Oil price discussion and analysis
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
"ASX should one held if one wants to be long gas"
You have to ask yourself where? (Geographically speaking).
US? Have a look at AMU.
AUS? There is AOE but be careful. They have good international growth prospects but a lot of their AUS production has been sold at low gas price contracts.
Euroland? (this is the region to go for IMHO). EPG.
"ASX should one held if one wants to be long gas"
You have to ask yourself where? (Geographically speaking).
US? Have a look at AMU.
AUS? There is AOE but be careful. They have good international growth prospects but a lot of their AUS production has been sold at low gas price contracts.
Euroland? (this is the region to go for IMHO). EPG.
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
I had a $72 bottom median number in my figures on oil , I'm a bit perplexed by the latest slow down in prices , because after numerous calculations , I no longer have that in the solutions . The lowest median I have now is $81 .
That is the lead number in a tranch , 81/83/85/86/87 ( this is were the ratios become lower too [ the buying dip ? ] )
The only 72 I have is in the count line now , but note the above line is not yet complete no 80 or 84 . this could represent a $4 swing , but that is an assumption and I'm only prepared to consider it at present .
The countline has reached 76 so far .
I had a $72 bottom median number in my figures on oil , I'm a bit perplexed by the latest slow down in prices , because after numerous calculations , I no longer have that in the solutions . The lowest median I have now is $81 .
That is the lead number in a tranch , 81/83/85/86/87 ( this is were the ratios become lower too [ the buying dip ? ] )
The only 72 I have is in the count line now , but note the above line is not yet complete no 80 or 84 . this could represent a $4 swing , but that is an assumption and I'm only prepared to consider it at present .
The countline has reached 76 so far .
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Perhaps I can fill the gaps and we can have something equally as meaningless.
Lots of numbers.
Perhaps I can fill the gaps and we can have something equally as meaningless.
Re: OIL AGAIN!
Then maybe we can look at the oil chart for some ideas.
Currently 1st support is at $90, and 2nd support is at $88.
Head and shoulders formed for 30min chart. After taking profit on my shorts for oil, I'll be looking to short again on slight rebound.
Then maybe we can look at the oil chart for some ideas.
Currently 1st support is at $90, and 2nd support is at $88.
Head and shoulders formed for 30min chart. After taking profit on my shorts for oil, I'll be looking to short again on slight rebound.
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Queensland gas company,....
They are producing coal seam methane gas which is likly going to be eventually feed into the sydney grid to replace the declining moomba feilds,... they are also going to be building a gas fired power station that is fed by there gas fields so at different times of the day if the electricity spot price peaks they can up the elctricity production but is the gas price increases they can lower electricity production and feed more gas into the grid,
Also as a by product of the gas production they produce tonnes of water which the are exploring ways to sell into the drought ridden communities arounf there area of operations, This company is already producing gas and may be paying a dividend (double check that htough I am not 100% sure).
Queensland gas company,....
They are producing coal seam methane gas which is likly going to be eventually feed into the sydney grid to replace the declining moomba feilds,... they are also going to be building a gas fired power station that is fed by there gas fields so at different times of the day if the electricity spot price peaks they can up the elctricity production but is the gas price increases they can lower electricity production and feed more gas into the grid,
Also as a by product of the gas production they produce tonnes of water which the are exploring ways to sell into the drought ridden communities arounf there area of operations, This company is already producing gas and may be paying a dividend (double check that htough I am not 100% sure).
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
A link:
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-oil100_0711.html
And a chart:
A link:
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-oil100_0711.html
And a chart:
Attachments
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Oil may hit some where between $80 - $85 before 10th of march.
But I still stand firm on our original bet,... I don't think it will drop below $80 ever again.
I know thats a big call but I am pretty confident.
Oil may hit some where between $80 - $85 before 10th of march.
But I still stand firm on our original bet,... I don't think it will drop below $80 ever again.
I know thats a big call but I am pretty confident.
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Go for it , but will you be calculating it on a steady state or periodic behaviour ?
Each price change is random and unpredictable ........ but instead of looking for a price area , I look for sequence over noted periods of distribution . These can be measured by their curves be it monthly , annually , or even weekly . It is fractals and a scaling factor that is the basis on the equations , these bring out the formula . It's just another form of physics .
But of course it's meaningless .
Go for it , but will you be calculating it on a steady state or periodic behaviour ?
Each price change is random and unpredictable ........ but instead of looking for a price area , I look for sequence over noted periods of distribution . These can be measured by their curves be it monthly , annually , or even weekly . It is fractals and a scaling factor that is the basis on the equations , these bring out the formula . It's just another form of physics .
But of course it's meaningless .
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Although I am not "calculating" a price, if I were, neither steady state nor periodic behaviour functions would be useful.
Future oil prices will be over $200 within 5 years and if your equations cannot factor that figure in, then your present calculations are flawed.
I assume you are familiar with Taleb's views on probability and randomness and, if so, will have an idea of what I mean.
Tysonboss reckons there's a Maginot Line at $80, which is close to your low point, and very close to the ema support line in my earlier-posted chart.
Speaking mathematically, I have a probability case for oil hitting $60 again based on current chart data.
It's an exceptionally low probability, albiet within the bounds of previous price movements.
If it works for you, fine.
Although I am not "calculating" a price, if I were, neither steady state nor periodic behaviour functions would be useful.
Future oil prices will be over $200 within 5 years and if your equations cannot factor that figure in, then your present calculations are flawed.
I assume you are familiar with Taleb's views on probability and randomness and, if so, will have an idea of what I mean.
Tysonboss reckons there's a Maginot Line at $80, which is close to your low point, and very close to the ema support line in my earlier-posted chart.
Speaking mathematically, I have a probability case for oil hitting $60 again based on current chart data.
It's an exceptionally low probability, albiet within the bounds of previous price movements.
Re: OIL AGAIN!
Would anyone care give opinion on ETF USO ? Someone mentions that it is widely criticised. Any input ? I am currently doing some research on exposure to oil sector, and found these ETF in US market.
XLE - Energy Select SPDR,
IXC - ishares S&P Global Energy,
both ETF invest in Energy company with names like EXXON, Shell, BP etc. Both perform roughly the same for the last 3 years. (30 % 3 years, 27% 5 years, in US$ term)
I want to invest 50% in global company 50% in ASX listed shares. STO, WPL, OSH are 3 candidates on my list.
What are your guys' views on these ?
Would anyone care give opinion on ETF USO ? Someone mentions that it is widely criticised. Any input ? I am currently doing some research on exposure to oil sector, and found these ETF in US market.
XLE - Energy Select SPDR,
IXC - ishares S&P Global Energy,
both ETF invest in Energy company with names like EXXON, Shell, BP etc. Both perform roughly the same for the last 3 years. (30 % 3 years, 27% 5 years, in US$ term)
I want to invest 50% in global company 50% in ASX listed shares. STO, WPL, OSH are 3 candidates on my list.
What are your guys' views on these ?
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
I think you're assuming I only use that as a basis , instead it is used as an argement to prove calculations wrong , I don't look for what shows the sequence is right , I look for anything that will show it to be wrong .
In reference to pioneers in their fields , I take a page out of Mandelbrots , Lorenz and Von Koch . I apply these to my system calculations and it's the curves that I measure , the ratios used are my own , but my findings are different to many to date . Now if I can use it to get within 2 to 3 points , I thinkk that's marvellous and do jigs I assure you . If I could get it to 4 points I would probably pass out .
But my case is that everything can be measured , even the VIX movements , this started the whole thing for me , I thought they had taken an obscure index to many and found a way to trade it for everyone .
I'm trying to create the same thing , it's not a predictomatic , but function is a factor that science itself says I must at least look at , periodic and steady state are an arguement that must be looked at IMO .
When it boils down to it all , what I'm trying to do , without meaning to as it may be a possible by-product , is patterns of self similar structure , where and I can only say possibly , show a dependence on a sequence levels or price etc. over many structures based againsts it initial condition/s .
This theory is put against another on distribution , which I won't go into and there are others , some more important , one I call the sentiment index , one that can be used as a measure over all sectors and hopefully anything else you can trade . This has taken years , I started in 1998 . One day it could be used effectively after complete backtesting has been done . But that too is in the future , right now it's make hay whilst the sunshines .
...and Red , nothing derog meant at all M8 .
PS... if I tell you more I'd have to kill you
I think you're assuming I only use that as a basis , instead it is used as an argement to prove calculations wrong , I don't look for what shows the sequence is right , I look for anything that will show it to be wrong .
In reference to pioneers in their fields , I take a page out of Mandelbrots , Lorenz and Von Koch . I apply these to my system calculations and it's the curves that I measure , the ratios used are my own , but my findings are different to many to date . Now if I can use it to get within 2 to 3 points , I thinkk that's marvellous and do jigs I assure you . If I could get it to 4 points I would probably pass out .
But my case is that everything can be measured , even the VIX movements , this started the whole thing for me , I thought they had taken an obscure index to many and found a way to trade it for everyone .
I'm trying to create the same thing , it's not a predictomatic , but function is a factor that science itself says I must at least look at , periodic and steady state are an arguement that must be looked at IMO .
When it boils down to it all , what I'm trying to do , without meaning to as it may be a possible by-product , is patterns of self similar structure , where and I can only say possibly , show a dependence on a sequence levels or price etc. over many structures based againsts it initial condition/s .
This theory is put against another on distribution , which I won't go into and there are others , some more important , one I call the sentiment index , one that can be used as a measure over all sectors and hopefully anything else you can trade . This has taken years , I started in 1998 . One day it could be used effectively after complete backtesting has been done . But that too is in the future , right now it's make hay whilst the sunshines .
...and Red , nothing derog meant at all M8 .
PS... if I tell you more I'd have to kill you
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
If you have other approaches that work for you, good.
My earlier point about "meaningless" was exactly that, except perhaps for you and your secret formula.
That fact that a number does not appear in your formula has no bearing on whether or not it will come up in reality: And I specifically now refer to a calculated "bottom median number" and an actual low oil price that is possible to be reached at a future date.
That is, there is a clear distinction between a "calculated" median (using your approach) and the next meaningful low oil price that the markets will determine.
The other distinction is between probability and predictability.
Your formula attempts to "predict" numbers that, for you, have meaning.
The probability that another number may be a better number to use, yet does not fit into your formula, is only something you can discover in retrospect.
These mathematical aspects, however, digress from general trading/investing themes in this thread unless you tell us how you intend to use the numbers you generate.
For example, what is the significance of your $72 bottom median number?
Or, if $80 and $84 don't come up, are the numbers discounted somehow?
I read and re-read you post to see what could be useful.
Having a wide range of bottom median numbers didn't do much for me, and a $72 figure that was no longer there made even less sense.
From an investing perspective my present trigger price for re-entry into oil equities is $85. But in the present market I would not re-enter unless oil dipped below the annual average price, which is nearer $75.
Unless history does not repeat, the charts tell me that at some future point the oil price will again dip to (and below) its annual average. I will then look at market sentiment to see what's worth doing.
I think using steady state approaches to calculating time-based phenomena is silly.I think you're assuming I only use that as a basis , instead it is used as an argement to prove calculations wrong , I don't look for what shows the sequence is right , I look for anything that will show it to be wrong .
In reference to pioneers in their fields , I take a page out of Mandelbrots , Lorenz and Von Koch . I apply these to my system calculations and it's the curves that I measure , the ratios used are my own , but my findings are different to many to date . Now if I can use it to get within 2 to 3 points , I thinkk that's marvellous and do jigs I assure you . If I could get it to 4 points I would probably pass out .
But my case is that everything can be measured , even the VIX movements , this started the whole thing for me , I thought they had taken an obscure index to many and found a way to trade it for everyone .
I'm trying to create the same thing , it's not a predictomatic , but function is a factor that science itself says I must at least look at , periodic and steady state are an arguement that must be looked at IMO .
When it boils down to it all , what I'm trying to do , without meaning to as it may be a possible by-product , is patterns of self similar structure , where and I can only say possibly , show a dependence on a sequence levels or price etc. over many structures based againsts it initial condition/s .
This theory is put against another on distribution , which I won't go into and there are others , some more important , one I call the sentiment index , one that can be used as a measure over all sectors and hopefully anything else you can trade . This has taken years , I started in 1998 . One day it could be used effectively after complete backtesting has been done . But that too is in the future , right now it's make hay whilst the sunshines .
...and Red , nothing derog meant at all M8 .
PS... if I tell you more I'd have to kill you
If you have other approaches that work for you, good.
My earlier point about "meaningless" was exactly that, except perhaps for you and your secret formula.
That fact that a number does not appear in your formula has no bearing on whether or not it will come up in reality: And I specifically now refer to a calculated "bottom median number" and an actual low oil price that is possible to be reached at a future date.
That is, there is a clear distinction between a "calculated" median (using your approach) and the next meaningful low oil price that the markets will determine.
The other distinction is between probability and predictability.
Your formula attempts to "predict" numbers that, for you, have meaning.
The probability that another number may be a better number to use, yet does not fit into your formula, is only something you can discover in retrospect.
These mathematical aspects, however, digress from general trading/investing themes in this thread unless you tell us how you intend to use the numbers you generate.
For example, what is the significance of your $72 bottom median number?
Or, if $80 and $84 don't come up, are the numbers discounted somehow?
I read and re-read you post to see what could be useful.
Having a wide range of bottom median numbers didn't do much for me, and a $72 figure that was no longer there made even less sense.
From an investing perspective my present trigger price for re-entry into oil equities is $85. But in the present market I would not re-enter unless oil dipped below the annual average price, which is nearer $75.
Unless history does not repeat, the charts tell me that at some future point the oil price will again dip to (and below) its annual average. I will then look at market sentiment to see what's worth doing.
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Okay , Red .
The recent conditions have been the perfect testing ground on the indices , I have applied it over several instruments including 3 stocks entered , where a curve has been measured and a sequence found , the range of that sequence has been accurate to within in 3 points so far .
But as you believe it flawed I will no longer post on the matter .
Okay , Red .
The recent conditions have been the perfect testing ground on the indices , I have applied it over several instruments including 3 stocks entered , where a curve has been measured and a sequence found , the range of that sequence has been accurate to within in 3 points so far .
But as you believe it flawed I will no longer post on the matter .
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
And you didn't answer any of the questions I asked.
If something works for you and you don't want to share it, then don't.
If you want to make comprehensible and useful contributions to the oil thread, then that option is always open.
You have completely missed my point.
And you didn't answer any of the questions I asked.
If something works for you and you don't want to share it, then don't.
If you want to make comprehensible and useful contributions to the oil thread, then that option is always open.
numbercruncher
Beware of Dropbears
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
No hissy fits aloud .....
Keep posting or we will have to sacrifice your pet hamster to the capitalist gods.
Thankyou
No hissy fits aloud .....
Keep posting or we will have to sacrifice your pet hamster to the capitalist gods.
Thankyou
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Fair enough NC .
The other night there was what I thought techies called a divergence in the RSI and the weekly . It looked extremely overbought , but ........ I've thrown reams of calcs away on projections ..... up .
My count has reached 77 , but to pre-empt price declines oil was $94 , I discounted $2 from that and kept it at even dollar prices , there is a distinct change in the sequence doing it this way , but I get 83 and 84 out of 7/12 relationships inverse to it ....... normally one would think the oil decline would affect POG negatively , I think it might be a positive this time round .
Fair enough NC .
The other night there was what I thought techies called a divergence in the RSI and the weekly . It looked extremely overbought , but ........ I've thrown reams of calcs away on projections ..... up .
My count has reached 77 , but to pre-empt price declines oil was $94 , I discounted $2 from that and kept it at even dollar prices , there is a distinct change in the sequence doing it this way , but I get 83 and 84 out of 7/12 relationships inverse to it ....... normally one would think the oil decline would affect POG negatively , I think it might be a positive this time round .
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
The importance of the correlation hinges on the fact that oil prices are significantly "demand" driven, so the Citi Bank Carnage of $20b writedowns and 4000 layoffs was a catalyst for the decline affecting US consumer confidence. Conversely, gold is spectacularly "speculatively" driven at the moment and last night's decline was on the back of a strengthening greenback.
If your relationships were not significantly time-lagged, then last night's falls of over 2% for both oil and gold suggest a strong positive correlation continues.
The importance of the correlation hinges on the fact that oil prices are significantly "demand" driven, so the Citi Bank Carnage of $20b writedowns and 4000 layoffs was a catalyst for the decline affecting US consumer confidence. Conversely, gold is spectacularly "speculatively" driven at the moment and last night's decline was on the back of a strengthening greenback.
