Oil price discussion and analysis

Wysiwyg · 3 August 2008

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Smurf1976 said:
Short term though I'm leaning toward the plunge notion somewhat. Anything's possible but markets are made at the margin and a proper global recession would create a temporary glut of oil, quite likely leading to a temporary price plunge.

How low? Anyone's guess. Depends on the broader economy IMO.

I lean the same way with the reasoning being; the general populace are coming to realisation of how finite oil is.The hip pocket asks questions.A reassessment of personal wants and a conservative stance.India continues to raise interest rates which curbs expansion/investment, China has inflation running at 8% and America has their credit crisis in which the IMF says ;

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says there is no end in sight to the credit crisis gripping world financial markets, predicting that banks are in for more pain as mortgage defaults soar and economies slow.

BentRod · 6 August 2008

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Anyone have a daily bar chart of Crude?
I don't have that data.

Been hammered the last couple of days.

Bluddy Speculators

Whiskers · 6 August 2008

Re: OIL AGAIN!

BentRod said:
Anyone have a daily bar chart of Crude?
I don't have that data.

Been hammered the last couple of days.

Bluddy Speculators

Yeah, I know.

This is one I use. http://www.usagold.com/live.html

It comes up as a bar chart by default, but I prefer candles.

Wysiwyg · 6 August 2008

Re: OIL AGAIN!

What about a bounce off the line for a right shoulder formation??Nothing in a straight line down!

Whiskers · 6 August 2008

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Wysiwyg said:
What about a bounce off the line for a right shoulder formation??Nothing in a straight line down!

Nah, they're all falling over themselves diving and somersaulting trying to get a look at a short underneath it.

Uncle Festivus · 6 August 2008

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Whiskers said:
Nah, they're all falling over themselves diving and somersaulting trying to get a look at a short underneath it.

Well she's bounced of $118 this morning, seems to be trying to gather some strength for another assault?

BentRod · 6 August 2008

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Thanks for the Chart Whiskers

Whiskers · 8 August 2008

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Uncle Festivus said:
Well she's bounced of $118 this morning, seems to be trying to gather some strength for another assault?

No chance Unc.

She's doomed. :

Relating in my newfound interest in EW, I reckon she'll go below 100 on this leg v of 3, in a week or so. Then it might pop up and down around 100 for awhile while wave 4 sorts itself out, then 5 could take it back to my FA target of 80.

Also bearing in mind that this is (little doubt) a major cycle correction, that will probably only be a minor wave A. So B could make it back around 100 before C takes it probably sub 80.

Hows that for sticking one's neck out for a forcast.

wayneL · 8 August 2008

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Whiskers said:
No chance Unc.

She's doomed. :

Relating in my newfound interest in EW, I reckon she'll go below 100 on this leg v of 3, in a week or so. Then it might pop up and down around 100 for awhile while wave 4 sorts itself out, then 5 could take it back to my FA target of 80.

Also bearing in mind that this is (little doubt) a major cycle correction, that will probably only be a minor wave A. So B could make it back around 100 before C takes it probably sub 80.

Hows that for sticking one's neck out for a forcast.

A couple of EW points

1/ What makes you believe this is an impulse?

2/ If it is, It can't be a Wave A of a larger degree corrective.

You really should be labeling this as corrective to be in tune with your view.

MRC & Co · 9 August 2008

Re: OIL AGAIN!

wayneL said:
A couple of EW points

1/ What makes you believe this is an impulse?

2/ If it is, It can't be a Wave A of a larger degree corrective.

You really should be labeling this as corrective to be in tune with your view.

Looks like those big words didn't save your skin when creating EW training material Wayne

On that note, I'm surprised you even muse over EW anymore. Impulse?

>Apocalypto< · 9 August 2008

Re: OIL AGAIN!

what a surprise.

Wavepicker told me and u all, oil would fall gold will fall and aud eur will fall to usd on back of usd rising and fancy that, IT'S ALL HAPPENING

so after all the fights who's analysis is proving correct?

don't tell me as i know already

chops_a_must · 9 August 2008

Re: OIL AGAIN!

>Apocalypto< said:
what a surprise.

Wavepicker told me and u all, oil would fall gold will fall and aud eur will fall to usd on back of usd rising and fancy that, IT'S ALL HAPPENING

so after all the fights who's analysis is proving correct?

don't tell me as i know already

Oh right... so he wasn't on the wrong side of the trade for 18 months?

Yes, yes, yes... no need to hear the response banner boy.

MRC & Co · 9 August 2008

Re: OIL AGAIN!

chops_a_must said:
Oh right... so he wasn't on the wrong side of the trade for 18 months?

Yes, yes, yes... no need to hear the response banner boy.

ha ha, yes, these appearances seem to be pretty timely.

How about once your target is hit, come back and gloat?

Until then, you probably just made back the money you lost, if that. Like the bugs who gloat which turns out to be the perfect fade opportunity, this EW 'I told you so' is the same.

Watch, a fade is coming and less than 18 months away

chops_a_must · 9 August 2008

Re: OIL AGAIN!

>Apocalypto< said:
you are a Tosser chops a little wannabe tosser.

you will never get to WP level mate

dream on.

Ah well.

With great calls like WP's, why would I want to be like him hey?

Tysonboss1 · 9 August 2008

Re: OIL AGAIN!

>Apocalypto< said:
what a surprise.

Wavepicker told me and u all, oil would fall gold will fall and aud eur will fall to usd on back of usd rising and fancy that, IT'S ALL HAPPENING

so after all the fights who's analysis is proving correct?

don't tell me as i know already

When oil was at $120 WP said that it was going to drop below $100 it then trended up to within a whisker of $150,...... and has only now dropped back to the level where it was at when he was predicting a slump, so really we haven't seen the slump that he predicted at all yet.

Apocalyto are you really WP with a new log in.

Whiskers · 9 August 2008

Re: OIL AGAIN!

wayneL said:
A couple of EW points

1/ What makes you believe this is an impulse?

Ahh ha, your testing me?

If I pass, can I toss my 'L' plate and move up to a 'P' plate?

Well, it's been tracking in minute waves of 5 so far. Also my FA suggested it will be a rapid decline at least to start with, because as the USD strengthens it compounds the rate of decrease, suggesting to me a good chance of a zig zag.

2/ If it is, It can't be a Wave A of a larger degree corrective.

You really should be labeling this as corrective to be in tune with your view.

A zig zag is 5 impulsive, 3 corrective and 5 impulsive isn't it! Since according to EWI the high OF 147 was a cycle V which equates to supercycle (I). So that suggests to me that the first corrective A will probably be made up of an impulse leg of one of the higher degrees, at least of a minor or intermediate wave count. I am anticipating if it makes it to minor wave 5 (about $80), that will probably equate to corrective leg A.

Do you think it isn't measuring up as impulsive so far in the lower degree counts?

rederob · 10 August 2008

Re: OIL AGAIN!

>Apocalypto< said:
what a surprise.

Wavepicker told me and u all, oil would fall gold will fall and aud eur will fall to usd on back of usd rising and fancy that, IT'S ALL HAPPENING

so after all the fights who's analysis is proving correct?

don't tell me as i know already

Oil was significantly overbought as early as May, and a correction was on the cards for months thereafter.
Many posts noted this.

As for analysis, the EW team was conspicuous by its absence for many weeks while new highs were being hit; and it was probably whiskers who called the peak several days after it happened.

Several keys open the door to analysis:
First, US oil inventories have sustained slight but regular rebuilds since the oil price high was hit - showing 11% less oil now compared to 20% six weeks ago. This was due to the dual effect of record Saudi oil output coinciding with some demand destruction.
Secondly, the USD has firmed against the euro and a large transfer of moneys from funds has impacted on oil's price.

What's happened to oil is blind Freddy stuff: It was inevitable, it was discussed, and it happened.
For me the only question of relevance is if there is a price dip under $100 that can be sustained: That's my trigger point for a re-entry.

Smurf1976 · 10 August 2008

Re: OIL AGAIN!

>Apocalypto< said:
what a surprise.

Wavepicker told me and u all, oil would fall gold will fall and aud eur will fall to usd on back of usd rising and fancy that, IT'S ALL HAPPENING

so after all the fights who's analysis is proving correct?

don't tell me as i know already

As a long term investor I wouldn't say that anything exciting has really happened. Price got ahead of itself and has now come back. If the price drops below the point it was at 12 months earlier then I'll be paying more attention.

Smurf1976 · 10 August 2008

Re: OIL AGAIN!

>Apocalypto< said:
what a surprise.

Wavepicker told me and u all, oil would fall gold will fall and aud eur will fall to usd on back of usd rising and fancy that, IT'S ALL HAPPENING

so after all the fights who's analysis is proving correct?

don't tell me as i know already

As a long term investor I wouldn't say that anything exciting has really happened. Price got ahead of itself and has now come back. If the price drops below the point it was at 12 months earlier then I'll be paying more attention.

Buster · 10 August 2008

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Hey Rederob,

rederob said:
Oil was significantly overbought as early as May, and a correction was on the cards for months thereafter [Stuff Deleted]
and it was probably whiskers who called the peak several days after it happened. .

Ha ha.. Yeah, Whiskers seems to cop a bit of a flogging in some of these threads, but I tend to think that he's got a far better grasp on what's going on than many here give him credit.. Interestingly it's the same individuals that find it necessary to try and cut him down time and time again..

rederob said:
What's happened to oil is blind Freddy stuff: It was inevitable, it was discussed, and it happened.
For me the only question of relevance is if there is a price dip under $100 that can be sustained: That's my trigger point for a re-entry.

Ohhh, I don't know about Blind Freddy.. I've read report after report tipping $200 a barrel within 2008..and some big names amongst them. Just goes to show that nobody really knows, just need to use some common sense.. (Apparently so rare these days, you're considered a Superhero if you posess this ability.. )

Unfortunately I'm not what you'd call a 'sophisticated investor' and therefore wouldn't know how to invest directly in commodities.. I'll probably have a go in the next couple of months or so (If I can generate the stomach for it..) When I do, you can be assured that the commodity of choice will plummet..

Regards,

Buster

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