OSH - Oil Search

[legs]

Yes, probably has something to do with its strong rise in SP today but how do you explain it going from a low of $3.87 last week (8/6/07) to coming back over $4.00 yesterday in a falling market and POO?
I think it shows the strength of OSH

Cheers

Just great T/A from some great readers of the market.lol..
tooo funny
but maybe right??
I did really think it was a great entry point. As said in my charts and I agreed totally with you.

 

[theasxgorilla]

$4.15/.16 is probably to be expected as a bit of a resistance zone. In any case its nice to see OSH bucking the trend of general weakness on the XAO (for now).

 

[The Mint Man]

Another good day for OSH with yet another gap up, this time it was 1.5% on yesterday. Closing at $4.25.
Only a week ago you could have got in at $3.87, thats a 10% gain in 4 days(monday was a public holiday) not too shabby in anyones book I would imagine!
It will be interesting to see what the POO does over the weekend, if it goes up you have most likely missed the boat on this one. There should also be a couple of wells completed over the next few weeks too, good news on them is always welcome.
We are really not that far off its highs considering how quickly it has got to where it is today.

Would anyone care to speculate on where this could end up? TA provided of course to keep the mods happy

Cheers

 

[theasxgorilla]

$4.25 is another fairly logical resistance level and a fitting place for OSH to end the week. Where will it go from here? Lets say that its looking less and less like an Elliott wave-B with each passing day. And as I've said before, no point letting a wave count get in the way of a perfectly good trade.

 

[The Mint Man]

$4.25 is another fairly logical resistance level and a fitting place for OSH to end the week. Where will it go from here? Lets say that its looking less and less like an Elliott wave-B with each passing day. And as I've said before, no point letting a wave count get in the way of a perfectly good trade.

Well gaped up again to $4.27 from support/resistance level $4.25.... Now sitting at $4.30!
Would $4.30 be considered a resistance level? Just looking at the chart it would appear so (see between Jun-Aug 2006). Feel free to post your thoughts.
Resistance/support at $4.30

First time I've done this, what do you recon?

Cheers

 

[Sean K]

Well gaped up again to $4.27 from support/resistance level $4.25.... Now sitting at $4.30!
Would $4.30 be considered a resistance level? Just looking at the chart it would appear so (see between Jun-Aug 2006). Feel free to post your thoughts.
Resistance/support at $4.30

First time I've done this, what do you recon?

Cheers

I thought around $4.25 was the resistance, but somewhere between there and $4.30 is about right. Gapping up over $4.25 was pretty positive IMO. Still, might drop back, it's had a pretty solid run the past few months.

Your chart looks a little different to mine for some reason. This is a 3yr weekly.

I'd expect support to be somewhere between $4.00 and $3.75 during any pullback now. Hard for me to pin down an exact level. Maybe $4.00 I suppose, and greater support at $3.75.

 

[The Mint Man]

Good to see OSH move up today... it has just been hovering around lately. I was starting to wonder what the G-O was!!!
I mean we watched OSH hover, mean whlie POO went - $70.5, $71, $71.5 etc. and now its at $72.80
Do you think this is just a consolidation period for OSH? Good buying if you got in on Friday or even today IMO

Cheers

 

[The Mint Man]

Good to see OSH move up today... it has just been hovering around lately. I was starting to wonder what the G-O was!!!
I mean we watched OSH hover, mean whlie POO went - $70.5, $71, $71.5 etc. and now its at $72.80
Do you think this is just a consolidation period for OSH? Good buying if you got in on Friday or even today IMO

Cheers

Well POO is $73.89 and the situation is still the same as I mentioned above Its gone up another $1 since I last posted.... its almost $74 for crying out loud!

Anyone got a clue???

 

[Sean K]

Well POO is $73.89 and the situation is still the same as I mentioned above Its gone up another $1 since I last posted.... its almost $74 for crying out loud!

Anyone got a clue???

MM, I think there's many factors to consider. OSH has had a great run, and maybe future POO gains have been factored in. Chart wise, looks just like healthy consolidation to me. This is a long term baby. Nothing speccie about it and we shouldn't be expecting big % gains by the day. $4.10 looks to be forming great support which is all good. A break though $4.30 will release it for further steady gains. Hold on to your hat.

 

[The Mint Man]

I understand all that and thought much along the same lines.... just felt like having a rant

Cheers

 

[Sean K]

$4.10 looks to be forming great support which is all good. A break though $4.30 will release it for further steady gains. Hold on to your hat.

Bumping it's head up against $4.30 MM. $4.10 was good. POO going gang busters is obviously a good thing but not sure how much is left to run. Getting up closer to $80 will be bad for everyone I think too, so maybe we should be happy with a POO around $75 and OSH having some drilling success, or earnings ++ acquisitions!

 

[The Mint Man]

Yeh, good day today up 3.5% (15c) to $4.35. Will be interesting to see what happens to end the week tomorrow, followed by the POO over the weekend.

Cheers

 

[clowboy]

On a fundemental lvl what does the AUD/USD fluctuation do to the profits of this company?

They are based in the us? So I assume that the fluctuation does nothing to there earning capacity but when the profits are converted back to AUD it is worth less (than what it was with a lower AUD dollar).

Thanx

 

[Bush Trader]

Why no comments about the 5% fall today after Qtrly numbers?

I would be interested in your thoughts

was this a case of "buy the rumour sell the fact" as Kennas is so fond of stating.


I've held this puppy for a long, long time.


Cheers


BT

 

[The Mint Man]

Why no comments about the 5% fall today after Qtrly numbers?
BT

I would like to hear other comments on this too.... But for me, it dosn't matter really, Im a long term holder on this one.

I dont think the numbers are that bad and I wouldnt be supprised to see it come back up a little tomorrow. You have to remember that they have had a great run lately, Im up around 30% in 8 months.

IMO it wont be long until its back up around the $4.30s, they are a strong company in a good position for growth.

Cheers

 

[theasxgorilla]

We should probably look for the tell-tale signs of smart money accumulating on weakness. If they don't appear we can only presume its a dumb idea to still be in this one

 

[explod]

We should probably look for the tell-tale signs of smart money accumulating on weakness. If they don't appear we can only presume its a dumb idea to still be in this one

I think the smart money got in yesterday on the weakness. There were some very large buys among the 23 million shares traded yesterday and every attempt to reach towards $4.00 was met with a wall of buying. Again today on much lower volume, weakness is met with buying. If there was uncertainty at all, selling would have re-commenced today below $4.00.

The old "buy on weakness, sell on fact" is created by above expectations. The report of Oil Search yesterday was not as bad as interpreted and the missdelivery will be a positive reflection in the next quarter. Yesterday was a great opportunity for me. A contract to supply Japan with LPG will be the next major event and will make the current price a bargain indeed. IMHO

 

[Bush Trader]

This article releates to the broker reviews on OSH's numbers yesterday, it may be of interest

Cheers

BT


Oil Search Now A Reserves Story
Source: FN Arena News - July 25 2007

By Chris Shaw

In production terms the quarterly result from Oil Search (OSH) contained little in the way of good news according to ABN Amro, as production guidance for the year has been cut by around 10%.

This has led to a flurry of earnings downgrades for the stock but not a single rating change, as Credit Suisse points out the company is now a reserve play rather than an earnings story given the potential development of an LNG project in Papua New Guinea to take advantage of the company’s more than one billion barrels of oil equivalent gas reserves.
Looking at the earnings adjustments, Credit Suisse has cut its earnings per share forecasts for FY07 by 15% to 19c and in FY098 by 6% to 18c, while ABN Amro’s estimates now stand at 21.5c and 16.3c respectively and JP Morgan’s at 15.2c and 15.5c.

This shows the market is now in line with management’s guidance of flat output through FY08, before an increase of around 10-15% in FY09. JP Morgan suggests this new guidance is disappointing but is really only a deferral of production rather than lost production, so it doesn’t change the fundamental story.

Credit Suisse remains cautious as it sees some risk to this uplift in output coming through, while suggesting any share price weakness resulting from the production report would offer an opportunity for investors to position themselves for the longer-term story.
It could be a while before the potential gas to LNG project partner Exxon appears to be suggesting materialises, so ABN Amro sees the stock as a 12-18 month re-rating story. It also notes exploration success in Egypt appears to offer some chance for the company to diversify its reserves, but again points out it will require investors to be patient in waiting for results to flow through into share price appreciation.

This appreciation could eventually be substantial as Credit Suisse estimates the LNG project could be worth as much as $1.00 per share over the longer-term. Macquarie also sees it as the main share price driver, which is enough for the broker to maintain its positive rating.

Overall the FNArena database shows the stock is rated as Buy six times, Hold twice and Reduce once, with an average price target of $4.61. This compares to the median price target according to Thomson One Analytics of $4.42.

With the market down heavily this morning shares in Oil Search are weaker and at $11.55am were trading 14c lower at $3.98.

 

[The Mint Man]

JP Morgan suggests this new guidance is disappointing but is really only a deferral of production rather than lost production, so it doesn’t change the fundamental story.

Totally agree, this is why Im not too worried. Im long on this one, the plan was always to wait until 2010.

This appreciation could eventually be substantial as Credit Suisse estimates the LNG project could be worth as much as $1.00 per share over the longer-term. Macquarie also sees it as the main share price driver, which is enough for the broker to maintain its positive rating.

Sounds good to me.

good info

Cheers

 

[The Mint Man]

Well at $3.41 its almost $1 off its high before the market started heading south.
Can anyone say over-reaction?

Cheers