Out of the banks and into the...?

[mr. jeff]

I'm definitely keen to see what others think, whether its a likely movement or not...or for starters if my plotting of the lines is even correct.

I might have bit of a read up on EW and see if I like it.

The rats are fleeing and this is capitulation.
Very significant double down day.
I'm short and the profits are flowing.

 

[DJG]

The rats are fleeing and this is capitulation.
Very significant double down day.
I'm short and the profits are flowing.

Awesome stuff mate!
Do you go short through CFD's?

 

[beachlife]

Maybe it's just the usual reaction to ANZ & WBC going ex div, with a USA drop adding fuel to it, and NAB going ex div next week. It can be fun trading pre and post ex div dates. Have a look at the how the prices ran up a week or so before ex div dates, especially anz. Have a look at what anz did after ex div in May last year compared to wbc. Is it over? The charts will tell in due course.

 

[tinhat]

CBA is still in uptrend on my reading of the charts. It will be interesting to see if the price remains above $67. If it does it will remain in uptrend. One of the best decisions I made a couple of years ago when a lot of people were making the flight to cash was to buy bank shares instead. A big chunk of the portfolio is bank shares paying 10% grossed up yield. If share prices fall because foreign hot money is flowing out due to the falling AUD / easing of QE, I see this as a great opportunity for local investors and fund managers to buy.

My only real concern for the Aussie economy right now is that we don't overheat the housing market which would be very easy to do given that it hasn't deflated much from the last bubble.

Perhaps this year the market will just move sideways between May and October rather than down! That would be a nice change.

 

[mr. jeff]

CBA is still in uptrend on my reading of the charts. It will be interesting to see if the price remains above $67. If it does it will remain in uptrend. One of the best decisions I made a couple of years ago when a lot of people were making the flight to cash was to buy bank shares instead. A big chunk of the portfolio is bank shares paying 10% grossed up yield. If share prices fall because foreign hot money is flowing out due to the falling AUD / easing of QE, I see this as a great opportunity for local investors and fund managers to buy.

My only real concern for the Aussie economy right now is that we don't overheat the housing market which would be very easy to do given that it hasn't deflated much from the last bubble.

Perhaps this year the market will just move sideways between May and October rather than down! That would be a nice change.

Just saw a CBA ad on a bus stop saying "Looking at investment property - why stop at one?"
That has got to be the signal of danger! I had to do a double take after all the GFC washout.

I don't know how to read point and figures but can see a basic uptrend in yours Tinhat; but -
When I look at a bar chart, I still see a break from trend. May see an attempt to get back in the zone short term.



Still have a short on and looking for 67. Sorry the lower line on the crappy chart I have cut off.

 

[mr. jeff]

Awesome stuff mate!
Do you go short through CFD's?

Yes the only way for discretionaries to borrow stock as far as I know.

 

[DJG]

Yes the only way for discretionaries to borrow stock as far as I know.

Mind me asking which broker?

 

[mr. jeff]

Just saw a CBA ad on a bus stop saying "Looking at investment property - why stop at one?"
That has got to be the signal of danger! I had to do a double take after all the GFC washout.

I don't know how to read point and figures but can see a basic uptrend in yours Tinhat; but -
When I look at a bar chart, I still see a break from trend. May see an attempt to get back in the zone short term.

View attachment 52445

Still have a short on and looking for 67. Sorry the lower line on the crappy chart I have cut off.

CBA has returned to support at 67.00
Can others see a catalyst for a push below these levels - is the yield-chasing money going to keep being pulled ?

 

[tech/a]

I think I have only ever seen EW called before the fact once or twice, by Boggo. Most other EW practitioners seems to enjoy fitting waves and counts to historical data, but not actually forward trading anything

Prawn

I dont think you could ask for better than this forward calling
6 mths prior!

I find Elliott a great anticipator.
Most dont understand how to apply it in its continuing dynamics.
once you get your head around this its very powerful.--in my view.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&page=461

Specifically posts.
9054
9067
9100
9124
9169

 

[Porper]

I think I have only ever seen EW called before the fact once or twice, by Boggo. Most other EW practitioners seems to enjoy fitting waves and counts to historical data, but not actually forward trading anything

Maybe you are looking in the wrong places.

There is simply no point in labelling a chart in hindsight (yes I know that's obvious)...but some do.

However you have to label past waves to project the next wave. That's how the theory works.