PANIC!!!!! (Strategies for those long)
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theasxgorilla
Problem solved... next bubble.
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Re: PANIC!!!!!
Looks like sideways to lower for rest of the day, a more interesting day will be tomorrow I think.
Mag, for what it's worth, I trade the XJO cfd on a 10 min chart with confirmation from BHP & XTL 1 minute chart. Keep it simple I say, works for me on day's like todayMagdoran said:
Looks like sideways to lower for rest of the day, a more interesting day will be tomorrow I think. 
numbercruncher
Beware of Dropbears
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Re: PANIC!!!!!
Interesting though isnt it, just shows you how jumpy the entire worlds equity markets are .....
The way overinflated Chinese market takes a hit and every other market follows!!
Cautionary warning in this i feel!
Interesting though isnt it, just shows you how jumpy the entire worlds equity markets are .....
The way overinflated Chinese market takes a hit and every other market follows!!
Cautionary warning in this i feel!
Re: PANIC!!!!!
I suppose that in my view currently the dominant trend in the daily may now be bearish, hence I’ll look to short the rallies, instead of what the majority have been doing during the majority of the bull campaign, buying the dips. Kind of counter intuitive…
I take it you won’t hold overnight?
Mag
Aha, a day trader no less. Makes sense. I just can’t handle the pressure to make calls that fast anymore. Used to trade warrants a lot a few years ago, but much prefer position trading now…Dr Doom said:Mag, for what it's worth, I trade the XJO cfd on a 10 min chart with confirmation from BHP & XTL 1 minute chart. Keep it simple I say, works for me on day's like today
I suppose that in my view currently the dominant trend in the daily may now be bearish, hence I’ll look to short the rallies, instead of what the majority have been doing during the majority of the bull campaign, buying the dips. Kind of counter intuitive…
I take it you won’t hold overnight?
Mag
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Re: PANIC!!!!!
No, out already at 5860. Hands in pockets time now.
DD
Magdoran said:
No, out already at 5860. Hands in pockets time now.
DD
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Re: PANIC!!!!!
Like Michael its an easy call for me.
If it hits its stop I'm out.
If it hits its exit I'm out.(All my longterm exits are based upon close).
If it gives a buy signal in the future--buy.
I doubt I'll see longterm buy signals for a while as they operate off the Highest high for 70 bars and a cross of the highest bar for the last 10 bars (double dutch I know) but it keeps you out of taking long positions longerterm if there is a prolonged correction.
I'm giving back some serious open profit currently but doesnt look to bad on the EXIT front.
Dont think this is over for a little while.
5 yrs before the XAO hits 6000-----I've got that archived----classic.
Like Michael its an easy call for me.
If it hits its stop I'm out.
If it hits its exit I'm out.(All my longterm exits are based upon close).
If it gives a buy signal in the future--buy.
I doubt I'll see longterm buy signals for a while as they operate off the Highest high for 70 bars and a cross of the highest bar for the last 10 bars (double dutch I know) but it keeps you out of taking long positions longerterm if there is a prolonged correction.
I'm giving back some serious open profit currently but doesnt look to bad on the EXIT front.
Dont think this is over for a little while.
5 yrs before the XAO hits 6000-----I've got that archived----classic.
Re: PANIC!!!!!
Having seen many booms and crashes since 1979 when I began trading, we have nothing to fear except fear itself. I'm holding, have no debt (paid it off recently with profits) and picked up some more HCY this morning at 1.7c. This sell off is mild compared to many other occasions. Hold on to your seats though for a bit of a wild time. Those who sold when last year's correction was at its worst are still regreting their decision to sell.
DYOR
Having seen many booms and crashes since 1979 when I began trading, we have nothing to fear except fear itself. I'm holding, have no debt (paid it off recently with profits) and picked up some more HCY this morning at 1.7c. This sell off is mild compared to many other occasions. Hold on to your seats though for a bit of a wild time. Those who sold when last year's correction was at its worst are still regreting their decision to sell.
DYOR
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Re: PANIC!!!!!
so far ive only lost gains from yesterday, thanks mostly to SMM. im in the position now where losses today are around 7% of capital. i think we may see further downside and i may exit some positions before the day is out.
we have seen a decent bounce, but thats what happened last correction, many many days in a row. market is down ppl try and pick the bottom, market turns then next day is down again.
what do people think?
so far ive only lost gains from yesterday, thanks mostly to SMM. im in the position now where losses today are around 7% of capital. i think we may see further downside and i may exit some positions before the day is out.
we have seen a decent bounce, but thats what happened last correction, many many days in a row. market is down ppl try and pick the bottom, market turns then next day is down again.
what do people think?
Prospector
Not a scaredy cat anymore
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Re: PANIC!!!!!
I think tonight will tell the story when the US market opens. There is a lot of Super cash around at the moment and so maybe the market will bounce up for an hour or so as people look for bargains, then the uncertainty about tonight will creep in and maybe a fall again. Just my thoughts and really they aren't worth all that much.
I do have a green though - WOW:
I think tonight will tell the story when the US market opens. There is a lot of Super cash around at the moment and so maybe the market will bounce up for an hour or so as people look for bargains, then the uncertainty about tonight will creep in and maybe a fall again. Just my thoughts and really they aren't worth all that much.
I do have a green though - WOW
:
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Re: PANIC!!!!!
I have a feeling the US will be supported via the PPT and "dip buyers", so I'm expecting it to stall (expectations and reality often diverge )
On the other hand, looking at whats happening in the Yen carry trade, bonds, and uncertainty in gold, it could be a serious route. The elephant in the room is the carry trade, but there is actually a herd of elephants in the guise of sub-prime motrgage lender disintegration, a US RE market in freefall, overvaluation across asset classes and impending recession (as warned of by Greedscam)
For the potential to turn into something really ugly, this event certainly has the potential, but as western governments are nearing their election cycle, they will be desperate to try and prop this up.
Interesting times.
Yes tonight will say volumes as to whats really going on.Prospector said:I think tonight will tell the story when the US market opens. There is a lot of Super cash around at the moment and so maybe the market will bounce up for an hour or so as people look for bargains, then the uncertainty about tonight will creep in and maybe a fall again. Just my thoughts and really they aren't worth all that much.
I do have a green though - WOW
I have a feeling the US will be supported via the PPT and "dip buyers", so I'm expecting it to stall (expectations and reality often diverge
)On the other hand, looking at whats happening in the Yen carry trade, bonds, and uncertainty in gold, it could be a serious route. The elephant in the room is the carry trade, but there is actually a herd of elephants in the guise of sub-prime motrgage lender disintegration, a US RE market in freefall, overvaluation across asset classes and impending recession (as warned of by Greedscam)
For the potential to turn into something really ugly, this event certainly has the potential, but as western governments are nearing their election cycle, they will be desperate to try and prop this up.
Interesting times.
Re: PANIC!!!!!
“Greedscam” – I fell off my chair with that one!!! (Almost killed my cat too!).
The pattern just looks like a lot of stocks will want to recover over the next few days to me.
I tend to agree, looking at the sharpness of the bar, I would expect the dip buyers to come in seeing “value”, and see a bullish counter trend for 1-4 days with a set of inside days to today’s price bar. Then we should see a retest of the low, and perhaps a continuation of the bear move.
We may see a concerted continuation after this to wash out the sellers. If this is impulsive, suspect support should be short lived, and there will be some wide range bars down, then an “ABC” bullish counter trend, then another leg down… maybe, if this is a wave 3 0f 5 of 5… (wavepicker???).
Alternatively, this could be an “ABC”, and then continue bullishly right away and retest the current major high (23 Feb).
We could even see a rally back for a marginal high depending on how the pattern unfolds.
My current view is for a correction chopping around to 18th July (other key time points are (minor) 14 March, (major) 01 April, 13 April).
Support levels are difficult to deal with since there are several ways of dealing with this, but I’d see 5560 as key support to this initial move.
Regards
Magdoran
You crack me up Count “Pirate Bear”wayneL said:Yes tonight will say volumes as to whats really going on.
I have a feeling the US will be supported via the PPT and "dip buyers", so I'm expecting it to stall (expectations and reality often diverge
On the other hand, looking at whats happening in the Yen carry trade, bonds, and uncertainty in gold, it could be a serious route. The elephant in the room is the carry trade, but there is actually a herd of elephants in the guise of sub-prime motrgage lender disintegration, a US RE market in freefall, overvaluation across asset classes and impending recession (as warned of by Greedscam)
For the potential to turn into something really ugly, this event certainly has the potential, but as western governments are nearing their election cycle, they will be desperate to try and prop this up.
Interesting times.
“Greedscam” – I fell off my chair with that one!!! (Almost killed my cat too!).
The pattern just looks like a lot of stocks will want to recover over the next few days to me.
I tend to agree, looking at the sharpness of the bar, I would expect the dip buyers to come in seeing “value”, and see a bullish counter trend for 1-4 days with a set of inside days to today’s price bar. Then we should see a retest of the low, and perhaps a continuation of the bear move.
We may see a concerted continuation after this to wash out the sellers. If this is impulsive, suspect support should be short lived, and there will be some wide range bars down, then an “ABC” bullish counter trend, then another leg down… maybe, if this is a wave 3 0f 5 of 5… (wavepicker???).
Alternatively, this could be an “ABC”, and then continue bullishly right away and retest the current major high (23 Feb).
We could even see a rally back for a marginal high depending on how the pattern unfolds.
My current view is for a correction chopping around to 18th July (other key time points are (minor) 14 March, (major) 01 April, 13 April).
Support levels are difficult to deal with since there are several ways of dealing with this, but I’d see 5560 as key support to this initial move.
Regards
Magdoran
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Re: PANIC!!!!!
Moggi.
Right at this very moment (Next few days) I dont think you can chart or guess corrective patterns (Could be wrong).
Think however you can predict crowd behaviour.
Going on todays price action few took up the opportunity to buy at lower pricing--it was muted.
China's lead a little higher may help USA buyers become optimistic and some buying back at these levels.
If so the same will happen here.
Until selling pressure is replaced by buying things will remain flat as participants look at everything from other markets to gold,to currency for a lead.
These will be critical for longterm stability or change in sentiment.
For me to early to predict anything longerterm ie length and extent of correction,and everything else is on a daily what leads what basis.
one thing I think is certain.
VOLATILITY
Moggi.
Right at this very moment (Next few days) I dont think you can chart or guess corrective patterns (Could be wrong).
Think however you can predict crowd behaviour.
Going on todays price action few took up the opportunity to buy at lower pricing--it was muted.
China's lead a little higher may help USA buyers become optimistic and some buying back at these levels.
If so the same will happen here.
Until selling pressure is replaced by buying things will remain flat as participants look at everything from other markets to gold,to currency for a lead.
These will be critical for longterm stability or change in sentiment.
For me to early to predict anything longerterm ie length and extent of correction,and everything else is on a daily what leads what basis.
one thing I think is certain.
VOLATILITY
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Re: PANIC!!!!!
Ouch! CFD stop loss useless. Just gets you out at the first price of the day, which in this case was the lowest price.
Didn't use guaranteed stop loss which can only be set at 5% below prevailing price anyway.
Need to lick wounds and figure out how to prevent this in future. Maybe safer to stick to ordinary share trading and away from these CFDs.
Ouch! CFD stop loss useless. Just gets you out at the first price of the day, which in this case was the lowest price.
Didn't use guaranteed stop loss which can only be set at 5% below prevailing price anyway.
Need to lick wounds and figure out how to prevent this in future. Maybe safer to stick to ordinary share trading and away from these CFDs.
Re: PANIC!!!!!
Ok, now I really don't get it!!! I come home from work and what has taken me 9 months to recover from the last so called correction is gone in a day and no one has quoted "a sea of red" or "blood on the floor". You guys not going soft on me are you? (starting to feel a little like Wile E Coyote chasing the Roadrunner in the cartoons, just as I catch up CRASH!!!)
Ok, now I really don't get it!!! I come home from work and what has taken me 9 months to recover from the last so called correction is gone in a day and no one has quoted "a sea of red" or "blood on the floor". You guys not going soft on me are you? (starting to feel a little like Wile E Coyote chasing the Roadrunner in the cartoons, just as I catch up CRASH!!!)
Re: PANIC!!!!!
I’m not thinking conventionally here… I’m using a custom view if you will.
If the markets continue down from here, the bearish move may well be quite sharp, and could snowball into a major correction from here if that is the case.
My preferred theory is that this is a big wave 3 top in a bull campaign, so I doubt this is a major wave 5 that has terminated. Sure, if it is, we could expect to see a lot of wide range down days, quite possible, but at this point I favour a brief rally then another test. If so, the second test will tell us a lot about the trend.
Regards,
Magdoran
You’d be surprised daffy, that the XAO closed right on a price marker I’d projected for support today. Interestingly so did the US and European indexes. It just looks like a natural place for support. I could be wrong, but I’ve spent a lot of time working out the scenarios if my time point proved correct…tech/a said:
I’m not thinking conventionally here… I’m using a custom view if you will.
If the markets continue down from here, the bearish move may well be quite sharp, and could snowball into a major correction from here if that is the case.
My preferred theory is that this is a big wave 3 top in a bull campaign, so I doubt this is a major wave 5 that has terminated. Sure, if it is, we could expect to see a lot of wide range down days, quite possible, but at this point I favour a brief rally then another test. If so, the second test will tell us a lot about the trend.
Regards,
Magdoran
Porper
Ralph Nelson Elliott
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Re: PANIC!!!!!
Certainly going to be volatile.
The way I see it at the moment is like this.
Short term is going to be difficult to trade as you will get stopped out a lot of the time, especially with tight stops.We can only guess where tomorrow might take us in this environment.
Medium term, who knows, but do you think the market has hit an all time high or do you see it testing and breaking the recent high ?
I know what I think, look at the trend over the past few years.
Having said that, if you are positive but feel at risk to a 1000 or more point plunge any day, trade CFD'S with a guaranteed stop.I was quite surprised but IG Markets gave me a guaranteed 10% stop at 4.00 pm today.
Otherwise, as Tech mentioned, trade normally, if you are stopped out, so be it, if there is a buy signal, buy.Don't deviate from your normal plan.
tech/a said:
Certainly going to be volatile.
The way I see it at the moment is like this.
Short term is going to be difficult to trade as you will get stopped out a lot of the time, especially with tight stops.We can only guess where tomorrow might take us in this environment.
Medium term, who knows, but do you think the market has hit an all time high or do you see it testing and breaking the recent high ?
I know what I think, look at the trend over the past few years.
Having said that, if you are positive but feel at risk to a 1000 or more point plunge any day, trade CFD'S with a guaranteed stop.I was quite surprised but IG Markets gave me a guaranteed 10% stop at 4.00 pm today.
Otherwise, as Tech mentioned, trade normally, if you are stopped out, so be it, if there is a buy signal, buy.Don't deviate from your normal plan.
