OXR - Oxiana Limited

[rederob]

Just out of curiousity...the price of gold now has been driven up to ard US$650 mark. This is mainly due the middle east unrest. Now let's see what will happen when the tension is over...the gold price will go down again (slight correction). Will this drive the price of OXR down again?

Wat do u guys think?

JT

I think gold would be almost as high today regardless of the Middle East situation.
Moreover, I think gold will be much higher very soon (all time high before end September).
OXR will have a cracker of an Annual Report and punters who missed the boat will just have to pay the price or drown their sorrows.
I could always be wrong, but I doubt it!

 

[NettAssets]

It will be an interesting time

Oxiana is already a bit overvalued campared to the other Aussie goldies and this may be justifyable cause I also think there will be lots of light in the annual report this chart would seem to suggest that some of this sentiment is already priced in

John
Ive decided to bet on CBH instead

 

[snapper_man]

I've been a big fan of Oxiana for a long while buying about 7 years ago on the advice of a freind and his praise of the management. In that time I have seen them rise over $3 and now account for around 60% of my self managed super fund - yes I know that is not healthy but I really believe oxiana have a long way to go.
A couple of points about Oxiana. They make a lot more from Copper and Zinc than Gold. In fact copper will add four times what gold will do the bottom line this year. Zinc will add roughly the same this year. So Gold, given current production and cost will make up roughly 1/9th of Net Profit only. Going forward with prominent hill and a possible/likely sepon expansion, Copper and the medium and long term price of the metal will be more important to the share price of Oxiana.
Some analysts have forecast $320 m. net profit this year. This will almost certainly be bettered by at least $100m. If copper/zinc prices average anywhere near current levels next year this will be bettered again.
Prominent Hill is a monster and will roughly double current production and net profit. I do not think the market has digested the scale and economy of prominent Hill.

This week - 20th July the latest quarterly figures come out. I have a strong feelling that their will be a big resource upgrade at Thengkham North where they have had a very busy drilling program.
Unless there is disapointing figures (unlikely) in this quarterly I expect the share price to receive a big boost by the end of the week.

End of August - Prominent Hill feasability study released.

End of Sept - Half year financials should give the first indications of a big profit for year.

The next 2 months are an exciting time for oxiana. I expect the share price to over $4 by the end of Sept.

Cheers
T.

 

[crayfish]

From http://www.miningnews.net/StoryView.asp?StoryID=62298 :

Solid quarter by the Ox

Michael Quinn
Thursday, July 20, 2006

OXIANA says it remains on track to meet all forecasts after delivering a "rock solid" operational quarter that was highlighted by a strong copper performance at its Sepon project in Laos.

Sepon produced 15,995 tonnes (or 35.25 million pounds) of copper cathode – slightly above the 15,000t per quarter capacity – at cash costs of US70c per pound, and total production costs of 85c/lb, with the unhedged Oxiana noting an average copper price for the quarter of $3.30/lb.

Gold performance at Sepon was again comparatively weak – 39,274 ounces at total cash costs of $340 per ounce and total production costs of $501/oz – with Oxiana managing director Owen Hegarty pointing out that copper was by far the main cash generator at the project.

Meantime, in Western Australia the company's polymetallic Golden Grove operation produced 60,400t of zinc-in-concentrate, down from the "world record" March quarter but still putting the company on track to meet the upper end of the forecast 130,000-140,000t range for the year. Total production costs were 51c/lb (net of credits) with the zinc price averaging $1.49/lb.

On the development front, Oxiana will announce capital and operating costs for Prominent Hill in South Australia next month, coinciding with the company's half year results, while exploration is currently targeting the copper-gold system at depth.

Corporately, Hegarty said the company was "not in any conversations about being acquired".

Shares in Oxiana were up 15c (4.8%) at $3.26 in midday trade.

 

[crayfish]

Sheesh! If my maths is correct that equates to a profit of around US$220mill for the quarter, from production of copper/zinc/gold...ooops, I forgot the silver. (I guess not including other costs, exploration, Prominent Hill etc.). More than 95% of that figure is from copper and zinc. Snapper is dead right - Clearly OXR is no longer just a 'goldie'. Some nice drill results in there too.

 

[nizar]

Well according to my calcs; EBIT for the quarter is around us$180m

Au: 48koz at sepon and GG at us$350/oz cash cost
average gold price for the quarter about us$638
so margin per oz is us$280
net revenue = 288*48,000 = us$13,824,000

Cu: 16ktonnes at sepon , 1ktonnes at GG = 17ktonnes at cash cost of 60c/lb
average LME copper price for the quarter us$3.30/lb
so margin per lb is us$2.70/lb
net revenue = 2.70*17,000*1,000*2.2 = us$100,980,000

Zn: 30ktonnes at GG at cash cost 39c/lb
average LME zinc price for the quarter about us$1.49
so margin per lb is $us1.10
net revenue = 1.10*30,000*1,000*2.2 = us$72,600,000

Total EBIT = 72,600,000 + 100,980,000 + 13,824,000
= us$187,404,000

I am expecting NPAT for 2006 to be about us$500million

Im calling OXR sp to be over $4 by the time half yearly is out on August 25th

 

[clowboy]

Using westpacs shares on issue I get that estimate to be around US11cps.

Is this correct?

 

[YELNATS]

I've been a big fan of Oxiana for a long while buying about 7 years ago on the advice of a freind and his praise of the management. In that time I have seen them rise over $3 and now account for around 60% of my self managed super fund - yes I know that is not healthy but I really believe oxiana have a long way to go.
A couple of points about Oxiana. They make a lot more from Copper and Zinc than Gold. In fact copper will add four times what gold will do the bottom line this year. Zinc will add roughly the same this year. So Gold, given current production and cost will make up roughly 1/9th of Net Profit only. Going forward with prominent hill and a possible/likely sepon expansion, Copper and the medium and long term price of the metal will be more important to the share price of Oxiana.
Some analysts have forecast $320 m. net profit this year. This will almost certainly be bettered by at least $100m. If copper/zinc prices average anywhere near current levels next year this will be bettered again.
Prominent Hill is a monster and will roughly double current production and net profit. I do not think the market has digested the scale and economy of prominent Hill.

This week - 20th July the latest quarterly figures come out. I have a strong feelling that their will be a big resource upgrade at Thengkham North where they have had a very busy drilling program.
Unless there is disapointing figures (unlikely) in this quarterly I expect the share price to receive a big boost by the end of the week.

End of August - Prominent Hill feasability study released.

End of Sept - Half year financials should give the first indications of a big profit for year.

The next 2 months are an exciting time for oxiana. I expect the share price to over $4 by the end of Sept.

Cheers
T.

I've been tracking OXR for about the last 2 years, and I'm still kicking myself for not buying when they were $1. Just the same I've got on board recently, so it's nice to read your commendation.

Regards, YN.

 

[nizar]

Corporately, Hegarty said the company was "not in any conversations about being acquired".

Shares in Oxiana were up 15c (4.8%) at $3.26 in midday trade.[/I]

Interesting read

I think if OXR were to be taken over; it wouldve happened when the share price was around $2.50 about a month ago...

It may still happen though, of course

The way i see things; if OXR is not taken over; it will be a $10billion company by 2008 when PH starts production; thats $7.70 per share

 

[nizar]

It will be an interesting time

Oxiana is already a bit overvalued campared to the other Aussie goldies

Nice one; CBH is a great stock

I dont know what makes u think OXR is overvalued compared to say; LHG; maybe u should look at per share earnings; maybe that will reveal a bit more than the charts...

 

[clowboy]

Nizar,

What is your per share earnings for OXR?

Thanx

 

[michael_selway]

Nizar,

What is your per share earnings for OXR?

Thanx

Previous Close 52 week high 52 week low
3.11 3.82 0.92
P/E Ratio
14.39
Sector
Materials
Market Capital
$4,291 million

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 5.6 34.7 26.5 25.5
DPS 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.5

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-12-06 34.7 9.0 521.9%
Year Ending 30-12-07 26.5 11.7 -23.6%

thx

MS

 

[nizar]

Nizar,

What is your per share earnings for OXR?

Thanx

I reckon 38cps for FY2006

The consensus earnings (as posted by MS) is now pretty close at 34.7cps; as this has been upgraded several times in the last few months as i remember it being in the 20s

 

[noirua]

Oxiana's Quarterly Radio Report from Mr Owen Hegarty, MD, who appears very upbeat: http://www.brr.com.au/event/OXR/1054/12531

 

[Rafa]

MARKET TALK:ML Lumps Oxiana, Ainsworth, Nylex Among Trash 21/07/06 13:02:00


1302 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Merrill Lynch HK-based analyst Spencer White, convinced Asian equity markets are going to re-test lows, says now is the time to sort and sift "through the trash". Among this group of 10 that White says are "the most toxic looking" are three Australian stocks: Oxiana (OXR.AU), Ainsworth Gaming (AGI.AU), and Nylex (NLX.AU). Advises "stick with the quality" for next 6 months, including local retailer Woolworths (WOW.AU). (IGP)

Contact us in Sydney. 61 2 8235 2950;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com

 

[Rafa]

MARKET TALK: Merrill Lynch Lifts Oxiana Holding 21/07/06 14:25:00


1425 [Dow Jones] No sooner than Merrill Lynch HK-based analyst Spencer White urges investors to sort, sift "through the trash," specifically citing Oxiana
(OXR.AU) among "the most toxic looking" of Australian stocks, than shareholder
notice pops up from Merrill Lynch Australia, on behalf of various ML units,
advising of lift in holding to 172.6 million shares representing 12.50% of OXR
from 151.86 million shares or 11.07% previously. OXR down 3.4% at A$3.17 on
trading of 4.6 million shares. (RCB)


WHAT THE HECK IS GOING ON!!!

 

[nizar]

Rafa

What is going on is what always happens

Brokers talk down a stock; it becomes cheap; and they pick up a few

I wouldnt be suprised if Merril Lynch upgraded its recommendation on OXR in the next few weeks leading upto August 25th half-yearly

Remember; every1 in this world is out to make money FOR THEMSELVES

I recall somebody asked me a few months ago in May when commodities were going down: "Marc Faber doesnt know what hes talking about. 2 weeks ago he said Commodities would fall by 30%, and now hes saying we're only at the beginning of a super-cycle (by that time they had somewhat recovered)

I said: "No, he knows exactly what hes talking about. He probably made millions these last 2 weeks"

 

[snapper_man]

A couple more points about Oxiana.
Oxiana will always track the long/med term expectation price of Copper and zinc as much as the all ords. Current price indicators provide a barometer for sentiment about longer term prices but that is about it. If anybody has a crystal ball out there I would like to borrow it.
I have been spending a fair bit of time lately looking at metal analysts reports. I am amazed how quickly sentiment fluctuates. Quite often as a reaction to current prices.
Oxiana has been focusing on a couple of great projects recently. Prominent Hill is a monster and is certainly underpriced currently to OXR - look out when the report comes out. The Sepon Copper expansion is interesting - basically doubling sepon output from 60K to 110K+. This expansion seems to be underpinned by drilling and an expansion of the resource at Thengkham. No real news in the latest quarterly about this. But I expect some news at some stage this year possibly in the half year financials.

Cheers
T.

 

[coyotte]

With the US Building in recesion and monertry tighting world wide , one would presume that the demand for base metals must decline
copper Sept Fut held support @ 233 on Friday -- would presume that failure to rally above 233 would spell the end for OXR -- short to med term

China & India may be forging ahead , but can they make up the shortfall if US & EU are removed

Love the stock-- but know when a leave of absence is required --- YOU CAN ALLWAYS JUMP BACK IN


Cheers

 

[nizar]

With the US Building in recesion and monertry tighting world wide , one would presume that the demand for base metals must decline
copper Sept Fut held support @ 233 on Friday -- would presume that failure to rally above 233 would spell the end for OXR -- short to med term

China & India may be forging ahead , but can they make up the shortfall if US & EU are removed

Love the stock-- but know when a leave of absence is required --- YOU CAN ALLWAYS JUMP BACK IN


Cheers

Brother i hate to break it to you but the slowdown in US housing did not begin overnight but in fact since the beginning of the year; and the US has been raising interest rates for the last 1.5 years... but where has the OXR share price gone during this time?? Hmmm....

Gold will shoot up in the 2nd half and that LME zinc stockpile isnt getting any larger.... People when they talk about OXR they talk copper and gold copper and gold; the forget about ZINC; which will perhaps become its most PROFITABLE commodity as we get nearer to 2007....

And dont forget PH BFS almost done and the half year financials i suspect will show NPAT of us$200-220million; and that will have analysts all upgrading their forecasts and recommendations

But good luck to you; u may well be right and u have good points; but for me (because of the above mentioned reasons) just before reporting season is not the ideal time to be selling OXR....