Oil price discussion and analysis

[chops_a_must]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Watch that pennant there Red!

Could easily see a move to about $125.

 

[deadset]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

The oil price has been twitching about alot lately, I'm expecting more of the same between $95 and $125. below $95 and its in the zone.

 

[deadset]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

It's in the 90-95 bracket now on Friday. Is that still the buy zone ?
With markets closed on Monday.

It turned out earlier in the week that US inventories were high.

 

[BentRod]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Oil just cracked $85.

Aren't a few cartons supposed to be exchanged or something now?? :

 

[IFocus]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

This is the ETF USO oil has closed below support

Bent I didn't see any replies......

.

 

[JeSSica WaBBit]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Hey Wavepicker,

you are fast closing in on that slab of beer...............................good luck with it.

It would be ironic if you missed by the skin of your teeth like i did with $150.

A complete reversal, well forcast, i didnt see it coming myself. I only hold shares in CUE and therefore exposed to oil but still in profit at this stage. Monday will take my portfolio into the RED once CUE falls below 13 cents. With oil off $9.00 over night that will be a certainty.

JW

 

[woltage]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Here's some notes taken from a guy who attended the most recent 'Peak Oil' conference on Sep 21st

http://www.getreallist.com/notes-from-the-2008-aspo-usa-peak-oil-conference.html

Interestingly, EIA have gotten their oil forecast consistently wrong for last 12 years, up to 127% out, average error 54%

 

[Kauri]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

A dawning realization for the erstwhile 'buy oil wear diamonds" traders that last year"s heady days have surrendered to the realities that tripling the price of the nation"s industries" life blood does to all levels of economic activity.
Oil is not a commodity, it is THE commodity, and now high prices have done their damage, the speculators can repent at leisure their sins whilst European and US GDP barely registers a beep on the heart monitor for the next six to nine months. The fact of the matter is that oil and Euros (or for that matter any currency) are not created equal; oil should reflect supply and demand pressures of global economic activity, not the whims of financial intermediaries that reckon it"s a good punt.

Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[Reealjrd]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Hello All,

As every body is aware that oil and gold are the major product which play a major role in the ups and downs of the market. As most of you have discussed above that oil will be down in the coming times. It is true but here i would like to say that in this market any thing can happen. As the present sceario is saying that oil prices are going to dip more and he gold prices will go upwards to some extent.

 

[seasprite]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Hello All,

As every body is aware that oil and gold are the major product which play a major role in the ups and downs of the market. As most of you have discussed above that oil will be down in the coming times. It is true but here i would like to say that in this market any thing can happen. As the present sceario is saying that oil prices are going to dip more and he gold prices will go upwards to some extent.

BAGHDAD (AP) -- An Iraqi official says Iraq believes that the $100 a barrel is a "fair and acceptable" oil price for both producers and consumers.

Oil Ministry spokesman Assem Jihad says that if crude prices continue to fluctuate, OPEC will cut its production.

Last Monday, Iraq's Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani told reporters in London that production of oil at its current levels could not be justified if demand slackened.

Oil for November delivery was trading around $73 per barrel on Thursday - far below a record $147 in July.

Current estimates put Iraq's proven oil reserves at 115 billion barrels. Its daily production stands near 2.4 million barrels a day.

 

[CAB SAV]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

OPEC rescheduled meeting now to Friday next week. Look for big drop in production to sure up prices.

 

[Page]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Seeing the present market scenario crude market is going up but still suggesting not to go for holding positions only intraday.

 

[JeSSica WaBBit]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Where is Wavepicker?

He is about to win the slab of beer off me, $3.00 to go and we will be under $60.00.

Got to take my hat of to him, it was a great call..............thems the breaks in this commodity game.

JW

 

[kransky]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

must be holidaying on his new island that he got from going all in short on oil...

why do things makes so much sense in hindsight?

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Here's a couple of interesting graphs.

The first one shows the World Rotary Rigs count up to Sep 2008. The graph shows the rig count at an all time high. Of course, we now know what happened to the oil price after from Sep onwards to now!

Interestingly, the US Rig Count to Oct shows a significant downtrend kicking in from Sep.

By now, I would have thought many rigs worldwide are in the process of being mothballed and announcements being prepared to inform investors that current prices cannot sustain many of the existing exploration projects or those planned to be started when the price was at least double the current price.

I think the downturn of rigs after the 2001 World slump might be a guide...

 

[Glen48]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

The more the World recession bites (don't know why it isn't called a depression now) the more Oil will come down when it hits $30.00 a Barrel you know things have bottomed.

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Here's a couple of interesting graphs.

The first one shows the World Rotary Rigs count up to Sep 2008. The graph shows the rig count at an all time high. Of course, we now know what happened to the oil price after from Sep onwards to now!

Far more alarming is that the surge in the rig count didn't translate to anything more than a trivial increase in production. We're running faster and faster to essentially stand still at the global level - exactly what happened in individual countries that have previously peaked.

Cut the rig count and watch production capacity fall. Low prices won't last long in my opinion unless there's a serious fall in demand.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Yes, it's a morning star on the hourly.

Don't think this is the bottom, but looks like it may be for a little while.

Haven't looked at an EW count... better do it I suppose.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Yes, it's a morning star on the hourly.

Don't think this is the bottom, but looks like it may be for a little while.

Haven't looked at an EW count... better do it I suppose.

Who would have thought 54 bucks would have been reached.
Bags into the 40`s too. (later)

 

[sinner]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Forgive me if this has been asked/answered before but I don't have time to go back through 50+ pages to find it.

Are there any ASX listed shares which mirror the price of crude closely and consistently?