PEM - Perilya Limited

[reece55]

Ah, crap, my wave 4 overlaps wave 1 for two days, only by 9 cents or like 2.5%!!!!!......

Any EW experts out there (Nick, Kauri, Wavepicker, etc.), I know that they say that only leveraged instruments are allowed to overlap, but there is no way the count is valid???? What a pain in the ****, because it looked so clean....

Cheers
Reece

 

[countryboy]

PEM on boardroom radio today. Production is getting back to where they want and with Flinders ranges project about to kick off forecasts should be good for 2008. Pinacles mine some 10k out of town-Perilya should have a look at this.Good M & A prospect with a number of efficiencies that could be made due to its location.

 

[countryboy]

JV /maybe merger .....my source had too much too drink so I will suss out some more will be announced some time soon.Shares in the other company will be worth more. Countryboy will do some more wining and dining to find out what is going on....and of course buy shares in this company before he tells anyone else but ASF has been told first !!!

 

[rustaman]

JV /maybe merger .....my source had too much too drink so I will suss out some more will be announced some time soon.Shares in the other company will be worth more. Countryboy will do some more wining and dining to find out what is going on....and of course buy shares in this company before he tells anyone else but ASF has been told first !!!

Seems like your cousin "bushkid" got to blather first on HC at 00.08am.

Wine and dine on boyo.

 

[Tye]

Pem is starting to bang it head around $5. Fair bit of resistance here. With zinc rising to 3-month highs a break above $5 may see perilya going for a nice move. also zinc stockpiles are falling quite fast. This also helps. Cant wait for the break (if so)

 

[Tye]

not looking to shabbby up 10c in a falling market. This is always a good sign of continuing strength.

 

[countryboy]

Sydney - Thursday - July 19: (RWE Australian Business News) -
Perilya Ltd (ASXEM) has reported full-year production from Broken Hill of 92,100 tonnes of zinc and 60,500 tonnes of lead. Increased June quarter production of 22,000 tonnes zinc and 14,500 tonnes lead, coupled with higher lead prices, resulted in net cash operating costs of US58c/lb, 60pc lower than the previous quarter. Cash operating margin of US85c/lb zinc was comparable to that achieved in the first half of 2006/07. The fifth anniversary of Perilya's ownership of the Broken Hill mine was marked on June 1. Since acquisition, the operation has produced 642,000 tonnes of zinc, 298,000 tonnes of lead and 8.6 million ounces of silver. During this period, the ore reserve has been broadly maintained. At Flinders, open-pit mining operations at Beltana continue ahead of schedule and under budget. A total of 10,544 tonnes of high-grade ore at an average grade of 33.9 per cent zinc was mined during the quarter. Resource drilling at Reliance has returned "excellent" results, including 36 metres at 31.8pc zinc from 58 metres. The process of obtaining development approvals has commenced for the Reliance, Moolooloo, Aristotle and Aroona2 deposits, located within 15 kilometres of the Beltana operation.

the lower you go at BH you tend to pick up more lead- according to some old miners.One of the middle levels will be mined out this year and so the focus will be a bit deeper.Its all super quality ore mind you.

For my money PEM will need a substantial aquisition to take it foward in the next 10 yrs. Worth watching

 

[Tye]

30% fall in 3 weeks. This was looking great 3 weeks ago. Does anyone think that this can ever be recovered, because a belting like that is never good for investors and traders. I heard it was cheap at over $5 now its under $4. This share is so volitile.

 

[UMike]

Must say I had a bit of a nibble on it today.
.

Did about $24 mil in trade throughout the day though.

 

[countryboy]

from todays australian:

Perilya (PEM) $3.77Font Size: Decrease Increase Print Page: Print Tim Boreham | September 11, 2007
HAVING twice given the nod to the Broken Hill base metals producer and twice been chastened, Criterion is loath to give Perilya the benefit of the doubt.

Yet Perilya's numbers look compelling. Despite a sharp retraction last week, lead prices have still doubled this year while zinc continues to be in tight supply. At the same time, Perilya is emerging from the production hiccups stemming from the death of a worker in January's underground accident.

In the wake of the tragedy, 2007 production slid dramatically to 92,800 tonnes of zinc and 61,000 tonnes of lead, from the previous year's 144,000 tonnes and 75,000 tonnes respectively. The lower production affected per-tonne costs, as did the use of lower-grade ore. The buoyant prices saw Perilya post a "record" $82.5 million for the year to June 30, 2007 (take out asset sales and the result was less glossy).

Perilya forecasts current-year output of 120,000-140,000 tonnes of zinc and 70,000-80,000 tonnes of lead. There's also 28,000 tonnes of 35 per cent grade ore stockpiled at the Flinders Zinc (Beltana) project in South Australia, expected to be sold in the December quarter.

Broker Patersons notes that Broken Hill grades should improve as Perilya moves to higher-grade stopes.

An unabashed fan of the stock, Patersons forecasts a current-year net result of $119 million and earnings per share of 67.1c, which puts the stock on a miserly PE ratio of 5.6 times. This assumes an average zinc price of $US1.14 a pound, compared with the current $US1.28/lb.

Goldman Sachs JB Were's Perilya watchers are more grudging, noting in part that Perilya paid a 1c dividend when the firm expected 10c. Presumably Perilya -- sitting on cash reserves of $173 million -- is eyeing an acquisition.

As with Zinifex's Century mine, Broken Hill has a short (six-year) mine life. Perilya is moving away from its flagship Broken Hill through the Beltana project, which is "on schedule and below budget".

Criterion rated Perilya a buy at $5.37 on January 31 and then again at $4.23 on February 8. Laughable calls, perhaps, but if Perilya's production recovers, the stock looks laughably cheap.

For a third time we say buy, but any more hiccups over the next year and it's bye-bye.

 

[Ken]

PEM doesnt seem to have recovered as much as MMX or MCR or MIS from its lows.

Any ideas why?


I wanted to pick some up after I heard the Patersons report online.

But I am just going to wait and see, am riding the financials at the moment.

 

[michael_selway]

PEM doesnt seem to have recovered as much as MMX or MCR or MIS from its lows.

Any ideas why?


I wanted to pick some up after I heard the Patersons report online.

But I am just going to wait and see, am riding the financials at the moment.

Well zinc price is not that hot as yet, plus they do have a limited 6 year mine life.

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 43.1 66.0 64.8 50.3
DPS 11.0 17.0 16.0 12.3

thx

MS

 

[dj_420]

There are a lot of concerns though this one is a nice bluechip that has not recovered well since correction.

I bought in yesterday at 4.05 on open, I liked the look of this one, trading on a PE of 6 and expected earnings upgrades will put this one back in favour IMO.

The short mine life is a concern, though PEM are well cashed up and rumoured to be on the prowl.

 

[mishu]

PEM - Perilya holding up well

With the market like it is today I notice PEM is holding up well. Even flat at one stage. Also I note that AMP increased its holding to 5 percent in yesterday's notices. The company looks strong and safe with its ongoing operational mines, hedged dollar, hedged lead prices and money to expand. Its hedged for a dollar above 83 cents.

There is some discussion about whether it might be a takeover target itself on other forums. Having good assets makes that more likely but they also have a lot of cash on hand which they intend to use to expand. They are evidently in talks about a joint operation with another company for a mine near the Broken Hill region.

 

[michael_selway]

Re: PEM - Perilya holding up well

With the market like it is today I notice PEM is holding up well. Even flat at one stage. Also I note that AMP increased its holding to 5 percent in yesterday's notices. The company looks strong and safe with its ongoing operational mines, hedged dollar, hedged lead prices and money to expand. Its hedged for a dollar above 83 cents.

There is some discussion about whether it might be a takeover target itself on other forums. Having good assets makes that more likely but they also have a lot of cash on hand which they intend to use to expand. They are evidently in talks about a joint operation with another company for a mine near the Broken Hill region.

Well its not bad although 2008

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 43.1 61.4 69.7 42.8
DPS 11.0 15.9 16.6 12.6

thx

MS

 

[mishu]

Re: PEM - Perilya holding up well

Well its not bad although 2008

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 43.1 61.4 69.7 42.8
DPS 11.0 15.9 16.6 12.6

thx

MS

Thanks for that info Michael. I don't recall seeing it before. Where was it from? Do you like the share? It looks good again today - its up today when the market is down.

 

[UMike]

It's really diving now

An almost 1 grand profit is now more than negative 1 grand.

Can this one turn around?

 

[UMike]

LOL

Lost 3% before going back to $3.67.

This share is crazier than KCN :lol:

Hopefully this recovery continues.

 

[mishu]

Yeah it is volatile. That can be good as well as bad. It can mean a faster rise up again. My partner made significant gains on this stock earlier this year. He bought back in recently and is happy to hold.

 

[michael_selway]

Yeah it is volatile. That can be good as well as bad. It can mean a faster rise up again. My partner made significant gains on this stock earlier this year. He bought back in recently and is happy to hold.

Hi Mishu, why are you guys buying it? doesnt it have a relatively short mine life i.e. 6 years about?

thx

MS