Oil price discussion and analysis

[qldfrog]

Oil Prices Surge Past $113 As Shanghai Signals End Of Lockdown | OilPrice.com

Oil prices have topped $113 per barrel on optimism that China’s lockdowns are coming to an end and demand will not take a prolonged hit

oilprice.com

And if anyone read the news, the last Ukrainian troops in Mariupol have surrendered which is translated in our lolly pops woke news in

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-17/mariupol-ukraine-troop-evacuation-azovstal-steelworks/101072336.

Amazing or pathetic based on how you judge truths and media..
An evacuation ...
However heroic etc etc they have been, they had to surrender..which is better than getting annihilated..
But that is not exactly the Russian deroute the west wants and thiswill free heaps of Russian troops to carry on battle elsewhere..so no wet dream of quick end of conflict...and so no quick end to oil diesel shortage.
I believe this is the key reason of today's jump then the EU will have to stop considering boycott of oil and poo will fall.
My reason for selling ooo today.

I kept my WPL stocks..just because any strategic move by BHP in the last decade has been a flop...if they get rid of oil, it must be a great opportunity for WPL.

 

[rederob]

But that is not exactly the Russian deroute the west wants and thiswill free heaps of Russian troops to carry on battle elsewhere..so no wet dream of quick end of conflict...and so no quick end to oil diesel shortage.

Russia needs the complement of troops in Mariupol it has irrespective of the steel works as it's a major city and will fall to Ukraine in due course simply because Russia does not have the population base it needs in Ukraine to be successful.

I believe this is the key reason of today's jump then the EU will have to stop considering boycott of oil and poo will fall.
My reason for selling ooo today.

The more likely reason is that European oil and gas supplies remain constrained, and while some smaller nations might be purchasers of Russian oil by necessity, most European nations have come to the realisation that Russia cannot be trusted. Perhaps in years to come this may change, but for the time being Putin's sway will rule.
At a different end of the spectrum, Shanghai's easing of lockdowns will be stimulatory and cause a demand increase with a multiplier effect.
Further afield again, American oil stockpiles are diminishing rapidly. And given releases from their strategic reserve have barely dampened "gas" prices Biden may have to dig deeper yet into their holdings.

 

[divs4ever]

And if anyone read the news, the last Ukrainian troops in Mariupol have surrendered which is translated in our lolly pops woke news in

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-17/mariupol-ukraine-troop-evacuation-azovstal-steelworks/101072336.

Amazing or pathetic based on how you judge truths and media..
An evacuation ...
However heroic etc etc they have been, they had to surrender..which is better than getting annihilated..
But that is not exactly the Russian deroute the west wants and thiswill free heaps of Russian troops to carry on battle elsewhere..so no wet dream of quick end of conflict...and so no quick end to oil diesel shortage.
I believe this is the key reason of today's jump then the EU will have to stop considering boycott of oil and poo will fall.
My reason for selling ooo today.

I kept my WPL stocks..just because any strategic move by BHP in the last decade has been a flop...if they get rid of oil, it must be a great opportunity for WPL.

i hadn't thought of the demerger in that light , but in general have been disappointed with WPL , so far ( but probably would still hold since they are only a small holding , but BPT and NHC have been much better performers for me )

the EU MIGHT unwind the sanctions , but will Russia renew ( most of ) the contracts , Russia has increased deliveries to the east , and i am not sure how much spare capacity Russia has ( short-term )

 

[divs4ever]

Russia needs the complement of troops in Mariupol it has irrespective of the steel works as it's a major city and will fall to Ukraine in due course simply because Russia does not have the population base it needs in Ukraine to be successful.

The more likely reason is that European oil and gas supplies remain constrained, and while some smaller nations might be purchasers of Russian oil by necessity, most European nations have come to the realisation that Russia cannot be trusted. Perhaps in years to come this may change, but for the time being Putin's sway will rule.
At a different end of the spectrum, Shanghai's easing of lockdowns will be stimulatory and cause a demand increase with a multiplier effect.
Further afield again, American oil stockpiles are diminishing rapidly. And given releases from their strategic reserve have barely dampened "gas" prices Biden may have to dig deeper yet into their holdings.

they are had better be satisfied with Putin , Lavarov and Medvedev are much more hawkish ( and i bet there aren't many doves in the rest of the Duma , either ) some are saying the most likely reason to bump Putin in Russia , is because he is too SOFT

 

[Smurf1976]

From my various reading in regards to Russia and noting this is referring to the pre-war situation:

Russian crude oil production unlikely to see further growth due to ageing fields and insufficient investment. Future production trend expected to be flat to down and this is supported by official Russian government projections as well as various analysts.

At present, gas fields linked to the EU and nearby markets are in no way connected to fields linked to China. That is, Russia does not have an internal pipeline system linking the two. New gas pipelines to China are being accompanied by internal linking of the production zones within Russia to overcome this constraint, thus enabling gas previously supplied to the EU to be directed to China instead once it's built.

Put those two together and it looks to me that China has shored up its supply of oil and gas via deals with Russia and is going to be top priority going forward. Anything offered to others over the long term will just be the diminishing leftovers.

Short term the price could do anything.

Longer term there seem to be more wanting oil than there's likely to be supply available and of particular consequence is supply which is sold on open markets. If it's locked up under contract well then you can't buy it at any price.....

 

[divs4ever]

am not sure Russian investment in new projects and infrastructure will continue to decline BUT if it does ramp up i do not see the production increase to move the needle much and mostly likely China and India would inhale any increase easily

BTW it is probably in Chinese ( and Indian ) interests to help build energy pipelines to the factories/power plants

but contracts v. spot ??

factor in 'any price ' is unlikely to be helped near-term by increased production OR reduced demand

AND Roubles/Rupees/Yuan are liable to be a more stable cross-trade currencies

 

[Smurf1976]

but contracts v. spot ??

factor in 'any price '

Another example of this concept is India's wheat export ban. Offer as much money as you like but it's not for sale.

A few months ago Indonesia temporarily did that with coal to shore up domestic supplies.

USA banned crude oil exports constantly from 1975 to 2015 with only minor exceptions as another example of that. Not that they had much oil to sell, but nonetheless exports were banned as such.

I expect we're going to see a lot more of this going forward. Resource nationalism has been rising for years and the Russia - Ukraine war has given it another push.

 

[waterbottle]

United States To Release Venezuela From Some Oil Sanctions | OilPrice.com

Washington will start to relax restrictions placed on U.S.-based oil company Chevron with regards to its crude business in sanctioned Venezuela

oilprice.com

US making exceptions for Venezuelan oil

EU could combine tariffs on Russian oil with embargo, Yellen says

The European Union could combine import tariffs on Russian oil with the phased oil embargo it is trying to put in place to shrink Russia's energy revenues, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

The US now conceding that a Russian oil ban won't work and is suggesting tarrifs instead!

 

[qldfrog]

Interesting article i think

Failure To Implement Russian Oil Ban Could Send Oil Crashing To $65 | OilPrice.com

Lack of internal support for a full EU embargo on Russian crude oil may take out one of the key fear factors for oil, which may send prices crashing back to $65 per barrel

oilprice.com

 

[Telamelo]

And if anyone read the news, the last Ukrainian troops in Mariupol have surrendered which is translated in our lolly pops woke news in

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-17/mariupol-ukraine-troop-evacuation-azovstal-steelworks/101072336.

Amazing or pathetic based on how you judge truths and media..
An evacuation ...
However heroic etc etc they have been, they had to surrender..which is better than getting annihilated..
But that is not exactly the Russian deroute the west wants and thiswill free heaps of Russian troops to carry on battle elsewhere..so no wet dream of quick end of conflict...and so no quick end to oil diesel shortage.
I believe this is the key reason of today's jump then the EU will have to stop considering boycott of oil and poo will fall.
My reason for selling ooo today.

I kept my WPL stocks..just because any strategic move by BHP in the last decade has been a flop...if they get rid of oil, it must be a great opportunity for WPL.

N

Interesting article i think

Failure To Implement Russian Oil Ban Could Send Oil Crashing To $65 | OilPrice.com

Lack of internal support for a full EU embargo on Russian crude oil may take out one of the key fear factors for oil, which may send prices crashing back to $65 per barrel

oilprice.com

No chance I think of oil price crashing that low not in the foreseeable future - Ukraine war ain't stopping anytime soon as believe in fact going to spread to neighbouring NATO backed countries instead - I still think Putin will use nuclear weapons at some stage. Just my opinion of course.

 

[qldfrog]

N

No chance I think of oil price crashing that low not in the foreseeable future - Ukraine war ain't stopping anytime soon as believe in fact going to spread to neighbouring NATO backed countries instead - I still think Putin will use nuclear weapons at some stage. Just my opinion of course.

US pushing for it.
I expect tactical nuke if std army is not enough..the reason i would have oreferred a quick russian win then peace treaty with neutral country wo Donbass/Crimea.now it is war till the last Ukrainian alive, and maybe European..
And that's hoping the software for balistic missiles from Russia NATO and China do not have bugs
how do you wage war but let road and rail access bring neighbouring weapons and soldiers in ukraine...soon the hard core Russian hawks will take countrol..it would be naive to think there are no special forces involved from the west either
Anyway i wait for poo fall before replaying dame buy sell game on fake news

clever for them dumb as fxck for EU but EU is US muppet, unelected, cronysm and narrative.

 

[divs4ever]

United States To Release Venezuela From Some Oil Sanctions | OilPrice.com

Washington will start to relax restrictions placed on U.S.-based oil company Chevron with regards to its crude business in sanctioned Venezuela

oilprice.com

US making exceptions for Venezuelan oil

EU could combine tariffs on Russian oil with embargo, Yellen says

The European Union could combine import tariffs on Russian oil with the phased oil embargo it is trying to put in place to shrink Russia's energy revenues, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

The US now conceding that a Russian oil ban won't work and is suggesting tarrifs instead!

well tariffs won't effect Russia , it normally results on being a tax on the consumer
and the oil/gas has ready buyers outside the 'unfriendly nations ' bloc

now if China placed tariffs on Australian ( say ) iron ore or wine that would be uncomfortable for Australia and Chinese customers ( but a windfall for the Chinese government )

now regarding Venezuela i am surprised that Russia has not already ignored those sanctions and started bring the badly scarred Venezuela into the India/China/Russia/North Korea group of 'rogue nations' ( that are trading outside the US dollar )

 

[waterbottle]

N

No chance I think of oil price crashing that low not in the foreseeable future - Ukraine war ain't stopping anytime soon as believe in fact going to spread to neighbouring NATO backed countries instead - I still think Putin will use nuclear weapons at some stage. Just my opinion of course.

The war doesn't have to be over for oil to crash. Though the threats of an oil ban do.
The current state of play is that political rhetoric re: Russian oil ban is receding from both EU and US sides and more importantly, extra supply is coming online (Venezuela, increased US shale rig counts + potential Iran nuclear deal), so interruptions to supply are unlikely...

 

[over9k]

Everything I've read (from some very smart people) suggests that their infrastructure is simply going to crumble now as there's nobody left to maintain it.

 

[Smurf1976]

Everything I've read (from some very smart people) suggests that their infrastructure is simply going to crumble now as there's nobody left to maintain it.

And even if there was someone to maintain it, they were maxed out anyway:

Russia may have passed peak oil output

Russian oil production might never recover to pre-coronavirus levels, the country’s Energy Ministry ...

thebarentsobserver.com

Note the date of this is 12 April 2021 so well before the war.

Russian oil production might never recover to pre-coronavirus levels, the country’s Energy Ministry has forecast

In the scenario labeled most probable, the Energy Ministry predicts Russia’s oil output will grow over the rest of the decade — but fail to hit the record output of 2019, with production hitting a post-coronavirus peak of 11.1 million barrels a day in 2029 before decreasing to 9.4 million barrels a day by 2035.

In its most optimistic scenario, the Energy Ministry expects production to pass pre-coronavirus levels, peaking in 2030 at 12.8 million barrels a day before starting to decline. In every scenario presented, the Energy Ministry said Russian oil production had either already peaked, or would hit its maximum level within the next decade,

So they were struggling anyway. Now add the effects of the war, sanctions and so on and it's game over for Russia as a source of oil supply growth. The only question is how rapidly it contracts.

 

[over9k]

And even if there was someone to maintain it, they were maxed out anyway:

Russia may have passed peak oil output

Russian oil production might never recover to pre-coronavirus levels, the country’s Energy Ministry ...

thebarentsobserver.com

Note the date of this is 12 April 2021 so well before the war.







So they were struggling anyway. Now add the effects of the war, sanctions and so on and it's game over for Russia as a source of oil supply growth. The only question is how rapidly it contracts.

This is where seasonality comes in. Something tells me we're going to see a repeat of last winter (northern hemisphere winter) but far worse when the cold wrecks everything and it just stays wrecked.

 

[rederob]

Manipulation or madness?

With a $5 trading range each 5 minutes in the past few hours, WTI oil's price is seriously different to normal.
I will just watch and wait to see if the downtrend is locking in, or if the longer-term bull trend will win out.

 

[frugal.rock]

Manipulation or madness?
View attachment 141877
With a $5 trading range each 5 minutes in the past few hours, WTI oil's price is seriously different to normal.
I will just watch and wait to see if the downtrend is locking in, or if the longer-term bull trend will win out.

Looks like data/chart error?
Like the long bars are on a different price scale to the chart.
WTI futures. 5 minute and 30 minute.
I note your chart is CFD's.

 

[divs4ever]

Manipulation or madness?
View attachment 141877
With a $5 trading range each 5 minutes in the past few hours, WTI oil's price is seriously different to normal.
I will just watch and wait to see if the downtrend is locking in, or if the longer-term bull trend will win out.

probably futures/options action ( stress ) remember this is oil .. the stuff that went to negative $US 43 a barrel not that long back

i would say one or more cornered sellers but not yet totally trapped so am guessing there are still some genuine buyers ( willing to take delivery , like say the US Strategic Reserve )

 

[Mohammed Hazabig'un]

U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Act: 576 Cons: Prev.: 563

U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
Act: 728 Cons: Prev.: 714