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Interesting.A big market collapse and $20 oil make the list of Nomura's 'grey swan' predictions for 2019
A big market collapse and $20 oil make the list of Nomura's 'grey swan' predictions for 2019
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/11/a-b...f-nomuras-grey-swan-predictions-for-2019.html
- A team of currency, fixed income and economic analysts at Nomura came up with a list of so-called grey swans for clients.
- These close cousins of black swans are foreseeable risk events that end up having a much more drastic impact than expected, Nomura says.
I can come up with plausible (though that doesn’t mean probable) scenarios for $25 but not $20 for the reasons I’ve mentioned.I can find no reason or substantiation for their view of $20.
I shouldn't be here (problems with concussion), but I need to say this. I posted this quickly yesterday morning and for the life of me I can find no reason or substantiation for their view of $20. If we want to talk about bloody swans.....I have a lake full of black swans way down the end of the High Street where I live. Bit far for me to walk...would need a tram. Can't take m' LittleDog on a tram. I don't give a toss if it is some fancy band of young turks or a little rapa (latin for turnip) who says something. Give me bloody substantiation!
I saw someone who sounded "expert" on CBS or whatever saying the S+P500 was in a head and shoulders with a death star or cross or whatever. I looked at it and it looked like it was heading toward a sideways consolidation. However at least they gave me their reasoning with a chart, which was admirable.
I can come up with plausible (though that doesn’t mean probable) scenarios for $25 but not $20 for the reasons I’ve mentioned.
At $20 oil would be the cheapest fuel around and physical consumption would rise significantly and do so quickly.
@Ann thanks for apology - the post was out of character for you, lets put that one down to concussion.
Response
I didn't respond to your earlier post but I was tempted but thought better of it...
The saying goes, "If you don't have something nice to say, don't say anything at all."
Journalist make stuff up
There is a high demand for financial news & unfortunately some journalist make stuff up.
Skate.
I would have thought at $20 it just wouldn't be worth pulling out of the ground Smurf, except for the massive amount of underground tanks I imagine are buried or in peoples sheds. You know, the stuff they are currently calling 'shale oil' aka spek quantities hoarded by the Preppers. No doubt they can see the writing on the shed wall....EVs....phone home!
G'day Skate may I say very catagorically and emphatically that was absolutely no apology from me and had no relation to my concussion. I was intending to go to a financial lecture and had to leave quickly and early. I put up an alternative view of the silly high levels suggested by others on this thread with a news release. Later on my return home I decided to look deeper to see on what basis they suggested that particular level as there was nothing on my charts that suggested that price as either a support or a resistance. On my recent post I was simply stating yet again I was seeing an unsubstantiated price level and again I was stating unless a particular price can be substantiated with either a chart, fundamentals, tea leaves, rumours from Aunty Shirley, or some gypsy palm reading don't bloody put it up onto a forum with no basis. Hope you manage to understand what I am trying to say. I am not chucking a hissy-fit, having a melt-down or the female vapours. I just would like any price by anyone substantiated....not angry, see...smiling
Anything below the mid-50's starts making it not worthwhile depending on the oil field in question.I would have thought at $20 it just wouldn't be worth pulling out of the ground Smurf
Come and tell that to Turnip Top Skate! I endeavour to post here with integrity.
I did say "endeavour" sometimes I fail a touch....sorry Sdajii no excuse for name calling!Come and tell that to Turnip Top Skate! I endeavour to post here with integrity.
Come and tell that to Turnip Top Skate! I endeavour to post here with integrity.
Come and tell that to Turnip Top Skate! I endeavour to post here with integrity.
Hi @Ann
Clarification is needed
1. "Come and tell that to Turnip Top Skate!"
I don't understand what you are saying with this comment..
2. "I endeavour to post here with integrity"
True and you prosecute your case well (most times) - that's a given but your post in this thread (#1941) was out of character for you - as I stated in my post (#1945)
Comments are always welcome SkateIf I could make a few additional comments..
Misinformation
I am very aware of this Skate. In fact all outlets from any source, not just journalists can be full of fabrications, even respected bodies of education, governement and sciences are rife with biased and misleading information. It is a minefield or half truths and mis-thruths. It takes a lot of focus to see the difference between information and propaganda.There is so much misinformation & fanciful stories on the internet, remembering journalists make most stuff up - I want to draw your attention to this fact as some investors will make financial decisions on what they read.
Integrity
I take this point Skate and try to be responsible whenever I post something. Generally I have the time to vet information and links carefully and make a decision if it is reasonable information or just junk. That is why I wanted to re-visit that $20 article on my return home and made further opined comments.When forum members with integrity post articles or hyperlinks it gives those article more weight than sometimes they deserve.
Reference
As a reference - your comment in the thread [PO3 - Purifloh Limited - post(#11)] "In my own opinion this appears to be deception by suggestion"
Hyperlinks
Any hyperlink I add is not meant as an endorsement or proof of point, merely why, where and what is my point of reference. This is important as it gives the reader the opportunity to see where the information was derived and judge for themselves the merit of anything I may say. Any comment or opinion should be fairly scrutinized by others in my opinion. That can only be healthy.Hyperlinking to an article without clarification sometimes deceives the reader because they perceive (it's their perception & I'm not implying your intent) that you endorse the article.
Quantity versus Quality
I am sure we all have our favourite posters and subjects and that is how I see a living vibrant community, Joe has achieved a remarkable forum by tending the tiller with a very deft hand.Some forum members (posters) go for quantity over the quality of their post and I tend to enjoy reading the latter.
In your own words
Exactly and that was my reason to re-visit the post to make sure there was proper substantiation, when there wasn't I felt it behooved me to make sure to all it was not of any value for the forum, as I have said more than once now, the only reason it was there was not to make mischief but to save it for proper scrutiny. It may have had some interesting and valuable insights but the time I had available was not there at the fist instance and on my return home it would not have been possible to find as the news articles are gone after a number of articles.1. You gave yourself good advice "don't bloody put it up onto a forum with no basis"
Forum members
I totally concure with you Skate, and I will also extend it further to add the style and implication of responses also can appear slightly less than civil. However that can be quite a tricky thing on a forum where the reader adds their own accentuation and interpretation to comments and phrases. For example me using the term Turnip Top was said with affection to Sdajii but you had no idea what I was talking about and to Sdajii it may have sounded like a jeer, hence I felt in an immediate post I put up I needed to clarify how rude I appeared and gave Sdajii my appology. Gosh I hope this is all making sense, I am dyslexic and struggling trying to read what I am saying!All forum members should prosecute their case forcefully with conviction & civility - members would be well served to remember to meter their responses "If you don't have something nice to say, don't say anything at all."
Ideas
ASF as the name suggest is a Stock Forum but @Joe Blow has kindly allowed the forum to incorporate a discussion of ideas.
Skate.
Skate, the reference Turnip Top was in reference to Sadjii's Avatar, he has a Turnip but directly after my post I apologised to Sdajii as it sounded as though I was being rude to him in the re-reading, so I added an appology to him which you may have missed. He is constantly calling out unsubstiantiated comments about massive high price levels of oil in an adament, unequivocal way with no substantiating facts or reason behind the very high price level.
I learned long ago that when discussing the future "will" is a word that is almost never appropriate.
We're dealing with possible outcomes here not certainties. Sure, some are more likely than others but nobody's able to be certain about the future price unless they're in a credible position to manipulate the market. There are few such people and those who are likely won't be posting the details of their plans here.
If things are sufficiently certain, or the context is appropriate, the word 'will' is often fine when talking about the future. You certainly wouldn't tell your girlfriend you might take her out for dinner tomorrow night or that it's a possibility you'll remember her birthday. The sun will come up tomorrow, we will see the market do some interesting things over the next 12 months, people on this forum will argue and bicker, I will piss people off, people will be irrational and stupid...
Sorry duc, I have to do this...you have made it too tempting for me.However, when talking about the POO, 'will' is not appropriate, as you cannot control its price or anything else relevant to oil. You use an example that has no relevance to the issue, viz dinner/girlfriend.
Possibly English is not your first language, in which case the error is understandable.
jog on
duc
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