OSH - Oil Search

[The Mint Man]

Anyone else watching OSH? Up another 5%.
Closed at $4.63 today with a high of $4.66. That would have to be close to, if not an all time high I think.
See pic:

I know that POO is high but the price has droped off over the last couple of days.
Also OSH has a few drills that will be reaching TD over the next couple of weeks, both gas and oil.

Cheers

 

[The Mint Man]

OSH up another 5% this morning hitting a new high (yet again) of $4.76.
Could anyone else tell me where they see OSH going to next?
Not too far off the $5.00 mark now and with its recent surge upwards due to takeover talk and the strong POO, I personally think that it can get there and beyond.
OSH also have a few holes that I would imagine will reach their targets soon so santa might just put a few extra bucks in our pockets yet.

Cheers

 

[The Mint Man]

Yet another cracking day for OSH on the back of POO, up 4.5% to $4.80.
I'm very happy with the way this stock has performed over the last year or so since I bought them, they are up 47% since then!!!
I wouldn't be surprised if they were to hit the $5 mark soon.
Anyone care to put their in to maybe balance my bias out then again who can blame me for being bias, OSH has been a strong performer.

Anyway I would be interested in others views on this one both good and bad.

Cheers

 

[The Mint Man]

OSH finished up @ $4.72 on a day where our market is down 22 points, oil is down to $88 and other companies like WPL are down. I would have expected OSH to follow, however it went up 2.6%. Quite against the trend!

Anyone have any idea why OSH had a fairly good day considering the above?

One would imagine that oil will end up heading north again and if this starts tomorrow then todays movements has given OSH a good leg up.

Your thoughts would be much appreciated.

Cheers

 

[coolcricket]

Hi The Mint Man,
I have a few Oil Search shares. I was pleasantly suprised by the upward move today. It has been jumping around a little bit in recent times. Should be interesting to see how the OPEC meeting affects OSH. Fingers crossed for no increase in oil supply (I think I am right in pressuming this last bit, relativly new to investing).

But to the point, I would also be interested in other's opinions as to why OSH had the positive move today...

 

[ithatheekret]

I think OSH is one of the better plays for oil since they took up the Chevron capacity over there . I bet STO board is kicking itself for not notching up the last bid , when they demanded $2 .I sold the last time it hit $4.00 even , but haven't taken my eyes off it . It is still a predators dream , but they always want it at a discount and claim to be paying a market premium .

 

[The Mint Man]

Another good day for OSH on the back of a strong rise in POO over night. Hit $4.87 today which made it exactly 50% gain for me in a little over a year not bad

$5.00 here we come

Cheers

 

[The Mint Man]

Well just like the last correction we had a little while back, which saw OSH drop to $3.20 and then back up to $4.40 in a month , OSH is doing it again today, coming back hard that is!!!
Having a fantastic run today, currently up over 5.5%. Surely this can't simply be because of a 2% rise in POO over the weekend.
Look at other similar stocks in the sector and see how they are doing today - WPL up 1.89%, STO up 1.55%...etc. OSH is way ahead ATM.

I think the takeover talk is still ringing in investors ears China wants it and guess who's got it

Your thoughts guys???

Cheers

 

[The Mint Man]

To back up what I'm saying just check out these charts I prepared earlier The RED line I have inserted into the charts is where these stocks are currently sitting. And as you will see OSH has been coming back strong, not just this time either!!!


If anything this post may be pointing out a good buying opp for the other 2 stocks.

By the way OSH is up to 6% since I last posted

EDIT: some big orders droping in too, check out the 2 buys at $4.78


Cheers

 

[xabialonso]

Did everybody cash in their profits and stop following this share?

A pull back today after some serious gains - is anyone still on this train and do they share my sentiments that this pull back today is an anomaly and the trend is still very much upwards?

X.

 

[urbanmike]

Did everybody cash in their profits and stop following this share?

A pull back today after some serious gains - is anyone still on this train and do they share my sentiments that this pull back today is an anomaly and the trend is still very much upwards?

X.

Absolutely I feel there is still a fair way up for this stock. When oil price heads over $135 there will be a new push up.

 

[Sean K]

I've been out of this one for some time after been a long time holder since 2004 ish. It's back on the close watch list once the dust settles on the economies and oil demand looks more favourable.

Some others seem to have it on the watch list, or have quite a stake and need to ramp it.

0909 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Oil Search (OSH.AU) price target raised to A$9.09 from A$7.09 by Merrill Lynch following analysis of uncommercialized Papua New Guinea gas reserves. Notes company's low-risk tangible assets, visible near-term price catalysts, strong balance sheet, compelling valuation. Says shares have potential to be re-rated by as much as 100% when AGL (AGK.AU) makes announcement about sale of stake in PNG LNG project, expected in next two-to-four weeks. Adds, cannot rule out possibility Oil Search may be a takeover target. "Under a bid scenario, we believe that OSH shares could be worth north of A$13.80," Merrill says. OSH last at A$3.82. (RRK)


Perhaps $3.00 ish will hold....

 

[jackson8]

have notice agk have announced sale of png assets .

both osh and sto have jumped up over 10 percent in early trade.

any ideas as to who may be the successfull bidder and what affect it will have on osh if it was not them.

 

[AnDy62]

Sorry a bit late, but have a look at:

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=504A1169-1871-E587-E18621547A5978A3

Disclosure: I hold OSH.

 

[Sean K]

Another very positive report for OSH.

Merrills upgrades Oil Search
November 13, 2008
Article from: The Australian

MERRILL Lynch has gone against the trend and upgraded the price target of a resources stock.

A recent site visit to Oil Search’s PNG operations left a big impression on analyst Mark Hume, who sent out a report titled “A $US20bn Company In The Making” that said the PNG LNG project looks firmly on track.

Merrills boosted Oil Search’s price target from $9.09 to $9.65, which is better than it looks on the surface given what plummeting oil price assumptions would have done to valuations.

Oil Search was recently trading at $4.76, giving it a market value of $5.3 billion, meaning Merrills thinks there’s a lot more upside to come beyond $9.65 as the LNG project ramps up.

 

[jackson8]

Another very positive report for OSH.

Merrills upgrades Oil Search
November 13, 2008
Article from: The Australian

MERRILL Lynch has gone against the trend and upgraded the price target of a resources stock.

A recent site visit to Oil Search’s PNG operations left a big impression on analyst Mark Hume, who sent out a report titled “A $US20bn Company In The Making” that said the PNG LNG project looks firmly on track.

Merrills boosted Oil Search’s price target from $9.09 to $9.65, which is better than it looks on the surface given what plummeting oil price assumptions would have done to valuations.

Oil Search was recently trading at $4.76, giving it a market value of $5.3 billion, meaning Merrills thinks there’s a lot more upside to come beyond $9.65 as the LNG project ramps up.

do you feel a capital raising comeing on
the price of oil is very low and who knows how much further it will go

 

[Sean K]

do you feel a capital raising comeing on
the price of oil is very low and who knows how much further it will go

Need to check there balance sheet and last anns to get the answer jackson.

This one just recently:

SIGNING OF NEW FIVE YEAR CREDIT FACILITY
23 October 2008

Oil Search is pleased to announce that its wholly owned subsidiary, Oil Search (PNG) Ltd, has today signed documentation with a banking syndicate comprising 16 banks for a US$435 million five year revolving credit facility, secured against cash flows from the Company’s PNG oil assets.

The pricing and other key terms offered on the new facility represent an improvement on the Company’s previous facility, with almost half of the facility amount provided without recourse to political risk insurance. The facility will be used primarily to support Oil Search’s equity funding for PNG LNG Project development costs.

Commenting on the new facility, Oil Search’s Managing Director Peter Botten said:

“We are delighted to have completed this transaction in the current difficult financial environment. The terms offered and the strength of the banking syndicate, which includes all four major domestic as well as international banks, highlights the attractiveness of PNG as a place to invest and demonstrates our good banking relationships, which have been built up over the last 15 years. I would like to thank the banks for their continued support.

Despite the recent upheaval in world financial markets, there was no revision during the documentation phase to the pricing accepted at the time of syndication. In addition, the facility of US$435 million is higher than the original commitment sought of US$400 million, due to strong participation from the banking community. Together with our already strong balance sheet, this places Oil Search in an excellent position to fund its share of PNG LNG Project capital costs.”

Peter Botten, CBE
Managing Director
OIL SEARCH LIMITED

 

[Shrewd Crude]

kennas,
this PNG LNG is going to be incredibly big world class project and all the big boys are involved... Oil Search are calling it a legacy project.... PNG LNG is going to triple current OSH revenues, but production is still 5 years off....
theres a couple of small oilers around with big leverage in this project, like MOS, CUE, HZN has a project going into production next year...
OSH seem to be stepping it up a gear...
This will perform over a 5 year period, my favourite large tiered ASX oil stock...
abit of soverign risk, but all will be ok because this project is set to double GDP for PNG...

.^sc

 

[jackson8]

i think it would be wise to say that nothing is written in concrete
when i look at some of the once were darlings such as aed and nxs it makes me realise that a fall from grace can happen very quickly , all it takes is one peice of bad news and not necessarily bad but unnerving for investors to flee in droves especially with present market conditions

i currently do hold some osh but what worries me are a few factors
1) the price of oil . what would be their bottom line before production costs are greater than returns.
2) declineing oilfeilds they hope to start lng production to pick up from the tail end of these and if production is delayed which lets face it happens all the time then cash flow could be affected
3) just the time period for this 5 years out , a lot can happen over that time frame

osh has seen a rapid growth in sp over last few years and i wonder if it is justified to continue that growth in the short to medium term given current circumstances

i dont want to be thought of as downramping but the share market can be very unforgiving at times

 

[Sean K]

i think it would be wise to say that nothing is written in concrete when i look at some of the once were darlings such as aed and nxs it makes me realise that a fall from grace can happen very quickly , all it takes is one peice of bad news and not necessarily bad but unnerving for investors to flee in droves especially with present market conditions

i currently do hold some osh but what worries me are a few factors
1) the price of oil . what would be their bottom line before production costs are greater than returns.
2) declineing oilfeilds they hope to start lng production to pick up from the tail end of these and if production is delayed which lets face it happens all the time then cash flow could be affected
3) just the time period for this 5 years out , a lot can happen over that time frame

osh has seen a rapid growth in sp over last few years and i wonder if it is justified to continue that growth in the short to medium term given current circumstances

i dont want to be thought of as downramping but the share market can be very unforgiving at times

Some good points there jackson.

And saying negative things about a stock with some analysis is quite welcome here.

I first bought this about 80c in 2003 and it was a handy return over time, so I have some emotional baggage with the stock.

I've been keeping my eye closely on it for a reentry, and I reckon it's close to as good an opportunity as any considering the potential growth profile.

Couldn't rule out a takeover could you? Maybe the PNG holding counts that out...

Nice summary from their last presentation...

**Oil Search has delivered sustained top quartile growth
over past five years (53% annualised return)
**Delivery of PNG LNG Project over next four years,
together with progressive development of 2nd and 3rd tier
gas, has potential to multiply Company value over this
period
**PNG LNG – The Premier AsiaPac LNG Project:
**(On track to deliver FID towards end 2009, with first LNG in
late 2013/early 2014
**Thirty+ year legacy project, with capacity to triple OSH
production. Also positively impacts oil field life, value and
reserves
**Current share price discounts assessed PNG LNG value
and reflects no value for further gas developments or
exploration