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After looking at my chart this weekend I agree with you Rob. I have been fiddling with volumes as an indicator of future price direction. When there is high volume at either the top or bottom of the price it appears to cause a reversal in the price. I am looking at this concept closely. I see the identical thing on gold this week as well. Perhaps gold and oil are now in for a spell of falling prices. I see a massive volume spike at the bottom price of the S&P 500. I am wondering if this is going to be a total reversal for the stock market or just a dead cat bounce for the S&P et al?A fall back to support is more likely in the medium term unless things in eastern Europe flare up.
...Or unless Putin decides to dump shiploads of oil at whatever price he decides is fair. I think he mentioned $70 to $80 ( I think, could be wrong). China appears to be willing to trade with Russia, correct me if I am wrong but I think China is a massive consumer of oil and would potentially influence the price if they traded with Russia at an agreed price of say $75. It is all very interesting.So if Russian exports were to stop then we get some combination of inventory drawdown and price rising to the point where it kills demand. At least we do unless someone's sitting on more spare capacity than is generally accepted to be the case and is willing to use it.
With SWIFT not available to Russia nobody will be able to pay for their oil via conventional means....Or unless Putin decides to dump shiploads of oil at whatever price he decides is fair. I think he mentioned $70 to $80 ( I think, could be wrong). China appears to be willing to trade with Russia, correct me if I am wrong but I think China is a massive consumer of oil and would potentially influence the price if they traded with Russia at an agreed price of say $75. It is all very interesting.
A thought I've had for quite some time now is that we'll see countries seeking to lock in supplies of scarce raw materials and in doing so those commodities are for practical purposes no longer on the market. That is, they are not for sale to others at any price unless both parties to the contract agree which they'll only do in the context of any surplus they have, that being the point to secure their own supply first and foremost..Or unless Putin decides to dump shiploads of oil at whatever price he decides is fair. I think he mentioned $70 to $80 ( I think, could be wrong). China appears to be willing to trade with Russia, correct me if I am wrong but I think China is a massive consumer of oil and would potentially influence the price if they traded with Russia at an agreed price of say $75. It is all very interesting.
Another practical observation is that looking at history, when any country with a significant oil production industry went to crap one thing that always happens is oil production volume falls in a heap.With SWIFT not available to Russia nobody will be able to pay for their oil via conventional means.
My understanding is there's been quite a bit of pressure applied to the companies on two similar fronts.Grateful for others to find better reasons than this because I can't make sense of it.
my long-term strategy with commodities has been to determine what minimum production is and buy it with your farken ears back at or near the price.Crikey!
I have never bought an Oil share in my life because it is so closely manipulated by a FEW
Who needs to be MANIPULATED? Certainly Not me!
IMHO
MANIPULATED markets can always pull the carpets from under you without any warning
AND often do !
OIL Buyers be WARNED
"Safety at Sea is Parramount"
Oil is manipulated but it's about as open and visible as it gets so far as that manipulation is concerned.I have never bought an Oil share in my life because it is so closely manipulated by a FEW
In September 2019, the U.S. sanctioned tanker company Cosco Dalian, a division of Chinese shipping giant Cosco, for carrying Iranian crude. The sanctions only covered the 20 tankers owned by Cosco Dalian, but that didn’t matter. As a precaution, charterers shunned the entire 150-tanker fleet of the Cosco parent, causing tanker spot rates to spike.
Shipping execs don’t just refuse vessels or cargoes based on what’s definitely sanctionable. They do so based on what they believe might possibly be sanctioned now or later. Sanctions are written in precise language, but they’re messy in practice.
That precept is now on full display. Sanctions have yet to specifically target Russian energy exports or (non-dual-use, i.e., non-military) containerized goods, but that doesn’t matter. Many tanker owners and container liner operators are preemptively pulling out of Russia.
On Tuesday, MSC, Maersk and CMA CGM — the top three liner companies in the world — temporarily suspended Russian bookings. Yang Ming, the ninth largest, suspended Russian bookings on Wednesday; ONE, the sixth largest, on Sunday; and Hapag-Lloyd, fifth largest, on Thursday. These six carriers control 62% of global capacity, according to Alphaliner data.
The world’s largest container lines are dropping Russia “to manage sanctions risk but also perhaps manage reputational risk,” said Michelle Linderman, partner of law firm Crowell & Moring, during a panel presented by shipping association BIMCO on Tuesday. “Do they want to be seen as supporting Russia? Or are they going to say at this moment, while this is going on, we don’t want to go anywhere near there.”
The tanker sector is seeing the same pattern of behavior among shipowners and operators. Many are refusing to load Russian oil cargoes even though sanctions don’t bar them from doing so.
“Few owners are now willing to transport Russian oil, resulting in an undersupply of ships [at Russian export terminals],” said Clarksons Platou Securities.
Excellent.Sanctions on Russia have deliberately stayed away from oil, gas and soft commodities, but traders’ refusal to touch Russian goods could cause big dislocations in global markets.
On Wednesday night an oil trading giant called Trafigura Group offered to sell a cargo of the Russian Urals oil at a discount of $US18.60 ($25.50) a barrel to the Brent Crude benchmark, which sits at about $US113 ($155) a barrel at present, with futures sitting near 10-year highs.
A report in Bloomberg described the discount as being the biggest ever seen in oil markets. But the cargo drew no bids. Zero. Nada. Nothing.
Another problem is actually moving Russian oil around, with a large number of tanker owners simply refusing to load Russian cargoes, at least until the impact of financial sanctions becomes clearer. The number of ships booked to load cargoes in March is reportedly less than a quarter of the number at the same time last month.....
Always hold a few oil shares. For same reason, petrol up and pay a bit more to fill tank but, hey, aren't those BPT, WPL shares looking pretty.Excellent.
If I want to know the direction of Po0 I just check my local bowser.
Similar to the weather and sticking your head out the window.
Bowser is a leading indicator of POI.
My thoughts as well.Always hold a few oil shares. For same reason, petrol up and pay a bit more to fill tank but, hey, aren't those BPT, WPL shares looking pretty.
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