PANIC!!!!! (Strategies for those long)

[borat]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Wayne--

WHAT you mean thats not really a picture of BORAT,I could be talking to anyone!!

I'm disillusioned!!

And Im lost! That really is a picture of me, so what does it mean?

 

[CanOz]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

And Im lost! That really is a picture of me, so what does it mean?

Its ok Borat, i'm confused too! lol!

I have no idea what they're talking about now!

Cheers,

 

[LifeisShort]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Its times like these that those that aren't geared to the rafters go in and have a field day picking anything they like from the panic stricken sheep. I'm not sure about anyone else but when there are sales on one goes out and shops then.....a sale is on right now.....I think there might be more weakening so I'm waiting a little longer before i get my shopping bags out and buy those red dot specials that seem to come around once a year

 

[wayneL]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I think it is clear over my time on ASF and our passing buys that
a) I have never agreed with a thing you have said........let alone follow it. I do however enjoy your posts.
Don't care who agrees or disagrees, I just enjoy the cut and thrust of debate
b) I have no interest in affecting any noobs trade, I hope every decision they make turns out the best for them.
Ditto, I have never suggested any one buy or sell anything, I discuss commentary, strategies, options, hedging etc. I am satisfied that I have added a great deal of value to this forum through discussion of futures and option strategies
c) I have no interest in the market that you could affect whatsoever....get a grip.
LOL The only market I could affect, I would have no interest in trading. I am flea on an elephant, so where did you get that idea from. Absurd!


Disclaimer: unless I was into low vol stocks and educating the masses.....won't go there.

Freeball,

You have gotten your knickers in a knot. You must have had your @rse handed to you.

dittums

 

[wayneL]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Its ok Borat, i'm confused too! lol!

I have no idea what they're talking about now!

Cheers,

Me too!

????

 

[CanOz]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

so I'm waiting a little longer before i get my shopping bags out and buy those red dot specials that seem to come around once a year

Me too. Good idea.

Cheers,

 

[Kauri]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Its times like these that those that aren't geared to the rafters go in and have a field day picking anything they like from the panic stricken sheep. I'm not sure about anyone else but when there are sales on one goes out and shops then.....a sale is on right now.....I think there might be more weakening so I'm waiting a little longer before i get my shopping bags out and buy those red dot specials that seem to come around once a year

This might be the pre-holiday sale...I think I will wait and see if the post-holiday sale is better.

 

[Bobby]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

It seems to me on looking at your chart that we have hit the end of an EW 5, longer than the 3, and are now due for an ABC retracement. A 50% retracement on this methodology would bring us to xao of 5500, and interestingly provides support at highs and lows, at that level. The fact that the wave 5 was longer than the three may have discomfited some, but still fits with the rules of EW as wave 3 was longer than wave 1.



Garpal

Yes I can see your point on this, but it all depends on the angle of the dangle.
Which will depend on the heat of the meat for accurate EW count

Bob.

 

[CanOz]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Freeball,

You have gotten your knickers in a knot. You must have had your @rse handed to you.

dittums

:iagree:

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I will be keeping my **** well away from you Wayne

 

[borat]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I think there might be more weakening so I'm waiting a little longer before i get my shopping bags out and buy those red dot specials that seem to come around once a year

I agree as well, it think I'm going to wait until the at least the choppiness had settled a bit, people are going to be sensitive and irrational for a little while I think...

Don't know if its a fair comparison, but this is what happened in may last year... I snapped up specials after the initial panic and got some good gains, only to then loose them when the bargains got even cheaper... though, my mentality went into 'panic' and I dumped the lot! Doh!

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Yes I can see your point on this, but it all depends on the angle of the dangle.
Which will depend on the heat of the meat for accurate EW count

Bob.

Agree not totally, but somewhat.,

If in doubt trust to chaos theory, but always keep a stop loss and let your profits run, and ... watch the angle of the dangle.

Garpal

 

[lesm]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Did someone ay womething about waiting for the choppiness settles before buying in. It is interesting reading some of the analysts reports of what they think may be ahead.

The quote and reference below, appeared on ET today.

“Domestic stocks were extremely overbought and even mildly bad news could trigger a meaningful shakeout,” said analysts at BCA Research in Montreal in a note. They “would not be surprised” to see a 20 to 30-per-cent drop before the market stabilizes.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/serv...ness/columnists

Watching the unfolding of the realisation of the potential effects of the Yen Carry Trade could be interesting as well.

 

[Julia]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

To respond to Tech's original question, I've done nothing today. I had one order in the market for a buy at a price which I thought fairly ridiculous and unlikely to go through but which did of course trigger.

In a SMSF can't short and am entirely happy to hold throughout the correction. All corrections in the past have gone on to record new highs.

This event today is where I just don't understand why those of you who have stop losses automatically triggered (if they are in solid companies with good fundamentals) , only to buy them back when you are sure they are once again trending up, do this, given that you are complicating your tax situation and costing yourself extra brokerage. This query doesn't apply to the penny stocks obviously.

The following extracts offer somewhat of a sense of proportion on the day's events:

China's stock market is very very volatile market. It’s had huge increases. It was due for a correction. It’s certainly true that there’s anxiety about US pressure for further renminbi appreciation, but we’ve seen that despite the appreciation over the last eighteen months Chinese exports have done very well. A further appreciation will not be difficult for China. It’s not going to bring about a collapse. There is no threat to continued firm output growth in China. As for the US share price fall, it coincides with quite good housing sales numbers and higher consumer confidence, so again I think it's a correction rather than a fundamental reversal. The Australian market is also correcting, which, given the accelerating gains of recent weeks, is no bad thing. -- John Edwards, Chief Economist HSBC Australia and New Zealand

What's really interesting about this is that ten years ago nobody would have cared if the Shanghai market fell. To that extent, it's very very important. Maybe this is the way it's going to be. At one time it would have been Wall Street or Japan. Now it's Shanghai. As for the Australian impact, our market has risen by around 10% since early January and we had been anticipating a pullback. Last year that happened in May. This year it's much earlier. This morning, there are some sharp falls, up to 5% for BHP, for example. We expect that in the next month or so that the market could come back by around 10%. Right now, the biggest online brokerage in Australia, CommSec, is jammed, which goes to show just how many people are affected here. Standing back a bit – and this is important – the property market will now start looking more attractive to many people. We already know that rents are going up... this will push rents even higher. -- James Kirby, editor of The Eureka Report

This is a reminder of the growing importance of China to the international financial system. Certainly the Chinese authorities have been moving to quell the growing bubble in the sharemarket, a concern that is in part borne out of the risks associated with the bubble bursting and the widening division between the rich and poor. There will be a significant echo in the Australian market, but that should correct itself when people realise this doesn’t mean anything about the health of the Chinese economy and won’t affect China's demand for commodities. -- Saul Eslake, ANZ Chief Economist

This has really been a technical correction caused by the government introducing measures for improving the sharemarket in China. People need to understand how underdeveloped that market is and how much further the prudential regulations have to go for that market to function properly. In the medium to long term this will benefit the functioning of the Chinese market by improving access for retails investors, whose presence has a stabilizing effect in the market. It will have a short term affect on the Australian market. The mining companies might suffer in the short term, but whatever value they lose will be returned when people realise it doesn’t reflect a weakening of the Chinese economy. -- Amy Austin, Head of International Economics and China expert at ANZ

There’s a classic knee-jerk reaction here – the US is off so we’re off too. The US market had strong start to the year, but its last major correction was in May-June last year, so its market was overdue for a fall. To put it in context for China, their sharemarket grew by 120% last year, and this is a 9% fall. Meanwhile, our market has risen 10% in eight weeks – those are huge gains in a short time. I don’t see it as a start of a bear market. It could certainly go on for a few days or weeks, but the fundamentals are good. In Paul Keating’s words, this is the correction we had to have. -- Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP.

Julia

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

all I know is when in doubt do naut - and today I just watched the bright lights flashing past - maybe tomorrow is the day to buy? or sell? lol. confusion reigns supreme.

 

[nizar]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I expected Volume to be very high today but noticed that it was only really moderate.
To me this indicates many held their positions,particularly the bigger holders.

If so
(1) They will either dump on a decent rally.
OR
(2) Buy when percieved to be bargain basement.(moderately)
AND
(3) Then in the future sell off at better prices without spooking the market.
THEN
(4) When no buying from the big holders and selling into smaller holders overtime---then standing back---Round 2 would be a doosy.

How about (5) They think its only a once-off one-day correction so its much better to hold, but if 2mrws down again then its all over and thats when we get the big dump? Theres alot of anticipation on what america will do 2nite.

 

[Bobby]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Agree not totally, but somewhat.,

If in doubt trust to chaos theory, but always keep a stop loss and let your profits run, and ... watch the angle of the dangle.

Garpal

Greetings Garpal,

Most stop loss triggers would have been hit today, snow balling etc etc....

Also the frustration of stops that suffer gaps past their trigger that don't!
Wankers place these thinking they will be protected.
Angle of the dangle players

Bob.

 

[insider]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

And Im lost! That really is a picture of me, so what does it mean?

Yageshemash Gypsy? Is been long time... I haven't seen you since the running of the jew... My other wife, no not my sister, make a beautiful cheese from her chest. You should taste... Very nice... Give me your Gypsy tears or I will take them from you... Jenqui!

 

[Kauri]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Having read a lot of the posts about the correction it would seem that the forum is equally divided between this being the start of a serious decline and a good buying oppurtunity, discounting of course the "indecisive 2 bob each way" ones. Wonder if this is indicative of the general feeling everywhere.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

My research suggests that there hasn't been a single day loss at the beginning of a correction to this extent (2.7%) since the beginning of the bull run back in March '03. The previous contender was Oct '05 with 2.1%. The average across the 4 significant pullbacks that we've had was about 1.6%.

So the extent of the single day loss today tends to set this correction apart from the others, so far.