PANIC!!!!! (Strategies for those long)

[greggy]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I spoke with a number of experienced traders and novices today. All the novices said that they were going to sell today to get out whilst the experienced ones viewed today as being a healthy correction and a day of opportunity for buying certain stocks that have fallen too much (e.g. WMT at 12c, HCY at 1.5c and KOR at 50c).
It will be interesting to see who's right. My money is on the experienced ones. The novices seemed to be reacting on a emotional basis, yet if it wasn't for such a bad day they may well have held on.
DYOR

 

[Magdoran]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Ouch! CFD stop loss useless. Just gets you out at the first price of the day, which in this case was the lowest price.

Didn't use guaranteed stop loss which can only be set at 5% below prevailing price anyway.

Need to lick wounds and figure out how to prevent this in future. Maybe safer to stick to ordinary share trading and away from these CFDs.

Have a read of my comments on CFDs in "The idiots way to options riches" post 12 for some ideas...

Mag

 

[nomore4s]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

lol, even little Johnny is in on the act now, telling people not to panic & the economy is still strong.

 

[merec]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Well with a few years of trading(investing) under my belt and remembering that when i started interest rates were 15-18 % and the Bonds and Skases were just starting, a 3% hic-up is pointless.
Just means it's time to go fishing.(literally)

 

[PureCoco]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

International Business News BBC - Shanghai down 9% with a 3% retrace at the end of trade.

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

If this does turn into a major fall then that will provide the perfect cover for central banks to do what they do best - inflate.

I've been thinking for quite some time that we'll see some sort of financial "accident" and that will be followed by central banks flooding the world with liquidity once again.

Accident? The US mortgage lenders is on track to qualify for that one but that doesn't mean the stock market can't join in too.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

International Business News BBC - Shanghai down 9% with a 3% retrace at the end of trade.

Yesterday's news,Todays is nicer on the eye.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

International Business News BBC - Shanghai down 9% with a 3% retrace at the end of trade.

The same market appreciated 120%ish last year...and was up 15% for the year up until the 9% drop.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

If you look at any nations during early industrialisation market appreciation rates are substantial.....dose in china's population to the mix and the rapid availability of commodities in this day and age............and bingo the perfect ingredients for a rocket propelled tin pot index!.

This one has fuel left to burn aplenty, just going to take the analysts a while to get their head around it all, cause the dynamics of such a market they have never seen before.

 

[tech/a]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I expected Volume to be very high today but noticed that it was only really moderate.
To me this indicates many held their positions,particularly the bigger holders.

If so
(1) They will either dump on a decent rally.
OR
(2) Buy when percieved to be bargain basement.(moderately)
AND
(3) Then in the future sell off at better prices without spooking the market.
THEN
(4) When no buying from the big holders and selling into smaller holders overtime---then standing back---Round 2 would be a doosy.

 

[CanOz]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I expected Volume to be very high today but noticed that it was only really moderate.
To me this indicates many held their positions,particularly the bigger holders.

If so
(1) They will either dump on a decent rally.
OR
(2) Buy when percieved to be bargain basement.(moderately)
AND
(3) Then in the future sell off at better prices without spooking the market.
THEN
(4) When no buying from the big holders and selling into smaller holders overtime---then standing back---Round 2 would be a doosy.

So T/A, you don't think Friday's volume was a buying climax, allowing the big money an exit?

Cheers,

 

[wayneL]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

You crack me up Count “Pirate Bear”


“Greedscam” – I fell off my chair with that one!!! (Almost killed my cat too!).

Not many get the joke, but there are clues that half of what I write is a complete p1sstake... on myself as well as others.

Glad some find it amusing! hehehe

The pattern just looks like a lot of stocks will want to recover over the next few days to me.

I tend to agree, looking at the sharpness of the bar, I would expect the dip buyers to come in seeing “value”, and see a bullish counter trend for 1-4 days with a set of inside days to today’s price bar. Then we should see a retest of the low, and perhaps a continuation of the bear move.

We may see a concerted continuation after this to wash out the sellers. If this is impulsive, suspect support should be short lived, and there will be some wide range bars down, then an “ABC” bullish counter trend, then another leg down… maybe, if this is a wave 3 0f 5 of 5… (wavepicker???).

Alternatively, this could be an “ABC”, and then continue bullishly right away and retest the current major high (23 Feb).

We could even see a rally back for a marginal high depending on how the pattern unfolds.

My current view is for a correction chopping around to 18th July (other key time points are (minor) 14 March, (major) 01 April, 13 April).

Support levels are difficult to deal with since there are several ways of dealing with this, but I’d see 5560 as key support to this initial move.


Regards


Magdoran

Dow futures up 100 at this stage.

Here comes the cavalry! LOL

 

[Bobby]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I expected Volume to be very high today but noticed that it was only really moderate.

Well you're right on that Tech, maybe like me, most when trying to contact my online broker most could not get through.

Those stupid big brokers could have set up the gear to handle this!
I wanted to buy.

Also all those dickheads that had set low stops in market must be shi" ing themselves now.

Have Fun
Bob.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I struggle to get your jokes Wayne....my concern is that many a small punter would have pissed their holdings to the wind this morning rather than sell into an intra day rally (that was on the cards this morning) if that way inclined to dump.

You are obviously a long time poster on this forum and the rabid "crash' postings of last night on this forum no doubt spooked some innocent noobs.

ASF should at least be a forum to vent all opinions so others can see that not all share the same bearish outlooks as you......at this point in time.

 

[tech/a]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Canaussiuk.

Could be but only a moderate selloff looking at volume.
The really high volume has been more often than not on dips.
The only possible selloffs seem to be December and last week but dont appear to me to be out of the ordinary.
My bet is we will see hidden volume on a LOW in the future tagging renewed interest in the larger buyers.
This will happen on a narrow range bar is my bet.
A rise on LOW volume would be seen as weak.
They will buy into weakness as you know and sell into strength.

If infact they do come back and dont continue to sell inconspicuously into any rally's.

Think there is some good stuff to be aware of in the coming days.

 

[borat]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I'm still new to all this, but I had allot of anxiety up until the middle of yesterdays trading, was tempted to sell the lost but held on after seeing a gradual but steady increase... Was tempted to buy into some (what seemed at the time, bargains ) as I did unload 1/4 of my portfolio (SMM) the other day with a profit and had some spare cash to spare...

But being new and not sure which way things would go, I decided not too jump in and just ride it out what I had left the remainder of my portfolio...

To those that are experienced, you may know how to see it as opportunity and turn a situation like this into a positive outcome, those that don't it could be otherwise...

Allot to learn here about corrections in general, psychology, heard mentality...

 

[wayneL]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I struggle to get your jokes Wayne....my concern is that many a small punter would have pissed their holdings to the wind this morning rather than sell into an intra day rally (that was on the cards this morning) if that way inclined to dump.

You are obviously a long time poster on this forum and the rabid "crash' postings of last night on this forum no doubt spooked some innocent noobs.

ASF should at least be a forum to vent all opinions so others can see that not all share the same bearish outlooks as you......at this point in time.

Freeball,

Your altruism is touching, really!

But if any noobs stupid enough to sell based on the rants of an anomonous(?) poster on the internet are probably the same ones who buy based on the ramps of others huh? It's a two way street yes?

It's amazing how the sense of humour vanishes when self interest is involved.

 

[tech/a]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Wayne--

WHAT you mean thats not really a picture of BORAT,I could be talking to anyone!!

I'm disillusioned!!

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I think it is clear over my time on ASF and our passing buys that
a) I have never agreed with a thing you have said........let alone follow it. I do however enjoy your posts.
b) I have no interest in affecting any noobs trade, I hope every decision they make turns out the best for them.
c) I have no interest in the market that you could affect whatsoever....get a grip.


Disclaimer: unless I was into low vol stocks and educating the masses.....won't go there.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Canaussiuk.

Could be but only a moderate selloff looking at volume.
The really high volume has been more often than not on dips.
The only possible selloffs seem to be December and last week but dont appear to me to be out of the ordinary.
My bet is we will see hidden volume on a LOW in the future tagging renewed interest in the larger buyers.
This will happen on a narrow range bar is my bet.
A rise on LOW volume would be seen as weak.
They will buy into weakness as you know and sell into strength.

If infact they do come back and dont continue to sell inconspicuously into any rally's.

Think there is some good stuff to be aware of in the coming days.

It seems to me on looking at your chart that we have hit the end of an EW 5, longer than the 3, and are now due for an ABC retracement. A 50% retracement on this methodology would bring us to xao of 5500, and interestingly provides support at highs and lows, at that level. The fact that the wave 5 was longer than the three may have discomfited some, but still fits with the rules of EW as wave 3 was longer than wave 1.

So if this all goes pear shaped in the next few weeks I'd hold my powder until XAO is 5500

Garpal