PEM - Perilya Limited

[Ann]

Re: PEM a lot of volume the last couple of days

Hi brerwallabi

I just looked at your attachment.....You show it travelling in a ranging channel. Now potentially creating an upper point of resistance. Your chart re-inforces that the price is due for a retrace right now. That means down folks.

I am really not trying to hastle you brerwallabi, just say what I see.

 

[brerwallabi]

Re: PEM a lot of volume the last couple of days

Ann, in no way are you hassling???? me. I always respect someone else's opinion, this is a site where we come to learn from each other and share experiences. I will continue to hold PEM in the expectation that it reaches $1.20, 500k of shares were issued prior to Xmas, staff incentives at .80c & .90c which have an impact as I guess a few employees seek some money for holiday period.
I hope your interpretation is wrong (no offence meant).
PEM as had a run this time of year for the last couple of years and I also can not see why it won't again. Other factors in its favour some increasing demand for lead and a 10% increase in lead rices last quarter also a 30% increase in zinc in the last quarter and we all know about gold. A finger in the pie in Strike Oil which has jumped from 12c to 18c very suddenly - some things are looking good in my opinion.
Please do not rely on technical analysis solely, although I do sometimes - my estimation on PEM is governed by my own inevstigations and judgements. I hold but I am never last of a sinking ship.

 

[Ann]

Re: PEM a lot of volume the last couple of days

I hope your interpretation is wrong (no offence meant).

So do I brerwallabi, whenever I see a negative in a chart, I always hope I have got it wrong. If I have got it right, that will mean someone may lose money...that thought always saddens me.

 

[brerwallabi]

Re: PEM a lot of volume the last couple of days

The thought of losing money also saddens me but I fully expect not be successful all of the time, I do lose but it is all part of the strategy and if I lose it will be triggered by a stop/loss and it would not dampen my enthusiasm for trading PEM as it is likely to continue in the channel if it retraces. My head tells me this is going to go ahead. We shall soon know.

 

[Ann]

Re: PEM a lot of volume the last couple of days

Please let me be wrong!

 

[brerwallabi]

Re: PEM a lot of volume the last couple of days

Ann that Wesfarmers chart you posted on Wesfarmers thread looks like its identical to PEM over the last few months, not hassling you lol.

 

[Ann]

Re: PEM a lot of volume the last couple of days

Ann that Wesfarmers chart you posted on Wesfarmers thread looks like its identical to PEM over the last few months, not hassling you lol.

You could never be a hassle to me brerwallabi,

The thing about charting that I love is its infinite possibilities of interpretation...

You gave me a fright brerwallabi, I thought I had put the wrong chart in for WES, it was late.

I see what you mean....let's put up another chart for PEM shall we?

 

[brisvegas]

Re: PEM a lot of volume the last couple of days

some serious upgrade to 06 earnings projections in last week . i'd say some serious rerating of PEM likely by covering brokers likely when the holiday season over next week . certainly one for my watchlist and i note it is CMC included at 10% margin . that 1.20 resistance likely to be tested in not too distant future judging by fundementals . note that near 80 mill cash on hand and 10 mill invested in equities on a market cap of 180 mill



FORECAST EARNINGS Last Analyst Update
23 December, 2005
EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-06 18.7 5.3 --
Year Ending 30-06-07 21.2 4.7 13.4%

.............. pete

 

[brisvegas]

Re: PEM a lot of volume the last couple of days

Have been reading up on zinc and have discovered some interesting facts regarding supply/demand and production deficits going forwards . if this all is true the future looks good for zinc producers

have a read of this article

http://www.yukonzinc.com/zincMarkets.htm

................. pete

 

[brisvegas]

Re: PEM a lot of volume the last couple of days

JP Morgan suggest zinc is the metal to rise in 06


J.P. Morgan is bullish on zinc

Purchasing December 27, 2005


Poor mine production growth in 2005 has left zinc smelters starved of concentrate, which has led to a deficit of refined metal, which has led to world prices 11% ahead of forecast. Revised forecasts for 2006 show another 9-10% increase.


Zinc is the only base metal in which J.P. Morgan Securities is forecasting a higher 2006 price average than the expected 2005 average. A constrained mine-concentrate supply situation, in combination with ongoing strong levels of demand for refined zinc by China, has left the 2005 market with an estimated deficit of 338,000 metric tons. Upshot: The 2005 price on the London Metal Exchange average annual price has risen to 63 ¢/lb from 48 ¢ in 2004. For 2006, a 201,000 metric ton deficit is projected. So, analyst Jon Bergtheil at J.P. Morgan’s nonferrous desk in London has raised the brokerage’s 2006 LME zinc price forecast to 67 ¢. While global growth for zinc metal is expected to rise 3.8% in 2006, he expects China’s demand to remain above a 10% growth rate of the past three years. This will maintain the deficit, Bergtheil says. "The expected deficit takes the world inventory level from the current levels of 6.5 weeks to a forecast 4.9 weeks by the end of 2006."

 

[brerwallabi]

Re: PEM a lot of volume the last couple of days

Bris, a lot of good points on zinc in that link, and certainly Australian zinc companies reflect the ongoing demand and coming deficits in the current prices

ZFX about to test $7.00 again new highs, I really missed the boat on this one

KZL wow hit $2.30 new high earlier this morning - holding

PEM back up to $0.99 this could test $1.20 and possibly highs of previous year and test $1.40 if it gets through $1.20 - holding

CBH problems down to $0.20 no production atm but was upto .35cps before disaster hit mine tried to pick up at 16cps but damn did not fall that low, price will slowly come back to 30's but might take 12 months - no holding

2006 should be a good year for zinc imo

 

[Ann]

Re: PEM a lot of volume the last couple of days

Hi Brerwallabi,

Did you see this article?

ZL hikes zinc, lead prices

Primary zinc prices raised 5% to Rs 97,500 a tonne, lead by Rs 400 a tonne
Dilip Kumar Jha / Mumbai December 03, 2005
Hindustan Zinc, the largest domestic zinc producer, has on Thursday hiked prices of primary zinc (99.5 per cent purity, ex-Debari/ex-Chanderia) by more than 5 per cent to Rs 97,500 per tonne, from Rs 92,600 per tonne (last revision effective November 16).

Price of high-grade zinc, with 99.5 per cent purity, has been raised to Rs 97,300 per tonne against Rs 92,400 per tonne. With the current revision, prime western zinc (98.5 per cent) shot up to Rs 95,500 per tonne vis-a-vis Rs 90,600 per tonne.

Ex-Vizag and ex-other depot prices differ up to Rs 2,000 based on the order size and the location. Hindustan Zinc also raised lead prices, by only Rs 400 per tonne to Rs 56,400 per tonne from Rs 56,000 per tonne (as per the previous revision).

Domestic zinc leader Hindustan Zinc revises selling prices fortnightly based on the movement of zinc prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The company has a market share of about 85 per cent, while Binanis shares about 5 per cent and the rest by the secondary producers.

Balance of article...

http://www.business-standard.com/sm...mnu6&leftindx=6

Edit. Sorry that link doesn't seem to work. This is another link to Zinc.
Moderators...please feel free to squish this post...it is a link to another forum.

http://www.shares.com.au/forum/showthread.php?threadid=597

 

[brerwallabi]

Re: PEM a lot of volume the last couple of days

Just found this.
"BEIJING: China will reduce its tax rebate on exports of some metals and products to 5 per cent, including zinc, tin and antimony, from January 1, 2006, the Ministry of Finance said yesterday.

The export tax rebate would be reduced for magnesium, tungsten, tin, zinc and antimony as well as for related products and for scrap tin, zinc and antimony, it said in a statement on its website.

It did not say what the current rebate was."

Why rebate when the price is going through the roof obviously the Chinese see the zinc price going further.

 

[saichuen]

Re: PEM a lot of volume the last couple of days

this one is looking good and moving up to test the $1.40 resistance level.

 

[brerwallabi]

Re: PEM a lot of volume the last couple of days

It might fly right through $1.40 without stopping, zinc up higher again and now past $US0.90 per lb, it should be PEM's best ever 6 months profit, remember there is some gold to take into account as well, its Daisy - Milano operation and Strike Oil which is 20% owned by PEM looks like being a winner as well for them.

 

[Ann]

Re: PEM a lot of volume the last couple of days

You have said it all Brerwallabi

...and a picture of it flying....in case someone doesn't chart.

 

[carpets]

Re: PEM a lot of volume the last couple of days

this one is looking good and moving up to test the $1.40 resistance level.

Gone well above the resistance level now... A high today of 1.63, who would've thought?
If you look at market depth, this afternoon there where only 2 sellers, one at 1.70 and one at about 1.83, any takers?

 

[Ann]

Re: PEM a lot of volume the last couple of days

That's absolutely amazing Carpets

Only two people selling with this quantity of trades for today after 12pm


PEM Perilya Limited FPO
Total Trades Total Volume Last Trade V.W.A.P*
336 2,175,737 163 153.29
* Volume Weighted Average Price
Trade
Number (s) Time Last Traded Price Volume Change Value Number
of Trades
330 - 336 4:15:55 pm 163 22,425 3 $36,553 7
325 - 329 3:59:07 pm 160 75,000 1 $120,000 5
321 - 324 3:58:56 pm 159 41,600 0.5 $66,144 4
320 3:58:20 pm 158.5 91 0.5 $144 1
318 - 319 3:56:39 pm 159 15,000 1 $23,850 2
316 - 317 3:55:41 pm 158 5,500 0.5 $8,690 2
315 3:54:31 pm 157.5 486 0.5 $765 1
310 - 314 3:53:01 pm 158 20,000 0.5 $31,600 5
308 - 309 3:49:43 pm 157.5 2,000 0.5 $3,150 2
307 3:48:18 pm 157 500 0.5 $785 1
305 - 306 3:48:16 pm 157.5 9,600 0.5 $15,120 2
304 3:48:03 pm 158 10,000 0.5 $15,800 1
293 - 303 3:47:52 pm 157.5 30,500 0.5 $48,038 11
290 - 292 3:37:18 pm 157 25,100 0.5 $39,407 3
285 - 289 3:27:36 pm 156.5 13,920 0.5 $21,785 5
283 - 284 3:24:32 pm 157 9,980 0.5 $15,669 2
278 - 282 3:22:37 pm 157.5 16,500 0.5 $25,988 5
274 - 277 3:16:46 pm 157 30,020 0.5 $47,131 4
272 - 273 3:08:17 pm 156.5 10,461 0.5 $16,371 2
264 - 271 3:05:38 pm 156 30,649 0.5 $47,812 8
259 - 263 2:57:56 pm 155.5 96,000 0.5 $149,280 5
249 - 258 2:51:35 pm 155 180,000 0.5 $279,000 10
247 - 248 2:42:21 pm 155.5 45,000 0.5 $69,975 2
243 - 246 2:41:31 pm 155 56,650 0.5 $87,808 4
239 - 242 2:39:17 pm 155.5 17,000 0.5 $26,435 4
231 - 238 2:32:03 pm 155 81,038 3 $125,609 8
230 2:27:32 pm 152 316 2.5 $480 1
226 - 229 2:27:32 pm 154.5 41,699 1.5 $64,425 4
218 - 225 2:20:12 pm 153 38,301 1.5 $58,601 8
213 - 217 2:09:46 pm 154.5 47,985 0.5 $74,137 5
210 - 212 1:50:10 pm 155 6,550 0.5 $10,153 3
207 - 209 1:49:35 pm 154.5 3,966 0.5 $6,127 3
201 - 206 1:37:34 pm 154 13,640 0.5 $21,006 6
198 - 200 1:21:26 pm 154.5 6,500 0.5 $10,043 3
197 1:13:14 pm 154 2,576 1 $3,967 1
196 1:06:18 pm 153 600 0.5 $918 1
195 12:59:20 pm 152.5 1,000 0.5 $1,525 1
194 12:59:20 pm 153 1,000 1 $1,530 1
191 - 193 12:48:47 pm 154 37,424 0.5 $57,633 3
190 12:48:47 pm 154.5 10,000 0.5 $15,450 1
186 - 189 12:32:07 pm 155 13,000 1 $20,150 4
184 - 185 12:27:24 pm 154 20,349 1 $31,337 2
164 - 183 12:18:05 pm 155 78,287 0.5 $121,345 20

 

[brerwallabi]

Re: PEM a lot of volume the last couple of days

Well they didn't blame me for their speeding ticket today, I have been trying to work out the performance of PEM, the expected profitabiilty and its damn hard with a moving dollar and the price of zinc escalating. I had hoping about 1.40 to 1.50 on PEM I am still holding I think there could be further upside seeing also some analysts are now saying they could dispose of Daisy Milano and that would certainly add a fair bit of cash to their balance sheet, some interesting days ahead. I wish I could find a few more of these, a Corolla to a Ferrari in days and still no stopping it.

 

[brerwallabi]

Geez this is going through the roof $0.98 to $2.07 in a month, its going to be hard to better this and we are only 4 weeks into the new year. Zinc is still increasing in price PEM's next six months wil be even better.