PANIC!!!!! (Strategies for those long)

[dubiousinfo]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Someone bought 1.2mil XJO put warrants @ 42c this morning, now trading at 36c. Wonder how they will end the day?

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

If you're going to panic then panic early before everyone else does. It's cheaper that way.

 

[numbercruncher]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I think this sums it up ....

"It is too early to tell whether the decline today constitutes a healthy correction in China or the opening act of a broader collapse."

Im mostly cashed and plan to wait until China opens today to make desicisions .....

Way i see it in China is good old Human nature at work, things where/are booming and all people saw was the Sky, now a slight correction and maybe all some people will see is the ground ? ofcoarse neither of these strategies/choices are correct. But Greed and/or Desperation bring consequences.

They say people in China, from Shoe shine boys to executives are mortgaging homes, maxing credit cards etc to get in on the stock market action (over 100pc up in a year) because of superstition, one of the luckiest years, year of the "Golden Pig" is drawing masses of this speculitive (aka Gambling) cash..

 

[Dr Doom]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I think there is anecdotal evidence of a lot of cash being on the sideline waiting for a day like today, in which case we should see the OZ market recover in the short term, but not too sure for the long term when structural problems in the US & China come into play.

 

[Dr Doom]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

That’s a brave call.


Funny, I learned an axiom about trying to catch a falling knife a long time ago, and still apply it.

In this scenario I have no longs, and have been focussed on the short side since the start of last week…

I think there is significant downside potential currently… but in specific sectors.

Mag

Mag, only in while it holds, still bearish, trade still in the money....

The market is coming back as we speak, don't know for how long though?

 

[MichaelD]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Ok your long and fully committed.

Your caught in the heavy down move and if you sold out would lose 1000s.

In this situation I'm interested in what those who post here are or would be doing.

It's simple really, and amazing that only a few in this thread actually have though about in advance what to do when the one way elevator stops.

TRADE THE PLAN, LUKE, TRADE THE PLAN.

From a personal point of view (I'm all long as of last night, both long term and short term but have been noticing more and more short signals in the short term system);

1. Long term - at this stage, nothing has fallen through its stop loss. If anything does, I'll close it and continue to trade the plan.

2. Short term - 1 mining position has been hammered and will probably close tomorrow for a 2-3R loss (the first black swan the system has had and undoubtedly not the last) and the other two may close at 0.5R - 1R losses. But who knows how the day/week will end up - seems to be a lot of knife catching going on at the moment.

There is no place for fear or panic when running a business. Indeed, I am looking forward to the next few weeks of trading since I've never traded the short term plan for real in anything other than the recent bull run and it's designed to adapt to changing conditions. It'll be a great test for the system.

 

[Dr Doom]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

It's simple really, and amazing that few in this thread actually have though about in advance what to do when the one way elevator stops.

No, a few people here have planned for this very day. I have been in cash and gold for the last month or so, and plan to top up my gold stocks in this 'correction' if the price is right.

 

[Magdoran]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Mag, only in while it holds, still bearish, trade still in the money....

The market is coming back as we speak, don't know for how long though?

Yup, trading the bullish counter trend makes sense if you're gutsy... then short the the lower high.. The question is when and at what point? Are you trading technically?


Mag

 

[MichaelD]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

No, a few people here have planned for this very day.

Absolutely, but most haven't, hence the mad, fearful stampede for the exit at 10am this morning.

 

[Kimosabi]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

No, a few people here have planned for this very day. I have been in cash and gold for the last month or so, and plan to top up my gold stocks in this 'correction' if the price is right.

I did the same.

Once I started reading up on the US Subprime Mortage Market and connected the flow-on dot's, I concluded that the best course of action was Cash and Gold as well.

I think this is only the beginning because there is way too much irresponsible lending going on out there at the moment.

Now how do I make money in a Bear Market?

 

[Kauri]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Ok your long and fully committed.

Your caught in the heavy down move and if you sold out would lose 1000s.

In this situation I'm interested in what those who post here are or would be doing.

I have 2 positions only and I know what I will be doing.

Comments.

I went to the beach and went swimming during the opening hour of the market, knowing that the GSL on my CFD's would do its job, also I didn't want to be tempted to take any rash trades. About 60% of my open trades have been closed automatically via the GSL, the rest are looking OK, so far. Was tempted to short the ASX200 last night, was only 40points down with IG when Wayne Duc and Mag were jumping in the "Charting the crash" thread, but thought better of it.

 

[Pager]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I’m a long term investor, have a margin loan but a very conservative LVR, considering the market has fallen to levels last seen at the beginning of the month, im not overly concerned if anything think it’s a pretty healthy occurrence, brings a lot of people weather they be professional investors or the small guys back to reality.

The pullback was well overdue and I for one have a few stocks on my radar to add to my long term holdings should the price be right once the dust has settled.

Cheers

Pager

 

[PureCoco]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

With every one so focused on the "downward spiral" , perhaps a more useful look at it is the amount of people buying IN. Who wouldn't be doing if they thought this was a bottomless pit. I just got back from 3 weeks in Asia and from watching Asia CNN and BBC interviews (around the lunar New Year time) , the auspicious believe metal will do well. Those based on Fire won't fair so well they named oil and gas - sorry but I am still going to drive my car. Positive People Please.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Greed and Fear are the only two emotions worth having in this situation.

As of 11.43 am I'm getting Greedy.

I was blissfully unaware of all this kerfuffle until 10 minutes ago.

Garpal

 

[MichaelD]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

IMHO, at around about 12:30pm or so the market's tone changed from panic to bargain hunting. All the sellers forcing their way out the door at the same time this morning are now gone. With no one else wanting to sell, buyers are moving back in and pushing prices back up again.

Truly fascinating to watch - a wonderful example of human nature playing out before our very eyes.

 

[dubiousinfo]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Someone bought 1.2mil XJO put warrants @ 42c this morning, now trading at 36c. Wonder how they will end the day?

Actually it was 43c they bought at. Now at 31c. Thats about $150k.

 

[CanOz]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

IMHO, at around about 12:30pm or so the market's tone changed from panic to bargain hunting. All the sellers forcing their way out the door at the same time this morning are now gone. With no one else wanting to sell, buyers are moving back in and pushing prices back up again.

Truly fascinating to watch - a wonderful example of human nature playing out before our very eyes.

DEAD CAT BOUNCE!

Cheers,

 

[nizar]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

IMHO, at around about 12:30pm or so the market's tone changed from panic to bargain hunting. All the sellers forcing their way out the door at the same time this morning are now gone. With no one else wanting to sell, buyers are moving back in and pushing prices back up again.

Truly fascinating to watch - a wonderful example of human nature playing out before our very eyes.

The bargain hunting in PDN started at about 10:30am!!

 

[billhill]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I'm kinda glad there has been a slight correction today. How far it will go i don't know but the fundamentals of both markets and my stocks haven't really changed so i'm not too worried. Once we get this correction out of the way we can get on with the rest of the year. No need to panic.

 

[carmo]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Ummm, change of strategy, hang on to stocks for 12m + , collect three dividends, then sell with a 50% discount on CGT.