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Oil price discussion and analysis

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Re: OIL AGAIN!

It is called stock piling, a normal response to a possible threat to supply. Inventory tells you very little in isolation.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

excerpt
Next week, the Seaway pipeline between Cushing, Oklahoma and the Gulf of Mexico will reverse, directing 150,000 barrels of oil per day (400,000 by 2013) from the bottleneck at Cushing to the Gulf. As my colleague Dan Brusstar wrote last November after the initial announcement, this is major change to the North American oil complex that will enhance the value and global availability of West Texas Intermediate crude.
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Pipeline_310x1741.jpg

Video
http://openmarkets.cmegroup.com/3356/impact-of-the-seaway-pipeline-reversal
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

They have just reversed a pipeline to get oil out of Cushing, that should close the spread over time IMO.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Oil, oil, oil...
Oil price at the moment is on the 9 months lowest, well almost - it was 78.82 in the end of September 2011 and then kept raising until 19th of Feb 2012, when the peak was 109.35 and after that it started falling again and came down to the lowest point of 80.39 on the 18th of June 12. I'm trying to predict the oil "direction" at the moment. I know that EUR/USD has lots of power to influence the course of the Oil price, when EUR up/USD down and Oil price goes up, right? My question is, how much more it can sink? Or is it gonna start gaining again or is it more likely to keep falling after this short raise, that is happening at the moment (well, today's change is -1,50%, but from 28th of June until 29th of June it gained from 78.41 to 84.66). I wanna buy some oil in Forex and I'm trying to hit a jackpot. I mean that I'm not planning to make Millions or something but I'm trying to get at least 50% profit and at the moment I'm planning to predict when it is the right time to buy. This current gain is probably related to the Merkel and Co comments in media about Euro Zone, right?
My theory is (and what I'm betting on) is that there is eventually going to be war in Syria, which has a major impact to Oil prices, for example when armed conflict started in Libya in 2011, oil price gained from 85.57 to 113.98, which was the peak. War might be short, like in Libya or even shorter OR longer (since Russia is on Syrias side) but it has a impact for the oil price. Besides Syria, I'm betting on the war with Iran and it also has something to do with Syria. What I see at the moment is that (if you look on the Middle-East map), take a look where Iran is, take a look where Israel is. What do you see? Between Israel and Iran there are two nations, one of them is Iraq (which is Pro-USA) and second one is Syria. Syria obviously isn't gonna allow Israel to use their airspace to attack Iran. Israel also has a choice to attack through Turkey airspace but like we know then their relations are not very "shining" after that Turkish Humanitarian boat incident. My ultimate-bet is that there is gonna be a war between Israel and Iran, since both of them hate each other and Israel isn't gonna stand there and look how Iran is trying to get their hands on the Nuclear weapon(power). When that happens, then Iran is most probably gonna block the Strait of Hormuz, WHICH means that OIL price is gonna skyrocket beyond your wildest dreams and that is the reason why I wanna buy oil NOW! Well, not NOW but within few weeks. What is your guess about Oil price and where is it gonna head now, before there is gonna be war between those two nations (which probably takes 2-3 months until it begins).
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

prawn_86 said:
Very interesting article saying that increased production methods and usage efficiencies will help maintain oil and gas as the main energy status for years to come:

http://www.wired.com/business/2012/08/mf_naturalgas/
Click to expand...

That's interesting about the rise of natural gas, hasn't global oil production already peaked?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/peak-oil-its-closer-than-you-think-20110429-1e0gt.html

PS is this the right thread to discuss October Oil Futures or should I be over in derivatives?
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

From Jason Leavitt's site

At 1:52 EST, the bottom fell out. Thirteen thousand contracts traded in one minute; the previous minute had a grand total of 131 contracts. One traders said, "I've been doing this for 14 years and that's the fastest move I've ever seen." ICE, where Brent crude oil trades in London, declined to comment. The CME, where West Texas oil primarily trades, said it was unaware of any technical issues that may have contributed to the selling. As of now, nobody knows anything...or they're just not saying.
Click to expand...

CanOz
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

No idea other than Saudi pumping.
Didn't expect this so soon or so fast.
Bodes well for sustained rally in everything else longer term but all seems a bit strange.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Go to Google, search, 'American energy independence'

a result...

A new world of American energy independence


THE UNITED States is soon to be awash in oil and natural gas, positively brimming with the stuff whose scarcity and unreliability of supply has plagued us since the end of World War II. It is a remarkable, stunning turn of events ”” largely unforeseen just a few years ago yet now an imminent although still hard-to-believe reality. And the implications of this new reality will be dramatic too ”” almost all of them positive although not without some risks. Remember when the United States once trembled at the power of OPEC? In a short while, we may be running the thing.

Last month the well-respected International Energy Agency declared, “A new global energy landscape is emerging . . . redrawn by the resurgence in oil and gas production in the United States.” Within eight years, the America is expected to be the planet’s largest producer of oil. By 2030, we’ll be producing more than we need ”” exporting, not importing. The reason is technology. Techniques such as hydraulic fracturing have been invented and improved so that they can now economically unlock the vast stores of oil and natural gas across the middle of the country. The flyover states may finally start getting some respect.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2012/12/02/new-world-american-energy-independence/CkO3pcKNOfB9s2IpW8HlXP/story.html
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Oil short?
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Stunning turn of events....


One could have some fun speculating what the world would look like with the USA as the worlds biggest oil supplier....

A. Even bigger SUVs for soccer moms
B. changing the navy's boats back to bunker c from nuclear.
C. Foreign aid for Saudi Arabia and Kuwait after thier suppliers dry up
D. The end of Iran

Or, new supplies of oil are found in other countries using fracking...countries like:
Argentina
China
Canada (the oil sands could be rendered too expensive to extract)
Russia

Oil drops to $30 a barrel

On and on....

CanOz
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

There is a vast difference between the many opinions offered about oil, like the one above, and what is actually happening with the price.

The 2012 average price for crude, based on brent, as that is the most realistic price, will end at a record high of ~$111/bbl. This is about 10 times the price of 1998.

What everyone needs to ask themselves is why would the price be so high if all the rosy news about supplies were accurate? As a hint, the stories about all the wonderful new technologies fail to mention that they were used 40-50 years ago in areas of the US. What makes them viable now is the price of crude.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

brty said:
As a hint, the stories about all the wonderful new technologies fail to mention that they were used 40-50 years ago in areas of the US. What makes them viable now is the price of crude.
Click to expand...
Bingo!

There's plenty of oil in a physical sense, but what many have been concerned about for quite some time is that cheap supplies are running out.

So we have a somewhat interesting situation. One one hand there's plenty of supply available. On the other, it is available only at prices which hamper the economy. And if we do get prices down, then that will be because demand (ie the economy) fell in a heap such that we don't actually need the new supplies anyway.

Looking at the broader economic situation it is somewhat alarming. Even though most Western economies have struggled (at best) in recent years, there is still practically no spare oil production capacity and we still have high prices.

Just imagine what would have happened if the economy had been growing more strongly? (In my opinion such an outcome is impractical since the resultant oil price spike would have promptly whacked the economy back down again).

I can see that there's a benefit for the US to have expensive domestic production rather than expensive imports. But it's still expensive oil no matter how you look at it. Oil is still uncompetitive for anything other than transport fuels and chemicals, to the point that in most countries non-transport use is fairly limited these days whereas it used to be major.

So we'll have oil. Just not cheap oil. :2twocents
 

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