Oil price discussion and analysis

[Sdajii]

You can't just pretend that I meant to imply that oil would never drop below $50 even though I've multiple times, starting from months ago, said it might and my rough guess was $52 several months out. Do you honestly think that anyone would say oil was going to drop a massive amount to an exact figure of $52 and absolutely positively not below $50? Your posts truly are just a stupid waste of space. Trying to 'disprove' me by deliberately (or literally insanely) taking me gratuitously out of context just because you hate someone having make a prediction is stupid. With whatever little respect is due, you have demonstrated that you are not a person of sufficient quality or substance to be worth engaging with and I'll respond to your posts accordingly from now on.

 

[ducati916]

You can't just pretend that I meant to imply that oil would never drop below $50 even though I've multiple times, starting from months ago, said it might and my rough guess was $52 several months out. Do you honestly think that anyone would say oil was going to drop a massive amount to an exact figure of $52 and absolutely positively not below $50? Your posts truly are just a stupid waste of space. Trying to 'disprove' me by deliberately (or literally insanely) taking me gratuitously out of context just because you hate someone having make a prediction is stupid. With whatever little respect is due, you have demonstrated that you are not a person of sufficient quality or substance to be worth engaging with and I'll respond to your posts accordingly from now on.

The evidence of your failed guess is everywhere on this thread. Here is a further example:



So what you're trying to argue is that $46 and change is 'not much less'.

Well you may give yourself such a margin for error and still claim to be 'right', but for me, that is a major miss.

jog on
duc

 

[CanOz]

He sounds like a fundamental investor with no skin in the game...

 

[Smurf1976]

Down to $45.38 now so we're about to see what happens with the idea of a bottom around $45.

Given the speed of it all, I'm not at all confident that we'll see the bottom there. Anything's possible of course but it would just be too fast I think.

Time will tell. Smurfs were only to promote BP petrol*, they didn't set the price.

*For those too young to know, Smurfs were heavily used for marketing by BP circa late 1970's - early 80's.

 

[Ann]

He sounds like a fundamental investor with no skin in the game...

CanOz, bless, where have you been? I have missed you so much! You are one of my all time favourite posters and we have ridden POO for so, so long together.
Hey guys, leave Sdajii be. He clearly has an earnest belief about something and is becoming very defensive. This could leave disputes happening and ugly words exchanged, is this what Joe wants? I don't think so. We are having a meeting at Joe's place so we should be polite to each other even just for Joe's sake. Time will sort the answer for all and time will leave no bad feelings.

I will pop up a chart for POO tomorrow with the Fibonaccis again.

 

[qldfrog]

Agree

CanOz, bless, where have you been? I have missed you so much! You are one of my all time favourite posters and we have ridden POO for so, so long together.
Hey guys, leave Sdajii be. He clearly has an earnest belief about something and is becoming very defensive. This could leave disputes happening and ugly words exchanged, is this what Joe wants? I don't think so. We are having a meeting at Joe's place so we should be polite to each other even just for Joe's sake. Time will sort the answer for all and time will leave no bad feelings.

I will pop up a chart for POO tomorrow with the Fibonaccis again.

With Ann 100pc , not sure i follow sdajii but hey everyone can get emotional or have strong conviction.time will tell.i have been beaten with poo.i thought that the saudis would keep price around 60, just enough to kill US shale drilling, but big enough for their mega sale of the century: saudis saudis oioik assets..have been proven wrong..and now out after loss cut

 

[Ann]

Agree

With Ann 100pc , not sure i follow sdajii but hey everyone can get emotional or have strong conviction.time will tell.i have been beaten with poo.i thought that the saudis would keep price around 60, just enough to kill US shale drilling, but big enough for their mega sale of the century: saudis saudis oioik assets..have been proven wrong..and now out after loss cut

I have some fundamental stuff which may explain why POO fell. I will pop that up tomorrow as well. We can chuck it around for consideration.

 

[ducati916]

Ann,

You wrote:

"Hey guys, leave Sdajii be. He clearly has an earnest belief about something and is becoming very defensive."

Yes he is. Irrelevant.

He wants to play in the markets with the big boys? Then grow-up. Stop crying like a little baby because POO didn't work out and confirm his random guess.

It is actually an important lesson to learn. When proven wrong, change your mind and become right.

jog on
duc

 

[Ann]

duc, what I said was this......

Hey guys, leave Sdajii be. He clearly has an earnest belief about something and is becoming very defensive. This could leave disputes happening and ugly words exchanged, is this what Joe wants? I don't think so. We are having a meeting at Joe's place so we should be polite to each other even just for Joe's sake. Time will sort the answer for all and time will leave no bad feelings.

It is all about Joe and his hospitality, sometimes we just need to shut the f u c k up. There is stuff on the forum at the moment I would be delighted to take a major swing at, knowing full well I could win but it would leave none of us looking too flash. Think poise, good manners and reserve. In other words, think like Joe.

 

[Sdajii]

You guys are so weird! Oil is doing what I predicted so far and you say I'm sooking? You literally call yourself "big boys" and say that I'm not and say I'm the emotional one? Impressive projection.

I didn't call a bottom, I didn't try to. I said oil would fall to $52/low 50s, I didn't say it would stop there. I said it would then go back up to $100 (and it may go higher, if you are insane enough to need me to point out that I didn't mean to say it would go to exactly $100 and not a cent more.

If it hadn't gone as *low* as the low 50s, yes, I'd have been wrong. If it doesn't go as *high* as $100, yes, I will be wrong. If you think I am trying to predict absolute exact prices of tops and bottoms, then... well, it explains a lot.

As I have said all along, I just decided to share my predictions, and literally wouldn't have posted more than one or two short posts per month if it wasn't for the tantrums some of you have thrown in response to what I said. It's so weird that my predictions have ruffled feathers so, and that you would accuse me of being the emotional one, or having no skin in the game (I'm currently heavily invested in oil, why wouldn't I be if I'm sure oil is going to be $100 by August next year?).

There are some bizarre personalities here.

 

[Smurf1976]

There's possibly some differences of communication here.

For the record though, if someone informs their boss, partner or whoever that they'll be arriving "after 10am" then I'm pretty sure most people would take that to mean shortly after 10am. If you don't turn up until 4pm then you're going to have an unhappy boss, wife or whoever wondering why you mislead them. Yes 4pm is indeed "after 10am" but that's not how most will interpret the original statement.

But yeah, it's Christmas so let's not get too unhappy about it.

 

[sptrawler]

I know nothing about the price of oil, and I'm sure if any of the posters knew difinitively where the price was going and when it was going, they would be very rich.
It just appears from the outside, everyone is beating each other up, it's Christmas be happy.

 

[ducati916]

You guys are so weird! Oil is doing what I predicted so far and you say I'm sooking? You literally call yourself "big boys" and say that I'm not and say I'm the emotional one? Impressive projection.

I didn't call a bottom, I didn't try to. I said oil would fall to $52/low 50s, I didn't say it would stop there. I said it would then go back up to $100 (and it may go higher, if you are insane enough to need me to point out that I didn't mean to say it would go to exactly $100 and not a cent more.

If it hadn't gone as *low* as the low 50s, yes, I'd have been wrong. If it doesn't go as *high* as $100, yes, I will be wrong. If you think I am trying to predict absolute exact prices of tops and bottoms, then... well, it explains a lot.

As I have said all along, I just decided to share my predictions, and literally wouldn't have posted more than one or two short posts per month if it wasn't for the tantrums some of you have thrown in response to what I said. It's so weird that my predictions have ruffled feathers so, and that you would accuse me of being the emotional one, or having no skin in the game (I'm currently heavily invested in oil, why wouldn't I be if I'm sure oil is going to be $100 by August next year?).

There are some bizarre personalities here.

Save some time:



jog on
duc

 

[Ann]

Geez, not even a good fcuk could shut these boys up!

OK let's look at the chart...the POO has plopped down to close on $45 which is the 61.8% Fibonacci level, it now has some very powerful overhead resistance to fight back up through if there is to be an attempt at a rise, which I feel is most unlikely. The next level of support below $45 is my green line around the $42 level. If this is failed then it will be interesting to see how quickly it heads down to the 100% Fibonacci level of around $26. My feeling is it could be quite rapid if it breaks below the $42 level but I could be wrong, time will tell.

 

[Ann]

I found this article a few days ago but felt it could wait. As I am reading this I am also thinking perhaps China has mountains of oil it has been sitting on in case of peak oil playing out. Now that it looks like Peak Oil was just another good story (bullsh!t) they can see there is not much point saving it, so now they are bringing in the professionals to pull the stuff up out of the ground and feed their own economy. With such a vast labour force and possibly government subsidies they might be able to get oil up far cheaper than most other places. If I am not fantasizing too much, then this would give a fair reason to see the POO fall into a hole. If the worlds biggest emerging economy doesn't need to buy oil then who will the Saudis sell it to? Just my thoughts and I may be thinking on the wrong path, I am never any good at fundy stuff, too much imagination.


China Signs Oil Deals With Majors as Xi Underscores Open Trade
Bloomberg News
December 18, 2018, 6:14 PM GMT+11 Updated on December 18, 2018, 8:31 PM GMT+11

China signaled its openness for business with a raft of deals that’ll give oil majors including Royal Dutch Shell Plc new opportunities to develop fields in partnership with the nation’s biggest offshore explorer.

China National Offshore Oil Corp. said in Beijing on Tuesday that it had inked oil and gas accords with nine firms. The signing ceremony followed President Xi Jinping’s address to party cadres marking 40 years of reform and broadly underlining the nation’s commitment to global trade.

The agreements cover 64,000 square kilometers in the Pearl River basin, to a depth of up to 3,000 meters. In addition to the Netherlands-based Shell, France’s Total SA and U.S.-based Chevron Corp. were also awarded parcels. All three majors hold existing production sharing contracts with CNOOC. The other firms involved are: ConocoPhillips, Equinor ASA, Husky Energy Inc., Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration Co., Roc Oil Co., and SK Innovation Co.

https://www.bloomberg.com//news/art...-as-xi-underscores-open-trade?srnd=markets-vp

 

[qldfrog]

Plus the fact that with both Germany and Japan in negative growth, I would not be surprised to learn real neg growth in China (do not worry, we will never be told that).The mood there is definitively down, many expats going back home, business slowing down....And I assume oil consumption down too

 

[Smurf1976]

Now that it looks like Peak Oil was just another good story

The basic concept that oil is a finite resource is beyond doubt in my view and is backed up by the many locations, including Australia, the UK and many more, where production has indeed risen, peaked and declined.

Australian oil production has declined over 60% since its year 2000 peak. That's depletion right there.

Then there's price. By historic standards oil at $45 is not cheap indeed it's extremely expensive. Look back over the entire history of oil since 1859 and to the extent there's a "normal" price it's about half the current level. That most oil fields today wouldn't be viable at that price is more evidence that we've used the cheapest and best and now we're forced to use lesser quality or more costly to extract sources.

So I don't think there's any doubting that it's ultimately a finite resource and we're heading down the curve. That said, I'd also be the first to point out that we're not running out of oil next week or next year - the issues are far longer term than the time frames that financial markets tend to work on.

So I'm still bullish based on long term fundamentals but from a short term perspective I'm not at all convinced that this decline is finished yet. It's just too fast and too direct.

I'm still thinking that a drop down to the 20's, so that would be a 100% retrace for the technically focused traders, is a possibility here. We're at $45 now and if we do fall further well it's not too far until we are indeed looking at a number that starts with 2.

I could be wrong of course - we're dealing with uncertainties I don't claim to know more than what I'm posting.

 

[Sdajii]

Save some time:

View attachment 90880

jog on
duc

It's flattering that you have such a fixation on me, though a little creepy that despite it being incredibly obvious that you're misinterpreting me, you are maintaining this fixation. Well, to be honest I'm finding it more amusing than creepy.

Honestly, do you really believe yourself when you think that I would predict, several months out, that the price would drop to $52 and not any lower? Your own quote which you've put amusing effort into showing, does not say this. A simple 3 seconds of thought is more than sufficient for it to be obvious that I wouldn't mean that, and a simple 3 seconds of reading your own post which apparently you've read many times now shows that I never said it.

Jog on... over to the December competition leaderboard

(no, I'm not suggesting it actually means anything, but you seem to love reading stuff after my name, so you might enjoy the sight ).

 

[Ann]

The basic concept that oil is a finite resource is beyond doubt in my view and is backed up by the many locations, including Australia, the UK and many more, where production has indeed risen, peaked and declined.

Australian oil production has declined over 60% since its year 2000 peak. That's depletion right there.

Smurf, I am asking a question more than making a statement as I don't know the FA about pulling the stuff out of the ground or sea. Is Australia actually running out or is there very little oil to be had in Australia in the first place or/and was it just getting too expensive with the cost of labour and all that goes with it here to continue to extract the stuff?

Then there's price. By historic standards oil at $45 is not cheap indeed it's extremely expensive. Look back over the entire history of oil since 1859 and to the extent there's a "normal" price it's about half the current level. That most oil fields today wouldn't be viable at that price is more evidence that we've used the cheapest and best and now we're forced to use lesser quality or more costly to extract sources.

I can't go back to 1859 but I can go back from 1946 with an historic chart I found. It is adjusted for inflation and as you can see the current price is about average (inflation adjusted). In the early, early days I thought oil just leaked naturally from the ground, so recovery could have been done by anyone with a bucket and scoop. I doubt there would have been much demand for it without vehicular demand in those very early years.

So I don't think there's any doubting that it's ultimately a finite resource and we're heading down the curve. That said, I'd also be the first to point out that we're not running out of oil next week or next year - the issues are far longer term than the time frames that financial markets tend to work on.

I don't think anyone would doubt this stuff is very short term and finite and in the grander time scale an alternative source of energy would be required, which is where we are heading at the moment with EVs. We will have weaned ourselves off oil long before it is anywhere near running out. This is what I could see very clearly while all the "Peak Oil" bullsh!t was going on. Obviously all good cons need to have even a grain of truth from which to drive a fairy tale for the kiddies. I guess a huge player wanted to exit oil and needed enough mug punters to support the price during the exodus. Now they (whoever they are) is out, let the POO fall where it may. I think it is for the long drop! (Country toilets are called 'long drops'. A deep hole in the ground with a toilet seat on top, not great in summer).

 

[aus_trader]

Smurf, I am asking a question more than making a statement as I don't know the FA about pulling the stuff out of the ground or sea. Is Australia actually running out or is there very little oil to be had in Australia in the first place or/and was it just getting too expensive with the cost of labour and all that goes with it here to continue to extract the stuff?



I can't go back to 1859 but I can go back from 1946 with an historic chart I found. It is adjusted for inflation and as you can see the current price is about average (inflation adjusted). In the early, early days I thought oil just leaked naturally from the ground, so recovery could have been done by anyone with a bucket and scoop. I doubt there would have been much demand for it without vehicular demand in those very early years.



I don't think anyone would doubt this stuff is very short term and finite and in the grander time scale an alternative source of energy would be required, which is where we are heading at the moment with EVs. We will have weaned ourselves off oil long before it is anywhere near running out. This is what I could see very clearly while all the "Peak Oil" bullsh!t was going on. Obviously all good cons need to have even a grain of truth from which to drive a fairy tale for the kiddies. I guess a huge player wanted to exit oil and needed enough mug punters to support the price during the exodus. Now they (whoever they are) is out, let the POO fall where it may. I think it is for the long drop! (Country toilets are called 'long drops'. A deep hole in the ground with a toilet seat on top, not great in summer).

View attachment 90912

Nice historical chart Ann. Looks like all the peak stuff is over and we are nicely back near the baseline.