I don't think ARQ got a good hedge price:Don't count on it. A lot will spend all the profit on the search for more oil. Take ARQ as an example where I believe they will continue the search until they spend the last dollar earned. Remember the directors don't need a dividend, they pay themselves regardless and the staff are well paid. Shareholders are considered a necessary evil by the way they are often treated.
It's hedging affects over a quarter of production for next 5 years.On 24 April 2007 the Company entered into a oil price swap covering 1.275 million barrels deliverable over five years at a fixed price of US$68.15 per barrel.
Hi Lioness,
That's the million dollar question....................
They have to already be a producer to benefit from the recent massive increase per barrel of oil and have calculated there expected revenue at about $55 per barrel and be getting significantly above this.
If you aint already producing the stuff then price increases only affect projected revenue. This is also good but, my thoughts are that the bigger SP increases will happen to the oilers who are announcing large increases to their 2007/2008 profits
So this being the case, i doubt the spec stocks will benefit as much as the producers. As it has been pointed for those who explore for and find oil in the future it will come at greater expense. Therefore, my guess is that those who will make the greatest profit from recent rises will be the current producers.
As for timing, see this link for company reporting requirements 2008 - should give you an idea of when some of this news may begin to flow into the market.
http://www.asx.com.au/research/pdf/company_reporting_dates_2008.pdf
My view is that you will see interest in oil stocks increase this year and i would expect that before end June 2008 there will be a shift towards this sector.
If we get a further spike in oil prices towards $120.00 per barrel then this will really catch peoples eye. The trigger will come soon, i dont know when exactly but just look at what has happened this year................supply of sufficient cheap oil is going to be a huge problem, the world is as unstable as ever, we have taken all the cheap stuff already, China and India are growing like mad.
Go......JW, you bet ya, i plan to be pimping hares by years end!!!
Onassis would be proud!!
Lioness,
CUE has two wells currently producing oil and will start production later this year from a third well called Maari. They are also involved in exploration and thats the speccy side of the business i guess.
Maari is much larger than the two exisitng wells and will increase production significantly.
Have a read of the CUE thread for more info.
Good luck with INP
http://business.smh.com.au/oil-prices-to-remain-high-says-opec/20080106-1kgb.htmlAlgeria's Oil Minister, Chakib Khelil, OPEC's new president, has ruled out any production increases, saying crude oil prices are likely to remain high for three months.
Crude oil prices, which briefly topped $US100 a barrel for the first time last week, should "stabilise" in the second quarter, Mr Khelil said.
The increase in market crude prices "is probably going to remain through the end of the first quarter of 2008", he said.
In short, their quota system works partly on claimed reserves. The more you claim, the more you are allowed to pump and the less other OPEC members are allowed to pump.Hey Smurf i have read about and heard this several times as well. It makes sense.
I heard they can not be trusted with any of their figures relating to future projected oil reserves and are very prone to exaggeration?
I cant recall the reason
In ending I must add , gas is as volatile as oil and gold , sometimes it just doesn't seem so .
I've missed my POG entry tonight , so it was gas . Please don't follow me in just because I mentioned it , this will have a very high beta in this trade , I'm the guinea pig , well some profits are .
You could always open a "gas' thread.I think gas is poised to go higher , and I do mean higher .
The clean fundamentals could be added to the debate , but they're not in my data or figures .
US gasoline and distillate inventories were "up".Fundamental is telling me that oil price should be up (since oil inventory is down again), but technical is telling me that oil price should be down. Dilemma!!!
So I short 1 lot Crude oil mini first, and see if fundamental or technical wins.
Fundamental is telling me that oil price should be up (since oil inventory is down again), but technical is telling me that oil price should be down. Dilemma!!!
So I short 1 lot Crude oil mini first, and see if fundamental or technical wins.
Gas is massively undervalued IMO. I've posted the reasons before but essentially it's highly geographically concentrated in a very few countries and it's long term use is as automotive fuel whereas it's presently valued in most countries (including Australia) as nothing more than a substitute for coal in boilers. And even then, Australian gas is cheap by world standards especially compared to US etc.As volatile?
Gas is a beta monster when it wakes up.
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