Whilst I do think we've a lot of problems with oil, the thought that comes to mind is "markets don't move in a straight line".I don't know if any ASF members have ever been in an Oil Crisis similar to that following the 6 Day War between Israel and the Arab States. It was a time of wild fluctuations in price, pushing cars in to servos and fisticuffs even between godbotherers who would normally just say a prayer, do the hokey pokey,, hop on a mat or chant oooom.
Below is the big picture back to the GFC:Whilst I do think we've a lot of problems with oil, the thought that comes to mind is "markets don't move in a straight line".
If governments trying to get the price down and making no secret of that can't actually lower the price then that would be a massively bullish signal longer term.
Below is the big picture back to the GFC:
View attachment 140104
The present trend is very bullish and the all time record high POO can be hit in a matter of weeks given the right circumstances.
However, an interesting question to now ask is if we have entered a new paradigm: one of pervading high POO?
Right now it looks like neither the frackers nor OPEC are overly keen to add more production. Most frackers are still paying down debt so in a fashion welcome high prices, insteading of pushing out more oil for less. Meanwhile conventional drillers know that every year the cost of replenishing reserves increases, so to stay in business they need their shareholders to get decent returns and not continue their downward share price spirals.
What are we supposed to remember?
RE: "Buy cheap oil and oilers in the next 4 days"There are many signs that further sanctions on Russian energy exports inc gas in the EU are being delayed past the french election second round to ensure the reelection of Macron (wef alumni and euro deep state rep)
As such , expect these sanctions to be announced in a week, and so be followed by a jump in oil prices then.
Buy cheap oil and oilers in the next 4 days
So does massive underinvestment in the oil sector past couple years due to covid. That will be the main MACRO trends next 1-2years driving POG up, not to mention the inflation driving the USD devaluation.I must admit @frugal.rock and @CityIndex that the POO is extremely volatile.
I do not share the hope that Brent will fall to $80.
The recent chart indicates it is still rising and unless it gets lower highs and a lower low from the technical view it is still a bullish proposition.
Fundamentally the Western Europeans need more oil and gas to avoid a recession and it would seem that less will come from Russia.
The USA under the Democrats will not be able to reposition quickly and the release of their reserves is a pittance, so in terms of the Aussie Dollar, even if the Petrodollar aka $USD is worth less our petroleum assets will appreciate.
As to the Saudis, Iranians, Chinese and Russians, their supply and demand, who knows?
Uncertainty increases prices generally.
gg
For those not aware, it was a 12 year event in practice.For those of you who didn't live through the 70's, this Oil "Shock" is going to last a long, long, time.
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