Oil price discussion and analysis
- Thread starter wayneL
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Oil (WTI) 07.04.11
Oil is passing up the important 61.8% Fibo and next resistance will be 78.6% Fibo (around 123$)
in monthly chart, after we had the buy signal we haven't had sell signal
Oil is also testing upper line of the upward channel , if it passes up successfully the target will be around 140$
Oil (WTI) 07.04.11
Oil is passing up the important 61.8% Fibo and next resistance will be 78.6% Fibo (around 123$)
in monthly chart, after we had the buy signal we haven't had sell signal
Oil is also testing upper line of the upward channel , if it passes up successfully the target will be around 140$
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Still tracking along pretty bullishly. $113.05 at close of the week. That price target is looking reasonable to me. Glad I've got an oiler in the portfoilio!
Still tracking along pretty bullishly. $113.05 at close of the week. That price target is looking reasonable to me. Glad I've got an oiler in the portfoilio!
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
These oiler stock will take a while to gain on these prices though.. I'm waiting for the next round of financial reports..
These oiler stock will take a while to gain on these prices though.. I'm waiting for the next round of financial reports..
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
I realise with forward hedging contracts the price of oil isn't going to have an immediate impact on a companys share price .... but.... realisticly if you are wanting to put a dollar figure valuation on a company the simple equation is what are the assets worth divided by how many shares.
Forgetting for the moment we have to keep finding more oil to sustain growth and I'll use SSN here as my example (it's what I hold) their as yet unproven field in the Niobrara is estimated at 36 million barrels.
So the simple equation is if they are sitting on a good reserve every dollar on the POO equates to 36 million of value to the company.
That's how I see it anyway!
I realise with forward hedging contracts the price of oil isn't going to have an immediate impact on a companys share price .... but.... realisticly if you are wanting to put a dollar figure valuation on a company the simple equation is what are the assets worth divided by how many shares.
Forgetting for the moment we have to keep finding more oil to sustain growth and I'll use SSN here as my example (it's what I hold) their as yet unproven field in the Niobrara is estimated at 36 million barrels.
So the simple equation is if they are sitting on a good reserve every dollar on the POO equates to 36 million of value to the company.
That's how I see it anyway!
Re: OIL AGAIN!
OIL Primary and Secondary cycles
Break & extend pattern complete in the Secondary cycles and looking for a
rotation back down into support levels @ $98.00 to $100
Note:- There is a week low support pattern @ $104 (not shown), that could
support the current reversal pattern this week only....
However a larger reversal pattern would see OIL back down into support levels, and as
low as $95.98 in the month of MAY.
If the 2nd Quarter holds support @ $96-$98.00 then I'd look for more gains later
in 2011 towards new highs in 2012
OIL Primary and Secondary cycles
Break & extend pattern complete in the Secondary cycles and looking for a
rotation back down into support levels @ $98.00 to $100
Note:- There is a week low support pattern @ $104 (not shown), that could
support the current reversal pattern this week only....
However a larger reversal pattern would see OIL back down into support levels, and as
low as $95.98 in the month of MAY.
If the 2nd Quarter holds support @ $96-$98.00 then I'd look for more gains later
in 2011 towards new highs in 2012
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Oil-WTI : 4 August 2011
Oil-WTI is in a very sensitive situation, if the lower line of the channel (support line) and psychological price level at $90 cannot hold the short and channel break down , the target of the short would be around $70.
Oil-WTI : 4 August 2011
Oil-WTI is in a very sensitive situation, if the lower line of the channel (support line) and psychological price level at $90 cannot hold the short and channel break down , the target of the short would be around $70.
skc
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Very nice call, Iced Earth.
Got a short in at $90.7 last night
Oil-WTI : 4 August 2011
Oil-WTI is in a very sensitive situation, if the lower line of the channel (support line) and psychological price level at $90 cannot hold the short and channel break down , the target of the short would be around $70.
Very nice call, Iced Earth.
Got a short in at $90.7 last night
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Nice SKC, Unfortunately I have no active Forex account at the moment but I am happy you used the situation...
Very nice call, Iced Earth.
Got a short in at $90.7 last night
Nice SKC, Unfortunately I have no active Forex account at the moment but I am happy you used the situation...
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
WTI now $81 with a brick!!
Who woulda thunk it?
Wonder how many drilling sites will become un-economical at these plummeting prices?
Of course, the rebound when it DOES come (maybe on some "unexpected drop in ME reserves" news down the track) will be even more breathtaking and take us back into massive Oil Spike contagion territory...again.
I'm getting dizzy.....
WTI now $81 with a brick!!
Who woulda thunk it?
Wonder how many drilling sites will become un-economical at these plummeting prices?
Of course, the rebound when it DOES come (maybe on some "unexpected drop in ME reserves" news down the track) will be even more breathtaking and take us back into massive Oil Spike contagion territory...again.
I'm getting dizzy.....
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
9 August , 12:46 pm WTI CRUDE FUTURE = $76.670 (Not too far from $70.00)
Oil-WTI : 4 August 2011
Oil-WTI is in a very sensitive situation, if the lower line of the channel (support line) and psychological price level at $90 cannot hold the short and channel break down , the target of the short would be around $70.
View attachment 43838
9 August , 12:46 pm WTI CRUDE FUTURE = $76.670 (Not too far from $70.00)
Re: OIL AGAIN!
Goldman Sachs cuts oil price outlook
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...ts-oil-price-outlook/articleshow/10231511.cms
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Goldman Sachs cuts oil price outlook
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...ts-oil-price-outlook/articleshow/10231511.cms
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Oil To Natural Gas Ratio
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/2/27/oil-to-natural-gas-ratio.html
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Oil To Natural Gas Ratio
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/2/27/oil-to-natural-gas-ratio.html
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
No shortage of oil yet
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/3/7/no-shortage-of-oil-yet.html
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No shortage of oil yet
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/3/7/no-shortage-of-oil-yet.html
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
1. That chart seems to be only for stockpiles in the USA, a country somewhat awash with oil at the moment and where prices are lower than the rest of the world. Does anyone have info on stocks held in other countries?
2. There is absolutely a shortage of cheap oil and that has always been the concern of those worried about peak oil. We won't run out of oil, but it will get expensive. I can't find any oil for sale at $20 per barrel or even $50. The cheap stuff is gone and what's left is increasingly expensive.
1. That chart seems to be only for stockpiles in the USA, a country somewhat awash with oil at the moment and where prices are lower than the rest of the world. Does anyone have info on stocks held in other countries?
2. There is absolutely a shortage of cheap oil and that has always been the concern of those worried about peak oil. We won't run out of oil, but it will get expensive. I can't find any oil for sale at $20 per barrel or even $50. The cheap stuff is gone and what's left is increasingly expensive.
Re: OIL AGAIN!
For OECD inventories at end-December 2011, please see page 26 in the link below:
http://omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/full.pdf
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For OECD inventories at end-December 2011, please see page 26 in the link below:
http://omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/full.pdf
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