Oil price discussion and analysis
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
I think so too, the correlation/linkage has just been broken. If the specs get a whiff of a global slowdown, as appears to happening, then I see the oil bull turning into a bear, for as long as this cycle plays out. It's a convincing double top on the chart. Whether or not you believe the peak oil argument it appears to be turning into semantics - if the US is slowing, there is going to be connected financial damage to the BRIC's no matter what, so oil demand will reduce.
The fundamentals for gold will still be there only their costs will literally halve due to the declining cost of fuel. I see oil testing sub $60 within the year.
I think so too, the correlation/linkage has just been broken. If the specs get a whiff of a global slowdown, as appears to happening, then I see the oil bull turning into a bear, for as long as this cycle plays out. It's a convincing double top on the chart. Whether or not you believe the peak oil argument it appears to be turning into semantics - if the US is slowing, there is going to be connected financial damage to the BRIC's no matter what, so oil demand will reduce.
The fundamentals for gold will still be there only their costs will literally halve due to the declining cost of fuel. I see oil testing sub $60 within the year.
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
I'm not sure history is any guide any more to seasonal strengths & weaknesses. Totally different climate of fear & emotion pervading now so precious metals in blue sky territory.
I'm not sure history is any guide any more to seasonal strengths & weaknesses. Totally different climate of fear & emotion pervading now so precious metals in blue sky territory.
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Everything will retest , I sure many chartists will agree there . But where are we retesting , at what level , this is important for hedgers like airlines . Just because a recession is on , it doesn't mean we're going back to horse and buggy , so we must assume that we will see a floor in oil soon , I don't think we've seen a ceiling yet . All we've done is get use to seeing oil at $100 at one time in a period . POG declined on higher oil too , but this time round I expect oil to find it's low and then proceed to rise again . Production is coping with high oil , parts of the finance sector isn't because it has speculated on its pricing movements and they can't all be winners . I have a list of $45 oil calls on the short side , they were blind as bats and probably just as poor now , but they have added to the infection , when covering .
Production has no choice , sure it can pass it on , but they've been absorbing as much of it as they could until they were forced to pass it on to the consumer .
When oil eats into GDP as it would have already , the data might actually start to mention it . In the mean time look for transport to lead , it was green in a sea of red on the US indices . That doesn't mean it's all over , but it does show signs of some growth extraction , how much will be interesting to see unwind in the data . The gold case is more a matter of instability in finance and geopolitical areas , higher oil has just emphasised it .
It's easy to find oils driving force , it's harder to find its chains , which are usually geopolitical . Policy and laws are the only thing that can hold oil back , but someone will have to absorb the swings , not many western governments are rushing to do that . In fact I find the opposite , just rhetoric and steam , but when we look closely the ones steaming the most are those who supported the policies , not those that implemented them .
Everything will retest , I sure many chartists will agree there . But where are we retesting , at what level , this is important for hedgers like airlines . Just because a recession is on , it doesn't mean we're going back to horse and buggy , so we must assume that we will see a floor in oil soon , I don't think we've seen a ceiling yet . All we've done is get use to seeing oil at $100 at one time in a period . POG declined on higher oil too , but this time round I expect oil to find it's low and then proceed to rise again . Production is coping with high oil , parts of the finance sector isn't because it has speculated on its pricing movements and they can't all be winners . I have a list of $45 oil calls on the short side , they were blind as bats and probably just as poor now , but they have added to the infection , when covering .
Production has no choice , sure it can pass it on , but they've been absorbing as much of it as they could until they were forced to pass it on to the consumer .
When oil eats into GDP as it would have already , the data might actually start to mention it . In the mean time look for transport to lead , it was green in a sea of red on the US indices . That doesn't mean it's all over , but it does show signs of some growth extraction , how much will be interesting to see unwind in the data . The gold case is more a matter of instability in finance and geopolitical areas , higher oil has just emphasised it .
It's easy to find oils driving force , it's harder to find its chains , which are usually geopolitical . Policy and laws are the only thing that can hold oil back , but someone will have to absorb the swings , not many western governments are rushing to do that . In fact I find the opposite , just rhetoric and steam , but when we look closely the ones steaming the most are those who supported the policies , not those that implemented them .
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
First, there is no break in the positive correlation between oil and gold, and the below chart - hourly - of the two shows how strong the correlation has been in the past 2 weeks.
Secondly, we have had more than 3 weeks of "meltdown", giving the specs a ringside seat of the global slowdown, yet oil has slumped less than 15% from its peak, while equity markets have declined more than 20%. If oil was truly bearish then it would be "writing-in" its future demise, rather than riding out the present slump.
Thirdly, while we cannot avoid global economic connections, it is moot to indicate why financial damage to BRICs will be reflected in their oil demand. The reality is that BRICs are increasing refining capacity because they are unable to meet demand. Put another way, there is a big gap in demand that has yet to filled within BRICs, so it is possible they will continue to push the supply curb through the present depressed economic cycle.
Finally, it's an absurd proposition to suggest that oil falling (to below $60) will halve the production costs for gold. This would only be true if we assumed that oil prices contributed 100% to the cost of gold, and then halved the present oil price to around $45. Methinks they are fairytales that won't come true.
What you think and what is, is different.
First, there is no break in the positive correlation between oil and gold, and the below chart - hourly - of the two shows how strong the correlation has been in the past 2 weeks.
Secondly, we have had more than 3 weeks of "meltdown", giving the specs a ringside seat of the global slowdown, yet oil has slumped less than 15% from its peak, while equity markets have declined more than 20%. If oil was truly bearish then it would be "writing-in" its future demise, rather than riding out the present slump.
Thirdly, while we cannot avoid global economic connections, it is moot to indicate why financial damage to BRICs will be reflected in their oil demand. The reality is that BRICs are increasing refining capacity because they are unable to meet demand. Put another way, there is a big gap in demand that has yet to filled within BRICs, so it is possible they will continue to push the supply curb through the present depressed economic cycle.
Finally, it's an absurd proposition to suggest that oil falling (to below $60) will halve the production costs for gold. This would only be true if we assumed that oil prices contributed 100% to the cost of gold, and then halved the present oil price to around $45. Methinks they are fairytales that won't come true.
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
I think $60 is wishing well stuff . Just the calcs in the options show a high Delta is on the price . We may have just seen the low , floor , bottom , but that is as much specualtion as the options are .
But if we look deeper into the driving force we will also note that many hedgers are just settling in or are about / waiting to . In the airlines it might pay to look into the models and haulage capabilities as something to judge against . These can be used much the same way the case schiller index is for US housing .
When we look at the US for guidance , it will take months for them to stop speculating on a recession before they are all singing the same tune .
That's when the spin will return enmasse to say recessions are healthy , blah , blah , blah .
The idea is to be able to whistle the tune before they all join in singing , once it's popular , we should have been set in nice Blueys and selling to them
Did anyone see VLO fall into $40's ...... yeeehaaa ? Will it hold or buy the open ? Time to drag out the old US oilers list , might need Micheal here too , some may have been gobbled up .
I think we could acheive a consenus , that the baltic dry index was affected by high oil prices , but it could be worth a view at those that mananged to keep margins contained . IMHO
I think $60 is wishing well stuff . Just the calcs in the options show a high Delta is on the price . We may have just seen the low , floor , bottom , but that is as much specualtion as the options are .
But if we look deeper into the driving force we will also note that many hedgers are just settling in or are about / waiting to . In the airlines it might pay to look into the models and haulage capabilities as something to judge against . These can be used much the same way the case schiller index is for US housing .
When we look at the US for guidance , it will take months for them to stop speculating on a recession before they are all singing the same tune .
That's when the spin will return enmasse to say recessions are healthy , blah , blah , blah .
The idea is to be able to whistle the tune before they all join in singing , once it's popular , we should have been set in nice Blueys and selling to them
Did anyone see VLO fall into $40's ...... yeeehaaa ? Will it hold or buy the open ? Time to drag out the old US oilers list , might need Micheal here too , some may have been gobbled up .
I think we could acheive a consenus , that the baltic dry index was affected by high oil prices , but it could be worth a view at those that mananged to keep margins contained . IMHO
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
The coal shortage in China and the nuclear plants in danger of shutdown in the US (one temporary shutdown has already occurred) due to drought will add to oil demand as the fuel of last resort even with zero economic growth.
As for the peak oil theory, IMO the only people who don't believe it are those who have never seen what happens in an acutal oil field or group of fields (eg a whole country). What most disagree on is the timing - 2005, 2008, 2010, 2015, 2030 and 2037 seem to be the popular dates.
The closest thing to a credible "if" argument I've seen is the notion that demand may decline and thus drive the production peak, not the reverse as is normally assumed, due to either outright economic collapse or switching to an alternative fuel.
IMO if we get an economy-driven oil price crash then cheap petrol will be the last of our worries.
If oil demand goes down by a significat amount then we're talking depression not recession or slowdown based on history.
The coal shortage in China and the nuclear plants in danger of shutdown in the US (one temporary shutdown has already occurred) due to drought will add to oil demand as the fuel of last resort even with zero economic growth.
As for the peak oil theory, IMO the only people who don't believe it are those who have never seen what happens in an acutal oil field or group of fields (eg a whole country). What most disagree on is the timing - 2005, 2008, 2010, 2015, 2030 and 2037 seem to be the popular dates.
The closest thing to a credible "if" argument I've seen is the notion that demand may decline and thus drive the production peak, not the reverse as is normally assumed, due to either outright economic collapse or switching to an alternative fuel.
IMO if we get an economy-driven oil price crash then cheap petrol will be the last of our worries.
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
The Baltic Dry Index is a straight out supply/demand-based indicator, with a touch of "future" speculation. That is, if there is a lot of dry commodity to be shipped, and not enough ships available, then lease prices go up.
Oil prices have a marginal impact on shipping costs as bunker fuel, which drives ships' engines, is nothing more than oil sludge, and is pretty cheap stuff.
If you mean something else, can you please elaborate.
I don't understand this comment.
The Baltic Dry Index is a straight out supply/demand-based indicator, with a touch of "future" speculation. That is, if there is a lot of dry commodity to be shipped, and not enough ships available, then lease prices go up.
Oil prices have a marginal impact on shipping costs as bunker fuel, which drives ships' engines, is nothing more than oil sludge, and is pretty cheap stuff.
If you mean something else, can you please elaborate.
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
A convenient timescale for sure. Go out a bit to something meaningful & the data/chart is compelling that there has been a disconnection of the correlation. Whether this will be sustained is another matter. The gold/oil ratio suggests one of them will yield at some point. See chart 1.
True, it hasn't regained it's highs has it? Looking at chart 2, which commodity has had a stellar run, and which is just starting out? Is that a head & shoulders forming, coinciding with the recent double top forming the head? How much is spec, how much is real?
So if China has a recession/slowdown (their government is actively trying to cool their economy) their oil usage will not go down? Simple maths suggests that if the global economy contracts then demand will reduce. Do you really think China is going to take up the slack?
I believe in the peak oil ideal, but a global reccession will maybe prolong the day of reconing, at least if we havn't found an alternative in the meantime. Oil at $100 is it's own worst enemy, only hastening attempts to find alternatives and not be at the mercy of the oil exporting countries.
Right again, bad choice of wording. It will have a significant positive impact on the gold miners bottom line then.
The object of trading/investing is to be objective - if the data changes then adjust the perspective. Then again, I might be calling it too soon, coz they are both (gold & oil) on a tear tonight
A convenient timescale for sure. Go out a bit to something meaningful & the data/chart is compelling that there has been a disconnection of the correlation. Whether this will be sustained is another matter. The gold/oil ratio suggests one of them will yield at some point. See chart 1.
True, it hasn't regained it's highs has it? Looking at chart 2, which commodity has had a stellar run, and which is just starting out? Is that a head & shoulders forming, coinciding with the recent double top forming the head? How much is spec, how much is real?
So if China has a recession/slowdown (their government is actively trying to cool their economy) their oil usage will not go down? Simple maths suggests that if the global economy contracts then demand will reduce. Do you really think China is going to take up the slack?
I believe in the peak oil ideal, but a global reccession will maybe prolong the day of reconing, at least if we havn't found an alternative in the meantime. Oil at $100 is it's own worst enemy, only hastening attempts to find alternatives and not be at the mercy of the oil exporting countries.
Right again, bad choice of wording. It will have a significant positive impact on the gold miners bottom line then
.The object of trading/investing is to be objective - if the data changes then adjust the perspective. Then again, I might be calling it too soon, coz they are both (gold & oil) on a tear tonight
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Inflation .
It's in our faces everyday on shop shelves , inflation , sorry perhaps the syntax needed rearranging . If shipping want to save on fuel , they'll hug a coastline and I'd bet they were the first cabs off the rank to hedge . Bunker fuel accounts for around 25-30% of the up front cost to shipping . Somewhere in the equation it [ oil costs ] comes into play , but that's a case by case study .
The impact from the high oil prices , is starting to show up in growth as a stymie , but we've also had semaphores in the price rises , such as coffee and sugar etc. , the ores have been the only respite this year in a way , iron ore contracts are now being negotiated higher , the same I expect for coal .
The dry cargo prices are a good measuring stick once on shore , because there prices are driven by inflation and a markets sentiment .
If you want to find something that affects both the BDI and the consumers " timely fashion delivery price " , that's easy just look out a window . Then you have demand , a simple look around the power stations want list for coal could be a starting point . That affects nearly half of the demand on top of it all alone .
The above mentioned and aggression / collisions etc. , in areas known to be choke points for shipping also affect prices , paired with high oil prices , it makes a hard pill for most industry to swallow .
We have no choice there , we just get it shoved down our throats . But inflation has seen demand slow , regearing towards higher prices is the key , but not the end . Transport was leading the way in a sea of red on th eUS boards , I even saw DRYS price moving , noted it was trading around nine times to earnings , probably 4-5 times future earnings . Thought it was cheap compared to others in the sector . But that's just an observation along the way . If you want to see a turn around watch transport , that's where it will start IMHO .
Inflation .
It's in our faces everyday on shop shelves , inflation , sorry perhaps the syntax needed rearranging . If shipping want to save on fuel , they'll hug a coastline and I'd bet they were the first cabs off the rank to hedge . Bunker fuel accounts for around 25-30% of the up front cost to shipping . Somewhere in the equation it [ oil costs ] comes into play , but that's a case by case study .
The impact from the high oil prices , is starting to show up in growth as a stymie , but we've also had semaphores in the price rises , such as coffee and sugar etc. , the ores have been the only respite this year in a way , iron ore contracts are now being negotiated higher , the same I expect for coal .
The dry cargo prices are a good measuring stick once on shore , because there prices are driven by inflation and a markets sentiment .
If you want to find something that affects both the BDI and the consumers " timely fashion delivery price " , that's easy just look out a window . Then you have demand , a simple look around the power stations want list for coal could be a starting point . That affects nearly half of the demand on top of it all alone .
The above mentioned and aggression / collisions etc. , in areas known to be choke points for shipping also affect prices , paired with high oil prices , it makes a hard pill for most industry to swallow .
We have no choice there , we just get it shoved down our throats . But inflation has seen demand slow , regearing towards higher prices is the key , but not the end . Transport was leading the way in a sea of red on th eUS boards , I even saw DRYS price moving , noted it was trading around nine times to earnings , probably 4-5 times future earnings . Thought it was cheap compared to others in the sector . But that's just an observation along the way . If you want to see a turn around watch transport , that's where it will start IMHO .
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
What is markedly different is the relative movement in prices, which are clearly favouring gold for the moment.
Gold is running mostly on fear.
Your "simple maths" is not based on a reality reflecting oil supply and demand fundamentals. The internal demand drivers of BRIC nations are incapable of meeting present requirements, so there is no issue of taking up the slack to deal with, at all. On the other side of the equation, first world nations are putting millions more vehicles onto roads each year, so it will take a global meltdown, not a global slowdown, to put oil prices into a (short term) slide.
We already have lots of "alternatives" for oil in various applications. Few of them are cost effective, but may be so when oil prices double.
If the data changes, the data changes.
Data changes are an outcome of a myriad of driving forces, and apart from black boxes reacting to other black boxes, data changes have little impact on key driving forces.
If oil's fundamentals change, then I might change perspective.
No, the correlation is intact and your indexed chart is a blatant misuse of statistics/data/information.
What is markedly different is the relative movement in prices, which are clearly favouring gold for the moment.
Oil is running mostly on fundamental.
Gold is running mostly on fear.
I have heard this line trotted out for the past 3 years.
Your "simple maths" is not based on a reality reflecting oil supply and demand fundamentals. The internal demand drivers of BRIC nations are incapable of meeting present requirements, so there is no issue of taking up the slack to deal with, at all. On the other side of the equation, first world nations are putting millions more vehicles onto roads each year, so it will take a global meltdown, not a global slowdown, to put oil prices into a (short term) slide.
What is your "meantime" period?
We already have lots of "alternatives" for oil in various applications. Few of them are cost effective, but may be so when oil prices double.
Hmmmmmm.........The object of trading/investing is to be objective - if the data changes then adjust the perspective. Then again, I might be calling it too soon, coz they are both (gold & oil) on a tear tonight
If the data changes, the data changes.
Data changes are an outcome of a myriad of driving forces, and apart from black boxes reacting to other black boxes, data changes have little impact on key driving forces.
If oil's fundamentals change, then I might change perspective.
Kauri
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
oil from nigh on $100 bb to near $86bb.... what would you need to call a short term slide????
oil is going to meet some of the prices quoted when ... next week.. next year... next decade???
calling peak oil is as ingenious as calling peak analysts... we don't make them anymore, just cheep?? alternatives...
of course the price of oil is going to increase.. exactly the same as any finite resource that is not readily replaceable... but when.. my old father once told me to back Frontiersman, he was going to win a city race... and he did... eventually.. (ahhh loved the 66/1 )..
a coorrelation between oil and any other commodity is only use full so long as it lasts.. my limited experience tells me that once it becomes obvious to the masses it usually breaks down..
how much will my favourite bottle of plonk cost next year... should I stock up now... or will it rain...
Hicupping...
..............Kauri
oil from nigh on $100 bb to near $86bb.... what would you need to call a short term slide????
oil is going to meet some of the prices quoted when ... next week.. next year... next decade???
calling peak oil is as ingenious as calling peak analysts... we don't make them anymore, just cheep?? alternatives...
of course the price of oil is going to increase.. exactly the same as any finite resource that is not readily replaceable... but when.. my old father once told me to back Frontiersman, he was going to win a city race... and he did... eventually.. (ahhh loved the 66/1 )..
a coorrelation between oil and any other commodity is only use full so long as it lasts.. my limited experience tells me that once it becomes obvious to the masses it usually breaks down..
how much will my favourite bottle of plonk cost next year... should I stock up now... or will it rain...
Hicupping...
..............Kauri
numbercruncher
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
I still maintain that in the medium term there is loads of evidence pointing to downward pressure on Oil prices.
I fully understand and beleive peak Oil and clearly see demand growth short term as the masses clamber into the Industrilised world.
But on the downside a few things.
Car manufacturers seem to be in a desperate race to be pumping out high mileage, electric etc cars off the production line, many examples around , a French company starts production this summer of an Air powered car, Google founders started Tesla and already produce Electric sportscars - The only reason we dont see this stuff on bubblevision very much is (IMHO) that it would potentially crash the market of new car sales while people "hold off" on purchases if they believed Petrol powered cars where on the verge of redundancy.
The US has obviously declared war on Oil, planting out millions of acres of prime farm land with Bio fuel, passing through congress a mandate to make all cars 35mpg from 25mpg within years.
The tar sands of Canada which is a massive, massive resource apparently has a production cost of 33$pbl - effectively setting a ceiling on oil prices ?
Public sentiment - 100s of millions of people concerned with climate change want to reduce their carbon footprint.
The Middle East seems accutely aware of the fact the Oil age will at some point end, hence the huge money going into alternative Industries and sovereign wealth funds etc buying large stakes in foreign corporations.
Cheers
I still maintain that in the medium term there is loads of evidence pointing to downward pressure on Oil prices.
I fully understand and beleive peak Oil and clearly see demand growth short term as the masses clamber into the Industrilised world.
But on the downside a few things.
Car manufacturers seem to be in a desperate race to be pumping out high mileage, electric etc cars off the production line, many examples around , a French company starts production this summer of an Air powered car, Google founders started Tesla and already produce Electric sportscars - The only reason we dont see this stuff on bubblevision very much is (IMHO) that it would potentially crash the market of new car sales while people "hold off" on purchases if they believed Petrol powered cars where on the verge of redundancy.
The US has obviously declared war on Oil, planting out millions of acres of prime farm land with Bio fuel, passing through congress a mandate to make all cars 35mpg from 25mpg within years.
The tar sands of Canada which is a massive, massive resource apparently has a production cost of 33$pbl - effectively setting a ceiling on oil prices ?
Public sentiment - 100s of millions of people concerned with climate change want to reduce their carbon footprint.
The Middle East seems accutely aware of the fact the Oil age will at some point end, hence the huge money going into alternative Industries and sovereign wealth funds etc buying large stakes in foreign corporations.
Cheers
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Oil might decline further in the short term, but, you'd be foolish to think it will be down there for long regardless of whether the US goes into ression or not.
Why, because oil is used to make many more products than just fuel. Population growth of the world increases yearly at an alarming rate and with this growth comes more demand.
Countries like China and India are evolving and becoming more westernised, this westernisation requires oil and lots of the stuff. Other countries will follow this trend.
Sooner or later the Saudis will announce they can't increase output, who knows when it will happen but it will signal the beginning of new times for oil.
Talk of alternate energies replacing the oil in the short term is just that, talk. Its going to take genius and invention to pull us out of the mess we are in.
I don't see demand for oil slowing much, maybe i'll be wrong but, if you do the math and look at simple supply and demand, world instability, increasing extraction expenses & scarcity of large new oil field finds its a strong argument for prices remaining high.
Go Oil, JW
Oil might decline further in the short term, but, you'd be foolish to think it will be down there for long regardless of whether the US goes into ression or not.
Why, because oil is used to make many more products than just fuel. Population growth of the world increases yearly at an alarming rate and with this growth comes more demand.
Countries like China and India are evolving and becoming more westernised, this westernisation requires oil and lots of the stuff. Other countries will follow this trend.
Sooner or later the Saudis will announce they can't increase output, who knows when it will happen but it will signal the beginning of new times for oil.
Talk of alternate energies replacing the oil in the short term is just that, talk. Its going to take genius and invention to pull us out of the mess we are in.
I don't see demand for oil slowing much, maybe i'll be wrong but, if you do the math and look at simple supply and demand, world instability, increasing extraction expenses & scarcity of large new oil field finds its a strong argument for prices remaining high.
Go Oil, JW
Wysiwyg
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Does anyone imagine that China is going to want less after this massive expansion has stabilised?This new infrastructure is gonna need fuel to `stay alive`.
Oil might decline further in the short term,
I don't see demand for oil slowing much, maybe i'll be wrong but, if you do the math and look at simple supply and demand, world instability, increasing extraction expenses & scarcity of large new oil field finds its a strong argument for prices remaining high.
Go Oil, JW
Does anyone imagine that China is going to want less after this massive expansion has stabilised?This new infrastructure is gonna need fuel to `stay alive`.
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Some of the products made from oil
http://www.anwr.org/features/oiluses.htm
http://www.3k88.com/products.htm
http://www.seed.slb.com/qa2/FAQView.cfm?ID=905
I agree that people will want to decrease their carbon footprint but i doubt many would know that these products listed here are made from oil...................
They will still drive to work, go on holidays, buy products that need to be transported. You can try all you like but we have built our society around oil, i dont see how you can avoid using it.
JW
Some of the products made from oil
http://www.anwr.org/features/oiluses.htm
http://www.3k88.com/products.htm
http://www.seed.slb.com/qa2/FAQView.cfm?ID=905
I agree that people will want to decrease their carbon footprint but i doubt many would know that these products listed here are made from oil...................
They will still drive to work, go on holidays, buy products that need to be transported. You can try all you like but we have built our society around oil, i dont see how you can avoid using it.
JW
numbercruncher
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Worlds population growth peaked in 1960, and seems to be dropping, if it remained the same from this day forth doubling would take about 60 years, but I suspect growth will continue falling, but its growth none the less.
At current prices it is clearly profitable to pursue on a larger scale " heavy Oil " , short term shocks , sure , I can see doubling of prices for Wars etc ... but so much downward pressure (well stagnation or limited growth) from my perspective on the situation.
Worlds population growth peaked in 1960, and seems to be dropping, if it remained the same from this day forth doubling would take about 60 years, but I suspect growth will continue falling, but its growth none the less.
At current prices it is clearly profitable to pursue on a larger scale " heavy Oil " , short term shocks , sure , I can see doubling of prices for Wars etc ... but so much downward pressure (well stagnation or limited growth) from my perspective on the situation.
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
You need to crunch some numbers.
Annual population growth has not fallen below 75 million for the past 20 years. The rate might be declining, but the actual total numbers each year have increased recently.
On the oil front, what is Canada's contribution - from oil sands - to global total annual oil output?
Will Canada's contribution lead to an oversupply in oil at any point in the foreseeable future?
On the vehicle front, what number of electric/hybrid cars hit the roads last year?
What percentage of total was that?
While there may a perception that demand for oil might slow, there is very little statistically that will support such a case, short of a global depression.
Kauri
The "correlation" is important because it supports the price of gold, not vice versa.
A meaningful disconnection of the oil:gold correlation is most likely to see gold prices decline and may well be the trigger for gold's next spell in the wilderness.
I have responded to your other points accordingly.
numbercruncher
You need to crunch some numbers.
Annual population growth has not fallen below 75 million for the past 20 years. The rate might be declining, but the actual total numbers each year have increased recently.
On the oil front, what is Canada's contribution - from oil sands - to global total annual oil output?
Will Canada's contribution lead to an oversupply in oil at any point in the foreseeable future?
On the vehicle front, what number of electric/hybrid cars hit the roads last year?
What percentage of total was that?
While there may a perception that demand for oil might slow, there is very little statistically that will support such a case, short of a global depression.
Kauri
The "correlation" is important because it supports the price of gold, not vice versa.
A meaningful disconnection of the oil:gold correlation is most likely to see gold prices decline and may well be the trigger for gold's next spell in the wilderness.
I have responded to your other points accordingly.
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Thanks for posting that image Numbercruncher.
I didnt realise there was so much heavy oil proportianately to conventional crude.
Just on the population growth, probably the most important thing is that the current population is using more oil or oil derived products than what it was in the past. I would be interested to know oil usage per person, now, compared to 1960.
I can only think we would be using more per person than ever before?
This is important if looking at population, because you could have a reduction in population size/growth but an increase in oil usage?
Something to ponder anyway....................
Thanks for posting that image Numbercruncher.
I didnt realise there was so much heavy oil proportianately to conventional crude.
Just on the population growth, probably the most important thing is that the current population is using more oil or oil derived products than what it was in the past. I would be interested to know oil usage per person, now, compared to 1960.
I can only think we would be using more per person than ever before?
This is important if looking at population, because you could have a reduction in population size/growth but an increase in oil usage?
Something to ponder anyway....................
numbercruncher
Beware of Dropbears
- Joined
- 12 October 2006
- Posts
- 3,136
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- 1
Re: OIL AGAIN!
Quite a few, but its going forward that we will see the serious numbers emerging
As an example, The Air Car I mentioned earlier thats due to come into production this European summer, has a AUD equivalent cost of 6 to 7k , that alone will make them massively popular.
Seems the World bank somewhat agrees with my view, Im not saying Oil is a bad long term investment by any means, but I think it will be far from stella as it has been in the past. I just look at the evidence and see Medium term downward pressure on prices. I maybe wrong and Im happy with being wrong !
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,321229,00.html
Quite a few, but its going forward that we will see the serious numbers emerging
, this was out of a total of 16.14m units - so like 2pc but its growing!. Alot of Public sentiment is clearly with alternative energy, last year Toyota Prius sales grew 69pc! Ethanol use to growing rapidly too.
As an example, The Air Car I mentioned earlier thats due to come into production this European summer, has a AUD equivalent cost of 6 to 7k , that alone will make them massively popular.
Seems the World bank somewhat agrees with my view, Im not saying Oil is a bad long term investment by any means, but I think it will be far from stella as it has been in the past. I just look at the evidence and see Medium term downward pressure on prices. I maybe wrong and Im happy with being wrong !
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,321229,00.html
