Practical Elliott Wave Trading

[Cartman]

There's a big difference between offering constructive help and asking relevant questions v's thread sabotage eg waffling on for the 3rd+ time about why EW doesn't work. There are obvious trolls who simply undermine the 'goodness' of threads in the forum for their own good. I believe many (including the trolls) have great systems and/or strategies that people can benefit from - but their actions in these discussions rate them poorly as individuals.

howdy Oz ---- i think what has probably blown this all out of proportion, is not the actual difference in viewpoints, but the threads these viewpoints are being aired in

u will have noticed i had not posted on this thread or the other E/W thread since the other day cause i knew i was starting to pees people off a bit -----
to be honest, i didnt realize that E/W was such a contentious issue between users and non users until after id had a little dig --- now i know Cheers.

 

[potato]

cartman: i like lamingtons...

 

[Cartman]

cartman: i like lamingtons...

what colour ?

ps i know when i'm beaten lol ----

 

[MichaelD]

In stronger trending environments I would not use a target as in this example.

Nick,

If this thread isn't mortally wounded...

I'm genuinely interested in why you use profit targets. My personal experience (backtesting + walk-forward + actual trading) over multiple time frames from daily to weekly has invariably shown me that the use of a profit target always adversely affects overall system expectancy. It gives you a greater % win rate, but cuts the profits from the really big outliers off at the knees. I have always regretted implementing profit targets even though initially they seemed to make systems easier to trade.

 

[Nick Radge]

MichaelD,
I hate using profits targets, but have been doing so since November in these conditions mainly for short side trades. I will be quick to back them off if the daily and weekly trends confirm.

I agree 100% with everything you say.

Nick

 

[Nick Radge]

CBA came within 30c of its target and closed weak. I have stressed to subscribers on many occasions that we need to see wave-iii prove itself by bolting through the wave equality level. If it reverses at it there is scope that we're seeing a 3 wave correction and not a 5-wave impulse.

We have a saying from the trading floor, "don't be a dick for a tick" meaning the last 30c is not worth being obsessed about. If the US dips tonight I would be out of CBA and looking for other opportunities.z

WOR looks interesting.




This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

 

[tech/a]

Actually closed all trades tonight.
Those 2 were amongst them.

 

[Bobby]

We have a saying from the trading floor, "don't be a dick for a tick" meaning the last 30c is not worth being obsessed about. If the US dips tonight I would be out of CBA and looking for other opportunities.z

Nick ,
How about a chart to show the next count Please .

 

[Nick Radge]

There is no change to the count Bobby. It has not been invalidated. You want to be a trader or a theorist?

 

[Bobby]

There is no change to the count Bobby. It has not been invalidated. You want to be a trader or a theorist?

Thanks for the quick reply , nice answer
As for if I'm a trader or a theorist , exoteric !

:

 

[Cartman]

There is no change to the count Bobby. It has not been invalidated. You want to be a trader or a theorist?

hi Nick ---- this question is not meant to be either leading or confrontational ---- just curious ---- the run up on CBA has been (on a relative time scale) --- 'exponential' ----------- is the reason y u r considering closing the trade based more on the current market conditions (uncertainty) or from an E/W pov?? --- Cheers ---

ps -- from a standard T/A pov, the chart says the exponential run up has been fast, and even though we look like going into retrace mode, there is 'technically' no reason to shut the trade down ---

for the record --- what is yr trailing stop loss at this point? ----- mine would be $32.25 ------

also for the record I am with Tech and would have closed the trade down at $32.64 --- today ---- u can always re-enter !

Just interested, and not trying to create 'poop' at all --- Cheers.

 

[tech/a]

Cartman

Nick is correct.
He is showing practical Elliott Wave Trading.

I closed my trades today from my own analysis.
Right or wrong.
WOR SUN and CBA all displayed similar technical signals.

It was in appropriate to mention this in this thread.
Apologies.

 

[beamstas]

for the record --- what is yr trailing stop loss at this point? ----- mine would be $32.25

Cartman buddy

Would you mind explaining how you came about $32.25?

I'd probably be close to $31.40. That being said im not actually in the trade myself.

Though i'd reassess tomorrow to see if CBA still had anything left. A weak close like this occured right before the top of wave 1

 

[Cartman]

Cartman

Nick is correct.
He is showing practical Elliott Wave Trading.

I closed my trades today from my own analysis.
Right or wrong.
WOR SUN and CBA all displayed similar technical signals.

It was in appropriate to mention this in this thread.
Apologies.

Tech --- i actually agree with u shutting the trades down ---- taking a profit and not holding o/night in the current climate makes a lot of sense to me, considering that CBA has had an exponential rise and today had a conspicuous drop from its late Nov- early Dec highs -----

i'm a great believer in taking the 'meat' out of a trade ---- u have done that --- and sleep well 2nite ---- if it goes up another 2% tomorrow who cares ----- just curious on the E/W pov at this point of the trade (no ulterior motives at all in my questions !!)

ps with what u've made ---- i assume its yr shout at the local ---- i cant make it to Adelaide, but happy for u to post me a carton of Carlton Cold !!

 

[Cartman]

Cartman buddy

Would you mind explaining how you came about $32.25?

I'd probably be close to $31.40. That being said im not actually in the trade myself.

Though i'd reassess tomorrow to see if CBA still had anything left. A weak close like this occured right before the top of wave 1

gidday Brad ------ only had a loose eye ball on my initial post, but even after a closer look it is pretty close to the trailor mark for me (prob closer to a little over $32 ++ ---- sue me if u like lol --- )

-- better to run yr trailors close and not give back too much profit once they are in + territory methinks ----

Logic ----- 50% zone of the last high volume low relative to the previous high volume low --------- this also corresponds to the area just under the long term ( for me -- 12 hour) MA ----- confluence of inputs -----

totally discretionary for me, but technically looks sound also ----

personally, i would expect a slight retrace from CBA over the next day or so, followed by a further high b4 another serious fall, but that is all assumption, and to be verified by Momentum ---- the only true indicator which actually leads price action !!!!

ps bear in mind i am an idiot lol -----

 

[Nick Radge]

The question is whether or not CBA has completed a 3-wave move, which is a true corrective move, or whether it will continue on as a 5-wave impulse. The answer to that question will be how price reacts right at this wave equality level.

If it reverses, chances are that we've completed a 3-wave correction, or the first part of a larger correction. In both those situations there is no need to hold a long position.

Alternately, if price runs straight through this wave equality level without hesitation then we're being told its a 5-wave impulse and that more upside, including a wave-iv and -v, will be delivered.

The point here is that I am not 'forecasting' what the future holds. I am open to two patterns and will position myself around those patterns as they develop and as they show signs of being validated or invalidated. I come from a trend following so should I run a trailing stop it would be a fairway behind. background.





This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

 

[Nick Radge]

Momentum ---- the only true indicator which actually leads price action

Could you explain this?

 

[wavepicker]

I agree with Nick here. Given the EW possibilities, it is practical to take profits here or at least PARTIAL profits. Even if this current wave is only the first wavelet of an even larger 3rd wave it will have to correct.

In time, if Price Action layers @ approximately the high of Wave A or even slightly above it, then the market maybe in a position to move higher. Also key is the type of pattern in the next decline i.e. a 3 wave corrective pattern or overlapping more complex one as opposed to a clear impulse.


Cheers

 

[Cartman]

The question is whether or not CBA has completed a 3-wave move, which is a true corrective move, or whether it will continue on as a 5-wave impulse. The answer to that question will be how price reacts right at this wave equality level.

If it reverses, chances are that we've completed a 3-wave correction, or the first part of a larger correction. In both those situations there is no need to hold a long position.

Alternately, if price runs straight through this wave equality level without hesitation then we're being told its a 5-wave impulse and that more upside, including a wave-iv and -v, will be delivered.

The point here is that I am not 'forecasting' what the future holds. I am open to two patterns and will position myself around those patterns as they develop and as they show signs of being validated or invalidated. I come from a trend following so should I run a trailing stop it would be a fairway behind.

makes sense thank u --- only difference is id run my trailing stop tight at this point

I agree with Nick here. Given the EW possibilities, it is practical to take profits here or at least PARTIAL profits. Even if this current wave is only the first wavelet of an even larger 3rd wave it will have to correct.

agree



Nick, re the Momentum ---- will post something later today -----

 

[Cartman]

Could you explain this?

Nick, I don’t want to get into a useless debate over whether Momentum is seen as a lagging indicator etc etc ----- when I stated E/W was a lagging indicator it raised some ire in you which was not my intention, ---- I suspect we wont agree re Momentum either ---

I cant state anything new that u don’t already know about indicators --- its basically how a trader uses them that may or may not give him an advantage

However, just for the point of the exercise, can I make an analogy for the punters who may be interested ----

If we imagine Momentum being represented as a motor vehicle ---- it doesn’t get to top speed without starting slowly ---- changing gears --- and accelerating ----- a MV also travels pretty steadily along a flat road, but going down or up hills creates either a gain or loss of momentum ----

on a chart, the gains/losses in momentum patterns can become very obvious (im speaking FX mainly ) ---- price action can often appear dormant, but the position of that price relative to the position and length of the current Momentum cycle (size of the hill !!) ---- and the current cycle’s relative position to the preceding cycles (size of the mountain !!) can be as obvious as all crap ---

Whether punters use straight Momentum or Stochastics, or a combination of MACD etc etc, it really doesn’t matter ----- its more about pattern recognition --- and being able to front run those patterns for the most effect ----- combining price pattern recognition with Momentum pattern recognition is a pretty robust tool

My point that Momentum leads price is based on picking cycle reversals ---- Divergence on Momentum is probably the best indicator for picking that up early (short of reading the DOM like TH and Mirc do , but as I said im talking FX ---- different beast !!)

Picking tops and bottoms seems to be frowned upon by many for some reason which I don’t understand ----- I mean if yr gona short something, short it near a top --- isn’t that the point of the exercise ---

PS --- I trade short time frames so all of the above may be meaningless to someone who trades differently.

Enuff rambling ------ Cheers.

(ps if this post is considered off topic, no prob with me if its moved to somewhere more appropriate) ------ i heard u say "the bin" Tech lol --