OXR - Oxiana Limited

[MBI]

I suppose it depends what price you got in at and what profits you are happy with. I got in about 0.90 so I am happy to ride the profits a bit longer and risk a small drop. If it went below 3.75 again I will be out as I am sick and tired of it yo-yoing like it has the last 2 years.

I am with you Legs, it has been a frustrating 'hold your breath' thing for me over the past 2 yrs too. It is just too hard to understand the dynamics for this counter. All the fundamentals are positive - gold, copper, nickel prices are up during this period, it has good mgt and +ve cashflow to either acquire for growth or be acquired which is good for sp. And it is not a laggard considering its high daily volume, but it just simply content with the yo-yo acts until last month. Can only suspect this has something to do with those smart traders profiting from arbitrage with its US-listed ADRs given our A$ strength and US$ volatility over this period. Although I am glad to see it broke the resistance of 3.80 but will hold my breath again and waste no time to get out if it does a sub $4 again.

Cheers.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Within the context of share price activity since perhaps March last year you could certainly say the market for OXR has been sideways.

However since March this year the share price has appreciated over 50%. Thats some pretty serious momentum. Average weekly volume has also increased during this time by over 35% percent. New all-time-high and now blue sky...looks good from where I'm sitting, hang on for the ride.

 

[bigdog]

Todays HeraldSun
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22091528-664,00.html

CMC Markets foreign exchange dealer Josh Whiting said continuing market speculation that copper and gold miner Oxiana Ltd and zinc producer Zinifex could merge or be taken over had sparked interest in the Australian dollar.

 

[bigdog]

ASX ann today
OXR 8:33 AM Oxiana Limited Quarterly Activities Report
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00739794

http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story.php?/1/54904/-Oxiana-on-track-to-meet-forecasts

Oxiana on track to meet forecasts
18-July-07 by AAP
Oxiana on track to meet forecasts - 18 Jul, 07:24am

Precious and base metals producer, Oxiana Ltd, says it's on track to meet its annual production and cost forecasts.

In the company's quarterly report for the three months ending June 30, released this morning, Oxiana also said its Prominent Hill project in South Australia remained on schedule for production in 2008.

There had also been exploration success at Sepon in south central Laos, Golden Grove in Western Australia and Prominent Hill, Oxiana said.

Copper production at Sepon was higher for the quarter at 16,271 tonnes, the company said, while resource evaluation had also started at the Pha Bing prospect following discovery of high grade copper mineralisation.

"Exploration around known resources and at greenfields prospects continues to deliver significant new copper mineralisation," the report said.

Production and mining of gold in the area had also included included 43.8 metres at 8.7g/t Au and 23 metres at 15.9g/t Au.

The company said it had been "mainly a zinc production quarter at Golden Grove" with 36,675 tonnes of zinc produced.

The company was upbeat about exploration prospects.

"High grade zinc and copper mineralisation continues to be discovered beneath the Xantho and Scuddles deposits, with results including 65.3m at 7.4 per cent Cu and 29.4m at 19.5 per cent Zn."

Development of the Prominent Hill copper-gold project also remained on schedule.

"Mineralisation has shown continuity over more than one kilometre, with recent results including 86 metres at 1.7 per cent Cu, 23 metres at 2.5 per cent Cu, 23 metre at 1.9 per cent Cu and 47 metres at 3.2g/t Au."

Oxiana's half year financial results will be announced on August 23.

 

[kamil]

Can you guys share your thoughts on current SP movement? I have been watching OXR for a little while waiting for a good entry opportunity. If Dow rebounces this or next week that could be it. Do you know of any other reasons possibly influencing current SP movement? The SP has been moving sideways for last couple of weeks, but other than that OXR has been an outstanding performer for a while now.

 

[legs]

a 3% plus drop in overnight copper price played a big part in todays downturn. Most miners dropped 3-4%, ZFX 4.14%, RIO 3.42%, etc. just a bad day alltogether...MIGHT be a good entry now.
I believe a lot of options expired today as well??

 

[kamil]

cheers legs, that does explain things, I guess I'll wait and see were Dow and commodity prices are going...

 

[countryboy]

looks like an even better entry poiny today.The ox hits the 3,80 mark and bounces back. I thought the 4.00 mark had broken this.maybe one of the chartists could explain what is happening.

 

[Sean K]

looks like an even better entry poiny today.The ox hits the 3,80 mark and bounces back. I thought the 4.00 mark had broken this.maybe one of the chartists could explain what is happening.

Support lines are being smashed all over the place, hard to make any calls when panic sets in, IMO. Should be support at $3.50, but it really depends on what the general market is doing now, and the lemmings are running over the cliff. Hard to be comfortable with any long positions at the moment, unless you're a 'long term' investor and don't need the equity for a while. So, depends a lot on your position and style. Having said that, this might be a blip like 28 Feb, but listening to commentators on the DOW fall it seems more likely to be a larger correction, which could knock this through $3.50. I'm officially on the fence as usual.

 

[GreatPig]

Back at my recent up trendline now, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it holding there. Above average volume and closed on low, some RSI divergence, and price now dropped into the middle of the GMMA long-term group as they start to turn down.

But then I get everything dead wrong, so look for the killer bounce on Monday!

Cheers,
GP

 

[Mofra]

Back at my recent up trendline now, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it holding there. Above average volume and closed on low, some RSI divergence, and price now dropped into the middle of the GMMA long-term group as they start to turn down.

On the plus side GP OXR (technically) has a reputation for filling gaps relatively quickly so those looking to buy on pullback weakness may well be rewarded in a fairly short space of time.

In the context of the wider market we are certianly in for an interesting week - confidence must be shaken already and there would certainly be a number of players sitting on the sidelines waiting until after the next RBA meeting.

 

[56gsa]

apologies for x-posting... OXR now has 46% of TOE so thats a nice foot in the U camp with NELs advanced projects in WA and early days in namibia - based on TOEs last close this equates to $4.40 for each NEL share - not bad in the current market although still relatively cheap i suspect ... nice timing for TOE.. TOE would have to fall to 67c for this to equate to current NEL price

TORO AND NOVA AGREE TO MERGER PROPOSAL
The Boards of Toro Energy Limited (ASX: TOE) and Nova Energy Limited (ASX: NEL), owned as to 57% and 25% respectively by Oxiana Limited (ASX: OXR), have today announced a recommended merger by way of a scrip takeover offer by Toro for Nova (the “Offer”).
The Offer terms are 5.5 Toro shares for each Nova share and, if successful, the merger will result in Oxiana holding about 46% of the merged company on an undiluted basis. Based on the closing trading prices of Toro ($0.80) and Nova ($3.70) on 2 August 2007, the Offer implies a market value for the merged company approaching A$400 million.
When commenting on the merger from an Oxiana perspective, Mr Owen Hegarty (Managing Director and CEO) said:
“Oxiana is supportive of the transaction – it will strengthen our investment in the uranium industry by bringing together two complementary management teams and an excellent portfolio of advanced projects and exploration tenure to create one of the largest Australian listed uranium explorers and developers. Oxiana believes the Australian uranium industry has a strong future and the merger of Toro and Nova has the potential to make an important contribution to the Oxiana Group in the years to come.”
The merged company will have three advanced projects in Australia (Lake Way – Centipede, Napperby and Warrior) and extensive exploration positions in Australia (SA, NT and WA) and Africa (Namibia, Morocco and Guinea).
Oxiana intends to accept the Offer for its holding following the expiry or termination of the escrow restrictions on its Nova shareholding (which will occur no later than 23 August 2007), in the absence of a higher offer and subject to its acceptance increasing Toro’s relevant interest in Nova shares above 80%.
Oxiana’s financial adviser in respect of this transaction is Gryphon Partners and legal advice is being provided by Clayton Utz.
For further information on the proposed merger, refer to the Toro and Nova announcements released earlier today which will also be available on Oxiana’s website.

 

[bigdog]

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/oxiana-merges-uranium-arms/2007/08/06/1186252629499.html

Oxiana merges uranium arms

Jamie Freed
August 7, 2007

RAPIDLY growing mid-tier miner Oxiana has simplified the structure of its uranium interests through a $400 million merging of its uranium affiliates, Toro Energy and Nova Energy, amid talk of more consolidation in the booming mining industry.

Oxiana will emerge with a 46 per cent stake in the combined company, which will have uranium development projects in Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory along with overseas exploration projects. Toro is offering 5.5 of its shares for each Nova share, equivalent to a 19 per cent premium to Nova's closing price before a trading halt on Friday morning.

Oxiana isn't the only mid-tier miner targeting uranium. After a presentation at the Diggers and Dealers conference in Kalgoorlie yesterday, Peter Kukielski, the chief operating officer of diversified Canadian miner Teck Cominco, said his company was interested in diversifying into uranium, nickel and iron ore.

"We look at opportunities as they come up," he said; "just not the right one has come up yet."

Although Teck has made a $C4 billion ($4.43 billion) bid for South American copper miner Aur Resources, it remains cashed up and hunting for other acquisitions following its failed $US17.4 billion ($20.3 billion) tilt at Canadian nickel miner Inco last year.

Citigroup recently said a merger between Australian mid-tier miners Oxiana and Zinifex would make sense and would fill a void in the mining space following BHP Billiton's purchase of WMC Resources and Xstrata's acquisition of MIM.

"We're always on the lookout for merger and acquisition activity," the managing director of Oxiana, Owen Hegarty, said yesterday, "from the smaller, bolt-on activity through to the company transformer."

Zinifex's chief operating officer, Brett Fletcher, said his company was also looking for attractive assets even though it only recently completed the $400 million purchase of the Canadian explorer Wolfden Resources. Analysts expect Zinifex will receive about $2.5 billion following the spin-off of its smelting business later this year.

"The objective is to have high-margin, long-life mines," Mr Fletcher said.

Both Zinifex and Oxiana have been deemed potential targets for Teck, given their size, assets and commodity mix. Zinifex owns the world-class Century zinc mine, but the operation does not have a particularly long life remaining. Oxiana has attractive copper, gold and base metals assets but they are probably too small to attract attention from the world's largest miners, such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and even Xstrata. Teck is one of the few diversified miners not averse to producing gold. Oxiana produces gold in Laos and is developing a gold project in Indonesia.

 

[Nicks]

Lately I have been seeing nothing but excellent media and analyst coverage about Oxiana. The results are very good as well. Add into the mix a merger, aquisition prospects or even takeover and excellent gold prices, this stock is a beauty.

 

[greenfs]

I am a holder of this stock. I met an Engineer who is now working in Oxianna's SA mine as a contractor. He says the rank and file and middle management are simply resigned to a BHP takeover any day soon.

That can't be good for morale. He also said that he has gained the impression that some of the cap-ex was being completed at minimum cost to improve short-term profititability to maximise the takeover value.

Has anyone else heard anything in recent times to match this gosip. If so, I reckon I might double my 'investment'.

 

[reece55]

I am a holder of this stock. I met an Engineer who is now working in Oxianna's SA mine as a contractor. He says the rank and file and middle management are simply resigned to a BHP takeover any day soon.

That can't be good for morale. He also said that he has gained the impression that some of the cap-ex was being completed at minimum cost to improve short-term profititability to maximise the takeover value.

Has anyone else heard anything in recent times to match this gosip. If so, I reckon I might double my 'investment'.

It would have to be a ripper of a price for Hegarty to let go of his prize.....

A lot of OXR's mines are ones that BHP always could have had in the past. They declined to participate because they were too marginal some 3-5 years ago. I mean, the Ox bought Prominent Hill at a steal from MEP back in 2004, now 3 years later they are laughing to the bank. With the sharp increase in commodity prices, it's now a different boat all together. But I think it would be a cold day in hell that the OXR board would simply let BHP walk in and take the lot. There is plenty of tension between the 2, but anything less than $5.00 and you would have to think it just wouldn't be recommended by the board.

Cheers
Reece

 

[golfmos123]

With the sharp increase in commodity prices, it's now a different boat all together. But I think it would be a cold day in hell that the OXR board would simply let BHP walk in and take the lot. There is plenty of tension between the 2, but anything less than $5.00 and you would have to think it just wouldn't be recommended by the board.

I hold this one too having bought in at mid 2's. Still think it is a good story and worth persevering further with. Given the recent rises in SP, I can't believe that they'd walk away even at $5. I think the takeover price would need to start with a 6 to make the board think about walking away - they're probably going to get to the 5's without a takeover rumour in the next 12 months-ish anyway.

 

[wavepicker]

they're probably going to get to the 5's without a takeover rumour in the next 12 months-ish anyway.

They have more chance of seeing $2.50 before $5 in the next 12 months. Have you seen the how the broader market has been behaving the last few weeks??. The move to $4 was the last leg up IMO. The consolidating pattern before the last leg up was the clue. Fundementals don't count for much ATM.
Trade what you see, not what you expect or hope to happen.

That is not financial advice merely an observation based seeing this type of market pattern many times before.

Just my opinion and 2c worth

 

[chops_a_must]

This should break out in the coming weeks/months and blowoff to new highs. Target of $4.37/4.40 seems quite probable. However, as 5th waves in commodities often do extend perhaps even $5.50 maybe a possibility. IMO that will end the bull campain for this stock and coincide with the competion of the bull trend in commodities

Just wondering if this count is now invalid...

They have more chance of seeing $2.50 before $5 in the next 12 months. Have you seen the how the broader market has been behaving the last few weeks??. The move to $4 was the last leg up IMO. The consolidating pattern before the last leg up was the clue. Fundementals don't count for much ATM.
Trade what you see, not what you expect or hope to happen.

That is not financial advice merely an observation based seeing this type of market pattern many times before.

Just my opinion and 2c worth

Did you expect this to happen? Given you were waaaayyyyy off the mark. Could it just be that this is a part of an early wave in the broader wave 5 pattern? And by my reckoning, if that is so that it couldn't lead it to go below 2.60.

So I'll bet you 50c it gets to 4.50 before it closes lower than 2.60 :

 

[wavepicker]

Just wondering if this count is now invalid...

Did you expect this to happen? Given you were waaaayyyyy off the mark. Could it just be that this is a part of an early wave in the broader wave 5 pattern? And by my reckoning, if that is so that it couldn't lead it to go below 2.60.

So I'll bet you 50c it gets to 4.50 before it closes lower than 2.60 :

True it failed to reach the expected target. We are dealing with probabilities here. There are no certainties in the market. But realizing that this is not going to happen and having the ability to recognize that this market is now churning, helps a lot. Maybe you should practice this, it might actually help you one day.

If my memory serves me correct you acted in much the same way with Zinc and Zinifex earlier on in the year, cocky and arrogant initially only to be silenced after a few weeks.

I'll take up your offer for the bet, but make it $50 instead of 50c