PANIC!!!!! (Strategies for those long)

[Kauri]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

My research suggests that there hasn't been a single day loss at the beginning of a correction to this extent (2.7%) since the beginning of the bull run back in March '03. The previous contender was Oct '05 with 2.1%. The average across the 4 significant pullbacks that we've had was about 1.6%.

So the extent of the single day loss today tends to set this correction apart from the others, so far.

Isn't this the second day?

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Isn't this the second day?

I'm not sure what you mean...technically its the third day since the all-time-high on Friday...but I'm not talking about the first day, I'm refering the first signficant "single day loss" of each correction that we have had. If you look at the way the previous corrections have played out you will see that we don't just reach a peak then lose 3% the next day.

 

[Magdoran]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I'm not sure what you mean...technically its the third day since the all-time-high on Friday...but I'm not talking about the first day, I'm refering the first signficant "single day loss" of each correction that we have had. If you look at the way the previous corrections have played out you will see that we don't just reach a peak then lose 3% the next day.

This is an interesting point. This is a classic EW ending diagonal pattern, which is not common in indexes (in fact I can’t remember seeing one for an index before – anyone seen one???). This kind of move tends to be sharp and deep, but is usually not a crash like in ’87.

If you look at the 87 pattern, this gave a false break at the top, and moved down for a couple of days with one moderate wide range day, then counter trended for a few days with very small range days, then gently moved down over a couple of weeks before a break down happened. Even then there was a McLaren $$$ gift rally before the big moves started, then the major day down came after this pattern.

This current price action is unlike any of the crashes I’ve studied. I have never seen a crash play out like this. However that doesn’t mean that it can’t, just that there doesn’t seem to be a precedent that I can find that matches this pattern for indices.

I suspect that this could be a bear campaign into the 18th July if we get impulsive price action, and not corrective. I tend to favour the impulsive price action scenario currently, but will have to revisit this 18 days from the Feb 23 high.

This just doesn’t look like a crash scenario. I think this is a major wave 3 that came in, and we should see a move to a choppy wave 4 for quite some time… But I could be wrong if we get a quick “BC”.


Mag

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I added one position to my investment portfolio today.

 

[Bobby]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

All analysis now seems crap.

Who knew?

What really sh'ts me off is that my broker was not up to online trades.

You grubs cost me, & thats not the end of this

Bob.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

All analysis now seems crap.

Who knew?

What really sh'ts me off is that my broker was not up to online trades.

You grubs cost me, & thats not the end of this

Bob.

Yes Bobby some brokers seem to fail the test.
Who are the grubs that cost you just out of interest? (I haven't read all of the thread)

 

[Bobby]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Yes Bobby some brokers seem to fail the test.
Who are the grubs that cost you just out of interest? (I haven't read all of the thread)

Hi Snake,

Commsuck !!

Cheers Bob

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Hi Snake,

Commsuck !!

Cheers Bob

Gotcha Bob.

Take care.
Snake

 

[Bobby]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Gotcha Bob.

Take care.
Snake

Thanks mate good night.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Thanks mate good night.

Good night and sleep tight. :bekloppt:

 

[wayneL]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

It's a bit quieter in here tonight.

 

[wayneL]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I will be holding my long positions... its all relative with those .

With my trading funds it will be the same as usual......Today may hit my bottom line 10 odd percent......so what. Every chance a bit of carnage may present some opportunities that might not have been their previously.

Personally Last night was an eye opener for me on this forum, not hard to read between the lines.......quite obviously some crew have been burnt/frustrated at others gains and out it all came. Plenty of them in the world

Wow! Just spotted this little beauty Freebie.

I'd like you to go and read last nights posts in the charting the crash thread. Take note of who initiated any frustrated/ad hominem posts. I can tell you it wasn't any of us trading it. We were just having a discussion/running commentry on an historic move in the markets.

Take a look in the mirror son, then give yourself an uppercut.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Wayne, give it a rest........at the risk of this blimp of 'history making event' vanishing and youre ravings of last night leaving you having to vent more dribble for yet another year.

An upercut would be be well directed in youre direction......but alas youre moving from youre rental it seems......happy travels , and on youre way pop into sorrento for a beer, I'm sure youre not flying out from Gero's tinpot airport!.

In reference to youre post last night I simply informed you that you were out again with youre whip of negativity ....predictable for you and which yet again fizzed out today.

Happy to always present a poz spin on ASF in regard to the market.....in every single post

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

In defence of Wayne L he talks sense, most don't.

 

[wayneL]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Wayne, give it a rest........at the risk of this blimp of 'history making event' vanishing and youre ravings of last night leaving you having to vent more dribble for yet another year.

An upercut would be be well directed in youre direction......but alas youre moving from youre rental it seems......happy travels

The history making event has been printed, profit banked, it can't vanish.

If you intended to make some sort of class statement by the rental quip... well I've still got the yardstick handy... and you will be surprised and humiliated, trust me

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Don't forget that beer Wayne and Im glad you made a profit last night the point was not much happend back at home in Oz......as yet

 

[wayneL]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Freeball

You use a lot of smilies for someone who is so frightened by last nights move that you are prompted to shoot the messenger.

 

[wayneL]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

 

[rederob]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Was there panic?
I missed it, aparently.
Bought more PDN yesterday - seemed like a bargain basement sale was being rolled out, and one should try to take the occasional bite into cheaper yellow cake when it is offered.
I really can't see how large portfolio gains are "claimed" when so many keep buying into record stock market prices.
Each to their own, I guess.
He smiles, and trundles off to earn another day's wages.

 

[UMike]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Not so much Panicking today. Dow up 69 pts ATM