops rather than buying in.

Below is perhaps an example with JBH, is it a breakout or is it approaching expiry of this run, three different methods with two different software programs playing by three sets of individually proven methods.
Either way its a winner so we tighten the stops and be patient.

(click to expand)

 

[Cartman]

BTW there are times my win loss gets to 95% at 3RR over some months,

--- that is guru status!

What about your average win/loss ratio?

PM me if u r genuinely interested

Interested in seeing the thread continue as intended, that is practical EW trading. Not interested in other methods being discussed. ... just interested in learning what Nick is teaching at the moment.

no probs ---- i'll respect the thread and depart forthwith ---

i'll leave u with a chart to ponder from an E/W pov ----- how would u label it and how would u trade it ? ---- i took 27 trades on it 2nite -- 2 shorts still open as i type ---

 

[Nick Radge]

If you've finished discussing your illustrious trading abilities cartman, perhaps we could get back on topic because johnnyg has made an interesting point worth expanding on, indeed it may even be educational for some of us mere mortals.

Let me know when you've finished though...

 

[Porper]

Total Trades: 113

Short Positions (won %): 69 (89.86%)

Long Positions (won %): 44 (79.55%)

Profit Trades (% of total): 97 (85.84%)

Loss trades (% of total): 16 (14.16%)

results can be verified if necessary

Very impressive results Cartman.

Let's say you have a meagre win loss ratio of 2:1, that means.....................................
you are a genius

Forget Elliot wave and struggling to feed my poor children,I need to know your methodology.............Please.

 

[glenn_r]

Maybe once Cartman posts his brokers statement to validate the results (preferably in a new thread) we should nominate him for trader of the year, damn fine results there dude.

I hope people let Nick work through his EW analysis without putting up red herrings and maybe start their own threads if they feel the need to explain their method/s.

 

[beamstas]

Cart
I'll pm you my IG account name and password

You can take it from there

 

[tcoates]

If you've finished discussing your illustrious trading abilities cartman, perhaps we could get back on topic because johnnyg has made an interesting point worth expanding on, indeed it may even be educational for some of us mere mortals.

Let me know when you've finished though...

It seems the choice here is whether to use a target or not???

If you don't use the target and then use some sort of trailing stop, then you have the potential to lose profits. At this point you would kick yourself for not sticking to using a target. In either case, the end-user has to stick to their plan come what may.

In the case of DOM... is it possible the count was wrong? And, is a different count possible that would have left you in the trade until now?

Your thoughts?

Cheers,

 

[Boggo]

perhaps we could get back on topic because johnnyg has made an interesting point worth expanding on, indeed it may even be educational for some of us mere mortals.

Yes please Nick, a very good subject that johnnyg has raised and an area that I have many issues with, ie targets for R/R, stops and exits in general.

 

[nomore4s]

Cartman, we get it - you don't like EW. You have now pretty much destroyed 2 EW threads why not leave them in peace and let us poor struggling traders try and learn something. If you want to tell everyone how good you are and how much better your methods are start your own thread or blog or something.

It seems the choice here is whether to use a target or not???

If you don't use the target and then use some sort of trailing stop, then you have the potential to lose profits. At this point you would kick yourself for not sticking to using a target. In either case, the end-user has to stick to their plan come what may.

This is something I've struggled with for a while - exits. I've come to the conclusion now that I'm never going to be 100% happy with them.
I now have an exit strategy based on the type of trade - ie a swing trade will either have a profit target for a partial or full exit at resistance or a very tight trailing stop, a trend trade will obviously have a wider stop. Sometimes I miss out on extra profits on swing trades and sometimes I give back some profit on trend trades but this is part of trading.
While I don't use EW this is where I think methods like EW can come in handy giving some guide to possible outcomes of the price action and levels where you know you are wrong and it is time to exit.

 

[Frank D]

Nomore,

Why don’t you base profit objectives not only at a price target but also
a Time ‘Target’

I know Nick doesn’t give a rats about Time, but if you are trading a
Weekly timeframe ie closes on Friday, then often a trend can last into Friday.

That means Price stalls at resistance or reaches your target:- Point A
and Partial cover. Then you would trade-manage the 2nd parcel based on
the closure on Friday:- Fail or Break

If Friday breaks and closes above resistance, this would normally
lead into a 2nd wave upwards and continuation higher, as resistance
has failed and has been verified by a higher timeframe close:- Breakout

Sure partial exit at a first target, but define the 2nd stage of the trend
by Friday’s close. If Friday closes above resistance there is less reason
to cover, simply run trailing stops.

Let the market tell you whether the entire trade should be exited
simply using the Price action that's occurring, and combining a price
target and then trade management using a time variable and closing price.

On most occassions price will stall and reverse and once again move
into another consolidating trading pattern. But occassionally you'll get
a stock, currency or any derivative that just continues.

And if the latter occurs you introduce your larger Secondary and Primary wave counts.

Just a thought.