A report from China on Monday that the country's crude oil imports in July were down 7% from last year fueled expectations that the economic slowdown affecting the U.S. and Europe may be spreading to Asia and cutting demand for oil.
But I hear a lot of talk about switching a lot more public transport to gas or electric in the coming years also.
The days of oil as first choice energy source are on the way out I'm afraid.
Oil is just about to go poof... wooosh... gurgle, gurgle, again.
I'll give it til 119, 120 at most... then look out 100.
I'll give it til 119, 120 at most... then look out 100.
Maybe we should give it till 130?Oil is just about to go poof... wooosh... gurgle, gurgle, again.
I'll give it til 119, 120 at most... then look out 100.
The Daily Interview: Commodity correction nothing to do with fundamentals, says JPM fund's Henderson
By Danielle Levy | 12:16:00 | 21 August 2008
JPM Natural Resources manager Ian Henderson believes the upward trend in energy prices is set to continue, seeing the recent sell-off in commodities as a short-term situation caused by forced selling.
Henderson (pictured), who is Citywire A-rated, says the recent correction in commodities prices does not take into account continued demand from the emerging world and is more an over-reaction to global financial markets and negative statistics from the US and Europe. ‘Today the emerging world is where all the growth is coming from,’ he says.
He does not see any evidence that China is facing a slowdown in growth. In fact, he labels bottlenecks in energy supply as the main problem for the emerging markets rather than a decline in demand growth.
Henderson believes recent commodities price falls are a result of forced selling by investors in the ‘flip flop between banks and commodities stocks’, as he calls it.............................
Maybe we should give it till 130?
...140?
...250?
One blokes view (not that I necessarily agree will it all):
http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/...unds/content.aspx?ID=312001&re=3545&ea=199083
I vehemently disagree.Nah, I'm still going with a minute abc in a minor 5 wave down. That will probably be a minor wave A... but it won't make much difference if this is a minor ABC forming now. It'll just be a more complex intermediate and primary corrective waves, down to the same area.
This Week In Petroleum
Released on August 20, 2008
So, where do we expect prices to go from here? While we are not quite as confident in forecasting the near-term path for oil prices as Michael Phelps might be about winning his next race, we do think that crude oil prices may settle in the $120 - $130 per barrel range for most of the remainder of the year, barring any additional major supply disruptions from hurricanes or other events such as the current conflict in Georgia. This is largely due to our projection that year-over-year declines in U.S. oil consumption will not be as large in the second half of the year, in part due to relatively weak consumption in the second half of last year and also to the perceived end of the upward surge in prices. Balancing out the forecasted decreases in U.S. consumption, we project relatively strong continued demand growth in non-OECD countries. Finally, as prices drop, Saudi Arabia may cut back on its recent increase in production, which could halt the most recent price decline. Of course, whether or not this scenario unfolds is anyone’s guess, but understanding the factors behind the increase and recent decline in oil prices is important in understanding what might come next in the prices we pay at the pump.
I tend to agee with what you thoughts are. In regards to oil companies, I prefer the big boys like WPL,STO,OSH & AWE. Oil may have dropped off a bit lately, but so has our dollar,so has oil fallen? The smaller companies and their shareholders will suffer as you pointed out, costs keep rising.The principal difference between oil and the metals in the commodity stakes is that it's relatively easy to respond to metal demand. This was not always the case, as oil supply until 2005 was just a matter of filling the tankers and sending them on their way.
With Angola, Iraq and the Saudis being about the only nations that can meaningfully increase output in a world where production peaks have set well in, it does not take much nowadays to spike oil prices. It takes a little more for the speculative longs to unwind positions and force prices back down. The volatility of this theme will increase over the next few years as it becomes ever clearer that the supply tap is wound almost to capacity.
But back to the above quote for a moment. When the world's greatest oil consumer comes out and suggests that we are destined for prices in the present range and higher for the rest of the year, you must wonder what they are thinking about in terms of next year's prices.
At present I favour a relatively flat to declining demand response from Western nations, and a continuing demand increase from the emerging economies regardless of global economic conditions. I believe average oil prices will increase by about 20% next year under these conditions.
Irrespective of pump prices, the cost of oil extraction will increase dramatically in coming years as the next wave of oil supply will come from both offshore and deeper drilling activities. All aspects of the supply curve - exploring, producing and landing - must add significantly to per barrel costs. Ultimately these costs will be expressed at the bowser until demand destruction is matched by the essential needs of users and we reach a price equilibrium. My sense is that this is around 5 years and another $100 dollars a barrel away. Until then, I will not be quitting any of my oil equities.
I vehemently disagree.
I think it's part a complex wave X; a wave 3 of a larger degree wave C flat of a larger degree Wave B triple zig-zag of a larger degree wave 2 of a leading diagonal.... ummm where am I?
The UAE C/B Gov has noted that he sees oil prices moving back into a $60/80 band
Incidentally...UBS is recommending gold for a target of 850...
I'm sure you mean a short-term cyclical low!As soon as Gustav nicks off, I'd say she is gonna finally rip her fingernails out and break loose for a new low.
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